Gladiator Stocks. Scrip I-Direct Code Action Target Stoploss Upside Wim Plast WIMPLA Buy in the range of
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1 Gladiator Stocks Scrip I-Direct Code Action Target Stoploss Upside Wim Plast WIMPLA Buy in the range of % Time Frame: 6 Months Research Analysts Dharmesh Shah dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com Pabitro Mukherjee pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com Nitin Kunte, CMT nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com Vinayak Parmar vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com November 30, 2017
2 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Wim Plast (WIMPLA): Resumption of up move after major consolidation CMP: Buying Range: Target: Stop loss: Upside: 19% Stock Data 52 Week High / Low 1690/ days EMA days EMA Week EMA 1386 Face Value ( ) 10 Market Capitallisation ( Cr.) 1638 Stock price vs. BSE Small cap 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Wim Plast BSE Small cap Price performance last five years 240% 140% 40% -60% 9% 254% 31% 52% Year 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000-10% YTD Source: Bloomberg, NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research Technical View Wim Plast (WPL), a Cello group company, primarily deals in the plastic moulded furniture and air cooler business. The share price of Wim Plast is in a secular up trend forming rising peak and rising trough on the long term charts. Within this structural uptrend, the stock has undergone periodic phases of corrective decline providing fresh entry opportunities for investors to ride the uptrend. We believe the stock has undergone a healthy correction from the top, retracing nearly 50% of the rally from last year s low of 775 to this year s record high of We feel the stock, after a decent correction this year, is now set to resume its primary up trend, thereby providing opportunity to create fresh long position from a medium-term perspective. Uptrend followed by shallow correction keeps overall bull trend intact Wim Plast has been in a major up trend since During this entire uptrend, rallies have been very strong while corrections to these rallies have come in the form of either shallow retracement or sideways price action. A similar scenario is unfolding at present. After more than doubling from April 2016 low of 775 to November 2016 high of 1660, the stock has broadly consolidated between 1250 and 1650 for almost a year. Also, from March 2016 till date, the stock has formed a positive divergence with the monthly RSI, as a higher low in price has been accompanied by a lower low in the RSI. A pause to the uptrend in the form of a sideways correction accompanied by bullish signal in the monthly RSI augurs well for the stock, going ahead. Base formation near major moving average support After touching its record high of 1690 in June 2017, Wim Plast has steadily drifted lower ever since. From the start of October though, the stock has shown signs of forming a basing pattern near the key 100 weekly exponential moving average (EMA) support, which is currently placed at Each time, the stock has approached this support. It has bounced off it, hinting at strong accumulation near this region. What is more noteworthy is that the 100 weekly EMA has acted as an area of major buying interest since Each time the stock has approached towards this support, it has been met with strong demand Momentum oscillator indicates build-up of strength Among oscillators, the weekly 14 period s RSI is rebounding from its previous low and from the bull market support reading of 40. It has recently generated a bullish crossover above its nine period s average thus highlighting the overall positive price structure and indicates build-up of positive momentum, which augurs well for the stock from a medium term perspective. Conclusion Based on the above factors, we feel that Wim Plast has undergone a period of healthy consolidation over the past one year. Hence, we foresee a fresh entry opportunity in the stock. We feel that the stock will resume its primary up trend and test levels of 1600, being the 80% retracement of the entire decline ( ) placed at 1600 levels. 2
3 Wim Plast (WIMPLA): Weekly Bar Chart The stock is in secular uptrend and is seen resuming uptrend after recent corrective decline from the major support area thus offers fresh entry opportunity % retracement of the entire Price taking support at the confluence of the following technical parameters: -100 weeks EMA - The medium term rising trendline support Weekly 14 period s RSI rebounded from its previous lows and has generated a buy signal above its nine period s average signaling positive bias in the stock Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 3
4 Wim Plast: Fundamental view Stock Data Particular Ammount Mcap 1618 crore Debt (FY17) 0 Cash & Inves (FY17) 14 crore EV 1604 crore 52 Week H/L 1690/ 1260 Equity Capital 12 crore Face Value 10 Key Metrics FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Price/BV (x Mcap/Sales (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Financial Highlights ( crore) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS ( ) Source: Company, ICICIdriect.com Research Fundamental View Wim Plast (WPL), a Cello group company, primarily deals in the plastic moulded furniture and air cooler business with revenue contribution of ~90% and 10%, respectively. WPL is the third largest player in the plastic furniture category (after Nilkamal and Supreme Industries) with market share of ~15%. The company has over 500 dealers across India and northern & western part contributes ~65% of sales. Leveraging on brand Cello, WPL has succeeded in creating ample opportunities to gain market share through its expansion plans and launch of new products since its inception. Leveraging on brand Cello WPL operates in a highly unorganised market (~55% share for unorganised players) and uses the established brand Cello to promote its products. The strong brand recall has helped the company to garner substantial market share in Tier II and Tier III cities. WPL uses the brand Cello (owned by its promoters) and pays royalty to promoters. Over the last five years, the company has increased its plastic processing capacity (by setting up new plants in Chennai, Haridwar, Kolkata and Daman). The expansion helped company to increase its market share to ~15% in FY17 from 12% during FY12. The company witnessed muted sales growth in the plastic furniture category during FY15-17 mainly due to a sharp decline in realisation and lower-than-expected volume growth. This was mainly due to a decline in crude prices (led to sharp price reduction), and demonetisation (led to lower volume growth). Going forward, we believe implementation of GST would benefit WPL in terms of higher volume growth (as tax incidence fell from 27% to 18%) and further gain in market share from unorganised category. Further, the company has also entered into tie-up with online retail giant like Amazon, Flipkart to sales its products. On a conservative basis, we have modelled plastic segment revenue CAGR of 11% supported by ~10% volume growth in FY17-19E. However, realisation may remain muted as the company is likely to pass on tax benefits (due to GST) to its customers. Diversification into air cooler segment to drive revenue, going forward In order to leverage strong dealer network and brand Cello, WPL entered into air cooler segment during FY16 with initial outlay of 10 crore. The company recorded air cooler sales growth of ~76% YoY to ~ 53 crore during FY17. The company has expanded its air cooler capacity by setting up new plant in Gujarat during FY17. We believe the air cooler industry, which is highly dominated by unorganised players (with ~70% market share) is likely to record a strong performance in the coming future owing to a shift in demand from unorganised to organised category due to GST. We have modelled air cooler category of WPL to record revenue CAGR of 30% in FY17-19E led by ~25% volume growth during the same period. Debt free status, attractive margin to drive valuation The company has maintained its strong EBITDA margin profile (last three year average EBITDA margin of ~21%) despite venturing into new product category and passing on the benefit of lower pricing to customers. We believe the company will maintain higher margin due to strong brand recall. Further, WPL has maintained its debt free status over the years (cash of ~ 14 crore in FY17) supported by strong operating cashflow ( 122 crore in last three years). We maintain our positive stance considering the strong fundamental of the company. 4
5 Strategy Follow up Date Scrip Name Rec Price Target Stoploss CMP Return till date (%) 13-Jul-17 ABB % 18-Sep-17 Asian granito % 25-Oct-17 JK Lakshmi Cement % 1-Nov-17 Oberoi Realty % 3-Nov-17 Symphony % 3-Nov-17 PNB % 9-Nov-17 GSK Consumer % 9-Nov-17 Vardhman Textiles % 10-Nov-17 Ultratech Cement % 15-Nov-17 Pfizer % 15-Nov-17 Abbot India % Summary Performance - Recommendations till date Total Recommendations 317 Open 11 Closed Recommendations 306 Yield on Positive recommendations 18.0% Positive Recommendations 234 Yield on Negative recommendations -8.0% Closed at cost 8 Strike Rate 79% 5
6 Notes It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis. The recommendations are valid for six months and in case we intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail. Trading portfolio allocation It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation For example: The Momentum Pick product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation 6
7 Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation Product Allocations Product wise Max allocation allocation In 1 Stock Number of Calls Return Objective Duration Momentum Picks- Intraday Momentum Picks- Positional 10% 30-50% 2-3 Stocks 1-2% Intraday 25% 8-10% 6-8 Per Month 5-8% 1 Month Stocks on the move 25% 12-15% 6-8 Per Month 10-12% 3 Months Gladiator Stocks 35% 15-20% 20-30% 6 Months Cash 5% 100% - 7
8 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai
9 Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number INH ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this section have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Nonrated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. The research recommendations are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. These research recommendations and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving these recommendations. Nothing in this section constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed herein may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of these recommendations. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 9
10 Disclaimer ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein during the period preceding twelve months from the date of these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned herein in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this reports. It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee and Vinayak Parmar, Research Analysts giving these recommendations have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the company/companies mentioned herein as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of these research recommendations. Since Associates (ICICI group companies) of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned herein. It is confirmed that Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee or advisory board member of the companies mentioned herein. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented herein. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned herein. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report or recommendations are not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. 10
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