How Solar-Plus-Storage Can Re-Align Customer and Utility Values. Presented by Brock Mosovsky and Cory Welch
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1 How Solar-Plus-Storage Can Re-Align Customer and Utility Values Presented by Brock Mosovsky and Cory Welch
2 Customer Perspective Mid-day solar gen has significant value Image Source:
3 Utility Perspective Mid-day solar gen presents significant risk Image Source:
4 How Can Residential Solar + Storage Systems Help? Shift Energy Provide dispatchable solar gen Open additional value streams BUT Residential customers will install storage systems only if there is value in doing so!
5 Questions Explored in this Talk What does optimal solar + storage system operation look like? How does the value of storage depend on: Differences between time-of-use rates? Demand charges? Export compensation rates? Under what conditions are residential solar + storage systems cost-effective?
6 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 Load (kw) Solar PV Only Significant mid-day over-generation Mon Tues Wed Thurs Hour of Day Raw Cust Dmd Solar Gen Image Source: Navigant Analysis
7 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 Load (kw) Solar PV Only Net load goes negative: export to grid Mon Tues Wed Thurs Hour of Day Raw Cust Dmd Solar Gen Net Cust Dmd Image Source: Navigant Analysis
8 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 Load (kw) Solar PV + Storage Storage charges during over-generation Mon Tues Wed Thurs Hour of Day Raw Cust Dmd Solar Gen Storage Charge Image Source: Navigant Analysis
9 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 2 Load (kw) Solar PV + Storage, Demand Charge Storage discharges to reduce peak demand Mon Tues Wed Thurs Hour of Day Raw Cust Dmd Solar Gen Storage Charge Net Cust Dmd Image Source: Navigant Analysis
10 Load (kw) Solar PV + Storage, Time-of-Use Rate Storage reduces demand during the time-ofuse peak period On Peak :00 4:00 6:00 8: :00 14:00 16:00 18: :00 Hour of Day Raw Cust Dmd Solar Gen Storage Charge Net Cust Dmd Export to Grid Image Source: Navigant Analysis
11 Load (kw) Solar PV + Storage, Time-of-Use Rate Peak demand is only marginally reduced, since there is no demand charge. On Peak :00 4:00 6:00 8: :00 14:00 16:00 18: :00 Hour of Day Raw Cust Dmd Solar Gen Storage Charge Net Cust Dmd Export to Grid Image Source: Navigant Analysis
12 What/Where is the Value? Valuation assumptions: Full system cost incurred: no incentives Revenue neutrality against raw customer load A customer with no solar or storage should have the same annual bill under each TOU and demand charge scenario. 5.5 kw solar system, 3.3 kw/7kwh battery 20 year lifetime, replace battery at year 10
13 Electricity Rate Scenarios Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) TOU Peak Rate Multipliers 1 (Peak / Off-Peak) Demand Charge 2 ($/kw-month) Export Comp. Rate (% of Retail) $ $0 100% $ $2 60% $ $10 20% 5 $20 1 Avg. On-peak Illinois periods: weekdays residential only, 10 AM-8 retail PM in summer, rate 7 AM-11 in 2014 AM and was 5 PM-9 PM $0.119 in winter 2 Monthly demand charge assessed based on highest hourly demand in each month Source: EIA Form 861 Annual Electric Power Industry Report
14 Flat Rate, Net Metering Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) TOU Peak Rate Multipliers 1 (Peak / Off-Peak) Demand Charge 2 ($/kw-month) Export Comp. Rate (% of Retail) $ $0 100% $ $2 60% $ $10 20% 5 $20 1 On-peak periods: weekdays only, 10 AM-8 PM in summer, 7 AM-11 AM and 5 PM-9 PM in winter 2 Monthly demand charge assessed based on highest hourly demand in each month
15 Annual System Value ($) Flat Rate, Net Metering PV Only and PV+Storage have equal value $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) PV Only PV+Storage
16 Flat Rate, Net Metering Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) TOU Peak Rate Multipliers 1 (Peak / Off-Peak) Demand Charge 2 ($/kw-month) Export Comp. Rate (% of Retail) $ $0 100% $ $2 60% $ $10 20% 5 $20 1 On-peak periods: weekdays only, 10 AM-8 PM in summer, 7 AM-11 AM and 5 PM-9 PM in winter 2 Monthly demand charge assessed based on highest hourly demand in each month
17 Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) TOU Peak Rate Multipliers 1 (Peak / Off-Peak) Demand Charge 2 ($/kw-month) Export Comp. Rate (% of Retail) $ $0 100% $ $2 60% $ $10 20% 5 $20 1 On-peak periods: weekdays only, 10 AM-8 PM in summer, 7 AM-11 AM and 5 PM-9 PM in winter 2 Monthly demand charge assessed based on highest hourly demand in each month
18 Annual System Value ($) Flat Rate, Net Metering $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) PV Only PV+Storage
19 Annual System Value ($) Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp Value falls for both systems, but much more so for PV Only $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) PV Only PV+Storage
20 Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) TOU Peak Rate Multipliers 1 (Peak / Off-Peak) Demand Charge 2 ($/kw-month) Export Comp. Rate (% of Retail) $ $0 100% $ $2 60% $ $10 20% 5 $20 1 On-peak periods: weekdays only, 10 AM-8 PM in summer, 7 AM-11 AM and 5 PM-9 PM in winter 2 Monthly demand charge assessed based on highest hourly demand in each month
21 Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp, $10/kW Demand Chg Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) TOU Peak Rate Multipliers 1 (Peak / Off-Peak) Demand Charge 2 ($/kw-month) Export Comp. Rate (% of Retail) $ $0 100% $ $2 60% $ $10 20% 5 $20 1 On-peak periods: weekdays only, 10 AM-8 PM in summer, 7 AM-11 AM and 5 PM-9 PM in winter 2 Monthly demand charge assessed based on highest hourly demand in each month
22 Annual System Value ($) Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) PV Only PV+Storage
23 Annual System Value ($) Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp, $10/kW Demand Chg PV+Storage value increases, PV Only value decreases $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) PV Only PV+Storage
24 Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp, $10/kW Demand Chg Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) TOU Peak Rate Multipliers 1 (Peak / Off-Peak) Demand Charge 2 ($/kw-month) Export Comp. Rate (% of Retail) $ $0 100% $ $2 60% $ $10 20% 5 $20 1 On-peak periods: weekdays only, 10 AM-8 PM in summer, 7 AM-11 AM and 5 PM-9 PM in winter 2 Monthly demand charge assessed based on highest hourly demand in each month
25 Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp, $10/kW Demand Chg, 5x TOU Mult Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) TOU Peak Rate Multipliers 1 (Peak / Off-Peak) Demand Charge 2 ($/kw-month) Export Comp. Rate (% of Retail) $ $0 100% $ $2 60% $ $10 20% 5 $20 1 On-peak periods: weekdays only, 10 AM-8 PM in summer, 7 AM-11 AM and 5 PM-9 PM in winter 2 Monthly demand charge assessed based on highest hourly demand in each month
26 Annual System Value ($) Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp, $10/kW Demand Chg $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) PV Only PV+Storage
27 Annual System Value ($) Flat Rate, 20% of Retail Export Comp, $10/kW Demand Chg, 5x TOU Mult Value increases for both systems, but more so for PV+Storage $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 Base Electricity Rate ($/kwh) PV Only PV+Storage
28 How do System Costs Affect Value for the Customer? Value varies with electricity rates, but costs do not Bill Ratio = Annual Bill With System Annual Bill Without System Bill Ratios less than one are cost-effective Bill with system includes loan payments and O&M Financing at 6% interest, $0 down payment
29 A Cost-Effective Scenario 2016 solar PV and battery storage costs $0.40/kWh energy rate (e.g., Hawaii) Export compensation at 20% of retail
30 Bill Ratio (Lower is More Cost Effective) A Cost-Effective Scenario 1.00 PV+Storage more cost effective than PV Only at high TOU peak rate multipliers TOU Peak Rate Multiplier PV Only PV+Storage
31 Bill Ratio (Lower is More Cost Effective) A Cost-Effective Scenario 50% 2016 Battery Costs 1.00 At lower battery costs, economics improve considerably TOU Peak Rate Multiplier PV Only PV+Storage
32 Conclusions Solar+storage can be more cost effective than solar alone, given the proper electricity rates. Rate structure components interact in a complex way to prescribe optimal solar+storage system operation. With an understanding of how rate components contribute to system value, utilities can design rates that shape solar+storage dispatch.
33 Acknowledgements Thanks to: All of you in the audience for participating AESP for hosting a wonderful event Navigant for financial support
34 Questions? 1 t-e S P ASSOCIATlON OF ENERGY SERVICES PROFESSIONALS
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