ECONOMICS OF TRUMP S TAX PLAN: CASE STUDY OF REPEALING SALT DEDUCTION
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1 ECONOMICS OF TRUMP S TAX PLAN: CASE STUDY OF REPEALING SALT DEDUCTION Presented by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
2 Why Is Tax Policy Important? Demand-Side After-tax income spending Ripple effects on GDP and jobs Supply-Side How much to work How much to invest State level: Where to live / locate a business [Janet Yellen at National Economists Club: supply-side Capital Formation and Labor Force Participation to increase GDP Growth Potential] Fiscal: impacts on national and state budgets
3 Tax Reform Proposal Corporate Lower corporate tax rate to 20% Repatriate profits Personal Lower and simplify marginal tax rates Increase standard deduction Eliminate many itemized deductions Includes state & local tax (SALT) deduction
4 Static Breakdown Source: Tax Policy Center
5 REMI Analysis REMI s PI+ and Tax-PI are the industry standards for regional macroeconomic, demographic and dynamic fiscal analysis of public policy and economic development projects. Washington: Aerospace tax credit analysis Texas: Statutory impact analysis requirement for appropriations legislation Arkansas: Big River Steel manufacturing facility analysis Maryland: Corporate tax rate reduction analysis North Carolina: Medicaid expansion analysis
6 SALT Deduction
7 Background Nearly 44 million Americans filed SALT deductions in 2014 Different states make different contributions California and New York filed nearly 30% of total SALT deductions in 2014 The states in green filed 12%
8 Background The SALT deduction is composed of three parts Personal income tax Real estate tax Sales tax Mix of taxes varies from state to state
9 Analysis Simplified tax reform scenario Remove SALT deductions Use 2014 IRS data Budget-neutral: offset with income tax decrease Split among states by share of income
10 Analysis Outline State-level economic impacts Migratory responses Fiscal impacts
11 State-Level Impacts Net increase in personal taxes in CT lowers after-tax income
12 State-Level Impacts This lowers consumption spending
13 State-Level Impacts which decreases Gross State Product (GSP)
14 State-Level Impacts and employment in the state
15 State-Level Impacts Impacts ameliorated somewhat by lower prices
16 State-Level Impacts Contrast with increase in TX after-tax income
17 State-Level Impacts Increase in TX GSP
18 Migratory Responses CT s high taxes incentivize people to move away
19 Migratory Responses to low-tax states like TX
20 Migratory Responses Economic migration across U.S.
21 Fiscal Impacts Driven by state economic impacts and migration Zoom in on CT fiscal impacts Use Tax-PI Account for migration patterns from U.S. model Calibrate the state budget using historical data
22 State level: Connecticut Background State income tax ranges from % Combined state and local sales tax: 6.35% Property tax: 1.63% CT has 2nd highest proportion of people filing SALT deduction
23 Tax-PI Analytical Approach Tax/Spending Change Change in tax base and spending determinants Direct or static fiscal impact Observed behavioral response Change in business and personal incentives Conventional analysis of proposed legislation does not incorporate effects on the economy trying to account for such effects may increase the likelihood of producing an accurate answer. Keith Hall, Director, Congressional Budget Office
24 Dynamic vs. Static Example: Raise Corporate Tax by $200M Static: accounting, arithmetic calculation Dynamic: factors in economic response Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
25 State level: Connecticut Calibrating the budget
26 State level: Connecticut Tax base falls due to: Decreased production Decreased employment Lower prices (help citizens, hurt budget) Out-migration
27 State level: Connecticut Revenue falls
28 State level: Connecticut Breakdown of revenue declines
29 Political Realities Political considerations for passing legislation: Broad geographic coalition required State and/or district level macroeconomic rationale essential The current plan only makes it possible to cut taxes for other states by using New York and California as the piggybank. - N.Y. Gov. Andrew Cuomo How to Get to U.S. House Results (New York Times graphic) SALT repeal already modified to cover property tax only, not income or sales taxes
30 Conclusion SALT deduction one of largest federal tax expenditures Differences in state tax rates create winners and losers Dynamic modeling with REMI PI+ and Tax-PI estimates national economic and state fiscal impacts Economic migration from high-tax states to low-tax states Revenue and employment loss in high-tax states How do high-tax states respond? Preempt legislation Lower taxes Non-tax incentives
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