Abstract of the Federal Ministry of Finance s Monthly Report

Transcription

1 Federal budget and fiscal policy figures Abstract of the Federal Ministry of Finance s Monthly Report April 2015 Federal budget and fiscal policy figures Federal budget trends up to and including March Trends in federal expenditure by function 4 Trends in federal expenditure by economic category 6 Trends in federal revenue 8 Trends in general government tax revenue 10 Tax revenue in March Federal borrowing and market resources 14 Guarantees 15 Publication schedule of the Monthly Reports 15 Key dates on the fiscal policy agenda 16 List of diagrams Calculation of the fiscal balance 3 Federal expenditure by function 5 Federal expenditure by selected economic category 7 Federal tax revenue (by selected category) 9-1 -

2 Federal budget trends up to and including March 2015 Federal budget trends up to and including March 2015 Trends in the federal budget Actual 2014 Estimated Actual 2 as of March 2015 Expenditure ( bn) Year-on-year change in % (year to date) +1.7 Revenue ( bn) Year-on-year change in % (year to date) +7.7 Tax revenue ( bn) Year-on-year change in % (year to date) +6.0 Fiscal balance ( bn) Deficit financing through: Cash resources ( bn) Revenue from coin ( bn) Net borrowing/current financial market balance 3 ( bn) Government draft of the supplementary budget as at 18 March As per accounts. (-) debt repayment; (+) borrowing Expenditure trends Federal expenditure up to and including March 2015 amounted to 81.5bn, an increase of 1.4bn (+1.7%) over the same period last year. However, it can be assumed that the expenditure trend in early 2014 was dampened as a result of interim budget management in 2014, thereby distorting the year-on-year comparison. Revenue trends Federal revenue up to and including March 2015 totalled 68.0bn, which was 4.8bn (+7.7%) higher than the total for the same period of Federal tax receipts totalled 60.1bn, up 3.4bn (+6.0%) on the year. Other administrative revenue, at 7.9bn, came in 1.5bn above the result for March Fiscal balance The fiscal balance for the year to date stood at bn in March However, the net borrowing figures at this early point in the year are of limited indicative value, partly because the cash funds available over the course of the fiscal year are subject to strong fluctuations. It will only be possible to make a reliable forecast later in the year regarding the expected fiscal balance at the end of

3 Federal budget trends up to and including March

4 Federal budget trends up to and including March 2015 Trends in federal expenditure by function Actual Estimated 1 Actual January to March 2014 m Share in % m Share in % m January to March 2015 Year-onyear change in % (year to date) General public services 69, , ,758 16, Economic cooperation and development 6, , ,733 1, Defence 32, , ,542 7, Government, central administration 13, , ,907 4, Revenue administration 3, , Education, science, research, cultural affairs Support for school and university students and training programme participants Science, research and development outside of higher education institutions Social security, family youth affairs, labour market policy Social insurance including unemployment insurance 18, , ,820 4, , , , , , ,587 1, , , ,665 44, , , ,681 31, Labour market policy 32, , ,198 8, of which: Unemployment benefit II under Book II of the Social Code Unemployment Benefit II, government housing and heating allowances under Book II of the Social Code 19, , ,288 5, , , ,125 1, Family assistance, welfare services, etc. 7, , ,915 2, Social benefits for the consequences of war and political events 2, , Health, environment, sport, recreation 1, , Housing, regional planning and local community services Housing, home ownership savings premium 2, , , , Food, agriculture and forestry Energy and water supply, trade and services 4, , ,647 1, Regional support measures Mining, manufacturing and construction 1, , ,255 1, Transport and communication 15, , ,392 2, Roads 7, , , Railways and public transport 4, , Financial management 33, , ,080 11, Interest expenditure 25, , ,385 8, Total expenditure 295, , ,119 81, Government draft of the supplementary budget as at 18 March

5 Federal budget trends up to and including March

6 Federal budget trends up to and including March 2015 Trends in federal expenditure by economic category Actual Estimated 1 Actual January to March 2014 m Share in % m Share in % m January to March 2015 Year-onyear change in % (year to date) Consumption expenditure 266, , ,141 77, Personnel expenditure 29, , ,835 8, Salary payments 21, , ,589 5, Pensions 7, , ,246 2, Current material expenditure 23, , ,220 4, Non-personnel expenditure 1, , Military procurement 8, , ,230 1, Other 13, , ,763 2, Interest expenditure 25, , ,385 8, Current grants and subsidies 187, , ,559 55, to public administration 21, , ,642 5, to other sectors 166, , ,916 49, including: Private enterprises 25, , ,691 6, Pensions, assistance etc. 28, , ,602 7, Social insurance funds 104, , ,773 32, Other asset transfers Investment expenditure 29, , ,977 4, Financial assistance 21, , ,153 3, Grants and subsidies 15, , ,964 3, Loans, guarantees 1, , Acquisition of holdings; capital contributions 4, X Fixed asset investment 7, , Construction measures 6, , Acquisition of movable assets , Acquisition of real property General reduction/increase in expenditure X Total expenditure 295, , ,119 81, Government draft of the supplementary budget as at 18 March

7 Federal budget trends up to and including March

8 Federal budget trends up to and including March 2015 Trends in federal revenue Actual Estimated 1 Actual January to March 2014 m Share in % m Share in % m January to March 2015 Year-onyear change in % (year to date) I. Tax revenue 270, , ,706 60, Federal share of joint taxes: 222, , ,892 54, Revenue from personal and corporate income taxes (incl. final withholding tax on interest and capital gains)) of which: 112, , ,853 27, Wages tax 71, , ,008 16, Assessed income tax 19, , ,018 5, Non-assessed taxes on earnings 8, , ,503 1, Final withholding tax on interest and capital gains 3, , ,519 1, Corporation tax 10, , ,805 2, Value added taxes (VAT) 107, , ,999 27, Trade tax apportionment 1, , Energy duty 39, , ,675 4, Tobacco duty 14, , ,477 2, Solidarity surcharge 15, , ,577 3, Insurance tax 12, , ,642 5, Electricity duty 6, , ,550 1, Motor vehicle tax 8, , ,861 2, Nuclear fuel tax , X Spirits duties 2, , Coffee duty 1, , Aviation tax Supplementary grants to Länder -10, , ,565-2, EU GNI own resources -22, , ,758-8, EU VAT own resources -4, , ,684-1, Grants to Länder for public transport -7, , ,825-1, Grants to Länder for motor vehicle tax and HGV toll -8, , ,248-2, II. Other revenue 24, , ,460 7, Revenue from economic activity 6, , ,546 3, Interest revenue Loan repayments, holdings, privatisation revenue 2, , , Total revenue 295, , ,166 68, Government draft of the supplementary budget as at 18 March

9 Federal budget trends up to and including March

10 Trends in general government tax revenue Trends in general government tax revenue Current-year trends in tax revenue (excluding local authority taxes) Joint taxes March Year-onyear change January to March Year-onyear change 2015 estimates 4 Year-onyear change in m in % in m in % in m in % Wages tax 2 12, , , Assessed income tax 12, , , Non-assessed taxes on earnings , , Final withholding tax on interest and capital gains , , Corporation tax 5, , , Value added taxes (VAT) 14, , , Trade tax apportionment , Increased trade tax apportionment , Total joint taxes 47, , , Federal taxes Energy duty 3, , , Tobacco duty 1, , , Spirits duty incl. alcopops duty , Insurance tax , , Electricity duty , , Motor vehicle tax , , Aviation tax Nuclear fuel duty 0 X 352 X 1, Solidarity surcharge 1, , , Other federal taxes , Total federal taxes 8, , , Länder taxes Inheritance tax , , Real property transfer tax , , Betting and lottery tax , Beer duty Other Länder taxes Total Länder taxes 1, , , EU own resources Customs duty , , VAT-based own resources , , GNI-based own resources 1, , , Total EU own resources 2, , , Federation 3 26, , , Länder 3 24, , , EU 2, , , Local authorities share of income tax and value added tax Total tax revenue (excluding local authority taxes) 4, , , , , , Methodology: Total cash income from the various taxes is recorded and allocated to the various government levels as stipulated by law. Actual tax amounts collected in the current month by individual government levels may differ from target amounts due to technical reasons. ² After deduction of child benefit refunds by the Federal Central Tax Office. 3 After supplementary grants; any discrepancies with table on federal revenue are due to methodology used. 4 Source: Working Party on Tax Revenue Estimates, November

11 Trends in general government tax revenue Tax revenue in March 2015 Tax revenue in March 2015 (excluding taxes accruing solely to local authorities) was up by 4.7% overall compared with the same period last year. Revenue from joint taxes, which has a significant effect on the total tax revenue level, also posted an increase of 4.7%. The positive trend in revenue from wages tax and assessed income tax, which was due to the economic situation, made a significant contribution to this result. Revenue from value added taxes remained roughly at the level of the same period last year. Receipts from nonassessed taxes on earnings and corporation tax declined considerably, partly as a result of oneoff effects, which had an impact on the total revenue level. Federal taxes posted moderate growth of 2.6% overall, although in the case of some federal taxes (including motor vehicle tax, electricity duty, tobacco duty and insurance tax) the marked increases were due to special factors or tax revenue shifts in relation to the previous year. The 12.1% increase in revenues from taxes accruing solely to the Länder was based mainly on a positive trend in revenues from real property transfer tax and inheritance tax. EU own resources Customs duties which accrue entirely to the EU were up by 19.5% on the year. Overall, taking into account VAT-based and GNI-based own resources, transfers of own resources to the EU rose by 8.4% compared with March Overview of the January March 2015 period In the January March 2015 period, tax receipts increased by 4.9% overall on the year. This upward trend was apparent in joint taxes, which were up by 4.1%, taxes accruing to the Federation (+6.6%), and taxes accruing to the Länder (+16.2%). Distribution among the Federation, Länder and local authorities The Federation s total tax receipts in March 2015 were up by 4.0% over March This development was driven mainly by the positive trend in joint taxes, while the limited increase in revenue from taxes accruing solely to the Federation had a dampening effect on revenue growth. However, Länder tax receipts showed somewhat stronger growth in March 2015 than federal tax receipts despite the reduction in supplementary federal grants, posting a yearon-year increase of 4.4%. Local authority revenue from joint taxes rose by 8.6%. Joint taxes Wages tax receipts continued their recent upward trend, thanks to the ongoing favourable situation on the labour market and rising wages. In March 2015, gross revenue from wages tax climbed by 5.5% on the year. Child benefit payments, which are financed from wages tax receipts and must be subtracted from this figure, increased only slightly, by 0.7% over the same month last year. As a result, cash receipts from wages tax posted a 6.8% year-on-year gain in March In the first quarter of 2015, cash receipts from wages tax were up by 6.5% over the same period of Corporation tax Corporation tax revenue is strongly influenced by tax assessment activities. In March 2015, cash receipts from corporation tax were up by 7.8% compared with March In particular, prepayments showed a dynamic upwards trend, while back-payments declined slightly. On a cumulative basis, revenue from

12 Trends in general government tax revenue corporation tax declined by 3.1% on the year in the first quarter of Assessed income tax Gross revenue from assessed income tax rose by 6.5% in March 2015 compared with the same month last year. Refunds to employees assessed for income tax, which have to be deducted from the total for gross revenue, declined by 8.4%. The increase in revenue from assessed income tax was driven mainly by an increase in prepayments compared with the previous year. On a cumulative basis, cash receipts from assessed income tax rose by 11.2% in the first quarter of 2015 over the same period last year. Non-assessed taxes on earnings Gross receipts from non-assessed taxes on earnings fell by 7.9% in March 2015 in year-onyear terms, although the result was artificially low due to a special factor. Refunds paid out by the Federal Central Tax Office rose by 32.5%. As a result, net receipts registered a decline of 16.9%. On a cumulative basis, revenue from this tax declined by 1.6% on the year in the first quarter of Final withholding tax on interest and capital gains Revenue from withholding tax on interest and capital gains posted a year-on-year gain of 7.9% in March Overall, this largely made up for lower revenue in January On a cumulative basis, revenue from this tax was down by 9.9% in the first quarter, compared with the same period last year. This absolute decline in revenue is likely to have been the result of the current low interest-rate environment, among other things. Value added taxes Revenue from value added taxes declined slightly in March 2015, dropping by 0.8% on the year. Receipts from domestic VAT fell by 1.3% compared with March 2014, whereas revenue from import VAT rose by 0.8%. Generally, revenue from value added taxes are very volatile, meaning that the March results should not be over-interpreted. Moreover, there are significant differences among the Länder in terms of VAT revenue trends. As a result, oneoff effects could have influenced the result. On a cumulative basis, VAT receipts in the first quarter were 2.6% higher than in the same period of last year. Taxes accruing to the Federation Revenue from taxes accruing solely to the Federation posted a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in March Energy duty receipts were subject to strong fluctuations in the first quarter of In March 2015, they posted a slight decline of 1.4% on the year. On a cumulative basis, revenue from energy duty was up by 0.6% in January March 2015, compared with the same period last year. With regard to motor vehicle tax, the transfer of authority for administering this tax to German customs led to temporary revenue shortfalls in the first half of The resulting low baseline figure means that the current level of growth (55.1% in March 2015 in year-on-year terms) is inflated. Part of the February 2015 revenue from tobacco duty was recorded as revenue for March, which led to exaggerated growth of 20.0% this month. Receipts from spirits duty were up by 2.8%. Revenue from the solidarity surcharge also posted an increase of 8.2%. Given that this surcharge is levied on wages tax and assessed income tax, it benefited from the strong performance of these taxes in March. Revenue from electricity duty grew by 12.5% in year-on-year terms in March However, this was the result of a base effect: The March 2014 figure was artificially low because of compensation payments to manufacturing companies subject to high electricity duty costs. Revenue from insurance tax in the first quarter of 2015 was influenced by deferred payments. On a cumulative basis, revenue from insurance tax posted an increase of 3.2% in the

13 Trends in general government tax revenue January March 2015 period. Overall, tax revenue accruing to the Federation increased by 6.6% in the first quarter of 2015 over the same period last year. Taxes accruing to the Länder Revenue from taxes accruing solely to the Länder was up by 12.1% on the year in March This result is artificially high, however, due to deferred payments in relation to fire protection tax. In addition, real property transfer tax and inheritance tax both posted high growth of 12.8% on the year. Regarding real property transfer tax, tax rate increases in some Länder, as well as an increase in real estate sales due to the economic situation and low interest rates, influenced this upward trend

14 Federal borrowing and market resources Federal borrowing and market resources Credit market funds (in m) 1 Reporting date: Increase Decrease Reporting date: 28 February March 2015 m Inflation-linked securities 67,000 2,000-69,000 Federal bonds (Bunds) 2 679,405 4, ,405 5-year federal notes (Bobls) 243, ,000 Federal savings notes 3 2, ,271 Federal treasury notes (Schaetze) 117,000 5,000 15, ,000 Treasury discount papers (Bubills) 27,006 3,506 3,997 26,515 Day bonds 1, ,155 Securitized loans 11, ,971 Other borrowing (year to date) 1, , Total credit market funds 1,150,729 1,144,905 By maturity Reporting date: Reporting date: 28 February March 2015 m Short term (up to 1 year) 186, ,714 Medium term (1 year to 4 years) 374, ,563 Long term (over 4 years) 589, ,628 Total credit market funds 1,150,729 1,144,

15 Guarantees Guarantees Guarantees Authorised amount Amount allocated as of 31 March 2015 Authorised amount as of 31 March 2014 Export credit guarantees bn Loans to foreign debtors direct foreign investment EIB loans KfW shareholding in EIF Bilateral financial cooperation projects Food stockpiling Domestic guarantees International financial institutions Treuhandanstalt successor organisations Interest compensation guarantees Guarantees for loans to Greece under the Monetary Union Financial Stability Act of 7 May Publication schedule of the Monthly Reports Publication schedule of the Monthly Reports Monthly Report Reporting period Publication date May 2015 April May 2015 June 2015 May June 2015 July2015 June July 2015 August 2015 July August 2015 September 2015 August September 2015 October 2015 September October 2015 November 2015 October November 2015 December 2015 November December

16 Key dates on the fiscal policy agenda Key dates on the fiscal policy agenda Key dates on the fiscal policy agenda April 2015 Eurogroup and informal ECOFIN 27 April 2015 German-Polish intergovernmental consultations in Warsaw May 2015 Eurogroup and ECOFIN in Brussels May 2015 Meeting of the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Dresden June 2015 Eurogroup and ECOFIN in Luxembourg June 2015 European Council in Brussels July 2015 Eurogroup and ECOFIN in Brussels