Business Cycle Measurement
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2 Goals/Reading Business Cycle Fluctuations GDP Fluctuations Goals / Reading 1/ 17 Specific Goals: Identify regularities (and irregularities) in macroeconomic activity. Identify comovement in macroeconomic variables. Describe the behavior of key macroeconomic variables. Reading: Williamson, Chapter 3.
3 Goals/Reading Business Cycle Fluctuations GDP Fluctuations Business Cycle Fluctuations 2/ 17 Business Cycle: fluctuations around a trend in economic activity. Peak: a turning point in a business cycle at a large positive deviation from the trend. Trough: a turning point in a business cycle at a large negative deviation from the trend.
4 Goals/Reading Business Cycle Fluctuations GDP Fluctuations GDP Deviations from Trend 3/ 17 Real GDP: A measure of the quantity of all final goods and services produced. Potential GDP: Value of real GDP if all factors of production are used efficiently. Trend GDP. Output gap: Percentage deviation of real GDP from potential. Recessionary gap: output gap that is negative. Inflationary gap: output gap that is positive.
5 Goals/Reading Business Cycle Fluctuations GDP Fluctuations GDP Deviations from Trend 4/ 17 Top graph: Blue: Potential GDP Black: Real GDP Bottom graph: Output gap. ECO 305: Intermediatehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 Macroeconomics
6 Cyclicality Leading and lagging variables Examples 5/ 17 Procyclical: A variable is procyclical if its deviations from trend are positively correlated with the output gap. Countercyclical: A variable is countercyclical if its deviations from trend are negatively correlated with the output gap. Acyclical: A variable is acyclical if it is not procyclical nor countercyclical.
7 Cyclicality Leading and lagging variables Examples of Imports and GDP 6/ 17 Are imports are procyclical, countercyclical, or acyclical?
8 Cyclicality Leading and lagging variables Examples of Price Level and GDP 7/ 17 Is price level procyclical, countercyclical, or acyclical?
9 Cyclicality Leading and lagging variables Examples Leading and Lagging Variables 8/ 17 Leading: A variable is leading when it tends to predict upcoming movements in real GDP. Lagging: A variable is lagging when it tends to follow recent movements in real GDP. Coincident: A variable is a coincident variable when it is positively correlated with GDP, but not leading or lagging. Leading Economic Indicators: An index comprised of several leading economic variables, constructed using statistical forecasting techniques. Conference Board s Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia State and National Leading Indices.
10 Cyclicality Leading and lagging variables Examples Housing Starts 9/ 17 Light blue: Real GDP Dark blue: Housing Starts Is Housing Starts a leading, lagging, or coincident economic variable?
11 Cyclicality Leading and lagging variables Examples Unemployment Rate 10/ 17 Blue Line: Unemployment rate: deviation from mean, multiplied by -1. Black Line: Output gap. Is the unemployment rate a leading, lagging, or coincident economic variable?
12 Cyclicality Leading and lagging variables Examples Employment 11/ 17 Light blue: Real GDP Dark blue: Employment Is Employment a leading, lagging, or coincident economic variable?
13 Cyclicality Leading and lagging variables Examples FRB Philadelphia National Leading Index 12/ 17 Blue Line: Leading Index Black Line: Real GDP Growth
14 Cyclicality Leading and lagging variables Examples FRB Philadelphia Wisconsin Leading Index 13/ 17 Blue Line: National Leading Index Green Line: Wisconsin Leading Index
15 Measure of variance Consumption Investment 14/ 17 is a description of how much a variable deviates from its trend. is the opposite of stability. Typically measured by the variance of the variable s standard deviation from trend, as a ratio of the standard deviation of the output gap.
16 Measure of variance Consumption Investment Consumption 15/ 17 Light blue: Real GDP Dark blue: Consumption Consumption = 75%.
17 Measure of variance Consumption Investment Investment 16/ 17 Light blue: Real GDP Dark blue: Investment Investment = 473%.
18 Coming up! Coming Up! 17/ 17 Next class: One-period model of the macroeconomy. Please read Chapter 4! Homework due Tuesday, Sept 13: Williamson, Chapter 3 problems: 2-6. Convert any Word documents to PDF. File name convention: lastname firstname hw1.pdf. Type up answers and upload to D2L dropbox.
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