By Dr Alkis John Corres. Visiting Professor, City Law School

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1 By Dr Alkis John Corres Visiting Professor, City Law School

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3 ..and the state s obligation to maintain the integrity of the national space is spelled out in the Greek Constitution. Those travelling to and from islands, residents, Greek citizens from other parts of the country or tourists, should be able to do that while enjoying a: 1. Good service 2. Affordable cost

4 It is widely accepted in bibliography that the basic elements of a good service level are firstly: safety and frequency of service, and secondly matters such as: speed, comfort, services onboard a.s.o. Before the above come into play however, the service must be affordable!

5 ..as it makes an indirect reference to the income level of the user. Instead of trying to quantify, I have chosen to turn the question on its head and ask at what level the cost becomes unaffordable.. hence the following definition: The cost of accessing an island becomes unaffordable when it significantly impacts the traffic flows to and from the island. The affordability of a service is therefore measured via the easily quantifiable concept of isolation which itself is of course cost-dependent.

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7 MINIMIZED COST OF ACCESS => MAXIMIZED TRAFFIC FLOWS ( i.e. MINIMAL ISLAND ISOLATION, and vice versa.) Nevertheless, a. Ferry services entail costs. b. Today all costs of access are paid by island travellers, therefore, c. The cost of access is high leading to reduced traffic flows and ultimately to high island isolation. d. Island isolation is both unconstitutional and unyielding.

8 A few numbers will illustrate the case: In 2010 Greece was visited by 13 million tourists. This year we are expecting 17 million. Overall income from tourism in 2010 was circa 35 billion euros. This year the figure will be between 45 and 48 billion euros. Over 60% of those visited the islands in 2010 (8.3 million island visitors). In 2013 they will pass the 10 million mark. In 2011 the estimate of income from tourism from the islands was 21.2 billion euros. This year this number is expected to reach 28 billion.

9 A. Where would the number of tourists be if the cost of access were cut by half? B. Who should pay for the other half of that cost? A recent study financed by the Hellenic Chamber of Shipping contains some interesting findings.

10 a. A budget four persons + car, ten days holiday on a Greek island is 60% more expensive than its equivalent ashore due to ferry travel expenses. b. A reduction in the cost of access by ship by 20% - in absence of exact cross elasticity data - could lead to significant rises in island tourist numbers (2013 estimates): Α rise by 4% could mean...+1,120,000 visitors p.a. A 5% rise...+1,400,000 «Α 7% rise...+1,960,000 «Αn 8% rise...+ 2,240,000 «

11 By taking into account local income multipliers (2.18 applicable here, see Tsartas 2010): For every euro shaved off the cost of access (passenger and vehicle tickets) there are 10 euros to be made from additional spending locally. Coming back to the two questions raised earlier, one may comment as follows: The passenger numbers would probably increase by at least 1.5 million per annum. The Greek state would be wise to zero the VAT rate on tickets in view of tenfold gains.

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13 ..and the answer is NO! for the following three reasons. 1. There are grounds for further increases in island tourism, 2. The ferry companies have been making losses for the last three years, and 3. The cost of access to islands would still be too high. ONE COULD ASK HERE:HOW CAN THERE BE HIGH TICKET PRICES AND OPERATING LOSSES AT THE SAME TIME?

14 Seasonality here dovetails with the classic indivisibility of a ferry. (The cost of providing the ferry service cannot be adjusted to the number of passengers onboard.) Therefore the average cost per passenger can vary within the year between 28 and 625 euros per head, i.e.twenty two fold. ( Assuming a 50,000 euro per day costing ferry carrying 1,800 pax/day in season and 80 pax/day off season). Fuel is bought by ferry companies in small amounts and at unfavourable terms. This big cost item is also unstable, unpredictable and it has to be accommodated within a fixed price framework for the entire year.

15 Their operating costs are not known due to variance in the fuel prices, Their pricing has to be based on stochastic factors such as the average filling rate of the ferry round the year, Company income is also unpredictable due to changing economic climate and seasonality, a and on top of these.. They have to remain competitive. As a result of this short list of factors, pricing is often driven by cashflow rather than by profit considerations and it often has very little to do with break even calculations. Staying alive is the primary task in Greek coastal shipping in these days.

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17 Let us first recap: a. The cost of access is high affecting the traffic to and from the islands. b. The ferry companies are literally at sea due to multiple uncertainties, so they can neither cost or price correctly. c. Indivisibility and seasonality wreck havoc in the area of commercial operation. d. Fuel cost which can be 50% of total cost, or higher in high speed ships is also unpredictable. e. The risk of a complete breakdown of island services in Greece is more real than ever.

18 Cheaper tickets for easier access and all the good things this would bring, and Ferry companies breaking even, and making a profit in order to be sustainable QUESTION: Can this be done under today s arrangements? ANSWER: No! Therefore..

19 The system needs to improve.

20 We need to review several regimes, namely: A. The tax philosophy on tickets for passengers and vehicles. B. How ferry services are organized. C. How ships are remunerated. D. Ways to bring down ship cost. WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE OUR CONSTRAINTS Can we do something about seasonality? No Can we resolve indivisibility? No =============== Let us consider then what can be done.

21 As suggested earlier, zeroeing VAT makes good sense. Ensuring the continuity of the Greek national space should NOT FALL ON THE SHOULDERS OF ISLANDERS AND TOURISTS alone as it concerns all Greeks. Other parties should join in, given that.. The benefits from increased tourist spending are not limited to the island communities, but they spread much wider in the Greek economy, so.. ===============SUGGESTION=============== There is a strong case for wider sharing of the cost of access. A zero VAT rate is one step in the right direction. Other tax-related measures should also be considered.

22 There is no theoretical fundament to the present ferry system in Greece. This system is the outcome of decades of quick-fixes and political pressures from island communities. There has not been any attempt to rationalize it and one expensive study done in the early 2000s was quickly shelved without any explanation. Each ferry company is saddled with the problems of marketing its own tickets. ==============SUGGESTION==================== It has been recently demonstrated in a study for the Ministry of Merchant Marine that the introduction of Hub & Spoke arrangements could result to a 50% reduction in the subsidized cost of providing services to the small islands.

23 As most companies operate more than one vessel, tickets and other sources of revenue end up in the company s bank accounts from which all ship and other expenses are paid. As a result, There is extensive cross subsidization among ships within the same company. Revenue forecasting as we saw is practically impossible. Hedging against fuel price risks is not possible for small operators and it is limited to the few very large ones. ==================SUGGESTION================== I. Most, if not all, ships should be time chartered. II. III. Time charters would wipe out uncertainty from seasonality and fuel bills warranting sustainability of the services. The time charterers would issue tickets and pay for vessel hire, fuel and port expenses as in deep sea shipping.

24 Vessel manning rules should be reviewed. Ferries in Greece, unlike hotels, are obliged to employ a fixed number of hotel staff round the year. =============SUGGESTIONS============ Ferry companies should be allowed to match passenger numbers with hotel staff numbers and save on unused yet paid for services. Joint purchasing of supplies, H&M insurance, P+I cover, spare parts etc can bring down the operating cost. Company consolidation is a must to create companies with lower overhead charges per vessel. Incentives? Time charterers should try and buy together fuels and hedging at discount rates.

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