The idea. The Global Economy. Business Cycle Properties. Roadmap. In the news. In the news. In the news
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1 The idea The Global Economy Economic growth is volatile We re not sure why, but we did come up with a name: business cycles Business Cycle Properties Roadmap Business cycles Volatility Mercedes-Benz USA Business cycle properties (some things are more cyclical than others) What s more cyclical? Kazakhstan spoof anthem played, AP, March 3, 01: At the Arab shooting championships in Kuwait yesterday, the organizers played the anthem from Borat in place of the real one. Apparently they downloaded anthems from the internet and got the wrong one. 3 China's $ trillion time-bomb, Business Standard, March, 01, via Neel Sheth: China's growth model is based on the oldest rapid economic growth hormone available: debt. What s the idea? Serious problem or not? Robert Mellman, JP Morgan Chase, March 16, 01 Our forecast still looks for GDP growth to average % (SAAR) in the first half of the year, with 1.5% this quarter and.5% next quarter. This week s reports on retail sales and inventories came in stronger than expected, and tilt the risk to the upside. What is he talking about? Good news or bad? 5 6 1
2 Neil Shah, Vital signs, WSJ RealTime Economics, March, 01 Builders broke ground on fewer homes in February than in January, but overall housing starts are on the rise. January s rate was revised up to 706,000 the best reading since October 008. Permits for new construction climbed to their highest level since October 008. What is he talking about? Good news or bad? Jon Hilsenrath, WSJ, March, 01 Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, called for a stronger commitment to low interest rates. What is he talking about? Do you agree? 7 8 Business cycles: what are they? Business cycles Burns and Mitchell Fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Expansions occur in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, which merge into the next cycle. That is: short-term fluctuations in growth rates 10 Business cycles: terminology US business cycle duration in months peak Period Contraction Expansion Total (33 cycles) trough expansion recession/ contraction (16 cycles) (6 cycles) (11 cycles) months 59 months Great Recession (007-09)
3 Great Depression still great Business cycles: who cares? How Long? Duration Real GDP How Deep? Ind. Prod Emp. Great Depression (1933) 3 33% 53% 3% Major depressions (191, 1938) Sharp recessions (19, 199, 195, 1958, 1975, 198) Mild recessions (197, 195, 1961, 1970, 1980, 1991, 001) Great Recession (009) Finance Fixed income Currencies Asset management Equities, esp emerging markets Media and marketing Not a focus, but they re unusually cyclical businesses Everyone else Fact of life you ll have to deal with Sources: BEA, BLS, Citi, FRB, and Geoffrey Moore US GDP Volatility 16 US GDP annual growth US GDP
4 US GDP quarterly growth Mean annual GDP growth, US France Japan China India Brazil Mexico 19 Source: EIU CountryData 0 Std dev annual GDP growth, US France Japan China India Brazil Mexico Mercedes-Benz USA Source: EIU CountryData 1 Mercedes-Benz USA How should they respond to expansions? Contractions? What aspects of their business are important? How do conditions look now? Business cycle properties 3
5 Consumption Private investment 5 6 Change in inventories Consumption: nondurable goods 7 8 Consumption: services Consumption: durable goods
6 Investment: equipment & software Investment: housing 31 3 Employment S&P What s more cyclical? What s more cylical? General Motors Proctor & Gamble Pfizer Johnson & Johnson 36 6
7 What s more cyclical? What have we learned? Walmart Richemont New York Times Google American Airlines McKinsey Economic growth is volatile Lots of things move up and down together [Like what?] Some of them move more than others [Which ones?] For the ride home The economy How does it look to you? How would you get a clearer picture? 39 7
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