GDP, African resources & climate

Transcription

1 GDP, African resources & climate why reversing Africa s Resource Curse requires calculating natural capital accounts and ecological debt Patrick Bond, University of KwaZulu-Natal Centre for Civil Society and School of Built Environment and Development Studies, Durban presented to the Frelimo & FES Policy Forum on The Role of Ruling Parties in Promoting a Sustainable Economic Model 28 May 2014

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3 it is time to correct GDP bias (global) A genuine progress indicator corrects the bias in GDP Source: redefiningprogress.org

4 new measurements: against GDP MISSING FROM GDP: resource depletion (crucial to extractivism) air, water, and noise pollution loss of farmland and wetlands unpaid women s/community work family breakdown other social values crime Genuine Progress Indicator

5 Thabo Mbeki runs AU s High level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows from Africa

6 crime includes vast African capital flight

7 Composition of IFF (globally) 5% 35% Corruption(bribery and embezzlement of national wealth) Criminal activities(trade in drugs, weapons and people) Commercial transactions through MNCs 60% Source: Kar and Cartwright-Smith (2010)

8 Illicit Financial Flows from Africa # Country Cumulative IFFs US$ bn Share in Africa s total 1 Nigeria % 2 Egypt % 3 South Africa % 4 Morocco % 5 Angola % 6 Algeria % 7 Côte d ivoire % 8 Sudan % 9 Ethiopia % 10 Congo, Republic %

9 Illicit Financial Flows due to trade, Source: Simon Mevel, Siope Ofa & Stephen Karingi / RITD / UN-ECA

10 Illicit Financial Flows due to trade, by sector Top 10: Cumulative IFF from Africa by GTAP Sector, GTAP Sector USD Billion Metals nec (Copper & Gold and other non-ferrous metals) Oil Natural gas Minerals nec (non metalic minerals eg. Cement, gravel, plaster etc) Petroleum, coal products Crops Food products Machinery and equipment nec Wearing apparel Ferrous metals (Iron & steel) Source: Simon Mevel, Siope Ofa & Stephen Karingi / RITD / UN-ECA Total

11 Illicit Financial Flows due to trade, Source: Simon Mevel, Siope Ofa & Stephen Karingi / RITD / UN-ECA Cumulative IFF by destination

12 De Beers hurts the SA Treasury

13 Trade mispricing by just one firm, US$2.83 billion

14 the sin at the origin: capital outflows are illicit if they involve funds that were acquired illegally (through corruption, drug and human trafficking, trade mispricing, ) the sin at transfer: capital outflows are illicit if they are not properly recorded with national authorities (37 African countries: billion, constant 2010 $) the sin at hidden foreign holdings: capital held abroad is illicit if it is not reported to the authorities (most likely due to sins #1 and #2) Net transfer on debt ODA FDI Capital flight Remittances Source: Leonce Ndikumana

15 most adversely affected countries include Angola, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe Blue = oil-rich; Red = minerals-rich Source: Leonce Ndikumana Africa s 10 worst performers: tax, PHE, IMR country capital flight ($bn) country Tax/GDP % country pub health exp per capita country infant mortality NGA SDN 7 ZAR 2 SLE 156 AGO COG 8 GIN 2 TCD 124 CIV CAF 8 SLE 4 MOZ 117 ZAR ETH 9 ETH 5 AGO 116 ZAF NGA 9 BDI 6 CAF 114 ZMB GIN 10 CAF 6 RWA 109 CMR SLE 10 UGA 6 ZAR 109 ZWE MDG 11 CIV 8 BDI 109 COG RWA 12 MDG 9 ZMB 104 ETH ZAR 12 ZWE 11 BFA 104 SDN GAB 12 MWI 12 NGA 99 GAB BFA 12 KEN 12 GIN 95

16 climate vulnerability in Africa source: Strauss Center, Univ of Texas

17 Useful Africa Source: Le Monde Diplomatique, Feb 2011 known minerals in Africa, 2008

18 Africa s mining production by country, South Africa Botswana Zambia Ghana Namibia Angola Mali Guinea Mauritania 20 Tanzania 20 Zimbabwe 20

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20 the Great Deceleration: BRICS lead

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23 WAVES 50/50 Campaign for Natural Capital Accounting Glenn-Marie Lange, Program Manager for WAVES Global Partnership, Environment Department, The World Bank Building on the Gaborone Communique on NCA from the African Sustainability Summit, hosted by Botswana May 24-25, signed by 10 African countries 62 (32 developing) countries signed the NCA Communique, endorsing Implement natural capital accounting where there are internationally agreed statistical standards the SEEA Develop methodology for the more difficult to measure natural capital ecosystem services Demonstrate how NCA can support decision-making for sustainable development

24 World Bank (minimalist) adjustments to genuine savings fixed capital (-), education (+), natural resource depletion (-), and pollution (-)

25 extraction! Where is the Wealth of Nations? Zambia, 2007 World Bank method for adjusting savings to account for a country s tangible wealth and resource depletion

26 South Africa s natural capital accounts a first cut in the World Bank s Changing Wealth of Nations (2011) substantial subsoil assets within natural capital ($/capita) depletion of subsoil (mineral) assets = 9% of income net decline in SA s per person wealth: $245

27 World Bank (minimalist) adjustments to genuine savings fixed capital (-), education (+), natural resource depletion (-), and pollution (-)

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31 The Economist magazine changes its tune

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33 Africa Rising? (# of citations)

34 Africa Middle Class Rising (hmmm, a $2/day middle class?)

35 multinational corporate profits as a percentage of firm equity extractive industries Source: UN Conference on Trade and Development (2007), World Investment Report 2007, Geneva.

36 and Africa protests Rising Agence France Press::

37 Africa protests (and food prices) rising

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41 ecological debt now recognised as one implication of natural capital

42 GHG/capita by country, 2000 Australia USA Saudi Arabia Canada Kazakhstan Russia

43 North-South climate debt rises if we include outsourced production

44 who are climate creditors? (who s owed?) a Climate Demography Vulnerability Index main losers: Central America and Caribbean Andes and Amazon Central/South Asia and Middle East SubSaharan Africa Southeast Asia and small islands

45 who s owed? climate change creditors main losers: Central America, central South America, Central and Southeast Asia and much of Africa

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