Dark Pool Trends: 2008 in Review A Year of Growth and Transformation. January 29, Joe Gawronski Justin Schack Rosenblatt Securities Inc.
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1 Dark Pool Trends: 2008 in Review A Year of Growth and Transformation January 29, 2009 Joe Gawronski Justin Schack Rosenblatt Securities Inc.
2 2 The Top 8 of 08: Trends That Shaped the Dark-Pool Landscape 1. Impressive Volume Growth Driven by new venues, internalization and buy-side demand 2. No Consolidation of Pools Despite pundit predictions ECN comparison flawed 3. IOIs and Other Linkages Exploded Not inherently evil, but can degrade execution quality and thus require disclosure, monitoring and opt-out 4. Dark and Light Joined Forces Exchange routing/solicitation to and from dark pools 5. Algo-Friendly Pools Dominated Fundamentally transformed space 6. Block Venues Court Algo Flow Response to losing market share to fast, cheap, small-size pools run by brokers and market-makers 8. Algo-Friendly Pools Pursued Blocks Addressing buy-side frustration over declining average trade size in nondisplayed venues Likely to accelerate in Dark Pools Invaded Europe Capitalizing on MiFID rules that open incumbent exchanges to competition for first time
3 3 Impressive Volume Growth in % 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Dark Pools as % of Consolidated Volume
4 4 Why Consolidation of Dark Pools Didn t Occur, and Likely Won t Flawed Comparison With ECNs in late 1990s/early 2000s Category dominated by broker internalization pools that have no incentive to combine Independent pools charge relatively high commissions and not subject to margin pressure that drove ECN consolidation A few weak pools may go out of business or sell, but we won t see ECN-like winnowing through M&A
5 5 Use of IOIs and Other Linkages Exploded, in Part to Address Fragmentation IOIs and IOCs Outbound IOIs solicit flow into dark pools Inbound IOIs alert pools to external matches IOCs used to respond to inbound IOIs Dark Pool Aggregators Problems: latency, adverse selection, restriction from juiciest flow Linkages and Reciprocal Algo Access Goldman-Morgan Stanley-UBS Credit Suisse-Instinet
6 6 Dark and Light Markets Joined Forces NYSE Arca, Nasdaq and BATS dark routing/solicitation programs Follows on success of Direct Edge ELP program Helps dark pools broaden reach to increase match rates Allows exchanges to cut costs Routing unmatched orders to other exchanges/ecns = 30 mil fee Routing unmatched orders to certain dark pools = free/de minimis charge
7 7 Broker/Market-Maker and Exchange Pools Gained Market Share at the Expense of Independent/Agency Pools 1000 Average Daily Volume, Millions of Shares JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Broker/Market-Maker Exchange Independent/Agency Consortium
8 8 Dark Pools: 2008 in Review Change in Share of Dark Pool Volume by Category Consortium 7% Consortium 8% August Independent/ Agency 24% Independent/ Agency 14% Consortium 8% Broker/ MarketMaker 58% Exchange 10% Exchange 15% Independent/ Agency 18% Exchange 11% April Broker/ Market-Maker 64% Broker/MarketMaker 63% December
9 9 Growth of Individual Pools: Algo-Friendly Venues Dominate
10 10 Convergence of Block Crossing and Algo-Friendly Approaches: A 2008 Trend That Will Be Even Bigger in 2009 Block Pools Courting Algo Flow Response to stagnating block volumes/losing share to algo-friendly pools Liquidnet H2O/Supernatural Pipeline Algorithm Switching Engine Algo-Friendly Pools Courting Blocks Response to buy-side frustration with declining size in dark pools Goldman point-in-time cross, Block Signal product LeveL block order type planned; Instinet block pool forthcoming New York Block Exchange Joint venture of BIDS and NYSE Euronext launched 1/29/09 Integrates block orders with public and reserve books on NYSE
11 11 Convergence in Action: As Dark Pool Landscape Transformed, Volatility Had Less Effect on Volumes, But Extreme Levels Still A Drag JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Dark Pools as % of Consolidated Volume VIX Average Close
12 12 Dark Pools Invaded Europe EU s MiFID opens incumbent exchanges to competition Some pools in Europe for many years Liquidnet, Posit Wave of 2008/pending 2009 launches to capitalize on MiFID NYFIX Euro Millennium Knight Link ICAP BlockCross Incumbents and challengers alike recognize power of light-dark integration Turquoise NYSE Euronext SmartPool
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