INVESTMENT BANKING AND CAPITAL MARKETS THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP

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1 INVESTMENT BANKING AND CAPITAL MARKETS Market Report Fourth Quarter 23 Edition New York, Frankfurt March 2, 24 THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page Global Investment-Banking Outlook 2 Overview of Fourth Quarter 23 8 Market Review Corporate Finance and Advisory 15 Fixed-Income Trading 23 Equity Trading 27 Data Definitions 34-1-

3 Global Investment-Banking Outlook -2-

4 INVESTMENT-BANKING REVENUE EXPECTED TO GROW TO $19 BILLION BY was the second-best year in investment-banking history measured by revenues Overall industry revenues improved to $16 billion in 23 Results were driven by trading revenues. More than 5 percent of revenues were generated in fixed income The industry earned $49 billion in profits, of which $31 billion came from trading debtrelated products We expect revenues to grow to $19 billion by 26 with a significant shift of revenue pools from fixed-income to advisory and equities businesses A return of investor confidence will support deal activity in equities and advisory businesses Economic recovery and rising interest rates will slow down fixed-income revenue Overall industry profit margins are expected to decline slightly A slow down of fixed-income business will most likely lead to overcapacity and depress overall margins in the short term Principal trades and arbitrage will be increasingly important for trading revenues as margins in agency execution continue to erode -3-

5 GLOBAL INDUSTRY REVENUES ARE EXPECTED TO GROW TO $19 BILLION BY Global Investment Banking Revenues 225 $B $B Global Investment Banking Profits Global Fixed Income Equities Note: CF&A stands for corporate finance and advisory Sources: Company financial reports; BCG analysis and forecasts CF&A -4-

6 REVENUES IN CORPORATE FINANCE AND ADVISORY ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND TO $42 BILLION BY 26 Investment Banking Division Revenues Investment Banking Division Regional Revenue Split $B DCM ECM M&A % 25% 5% 75% 1% M&A ECM (1) DCM (2) Americas Europe Asia (1) Equity Capital Markets (2) Debt Capital Markets Sources: Company financial reports; Thomson SDC; Dealogic; BCG analysis and forecasts -5-

7 GLOBAL EQUITIES REVENUES EXPECTED TO REACH $52 BILLION BY 26 Equity Derivatives and Global Equity Finance Show Strongest Growth Revenue Pools By Products Equities Trading Regional Revenue Split 23 $B Equity Derivatives Global Equity Finance Program Cash % 25% 5% 75% 1% Cash Equity Deriv. GEF (1) Arb. Program Americas Europe Asia (1) Global Equity Finance Sources: Company financial reports; BCG analysis and forecasts -6-

8 CREDIT PRODUCTS DRIVE FUTURE GROWTH IN FIXED INCOME Revenues from Interest Rate Businesses Are Expected to Contract Revenues ($B) (1) Includes principal finance and real estate investments Sources: Company financial reports; BCG analysis and forecasts Other (1) MBS/ABS Credit Deriv. Credit Markets Commodities Foreign Exchange Interest Rates Interest Rate Derivatives -7-

9 Overview of Fourth Quarter 23-8-

10 INVESTMENT BANKING RESULTS MAINTAINED MOMENTUM IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 23 BCG s investment-banking performance index improved from 6 to 7 points Growing investor confidence supported equities trading and corporate finance businesses Global equity underwriting volumes doubled in the fourth quarter from previous three months Fixed income trading revenues declined by 9 percent Although average industry revenues and profit margins remained at third quarter levels, some players improved results significantly Goldman Sachs benefited most from improved equities and advisory businesses. The investment bank increased revenues by 15 percent and profit margins by 1 percent from the third quarter 23 UBS increased revenues by 5 percent and profit margins by 6 percent in the last three months of 23-9-

11 BCG PERFORMANCE INDEX IMPROVED AGAIN IN THE FINAL QUARTER OF 23 Index BCG Investment Banking Performance Index Q1/ Q2/ Q3/ Q4/ Q1/1 Q2/1 Q3/1 Q4/1 1Q/2 2Q/2 3Q/2 4Q/2 1Q/3 2Q/3 3Q/3 4Q/3 Note: : BCG IB performance index is calculated based on profit weighted volume trends in M&A, ECM, Equity Sales & Trading and Bond Origination Sources: Source: Dealogic; SDC; Autex; BCG analysis -1-

12 INVESTOR CONFIDENCE BOOSTED EQUITIES AND ADVISORY BUSINESS $B 15 Corporate Bonds Origination $B 6 M&A Advisory (1) Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 $B 1 US Bond Trading (2) $Tr 1 Equity Trading Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 Asia US Europe 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 (1) Based on effective transactions (2) Daily average trading volumes for treasuries, agencies, asset-/mortgage-backed securities (ABS/MBS), and corporate bonds Sources: Dealogic; SDC; FIBV; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; BCG analysis -11-

13 PROFIT MARGINS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, BUT SOME PLAYERS IMPROVED RESULTS SIGNIFICANTLY Q4/23 versus Q3/23 Gross profit margin (%) 5% BS ML Citi 4% JPMC Ø -.5% 3% LB MS UBS GS Q3/3 Ø: 33.3% Q4/3 Ø: 32.7% Q4/3 2% CSFB DB Q3/3 1% Ø+.3% Revenues ($B) Note: Ø calculated on a revenue weighted basis; operating revenue for investment banking and institutional sales and trading Sources: Company reports, BCG analysis -12-

14 STRONG RECOVERY OF ALL SURVEYED INVESTMENT BANKS IN 23 FY23 versus FY22 Gross profit margin (%) 5% Ø+6.8% 4% 3% 2% BS LB ML UBS MS DB Citi GS JPMC 23 Ø: 32.3% 22 Ø: 25.5% % CSFB % Ø +16.4% Revenues ($B) Note: Ø calculated on a revenue weighted basis; operating revenue for investment banking and institutional sales and trading Source: Company reports; BCG analysis -13-

15 FIXED INCOME TRADING GAINS DROVE REVENUE GROWTH IN 23 Trading Revenues 23 versus 22 Corporate Finance/ Advisory Revenues 23 versus 22 Trading revenue as percentage of total revenues 23 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% BS LB ML CSFB MS GS DB UBS Citi JPMC CF&A revenue as percentage of total revenues 23 35% 3% 25% Ø: 79.2% Ø: 22.6% BS 2% MS JPMC 15% DB LB ML CSFB GS Citi 65% Ø +2.8% Revenues ($B) % UBS Ø+2.4% Revenues ($B) Note: Trading and corporate finance revenues don t add up to 1 percent because of Other revenue Sources: Company reports; BCG analysis -14-

16 Market Review: Corporate Finance and Advisory -15-

17 ACTIVITY LEVELS IN CORPORATE FINANCE AND ADVISORY REBOUNDED SHARPLY Economic recovery lifted the global stock markets, accelerating equity issuance and M&A activity Volumes of announced acquisitions returned to levels of fourth quarter 21 Growing investor confidence led to a strong resurgence in equity market activity Global equity issuance almost quadrupled in the fourth quarter of 23 compared with the fourth quarter of 22 European equity underwriting nearly doubled in the fourth quarter, following the U.S. upswing in the previous quarter A review of 23 market positions shows several winners J.P. Morgan Chase gained market share in European investment banking across all businesses. Compared with 22, in 23 JPMC increased its European market share by 72 percent in equity origination, by 1 percent in M&A and by 3 percent in corporate bond underwriting Goldman Sachs emerged strongly from the prolonged downturn and seems well positioned for 24 Lazard leveraged its independent position and won share from large players in M&A advisory, particularly with Financials Institutions -16-

18 LAZARD GAINED MARKET SHARE The Firm Successfully Leveraged Its Independence M&A and Equity Origination U.S. M&A European M&A Relative market position 23 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Gained share BS Lazard BoA UBS HSBC LB DKW Rothschild DB Citi ML MS CSFB JPMC GS Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative marketposition 22 Relative market position 23 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Gained share Greenhill CA SG ING CL Lazard BNP ABN Cazenove HSBC DKW Citi LB JPMC UBS Rothschild CSFB GS MS ML Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% DB Relative marketposition 22 Note: Based on date effective relative to market leader Sources: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis -17-

19 M&A and Equity Origination EQUITY UNDERWRITING AND ADVISORY VOLUMES SURGED Equity Capital Markets 16 $B Q3/1 Q4/1 Q1/2 Q2/2 Q3/2 Q4/2 Q1/3 Q2/3 Q3/3 Q4/3 Sources: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis 6 $B Global Asia U.S. Europe Announced M&A Deals Q3/1 Q4/1 Q1/2 Q2/2 Q3/2 Q4/2 Q1/3 Q2/3 Q3/3 Q4/3-18-

20 DEUTSCHE BANK LED IN EUROPE WHILE GOLDMAN REGAINED THE LEAD IN THE UNITED STATES M&A and Equity Origination U.S. Equity Capital Markets European Equity Capital Markets Relative market position 23 1% Gained share MS GS Citi Relative market position 23 1% Gained share DB 8% 8% 6% 4% 2% % BoA UBS DB ABN BS Wachovia JPMC LB ML CSFB Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative marketposition 22 6% 4% 2% % CA JPMC BNP LB ING DKW SG HSBC ML ABN Cazenove Citi UBS CSFB MS GS Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative marketposition 22 Note: Share relative to market leader Sources: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis -19-

21 Convertibles UNFAVORABLE EQUITY MARKETS LED TO A RECORD YEAR IN CONVERTIBLES $B Convertibles Q3/1 Q4/1 Q1/2 Q2/2 Q3/2 Q4/2 Q1/3 Q2/3 Q3/3 Q4/3 Note: Share relative to market leader Sources: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis Relative 1% marketposition 23 Global Asia U.S. Europe 8% 6% 4% 2% % Global Convertibles Market Gained share UBS LB BoA GS BNP ABN Nomura CA ING MS SG JPMC DB CSFB Citi ML Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative marketposition 22-2-

22 BOND ORIGINATION VOLUMES DECLINED Fixed-Income Origination All Bonds Corporate Bonds 15 3 $B 1323 $B Q3/1 Q4/1 Q1/2 Q2/2 Q3/2 Q4/2 Q1/3 Q2/3 Q3/3 Q4/3 Note: Corporate bonds for industrial issuers only Source: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis Global Asia U.S. Europe Q3/1 Q4/1 Q1/2 Q2/2 Q3/2 Q4/2 Q1/3 Q2/3 Q3/3 Q4/3-21-

23 Fixed-Income Origination INTEGRATED CORPORATE AND INVESTMENT BANKING BUSINESS MODEL WON IN BOND UNDERWRITING U.S. Corporate Bonds European Corporate Bonds Relative market position 23 1% 8% Gained share Citi JPMC Relative market position 23 1% 8% Gained share JPMC Citi DB 6% 4% 2% % GS UBS Barclays BS Wachovia ABN CSFB LB MS DB ML BoA Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative marketposition 22 6% 4% 2% % UBS MS CSFB LB GS CA DKW BoA ML ING Coba BNP SG ABN Barclays HSBC Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative marketposition 22 Note: Relative to market leader Source: Dealogic; SDC; BCG analysis -22-

24 Market Review: Fixed-Income Trading -23-

25 BOND TRADING DECLINED Fixed-Income Trading A decline in bond-trading volume resulted in lower revenues from fixed income products in the fourth quarter of 23 Overall U.S. bond-trading volumes declined by 13 percent from third quarter Trading of asset backed/mortgage backed securities (ABS/MBS) declined markedly, down by 24 percent in the fourth quarter Leading investment banks earned on average 1 percent less in fixed-income than in the third quarter of 23 Banks need to take risks to generate trading revenues Top banks in fixed-income trading assume significantly more trading risks measured in daily VAR (1) than their competitors Banks with large corporate franchises are more successful in fixed-income trading than pure securities houses JP Morgan Chase was the leader in 23, followed by Citigroup and Deutsche Bank (1) VAR: Value-at-risk, a risk measure used to calculate the maximum daily trading loss given a certain observation period and confidence interval -24-

26 A SLOWDOWN IN TRADING ACTIVITY RESULTED IN LOWER REVENUES FROM FIXED INCOME The Decline Particularly Strong in MBS/ABS Fixed-Income Trading U.S. Daily Average Bond-Trading Volumes Fixed-Income Trading Revenues By Quarter 1 $B Index Q3/1 Q4/1 Q1/2 Q2/2 Q3/2 Q4/2 Q1/3 Q2/3 Q3/3 Q4/3 Total Q1/2 Q2/2 Q3/2 Q4/2 Q1/3 Q2/3 Q3/3 Q4/3 Note: Daily average trading volumes with Inter/Dealer Brokers and others; aggregated trading revenues for ten leading investment banks surveyed Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; BCG analysis Corp. Bonds MBS/ABS Treas/Agencies -25-

27 LEADERS IN TRADING TAKE MORE RISKS THAN COMPETITORS Fixed-Income Trading Fixed Income Price Risk Risk Efficiency Q3/3 YTD VAR $M , Fixed Income Trading Revenenes $M 6, 4, Broker Ø all players ML LB DB CSFB JPMC UBS MS Citi GS , BS Q4/1 Q1/2 Q2/2 Q3/2 Q4/2 Q1/3 Q2/3 Q3/3 Total VAR Trader Note: VAR at 99 percent confidence/one day intervals for interest rate, currency, commodities price risk; differently reported VARs converted assuming normal distribution of risk positions Sources: Company reports, BCG analysis Commodities Foreign Exchange Interest rate Average VAR $M -26-

28 Market Review: Equity Trading -27-

29 Equity Trading INCREASED TRADING ACTIVITY SLOWLY TRANSLATED INTO REVENUE GAINS Economic recovery resulted in accelerated growth of global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 23 All major global equity indices rose in 23 Global trading volumes rose 23 percent to $9.1 trillion from year-end 22 Retail investors returned to the equity markets for the first time since the burst of the Internet bubble Charles Schwab reported daily average revenue trades of 215,1 in January, up 28 percent from December 23 More money likely flows back into the stock market because of to the absence of other attractive investment opportunities U.S. investors shifted $15.5 billion of new money into equity funds in December 23, while fixed-income and money market funds reported net outflows of $5.1 billion and $21.2 billion respectively according to Lipper, the funds research company However, increased equity trading volumes translated into revenue gains only slowly While global trading volumes increased by 34 percent from the first quarter of 23, revenues from equity trading improved only 22 percent Institutional commissions remained under pressure Share of program trades at the NYSE reached 5 percent in the fourth quarter of

30 Equity trading FURTHER ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS LIKELY TO BOOST EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS Development of Main Equity Indices Rise in Indices 12 1% Index 8% 1 6% 8 S&P 5 Nikkei 225 4% 2% 12% 26% 24% 6 FTSE E3 % -2% 4-4% 2-6% -8% J 1Q1 A J 3Q1 O J 1Q2 A J 3Q2 O J 1Q3 A J 3Q3 O J -1% 23 versus 22 Nikkei 225 (1) Indexed Note: YTD 1/16/4 Source: Thomson Financial Datastream S&P 5 FTSE E3-29-

31 REVENUE IMPROVEMENT LAGGED AN INCREASE IN TRADING VOLUME Equity trading Global Exchange Trading Volumes Equity Trading Revenue By Quarter (Indexed) 14 $Tr % Q1/1 Q3/1 Q1/2 Q3/2 1Q/3 3Q/3 Global Q1/1 Q3/1 Q1/2 Q3/2 Q1/3 Q3/3 Note: Single counted, includes investment funds traded at exchanges; aggregated trading revenues for ten leading investment banks surveyed Sources: FIBV; BCG analysis Asia U.S. Europe -3-

32 A STRONG CORRELATION EXISTS BETWEEN RISK TAKING AND TRADING REVENUES Equity trading VAR $M Equity Price Risk Risk Efficiency Q3/ Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q3 2Q3 3Q3 Total BS LB JPMC Citi CSFB ML MS GS DB UBS 3,5 Trading Revenues $M 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Broker LB BS CSFB Citi JPMC ML MS DB GS Ø all players UBS Trader VAR $M Note: VAR at 99% confidence/1 day intervals for equity price risk; differently reported VARs converted assuming normal distribution of risk positions Sources: Company reports, BCG analysis -31-

33 Equity trading GROWING SHARE OF PROGRAM TRADING PUTS PRESSURE ON COMMISSIONS Program Trading Share NYSE 23 Percentage of all trades 6 5 Program trades involved more than 5 percent of NYSE trading volume Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: 5 percent means that in 5 percent of trades there is a program trade involved on one side of the trade Source: NYSE -32-

34 U.S. COMPETITORS GAINED ON MERRILL LYNCH IN 23 Equity trading Institutional equity trading NYSE and NASDAQ Institutional equity trading Europe Relative market position 23 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Gained share BoA JPMC UBS LB BS DB CSFB SG CIBC Wachovia Thomas Weisel DKW Lazard MS Citi GS ML Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Relative marketposition 22 Relative market position 23 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Gained share JPMC GS LB Coba HSBC Cazenove SG BoA Citi ABN ML DKW UBS MS CSFB Lost share % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% DB Relative marketposition 22 Note: Institutional Equity Trading of NYSE and NASDAQ excluding Knight Securities; ML includes HHG; GS includes SLK; DB includes NDB; ABN includes ING US; relative market positions are based on number of traded shares relative to market leader Source: Autex; BCG analysis -33-

35 Data Definitions -34-

36 DATA DEFINITION OVERVIEW Regional deal allocation is based on issuer s country (parent issuer s country where available). M&A deals are allocated by target nation European data come from Dealogic, U.S. and Asian data from Thomson Financial Securities Data Relative market shares are based on bookrunner league tables Equity origination data include common stock IPOs and secondary issues only Bond origination data contain all convertible and non convertible bonds, including ABS, MBS, municipals, agency, and corporate bonds Corporate bonds are limited to industrials and utilities excluding financial services issuers Equity trading data reflect institutional block trades as advertised in Autex Blockdata Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Morgan Stanley s fourth quarter ended on November 3, 23; all others on December 31,

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