Money clearly flows into
|
|
- Aubrie Shields
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 TRADING STRATEGIES Controlling risk in a seasonal strategy The end-of-month trade can be improved by paying closer attention to its downside risk. BY EMILIO TOMASINI AND URBAN JÄKLE Money clearly flows into the stock market during the end of one month and the beginning of the next. Over the past 11 years, for example, the S&P 500 index gained an average of 0.24 percent on the first day of the month, closing higher 63 percent of the time. By contrast, the index s average close-to-close move for all days was negligible less than 0.05 percent and the odds of a higher close were around 52 percent. What s the best way to exploit this bullish pattern? Of course, you could buy on the last day of the month and sell one day later. This approach isn t necessarily a bad idea, but it ignores risk; when the market can swing roughly 10 percent in either direction in a single day, as it did in October 2008, adding stoploss rules is a prudent step. The following analysis begins by assessing the simple first-day-of-themonth buy rule and then examines the best time to exit the market and how to improve results by adding profit targets and stop-loss points. The discussion also focuses on how the system has reacted in different market phases bull and bear periods and volatile and calm stretches over the past two decades. The basic approach has been tracked by Futures Truth, an independent evaluator of trading systems, for more than five years. This test uses S&P 500 futures TABLE 1: KNOW WHEN TO HOLD, FOLD Holding period Average profit Total net profit in days per trade ( ) 1 $ $157,812 2 $ $157,875 3 $ $129,062 4 $ $154,675 5 $ $126,787 6 $ $56, $ $60, $ $76, $ $37, $ $70,112 The largest profits emerged when the trades were held less than five days. FIGURE 1: TRADE EXAMPLES The S&P 500 tendency to jump during the first week of the month resulted in three of four profitable long trades in early May 2009 ACTIVE TRADER
2 Strategy snapshot Strategy: End-of-month system. Market: Any stock index futures or ETFs. Logic: Exploit the market s tendency to rally around the first of the month. Rules: Buy the market on the last day of the month. Sell up to four days later. Money Add stop loss of 1 percent, profit management target of 4 percent,trailing stop of (for S&P futures): 2.2 percent, and one-day volatility stop. FIGURE 2: EQUITY CURVE BASIC SYSTEM Without any exit rules, the basic system suffered large losses in the bear market and nearly fell apart in TABLE 2: PERFORMANCE BASIC SYSTEM Total net profit $124, Gross profit $538, Gross loss -$414, Profit factor 1.3 Total number of trades 233 Percent profitable 60.94% Avg. profit $ Avg. winner $3, Avg. loser -$4, Ratio avg. win / avg. loss 0.83 Largest winning trade $15, Largest losing trade -$29, Largest winner as % of gross profit 2.91% Largest loser as % of gross loss 7.01% Net profit as percentage of largest loss % Max. consec. winning trades 8 Max. consecutive losing trades 5 Avg. bars in total trades 5 Avg. bars in winning trades 5 Avg. bars in losing trades 5 Return on initial capital % Annual rate of return 4.08% Buy-and-hold return 7.20% Account size required $85, Total commissions $34, Percent of time in market 19.49% Max. drawdown (intraday peak to valley) -$99, Net profit as percentage of drawdown % The basic strategy earned $124,225 (124.2 percent) overall with a 61-percent win rate and a profit factor (gross profit/gross loss) of 1.3. But its risk was unacceptable as system equity dropped nearly $100,000 in (SP), but it can also be applied to any stock-index futures contract or exchangetraded fund (ETF). The method was roughly as profitable in European and Asian stock-index futures as it was in U.S. markets. When to exit? Before testing a complete strategy, let s look at the basic approach s profitability in holding periods of one to 10 trading days. Table 1 lists the system s average profit per trade and total net profit when trades are entered at the close of the last trading day of the month and exited at the close one to 10 days over a 20-year period (Jan. 26, 1989 to Jan. 23, 2009). The most profit was generated by exiting on the second day of the month, with a $680 average trade and $157,875 total profit (157.9 percent). Holding periods up to five days generated roughly comparable profits, but performance dropped in the second week. Based on Table 1, it seems reasonable to hold the trade up to four days, which is the period that will provide the backbone of the strategy we will explore. The trade rules are: 1. Buy the market at the close on the last trading day of the month. 2. Sell the market at the close on the fourth trading day of the month. Figure 1 shows several trades from February to May 2007 in which the longonly system bought the S&P 500 futures at the close of the last trading day of the month and held the trade four days (unless it was stopped out by profit targets or stop-losses, as was the case in early March). All but one of the trades was profitable. Basic performance results Table 2 shows the performance statistics continued on p. 24 ACTIVE TRADER May
3 Trading Strategies continued FIGURE 3: STOP-LOSS DISTANCES FIGURE 4: PROFIT TARGETS The green area shows the range of stop distances that improve the trading strategy s net profit. Stops up to 3 percent enhanced performance, while larger stops weakened the system. Smaller profit targets hurt the system because they didn t give profits a chance to grow. However, larger profit targets 3 to 4.5 percent - improved results TABLE 3: PERFORMANCE REVISED SYSTEM Total net profit $223, Gross profit $458, Gross loss -$235, Profit factor 1.95 Total number of trades 235 Percent profitable 45.11% Avg. profit $ Avg. winner $4, Avg. loser -$1, Ratio avg. win / avg. loss 2.37 Largest winning trade $16, Largest losing trade -$8, Largest winner as % of gross profit 3.61% Largest loser as % of gross loss 3.55% Net profit as percentage of largest loss % Max. consec. winning trades 5 Max. consecutive losing trades 6 Avg. bars in total trades 3.51 Avg. bars in winning trades 4.58 Avg. bars in losing trades 2.64 Return on initial capital % Annual rate of return 5.92% Buy-and-hold return 7.20% Account size required $19, Total commissions $35, Percent of time in market 13.11% Max. drawdown (intraday peak to valley) -$20, Net profit as percentage of drawdown % Adding a series of exit rules and profit targets doubled the system s net profit to $223,013 from $124,225. The average trade increased to $949 from $533, and the maximum drawdown became nearly five times smaller. for trading one S&P 500 futures contract and $100,000 in initial capital over the past 20 years. Commissions and slippage of $75 per trade ($150 round trip) were included. Figure 2 shows the basic system s equity curve over the test period. The basic strategy earned $124,225 (124.2 percent) overall with a 61-percent win rate, a profit factor (gross profit/gross loss) of 1.3, and an average trade of $533. However, large losses weren t uncommon. For example, the average losing trade was larger than the average winner (-$4,555 vs. $3,794), and the largest losing trade was nearly twice as big as the largest winner (-$29,075 vs. $15,650). Finally, the system lost roughly $100,000 as the stock market tanked in Clearly, the system has potential, but its drawdowns were exceptionally large. Let s look at ways to potentially enhance performance by adding exit rules that limit losses without sabotaging potential profits. Optimizing profit targets and stop losses Table 1 shows the approach was slightly more profitable when held just one or two days, and shorter holding periods reduce the strategy s market exposure. On the other hand, a longer holding period (up to four days) offers more flexibility when developing profit targets and exits for the system May 2009 ACTIVE TRADER
4 TradeStation code Before adding arbitrary exit rules, let s examine how different-sized stop losses and profit targets influence the system s profitability. Placing stops a certain percentage below (or above) the entry price works better than simply using fixeddollar amounts, because percentagebased stops adjust to market conditions. Fixed-dollar stops mean the system uses a tighter stop when the index s value is higher and a looser stop when the market is lower. For example, a $1,000 stop in the S&P 500 futures represents 4.00 points. When the March S&P 500 contract (SPH09) traded at 1,000 on Oct. 7, 2008, that stop was 0.4 percent of its value. But when the market traded at 820 on Feb. 10, that stop represented 0.5 percent of its value. The basic system s total net profit since 1989 is roughly $150,000 (without deducting commissions). Figure 3 shows the system s profit according to a stop s percentage size from zero to 5 percent. The green area shows the range of stop distances that improve the trading system s net profit. All stops from zero to 3 percent did a good job. The most effective stop losses were between 1 and 2 percent below each trade s entry point. With the March S&P 500 futures trading between 800 and 900 in January, a 1- percent stop-loss was a loss of around 8 or 9 points ($2,000-$2,250). Now that a 1-percent stop-loss has been selected, the next step is to check how different-sized profit targets affected system performance. Exiting after a trade moves a certain amount in the right direction can boost results, especially in stock-index futures. Without any profit target, the system gained about $200,000. Figure 4 compares the system s profit according to targets from 0 to 6 percent. Profits shrunk when the profit target was below 2.4 percent, and especially when it was below 1 percent. Such small targets don t give the market enough room to develop; too many trades were exited with small profits that would have grown larger if given the chance. continued on p. 26 [LegacyColorValue = true]; {Copyright Urban Jäkle, Some facts about the system: 1) Only end of day data is needed. 2) It produces long entries for any stock index futures market, e.g. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, EuroStoxx, DAX, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI, SMI, etc. 3) All trades are exited after a hold period of 4 days or if not stopped out before by any applied exits. 4) This code includes a volatility-based stop, but no other stop-losses or profit targets. { The two inputs } {1. How long to stay in the market: DaysInMarket(4), } { 2. Distance for the range based stop: Percentage(0.65), } Inputs: DaysInMarket(4), Percentage(0.65) ; Variables: StopDistance(0), LiquidationPoint(0); StopDistance= Percentage*Average(Range,8); LiquidationPoint=Close-StopDistance; {Setting the range based stop} { Entry: Go long on the Close of the last day of each month } If (DayOfMonth(Date)=29 AND DayOfWeek(Date)=5) OR (DayOfMonth(Date)=30 AND (Month(Date)=4 OR Month(Date)=6 OR Month(Date)=9 OR Month(Date)=11)) OR DayOfMonth(Date)=31 OR (DayOfMonth(Date)=28 AND Month(Date)=2) OR (DayOfMonth(Date)=28 AND (Month(Date)=4 OR Month(Date)=6 OR Month(Date)=9 OR Month(Date)=11) AND DayOfWeek(Date)=5) OR (DayOfMonth(Date)=30 AND DayOfWeek(Date)=5) OR (DayOfMonth(Date)=29 AND Month(Date)=2) OR (DayOfMonth(Date)=27 AND Month(Date)=2 AND DayOfWeek(Date)=5) OR (DayOfMonth(Date)=26 AND Month(Date)=2 AND DayOfWeek(Date)=5) then Buy( BuyDay ) this bar on close; { And finally the exit } Sell( IniStop ) next bar at LiquidationPoint stop; {The average range based stop} If BarsSinceEntry=DaysInMarket then Sell this bar on close; {Exit each trade latest after 4 days at close} ACTIVE TRADER May
5 Trading Strategies continued FIGURE 5: REVISED EQUITY CURVE VS. S&P 500 However, wider targets between 3 and 4.5 percent improved results. System profit seemed to peak at a 4-percent target, which translated to about 30 to 40 points when the March S&P 500 futures traded between 800 and 900 in January. Both exits not only increase the basic system s profit, but they also help reduce its drawdowns and risk. The revised trading system incorporates these exit rules and adds two others a 2.2-percent trailing stop and a volatility-based stop with a distance below the market of 65 percent of the 8-day average range (highlow). For example, when the S&P 500 traded at 832 on Feb. 11, a 2.2-percent trailing stop was roughly 18 points below the market, and the range-based stop was about 12 points below the market. The trailing stop tracks drops that can occur over several days, but the volatility stop will close a position if the market drops, say, 12 points in a single day. However, that stop won t protect you against smaller losses that occur on four consecutive days, which is why including other types of stops is a good idea. The revised rules are: 1. Buy the market at the close on the last trading day of the month. 2. Exit the position at a stop if the trade loses 1 percent, or Source: esignal The revised system was unprofitable from 1989 to 1996, but it rebounded in the mid-1990s as the bull market gained momentum, a trend that reappeared in Also, the strategy held on to gains during the bear markets of and Exit a profitable trade with a trailing stop if the market drops 2.2 percent, or 4. Exit the trade at the next day s open if the market drops 65 percent of its 8-day average true range in a single day, or 5. Exit the trade at the close on the fourth trading day of the month. Table 3 lists the revised system s historical performance over the past two decades. The exit rules nearly doubled the strategy s profit to $223,013 from $124,225, its profit factor jumped to 1.95 from 1.3, and the average winning trade was twice as big as the average loser ($4,321 vs. -$1,822, respectively). Finally, the maximum drawdown fell to $20,650 from roughly $100,000 under the basic system. Results in different market phases Figure 5 compares the revised system s equity curve (top) to the S&P 500 index (SPX, bottom) since It shows how the trading system s profitability has changed with different market phases. For example, the system was unprofitable from 1989 to 1996 because the market s point values and volatility were too low, so the system couldn t offset slippage and commission costs (1). However, when the bull market picked up steam in the mid-1990s, the revised system produced strong gains (2), which were repeated in the subsequent bull market from 2003 to 2007 (4). Interestingly, the trading system maintained or even increased profits during the two major bear markets from 2000 to 2003 (3) and 2008 (5). Remember that the S&P 500 dropped in half during these periods, and the system gains ground only if the market climbs at the beginning of the month. Figure 6 compares the gains and losses of the revised system s individual trades to the S&P 500 index. The range of trade results widened in volatile markets and 26 May 2009 ACTIVE TRADER
6 FIGURE 6: INDIVIDUAL TRADES VS. S&P 500 narrowed when volatility fell. In volatile times, the biggest winning trades reached $10,000 to $15,000. But risk of overnight down gaps is also significant. After buying the market at the close, you hold the trade overnight and sometimes over weekends and holidays. Thus, if the market drops sharply, a 1-percent stop-loss roughly 8 to 9 points or $2,000 in mid-february won t limit your maximum losses. During the back-testing period, the S&P 500 futures occasionally dropped overnight, causing losses of more than $5,000 with a single trade. One alternative is to trade the E-Mini S&P 500 futures that have a point value of only $50 five times smaller than the big S&P 500 contract. Another idea is to buy puts and hold them the entire month while trading the system only at the beginning of each month. Finally, the initial system s equity curve was much smoother and consistent when it simply held the trade for one instead of four days (not shown). Adding unique exit rules to this shorter system might be more promising than the four-day system described here. For information on the author see p. 8. Source: esignal As expected, the range of individual trades widened in volatile markets and narrowed when stocks settled down. In volatile times, the system posted gains of $10,000 to $15,000, but losses sometimes exceeded $5,000 if the S&P 500 plunged overnight. How the ISM report impacts the stock market Active Trader, April The market s response to the monthly ISM manufacturing report is quite interesting because it s released on the first trading day of the month. Discover how the S&P fared surrounding this event over the past seven years. Ben Warwick: Taking the quantitative view Active Trader, February An interview with money manager Ben Warwick. His approach is to trade the market s reaction to certain events such as economic report releases. Options Strategy Lab: The May-October effect Options Trader, July It is well known the overall market has tended to perform better from October to May than from May to October. The adage sell in May and go away has received a lot of attention in the financial press this year, and the recent market downturn seemed to confirm the validity of this strategy. This seasonal system uses options on the S&P 500 index to take advantage of this phenomenon. Related reading Random chance of market reality? Active Trader, December How do you know whether the market patterns you find are the real thing or just smoke and mirrors? Several statistical studies can be used to separate valid market events from random occurrences. Find out what these tools reveal about seasonal tendencies in the stock market. Trading System Lab: May-October system Active Trader, July What if you had to make only two trades the entire year one to cover short and go long and another to sell your longs and go short? This is exactly what the May-October system does. Mark your calendars: Stock market seasonality Active Trader, September This article discusses and tests theories of investing in some months, but not in others. You can purchase and download past articles at ACTIVE TRADER May
Quantitative Trading System For The E-mini S&P
AURORA PRO Aurora Pro Automated Trading System Aurora Pro v1.11 For TradeStation 9.1 August 2015 Quantitative Trading System For The E-mini S&P By Capital Evolution LLC Aurora Pro is a quantitative trading
More informationBollinger Band Breakout System
Breakout System Volatility breakout systems were already developed in the 1970ies and have stayed popular until today. During the commodities boom in the 70ies they made fortunes, but in the following
More informationThe Polychromatic Momentum System Copyright 2002 Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
The Polychromatic Momentum System Copyright 2002 Dennis Meyers, Ph.D. The Polychromatic Momentum System Momentum is defined as the difference, or percent change, between the current bar and a bar some
More informationOn a chart, price moves THE VELOCITY SYSTEM
ADVACED Strategies THE VELOCITY SYSTEM TABLE 1 TEST-SAMPLE PERFORMACE SUMMARY FOR LEAST SQUARES VELOCITY SYSTEM The initial sample test period produced the following results using the optimized parameter
More informationSELLERS VS BUYERS: WHO WINS? A STUDY OF CME OPTIONS EXPIRATION PATTERNS BY JOHN F. SUMMA, PH.D. FOUNDER AND MANAGING MEMBER OPTIONSNERD.
SELLERS VS BUYERS: WHO WINS? A STUDY OF CME OPTIONS EXPIRATION PATTERNS BY JOHN F. SUMMA, PH.D. FOUNDER AND MANAGING MEMBER OPTIONSNERD.COM, LLC Introduction Option traders rarely take into account a little
More informationIn the book Candlesticks, Fibonacci,
TRADING Strategies T h e THREE RISING VA L L E Y S p a t t e r n A series of three lows with specific characteristics marks bullish trend changes. Find out how the pattern has performed in the past and
More informationHow To Add A Layer Of Discretion To Your Swing Trading By Dave Landry
How To Add A Layer Of Discretion To Your Swing Trading By Dave Landry www.davelandry.com In my articles and books on trading, I strive to make the rules as specific as possible. However, the market doesn't
More informationCopyright by Profits Run, Inc. Published by: Profits Run, Inc Beck Rd Unit F1. Wixom, MI
DISCLAIMER: Stock, forex, futures, and options trading is not appropriate for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading these markets. Losses can and will occur. No system or
More informationApplying The Noise Channel System to IBM 5min Bars Copyright 2001 Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Applying The Noise Channel System to IBM 5min Bars Copyright 2001 Dennis Meyers, Ph.D. In a previous article on the German Mark, we showed how the application of a simple channel breakout system, with
More informationWhy Buy & Hold Is Dead
Why Buy & Hold Is Dead In this report, I will show you why I believe short-term trading can help you retire early, where the time honored buy and hold approach to investing in stocks has failed the general
More informationNaked Trading - Double Top Chart Pattern Strategy
Naked Trading - Double Top Chart Pattern Strategy If you really want to learn a profitable way to trade then look no further, the Double Top chart pattern strategy uses simple and sound trading principles
More informationORIGINALLY APPEARED IN ACTIVE TRADER M AGAZINE
ORIGINALLY APPEARED IN ACTIVE TRADER M AGAZINE FINDING TRADING STRA TEGIES FOR TOUGH MAR KETS (AKA TRADING DIFFICULT MARKETS) BY SUNNY J. HARRIS In order to address the subject of difficult markets, we
More informationFast Track Stochastic:
Fast Track Stochastic: For discussion, the nuts and bolts of trading the Stochastic Indicator in any market and any timeframe are presented herein at the request of Beth Shapiro, organizer of the Day Traders
More informationSAMURAI SCROOGE: IMPORTANT CONCEPTS
SAMURAI SCROOGE: IMPORTANT CONCEPTS CONTENTS 1. Trend vs. swing trading 2. Mechanical vs. discretionary trading 3. News 4. Drawdowns 5. Money management 6. Letting the system do the work 7. Trade journal
More informationResistance to support
1 2 2.3.3.1 Resistance to support In this example price is clearly consolidated and we can expect a breakout at some time in the future. This breakout could be short or it could be long. 3 2.3.3.1 Resistance
More information2.0. Learning to Profit from Futures Trading with an Unfair Advantage! Income Generating Strategies Essential Trading Tips & Market Insights
2.0 Learning to Profit from Futures Trading with an Unfair Advantage! Income Generating Strategies Essential Trading Tips & Market Insights Income Generating Strategies Essential Trading Tips & Market
More informationFigure 3.6 Swing High
Swing Highs and Lows A swing high is simply any turning point where rising price changes to falling price. I define a swing high (SH) as a price bar high, preceded by two lower highs (LH) and followed
More information27PercentWeekly. By Ryan Jones. Part II in the Series Start Small and Retire Early Trading Weekly Options
By Ryan Jones Part II in the Series Start Small and Retire Early Trading Weekly Options Important My 27% Option Strategy is one of the best option trading opportunities you will come across. When you see
More informationAnchored Momentum. ANCHORED MOMENTUM Compared with the ordinary momentum indicator, the anchored momentum indicator has two important benefits:
INDICATORS Anchored Momentum A centered simple moving average can be used as a reference point when creating technical analysis indicators. Even though a centered simple moving average produces a plot
More informationThe Long-Term Investing Myth
The Long-Term Investing Myth January 3, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice During my morning routine of caffeine supported information injections, I ran across several articles that just contained
More informationIcoachtrader Consulting Service WELCOME TO. Trading Boot Camp. Day 5
Icoachtrader Consulting Service www.icoachtrader.weebly.com WELCOME TO Trading Boot Camp Day 5 David Ha Ngo Trading Coach Phone: 1.650.899.1088 Email: icoachtrader@gmail.com The information presented is
More informationTo understand why it is important to control risk, consider table from chapter 2 of my book Building Wealth in the Stock Market:
Position Sizing This article was originally published with the title Understanding Position Sizing by the Australian Investors Association in The Investors Voice June 2014. Position sizing is a concept
More informationCONTENTS. Five Simple Trading Strategies That Work
Five Simple Trading Strategies That Work CONTENTS Welcome!... 3 Testing A Euro Currency Scalping Strategy... 1 RSI And How To Profit From It... 30 Better Breakout Trading Model... 36 Simple Shorting Strategy...
More informationA Different Take on Money Management
A Different Take on Money Management www.simple4xsystem.net Anyone who read one of my books or spent time in one of my trade rooms knows I put a lot of emphasis on using sound Money Management principles
More informationExit Strategies for Stocks and Futures
Exit Strategies for Stocks and Futures Presented by Charles LeBeau E-mail clebeau2@cox.net or visit the LeBeau web site at www.traderclub.com Disclaimer Each speaker at the TradeStationWorld Conference
More informationDivergence and Momentum Trading
presented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Divergence and Momentum Trading Risk Disclaimer Trading or investing carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all
More informationMarket Observations - as of Jul 27, 2018
Market Observations - as of Jul 27, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. This week began with most markets continuing their bullish trends
More informationNY Fed Models Forecasting Excess Returns Through 2018
NY Fed Models Forecasting Excess Returns Through 2018 February 3, 2014 by John Bougearel of Structural Logic CTA NY Fed Models Forecasting Excess Returns Through 2018 Encounter The Year of the Horse, Valuation
More informationChapter 6: The Art of Strategy Design In Practice
Chapter 6: The Art of Strategy Design In Practice Let's walk through the process of creating a strategy discussing the steps along the way. I think we should be able to develop a strategy using the up
More informationTRADE FOREX WITH BINARY OPTIONS NADEX.COM
TRADE FOREX WITH BINARY OPTIONS NADEX.COM CONTENTS A WORLD OF OPPORTUNITY Forex Opportunity Without the Forex Risk BINARY OPTIONS To Be or Not To Be? That s a Binary Question Who Sets a Binary Option's
More informationThree Ways To Manage Risk 14 APRIL 2009 / VOL. 5 ISSUE 4
Sam Seiden Three Ways To Manage Risk 14 APRIL 2009 / VOL. 5 ISSUE 4 One certainty in trading is that losses will occur. Sam Seiden looks at effective ways to manage the risk in trading to enjoy a long
More informationINVESTMENT UPDATE. August 2018 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
1 INVESTMENT UPDATE August 2018 PERFORMANCE UPDATE ASSET CLASS REVIEW HIGH RISK EQUALS HIGH RETURNS? WHAT RISK ARE YOU TAKING WITH YOUR MONEY? FINAL COMMENT PERFORMANCE UPDATE The portfolios performed
More informationTRADING DOWN GAPS By Daryl Guppy
TRADING DOWN GAPS By Daryl Guppy This reprinted article uses a Marketcast screen. This is now easily obtained via any of the CFD providers with live feeds. The trading method remains valid and is now easier
More informationBecoming a Consistent Trader
presented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Becoming a Consistent Trader Risk Disclaimer Trading or investing carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all persons.
More informationCOMMODITY PRODUCTS Moore Research Report. Seasonals Charts Strategies SOYBEAN COMPLEX
COMMODITY PRODUCTS 8 Moore Research Report Seasonals Charts Strategies SOYBEAN COMPLEX Welcome to the 8 Moore Historical SOYBEAN COMPLEX Report This comprehensive report provides historical daily charts,
More informationMarket Update March 9, 2015
SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, Stocks dropped and interest rates popped on Fridays payroll report as traders priced in a likely Fed rate hike
More informationMOMENTUM (IS NOT ENOUGH)
MOMENTUM (IS NOT ENOUGH) IN PRACTICE IT WORKS. IN THEORY IT DOESN T OBJECTIVES: (building blocks) MARKET REGIME STOCK BASKETS MOMENTUM (selection & management) DIVERSIFICATION LIMITED TRADING FOR TAX EFFICIENCY
More informationSycamore Market Analysis
Sycamore Market Analysis September 30, 2015 The third quarter came to an end with big gains for stocks. The rally did not quite reverse the effect of selling on Monday though with the S&P 500 still down
More informationStop Loss Orders Pro/Con Series. Pro Why I Use Trailing Stop-Loss Orders
Stop Loss Orders Pro/Con Series [Editor s Note: We continue our popular Pro/Con series today with a piece on using Stop-Loss Orders. The Pro/Con approach works well with controversial topics in medicine
More informationSeven Trading Mistakes to Say Goodbye To. By Mark Kelly KNISPO Solutions Inc.
Seven Trading Mistakes to Say Goodbye To By Mark Kelly KNISPO Solutions Inc. www.knispo.com Bob Proctor asks people this question - What do you want, what do you really want? In regards to stock trading,
More informationOptions Mastery Day 2 - Strategies
Options Mastery Day 2 - Strategies Day 2 Agenda 10:00-10:10 - Overview and Q&A from Day 1 10:10-11:00 - Morning Trade Walk Thru & Trade Plans 11:00 12:00 - Options 101 Review & Long Call/Put Criteria 12:00-12:15
More informationJOURNAL INTRODUCING THE HPO ROBERT KRAUSZ'S. Volume 2, Issue 2. ear Trader,
ROBERT KRAUSZ'S JOURNAL INTRODUCING THE HPO TM ear Trader, D First, I would like to introduce myself. My name is Thom Hartle (www.thomhartle.com) and I have put together this latest issue of the FT Journal.
More informationHOW WE MANAGE THE SCOTTISH MUTUAL INTERNATIONAL DESIGNATED ACTIVITY COMPANY WITH-PROFITS FUND
HOW WE MANAGE THE SCOTTISH MUTUAL INTERNATIONAL DESIGNATED ACTIVITY COMPANY WITH-PROFITS FUND A guide for policyholders with with-profits policies invested in this fund The aims of this guide The guide
More informationLosing When Good Trade Goes Bad
Webinar 21 Feb 2017 (futures.io) Losing When Good Trade Goes Bad Al Brooks How to Trade Forex Price Action Part Video #54 Brooks Trading Course BrooksTradingCourse.com BrooksPriceAction.com Main Points
More informationOpposites Attract: Improvements to Trend Following for Absolute Returns
Opposites Attract: Improvements to Trend Following for Absolute Returns Eric C. Leake March 2009, Working Paper ABSTRACT Recent market events have reminded market participants of the long-term profitability
More informationStock & Options Indicators for Effective Trading Systems April 25, Price Headley, CFA, CMT BIGTRENDS
Stock & Options Indicators for Effective Trading Systems April 25, 2010 Price Headley, CFA, CMT BigTrends Education Access to BigTrends and its educational services is provided for informational purposes
More informationNEWSLETTER SWING TRADING. 28 Feb Intelligent Analysis to point your decisions in the right direction
NEWSLETTER 28 Feb 2018 Intelligent Analysis to point your decisions in the right direction SWING TRADING Newsletter contains index, stocks and sector recommendations along with market outlook. It also
More informationFOREX LEARNING BY MADIBA MALEBO
FOREX LEARNING BY MADIBA MALEBO INTRODUCTION TO TREND AND ANALYSIS TREND ANALYSIS. PEAKS AND TROUGHS. SPOTTING UPTRENDS. SPOTTING DOWNTRENDS. TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRENDS. TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DOWNTREND.
More informationWith all the chart patterns
TRADING Strategies A different B R E E D o f S C A L L O P Inverted ascending scallop patterns with U-shaped volume patterns perform better than other varieties. Read on to find out more about this unusual
More information13 April US Equity Indices: the land of the bearish rising wedge. Walter Zimmermann United ICAP. US Equity Indices 13 Apr
- 1-13 April 2015 : the land of the bearish rising wedge Walter Zimmermann United ICAP The market commentary contained in this document represents the opinions of the author. Such opinions are subject
More informationClimb to Profits WITH AN OPTIONS LADDER
Climb to Profits WITH AN OPTIONS LADDER We believe what matters most is the level of income your portfolio produces... Lattco uses many different factors and criteria to analyze, filter, and identify stocks
More informationChaikin Power Gauge Stock Rating System
Evaluation of the Chaikin Power Gauge Stock Rating System By Marc Gerstein Written: 3/30/11 Updated: 2/22/13 doc version 2.1 Executive Summary The Chaikin Power Gauge Rating is a quantitive model for the
More informationTrading Essentials Framework Money Management & Trade Sizing
Trading Essentials Framework Money Management & Trade Sizing Module 9 Money Management & Trade Sizing By Todd Mitchell Copyright 2014 by Todd Mitchell All Rights Reserved This training program, or parts
More informationAs the size of the GorillaTrades portfolio increases, the Gorilla understands that not every new stock idea can be purchased.
Welcome to the GorillaTrades System tutorial. Feel free to learn at your own pace. You can pause anytime, and can also select different chapters. If you d prefer to read through the material yourself,
More informationNasdaq Chaikin Power US Small Cap Index
Nasdaq Chaikin Power US Small Cap Index A Multi-Factor Approach to Small Cap Introduction Multi-factor investing has become very popular in recent years. The term smart beta has been coined to categorize
More informationSIMPLE SCAN FOR STOCKS: FINDING BUY AND SELL SIGNALS
: The Simple Scan is The Wizard s easiest tool for investing in stocks. If you re new to investing or only have a little experience, the Simple Scan is ideal for you. This tutorial will cover how to find
More informationCore CFD trading skills
chapter 7 Core CFD trading skills In this chapter we examine the core skills that you need to develop to trade successfully. Mastering these core competencies is essential to mastering CFD trading. It
More informationBefore we get to all the details, we are going to look at a couple of trades in the first
CHAPTER 1 Let s Get Started Before we get to all the details, we are going to look at a couple of trades in the first two chapters. From them you will get a good idea where we are heading, and how we are
More informationFundamental Analysis is the study of Financial Statements and Ratios which help evaluate a company s overall Value and Growth potential.
Trading vs. Investing Investing is defined as taking a stake in a company in hopes of benefiting from their prosperity through price appreciation and dividend payouts. Fundamental Analysis is the study
More informationJune 9 th Client Comment
Client Comment June 9 th 2017 You are receiving this email because you are a client of Nick Foglietta s and you own one or more positions in the Tactical Equity Allocation Model (TEAM Model), or you are
More informationTrend Detection Index
INDICATORS Are You In A Trend? Trend Detection Index Can you tell when a trend s begun and when it s ended? You can with this. by M.H. Pee he trend detection index (TDI) is used T to detect when a trend
More informationpresented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Naked Trading Part 2
presented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Naked Trading Part 2 Risk Disclaimer Trading or investing carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all persons. Before
More informationwww.forexschoolonline.com CHECKLIST 7 Rules to a High Probability A+ Trade - CHECKLIST The checklist is below; Below the checklist is a detailed explanation of each point. You can also download the checklist
More informationThis is G&G Investment Society (GGIS) e-newsletter. Why I m Bullish Commodities Again
Karibu (Welcome) GGIS Subscribers, This is G&G Investment Society (GGIS) e-newsletter Why I m Bullish Commodities Again Ok readers I m here in Las Vegas poking my eyes out in this conference trying to
More informationEverything you need to know about the trade alerts you ve been hearing about.
11 YEAR Everything you need to know about the trade alerts you ve been hearing about. SCORECARD RESULTS FULL MARKET BREAKDOWN COMPLETE ALERT DETAILS INSTITUTIONAL-GRADE TRADE ALERTS: FUTURES, FOREX & INDICES
More informationNo duplication of transmission of the material included within except with express written permission from the author.
Copyright Option Genius LLC. All Rights Reserved No duplication of transmission of the material included within except with express written permission from the author. Be advised that all information is
More informationVIX Hedging September 30, 2015 Pravit Chintawongvanich, Head of Risk Strategy
P R O V E N E X P E R T I S E. U N B I A S E D A D V I C E. F L E X I B L E S O L U T I O N S. VIX Hedging September 3, 215 Pravit Chintawongvanich, Head of Risk Strategy Hedging objectives What is the
More informationA Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain
A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain November 29, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Waterfall events like the current one tend to most often reverberate into the weeks ahead. Indices
More informationDON T SELL IN MAY COMMENTARY THE WORST SIX MONTHS OF THE YEAR KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET SELL IN MAY. May
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY May 7 2018 DON T SELL IN MAY John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS The May
More informationBinary Options Trading Strategies How to Become a Successful Trader?
Binary Options Trading Strategies or How to Become a Successful Trader? Brought to You by: 1. Successful Binary Options Trading Strategy Successful binary options traders approach the market with three
More informationJason Leavitt Sunday, October 9, 2016
Weekly Jason Leavitt jason@leavittbrothers.com Sunday, October 9, 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Join our email list and get
More informationWELCOME
www.facebook.com/fxdd www.twitter.com/fxdd WELCOME Part 1: Building the Forex Traders Foundation Greg Michalowski Email: greg@fxdd.com www.livestream.com/fxdd www.fxddnow.com Twitter: gregmikefx Disclaimer
More informationBlack Box Trend Following Lifting the Veil
AlphaQuest CTA Research Series #1 The goal of this research series is to demystify specific black box CTA trend following strategies and to analyze their characteristics both as a stand-alone product as
More informationStock investing became all the rage during the late 1990s. Even tennis
In This Chapter Knowing the essentials Doing your own research Recognizing winners Exploring investment strategies Chapter 1 Exploring the Basics Stock investing became all the rage during the late 1990s.
More informationCOMMODITY PRODUCTS Moore Research Report. Seasonals Charts Strategies GRAINS
COMMODITY PRODUCTS 28 Moore Research Report Seasonals Charts Strategies GRAINS Welcome to the 28 Moore Historical GRAINS Report This comprehensive report provides historical daily charts, cash and basis
More informationTrading Essentials Framework Money Management & Trade Sizing 2.0
2.0 Money Management: The most critical aspect of your trading plan Money management represents the administrative side of your trading plan. It addresses the question of how best to use the capital available
More informationThe 5 Money Management And Position Sizing Secrets Of The Turtle Traders
The Turtle traders were a legendary group of traders coached by two successful traders, Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt. They selected 10 people (turtles) with little to no prior trading experience
More informationBad Breadth. Market Update August 17, Seattle Technical Advisors
SeattleTA provides investment managers with This week is options expiration week and mid-august is often better for equities than earlier or later in the month. Stock Traders Almanac reports that for the
More informationTo fully understand the dramatic turns in the financial markets that
01_chap_murphy.qxd 10/24/03 2:06 PM Page 1 CHAPTER 1 A Review of the 1980s To fully understand the dramatic turns in the financial markets that started in 1980, it s necessary to know something about the
More informationPhilippine Equity Research Focus Items Issue Highlight Page US rallies/psei rotates DOW PSEi MSCI Phils EPHE Issue Previous Current Change YTD % PHI
Issue Previous Current Change % YTD % Philippines 7,716 7,674 (41.82) (0.54) 6.14 Peso-$ 44.110 44.140 0.030 0.07 (1.30) MSCI Phils 40.92 41.19 0.27 0.66 7.83 PLDT US 70.440 69.180 (1.260) (1.79) 9.31
More informationNext time you see a financial instrument that involves academics or Ph.D.s, steer clear of it. Especially those designed by Nobel Prize winners!
Copyright 2009 Horsesmouth, LLC. All Rights Reserved. For the exclusive use of Horsesmouth Member: Jim Otar SEE BELOW FOR IMPORTANT RESTRICTIONS ON USE. Build Knowledge/Investment Theory & Strategy The
More informationWhen traders make trading decisions based on repeated price patterns that once formed,
Trading Strategy / Gert.Nurme@iBrokers.ee Price Action Trading Strategy Introduction WHAT IS PRICE ACTION TRADING? When traders make trading decisions based on repeated price patterns that once formed,
More informationBINARY OPTIONS: A SMARTER WAY TO TRADE THE WORLD'S MARKETS NADEX.COM
BINARY OPTIONS: A SMARTER WAY TO TRADE THE WORLD'S MARKETS NADEX.COM CONTENTS To Be or Not To Be? That s a Binary Question Who Sets a Binary Option's Price? And How? Price Reflects Probability Actually,
More informationTRADING STRATEGY SERIES LEARN HOW TO SPOT OPPORTUNITIES IN VOLATILE MARKETS fpmarkets.com.au
1 TRADING STRATEGY SERIES LEARN HOW TO SPOT OPPORTUNITIES IN VOLATILE MARKETS This educational material does not constitute financial product advice and does not take into account your investment objectives,
More informationRSI 2 System. for Shorter term SWING trading and Longer term TREND following. Dave Di Marcantonio 2016
RSI 2 System for Shorter term SWING trading and Longer term TREND following Dave Di Marcantonio 2016 ddimarc@gmail.com Disclaimer Dave Di Marcantonio Disclaimer & Terms of Use All traders and self-directed
More informationPlanning for Trading Stocks and Stock Indexes: Considerations for Serious Traders
Planning for Trading Stocks and Stock Indexes: Considerations for Serious Traders David B. Center, PhD Copyright 2009 (Contact through: www.davidcenter.com) 1 Planning for Trading Stocks and Stock Indexes
More informationPROFITING WITH FOREX: BONUS REPORT
PROFITING WITH FOREX: BONUS REPORT PROFITING WITH FOREX: The Most Effective Tools and Techniques for Trading Currencies BIG PROFITS COME FROM LETTING YOUR WINNERS RUN S. Wade Hansen Two axioms pervade
More informationMany students of the Wyckoff method do not associate Wyckoff analysis with futures trading. A Wyckoff Approach To Futures
A Wyckoff Approach To Futures by Craig F. Schroeder The Wyckoff approach, which has been a standard for decades, is as valid for futures as it is for stocks, but even students of the technique appear to
More informationdeep cup formed over many months, it makes sense that the measure rule
34 Rounding Bottoms R E S U L T S SNAPSHOT Appearance A long, rounded upward turn in prices if waited for upside breakout Long-term (over 6 months) consolidation 38% Average rise Percentage meeting predicted
More informationHow to Win 80% of Your Trades or Better for Over Years and Counting By Don Fishback
Beginner s Guide To Turning Options Trades Into Automatic Paychecks -- For a LIFETIME How to Win 80% of Your Trades or Better for Over 50 60 Years and Counting By Don Fishback Copyright 2016, Don Fishback,
More informationDavid Stendahl And Position Sizing
On Improving Your Results David Stendahl And Position Sizing David Stendahl is the portfolio manager at Capitalogix, a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) firm specializing in systematic trading. He is also
More informationNine Secrets To Stock Market Success! Valuable Tips From Market Pros
Nine Secrets To Stock Market Success! Valuable Tips From Market Pros Nine Secrets To Stock Market Success! Valuable Tips From Market Pros Have you ever wondered what makes some investors wildly successful,
More informationThe truth behind commonly used indicators
Presents The truth behind commonly used indicators Pipkey Report Published by Alaziac Trading CC Suite 509, Private Bag X503 Northway, 4065, KZN, ZA www.tradeology.com Copyright 2014 by Alaziac Trading
More informationBull & bear configs 4/16/2013
Bull & bear configs 4/16/2013 Our trading model is based on moving averages, and our definition of a bull and bear market differs greatly from the conventional. This simple strategy allows us to take positions
More informationINTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE
INTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE CONTENTS Key Chart Patterns That Every Trader Needs To Know Continution Patterns Reversal Patterns Statistical Indicators Support And Resistance Fibonacci Retracement Moving
More informationAnalysis of double bottoms
TRADING Strategies P i p e B O T TO M r e v e r s a l s Pipe bottoms are highly visible chart patterns that often precede sizable reversals. But beware of imposters when searching for high-probability
More informationLast Gasp in the Dollar. Market Update May 18, Seattle Technical Advisors
SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, commodity, and currency markets. While equities are expected to take a hit this week, the big news is expected
More informationWith that, let s dive into the steps. Step 1 Identify range bound markets on Daily or 4 Hour Charts
If you have been trading for any length of time, you have probably noticed that the markets are moving sideways A LOT. Consolidation is a huge part of the market s balance and so it makes sense to learn
More informationAxioma s new Multi-Asset Class (MAC) Risk Monitor highlights recent trends in market and portfolio
Introducing the New Axioma Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor Christoph Schon, CFA, CIPM Axioma s new Multi-Asset Class (MAC) Risk Monitor highlights recent trends in market and portfolio risk. The report
More informationThe $VIX, the Dow, and China. 3/15/2008
The $VIX, the Dow, and China. 3/15/2008 In the past few days, I have received some questions from a few members. These questions cannot be answered in a few words, and because other members may be interested,
More information