The Aggregate Expenditures Model. A continuing look at Macroeconomics

Transcription

1 The Aggregate Expenditures Model A continuing look at Macroeconomics

2 The first macroeconomic model The Aggregate Expenditures Model What determines the demand for real domestic output (GDP) and how an economy achieves an equilibrium level of output The chapter begins with some history and simplifying assumptions for the model One of the keys is the assumption that the prices are fixed.

3 The development of the aggregate expenditures model The development of this model occurred during the Great Depression when there was high unemployment and underutilized capital Prices were fixed and stuck (an extreme version of the sticky price model) because the oversupply of productive resources kept prices low As a result businesses had to make output and employment decisions based on unplanned changes in inventories arising from economic shocks

4 This model is effective, with its constant price assumption, for analysis of the modern economy because in many cases prices are sticky or stuck in the short run It is effective in understanding how economic shocks affect output and employment when prices are fixed or sticky

5 Two simplifications are made to make the model The first is that the economy is private, or closed (no international trade or government spending or taxes) Second that output or income measures are equal (real GDP = DI). As we examine the model we will loosen these restrictions, but for the sake of understanding the chapter keeps it confined at the beginning

6 An explanation of how investment decisions of the individual firms are used to construct investment schedules It is then combined with the consumption schedule to form an aggregate expenditures schedule that shows the various amounts that will be spent in a private closed economy at each possible output or income level These aggregate expenditures in tabular or graphical form are used to find equilibrium GDP for this economy You must understand how this equilibrium GDP is determined and why this level of output will be produced when you are given information about consumption and investment

7 The investment decisions of businesses in an economy can be aggregated to form that investment schedule It shows the amounts business firms collectively intend to invest (their planned investment at each possible level of GDP) An assumption is made at this point is that investment is independent of disposable income or real GDP

8 Two other features of the simplified model are also essential to understand Savings and actual investment are always equal because they are defined in exactly the same way: the output of the economy minus its consumption. Saving and planned investment, however, are equal only when real GDP is at its equilibrium level When real GDP is not at its equilibrium level, savings and planned investment are not equal and there are unplanned changes in inventory. Equilibrium GDP is achieved when saving and planned investments are equal and there are no unplanned changes in inventory

9 In the model, the equilibrium GDP is the real GDP at which Aggregate expenditures (consumption plus planned investment) equal real GDP, or C + Ig = GDP In graphical terms, the aggregated expenditures schedules crosses the 45-degree line. The slope of this curve is equal to the marginal propensity to consume

10 There are two other features of equilibrium GDP that must be acknowledged The investment schedule indicates what investors plan to do. Actual investment consists of both planned and unplanned investment (unplanned changes in inventories) At above equilibrium levels of GDP, saving is greater than planned investment, and there will be unintended or unplanned investment through increases in inventories At below equilibrium levels of GDP, planned investment is greater than saving, and there will be unintended or unplanned disinvestment through a decrease in inventories Equilibrium is achieved when planned investment equals savings and there are no unplanned changes in inventories

11 The chapter also showed what causes real GDP to rise and fall based in changes or additions to aggregate expenditures. The first change to understand is the effect of a change in investment spending on the equilibrium real GDP in a private closed economy The initial change in investment will increase equilibrium real GDP by more than the initial investment stimulus because of the multiplier effect (you remember that (formula), don t you?

12 Changes in investment or consumption, will cause the equilibrium real GDP to change in the same direction by an amount greater than the initial change in investment (or consumption) The reason for this change is the multiplier effect Why do I keep repeating myself? I wish I had done it earlier to make sure everyone got the foundational materials.

13 The methodology to find the equilibrium real GDP in a private open economy I kept waiting for someone to ask, but since no one did, an open economy is one with exports and imports, a private closed one doesn t Is the same as that earlier private closed economy The economy will tend to produce a real GDP that is equal to the aggregate expenditures The only difference is that now the aggregate expenditures include not only consumption and investment but also the net exports (exports minus imports) An increase in net exports, like an increase in investment, will increase the equilibrium real GDP A change in next exports also has a multiplier effect on real GDP just like a change in investment

14 In a private open economy there are net exports (Xn), which are defined as exports (X) minus imports (M) The equilibrium real GDP is equal to consumption plus investment plus net exports The net exports schedule will be positive or negative The schedule is positive when exports are greater than imports; it is negative when imports are greater than exports Draw me a graph Any increase in Xn will increase the equilibrium real GDP with a multiplier effect. A decrease in Xn will do just the opposite

15 In an open economy model, circumstances and policies abroad can affect the real GDP of the United States If there is an increase n real output and income in other nations that trade with the United States, then because of this prosperity abroad the U.S. can sell more goods abroad, which increases net exports, and thus increases real GDP in the US. A decline in the real output or incomes of other trading nations has the opposite effects. A depreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar will increase the purchasing power of foreign currency and this change will increase U.S. exports. The result is an increase in net exports and real GDP. An appreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar has the opposite effect

16 During recessions nations often look for ways to increase export and giving a boost to the GDP. Although it is tempting for governments to pursue a policy of raising tariffs or devaluing currency as a means to increase net exports, such government intervention is short-sighted because other nations are likely to retaliate and take the same actions When that happens there is a negative effect on net exports and a reduction in GDP as happened during the Great Depression

17 Make sure to pay careful attention to Adding the Public Sector As it introduces government taxing and spending into the analysis of equilibrium GDP Government purchases of goods and services add to aggregate expenditures, and taxation reduces the disposable income of consumers, thereby reducing both the amount of consumption and the amount of saving that will take place at any level of real GDP You will need to be able to calculate the level of real GDP produced at various levels and why

18 Changes in government spending and tax rates can affect equilibrium real GDP A simplified analysis assumes that government purchases do not affect investment or consumption that taxes are purely personal taxes and that a fixed amount of tax revenue is collecting regardless of the level of GDP (a lump-sum tax)

19 Government purchases of goods and services add to the aggregate expenditures schedule and increases equilibrium real GDP; an increase in there purchases has a multiplier effect on equilibrium real GDP Taxes decrease consumption and the aggregate expenditures schedule by the amount of the tax times the MPC. They decrease savings by the amount of the tax times the MPS.

20 An increase in taxes has a negative multiplier effect on the equilibrium real GDP When governments both tax and purchase goods and services, the equilibrium GDP is the real GPD at which aggregate expenditures (consumption + investment + net exports + government purchases of goods and services) equals GDP From leakages and injections perspective, the equilibrium GDP is the real GDP at which leakages (savings + imports + taxes) equals injections (investment + exports + government purchases). At equilibrium real GDP, there are no unplanned changes in inventories

21 Be aware that equilibrium real GDP is not necessarily the real GDP at which full employment is achieved Aggregate expenditures may be greater or less that the fullemployment real GDP If they are greater, there is an inflationary expenditure gap If they are less, there exists a recessionary expenditure gap You will need to be able to measure: The size of each expenditure gap The amount by which the aggregate expenditures schedule must change to bring the economy to full-employment real GDP

22 The equilibrium level of real GDP may turn out to be an equilibrium that is at less than full employment, at full employment, or at full employment with inflation If the equilibrium real GDP is less than real GDP consistent with full-employment real GDP there exists a recessionary expenditure gap. Aggregate expenditures are less than what is needed to achieve full-employment real GDP. The size of the recessionary expenditure gap equals the amount by which the aggregate expenditures schedule must increase (shift upward) to increase real GDP to its full-employment level

23 Keynes s solution to end a recessionary expenditure gaps and achieve full employment GDP was either to increase government spending or decrease taxes. An increase in government expenditures or a cut in taxes would work through the multiplier to lift aggregate expenditures One caution about the price assumption, however, is worth nothing As an economy moves to full-employment or potential GDP, prices should not be assumed to be stuck or sticky, and thus will rise because there is no longer a large supply of unemployed resources to restrain price increases Such a flexible-prices condition will be analyzed in the aggregate demandsupply model in the next chapter

24 If aggregate expenditures are greater than those consistent with full-employment GDP then there is an inflationary expenditure gap. This expenditure gap results from excess spending and will increase the price level, creating demand-pull inflation (remember that?) The size of the inflationary expenditure gap equals the amount by which the aggregate expenditures schedule must decrease (shift downward) if the economy is to achieve full-employment real GDP The U.S. recession of is an example of a recessionary expenditures gap as investment spending declined, thus reducing aggregate expenditures Aggregate expenditures were insufficient to achieve a full-employment level of GDP and produced one of the largest GDP gaps since the Great Depression

25 The chapter ends with a great tool, data from the recession You can use the data to explain: recession, inflation, and economic growth And you should pay close attention to the material, especially the impact of the federal government s attempt to lift aggregate expenditures by providing tax rebates and increasing government spending

26 Last Word Classical economists hold the view that when there are deviations from full employment in the economy, it will eventually adjust and achieve equilibrium This view is based on Say s Law (I know you remember that), which says that supply creates its own demand It implies that the production of goods will create the income needed to produce goods

27 The events of the Great Depression brought about John Maynard Keynes who challenged that thought in 1936 in his book General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money Keynes said that supply may not create its own demand because not all income need be spent in the period it was earned, thus creating conditions for high levels of unemployment and economic decline