Economy News. Corporate News SEPTEMBER 22, 2015

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1 SEPTEMBER 22, 2015 Economy News An "enhanced activity" of the southwest monsoon will bring good rainfall in several parts of the country for the next three-four days, giving breather to many regions reeling under severe water deficiency, the Indian Meteorological Department has said. (ET) All "consequences" of law will follow and the taxman will go after black money hoarders who do not declare their illegal funds before the expiry of a one-time 90-day "compliance window" on 30 September, the CBDT chief warned. (ET) Corporate News Amtek Auto has missed payments on the Rs 8 bn worth of bonds that matured on Monday, potentially exposing the Indian banking system to a near Rs 80 Bn of loans which may have to be classified as bad loans if the company does not quickly make payments, said three persons familiar with the developments. (ET) IDFC Ltd fixed October 5 as record date for share transfer as part of its demerger scheme. (ET) Infosys has bagged a Rs 13.2 Bn contract to build GST Network system, which will be used for the roll out of proposed Goods and Services Tax in the country. (FE) Riding on its strong food products portfolio, Adani Enterprises is expecting more than 20 per cent growth in sale proceeds from the segment, with volumes likely to reach 5 mn tonnes. (ET) Bain Capital Partners acquired 10% stake in L&T Finance Holdings, the financial services arm of engineering conglomerate L&T, for slightly over $200 mn, or Rs 13.5 bn. (BS) From Venezuela to Sudan, ONGC Videsh Ltd (subsidiary of ONGC) is chasing foreign governments to get its $712 mn (over Rs.47 Bn) of dues cleared. (Mint) Aditya Birla Minerals Ltd (ABML), a subsidiary of Hindalco Industries, will sell its closed copper mine in Queensland, Australia, to Lighthouse Minerals Holdings Pty for A$15 mn (Rs 705 Mn) in cash and another A$ 41.7 mn (Rs 1.96 Bn) in rehabilitation bond costs. (ET) Bharti Airtel has moved all its pre-paid subscribers across the country to pay-per-second, ensuring customers pay only for the time they use the network. (ET) MMTC said the company will sell its 10 per cent stake in the commodity bourse ICEX equally among two bidders, who participated in the global tender. (ET) Castrol India said it has decided to permanently close its Wadala plant in Mumbai where it was not carrying out any production. (ET) Tata Motors plans to launch a new small commercial vehicle (SCV) 'Magic Mantra' in the country next month, thereby expanding product range under its popular public transport vehicle 'Tata Magic'. (ET) Steel Strips Wheels Ltd has tied up with South Korea's Kalink Co to come up with a new alloy wheel manufacturing facility in Gujarat. (ET) After United Spirits, the auditor of UB Holdings has raised concerns over Rs 87.1 Bn of corporate guarantees extended by the Vijay Mallya-owned holding company to the lenders of Kingfisher Airlines, said media reports. (ET) NTPC said it is targeting to begin production from Pakri-Barwadih coal block in Jharkhand this year and three more blocks in next two years. (ET) Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, BL = Business Line, LM = Live Mint, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange Equity % Chg 21 Sep 15 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 26,193 (0.1) (4.3) (5.5) NIFTY Index 7,977 (0.1) (3.9) (4.5) BANKEX Index 20, (2.8) (4.3) SPBSITIP Index 11, (3.4) 3.7 BSETCG INDEX 15, (10.0) (9.3) BSEOIL INDEX 8,726 (0.3) (4.6) (11.8) CNXMcap Index 12, (6.7) (1.6) SPBSSIP Index 10, (5.8) (1.4) World Indices Dow Jones 16, (8.9) Nasdaq 4, (6.3) FTSE 6, (1.3) (10.5) NIKKEI 18, (7.0) (10.4) HANGSENG 21,757 (0.7) (2.2) (19.1) Value traded (Rs cr) 21 Sep 15 % Chg - Day Cash BSE 2,285 (49.4) Cash NSE 14,732 (36.0) Derivatives 290,242 (18.2) Net inflows (Rs cr) 18 Sep 15 % Chg MTD YTD FII 768 (459) (2,236) 24,174 Mutual Fund 343 (8) 5,025 51,872 FII open interest (Rs cr) 18 Sep 15 % Chg FII Index Futures 27, FII Index Options 98, FII Stock Futures 49, FII Stock Options 2, Advances / Declines (BSE) 21 Sep 15 A B T Total % total Advances , Declines Unchanged Commodity % Chg 21 Sep 15 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Crude (US$/BBL) 46.3 (0.9) 14.4 (22.5) Gold (US$/OZ) 1,133.3 (0.4) (2.2) (4.3) Silver (US$/OZ) (0.8) (5.9) Debt / forex market 21 Sep 15 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths 10 yr G-Sec yield % Re/US$ Sensex 30,500 29,500 28,500 27,500 26,500 25,500 24,500 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15

2 COMPANY UPDATE Ruchir Khare ENGINEERS INDIA LTD PRICE: RS.190 RECOMMENDATION: BUY TARGET PRICE: RS.250 FY17E P/E: 13.3X EIL expects modest recovery in ordering activity in 2HFY16. Lower crude oil price auger well for major oil companies (upstream and downstream) which could potentially lead to business upturn. We believe that EIL stock price would be susceptible on order book growth of the company. At the current price, company's stock looks attractively valued on a discounted cash flow basis. We maintain BUY rating on company's stock with a DCF based unchanged target price of Rs.250. Summary table (Rs mn) FY15 FY16E FY17E Sales 17,412 17,713 20,529 Growth (%) (5.7) EBITDA 2,239 3,011 4,311 EBITDA margin (%) PBT Net profit 3,124 3,893 4,825 EPS (Rs) Growth (%) (35.3) CEPS (Rs) BV (Rs/share) DPS (Rs) ROE (%) ROCE (%) Net cash (debt) 24,198 19,096 21,612 NW Cap (Days) (100.1) (109.1) (95.3) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/Cash Earnings (x) P/BV (x) Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Concall Highlights We interacted with the management of EIL to get a perspective on the overall business environment unfolding in the domestic and overseas markets. Below are the key highlights of our interaction. Domestic market expected to show modest improvement going ahead; PMC orders to outperform LSTK in both domestic and international geographies Management believes that order booking/margins have bottomed out in the domestic business and business activity could post recovery through 2HFY16-FY17. However pace of growth could be slower in 2HFY16 before picking up in FY17. We highlight that factors relating to land acquisition and environmental clearances have had negative impact on the domestic order inflow in recent past. Also, large orders like HPCL Rajasthan refinery (Rs 12 Bn consultancy order) has been getting postponed since several quarters. However, management believes that in the long run, company can from benefit from several pending orders from various PSU refineries over the next few years. Major orders that EIL has bagged in last six quarters are highlighted below. Major orders Project scope Client Contract Value (Rs mn) Diesel Hydro-treater (DHT) and Associated BPCL 1250 Facilities at BPCL, Mumbai Refinery EPCM services for DHDT Project of Numaligarh NRL 800 PMC Services for AL Dabbiyah ASR Gas ADCO 1322 Additional Services on EPCM Basis for Sonatrach TPD Methanol Plant and 200 TPD Acetic Assam Petrochemicals 787 Acetic Acid Plant at Namrup Sonamura GGS and Pipeline Project Tripura on ONGC 2000 OBE Basis Delayed Coker Unit & allied facilities at Haldia IOCL ,000 BPSD Refinery and 600,000 TPA Dangote 8535 Polypropylene Plant at Lekki Free Trade Zone, Nigeria LIWA Plastics Project, Oman ORPIC 2704 Source: Company Kotak Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by the Private Client Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the Institutional Equities Research Group of Kotak Securities Limited. Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2

3 Our interaction with BPCL management/other industry players suggests that lower crude oil prices auger well for Indian Hydrocarbon industry growth. BPCL management has stated that the company is planning for increasing its refining capacity by 40% with an investment of Rs 400 Bn by FY21. This would include expansion of up to 15 mtpa at its Kochi refinery, Bina refinery expansion to 15 mtpa from 6 mtpa and Numaligarh refinery expansion from 3 mtpa to 9 mtpa. Management has maintained its view that ordering from PSU clients like IOC, HPCL, BPCL could modestly improve going ahead. Some of the potential orders can arise from the following Hydrocarbon expansion plans. Expansion plans Project Client Scope Expansion of Vishakapatnam refinery HPCL Expansion by 9 mn mt Bina refinery expansion BPCL Expansion from 7.8 mn MT to 11 mn MT Kochi propylene derivatives BPCL Propylene derivatives Bhatinda refinery expansion HPCL a) Low cost initial expansion. B) Doubling of capacity. C) Petrochemical integration. Numaligarh Expansion BPCL Barauni Refinery IOC Expansion by 6 mn MT and petrochemical integration West Coast refinery IOC Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research We highlight that in last two years, company has bagged smaller jobs within domestic consultancy business that attracts lower margins. Larger Greenfield orders are critical for the company to grow meaningfully in future. Small sized consultancy orders typically enjoy EBIT margins to the tune of 25-30% against large orders that enjoys higher margins of nearly 35-40%. Management expects pricing to remain stable which could further lead to improved margins going ahead. On overseas business front, EIL continues to maintain positive view on Middle East and Africa orders. However, management has stated that lower crude oil prices could lead to deferment in few orders. Small/medium ticket sized orders would keep on getting awarded even at currently lower crude oil price. Management has stated that competition has been steady in both international and domestic markets, however pricing has stabilized at current levels. In international orders, EIL enjoys margins slightly lesser than the domestic jobs driven by travelling cost. Currently, company derives nearly 10-12% of revenues from international jobs and expects increased proportion going ahead. EIL has also been looking to increase diversification into new areas like water management, Solar, Nuclear power and fertilizers in addition to the hydrocarbon consulting. Management has stated that enormous opportunities can arise in smart cities space. Revenues to grow on back of investment in XII year plan in Hydrocarbon space and increased focus on international business over the next two years EIL's current order book stands close to Rs 36.4 Bn offering eighteen months visibility. Company has been trying to increase contribution from overseas business from 12-15% currently to over 25% going ahead. Management has stated that company's primary focus would remain in the consultancy jobs in the overseas markets in addition to the domestic orders where company enjoys healthy market share. Consultancy order book stands close to Rs 26.8 Bn and turnkey orders stands at Rs 9.7 Bn. Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3

4 In FY16, management expects order book to grow on back of consultancy orders and LSTP to remain weak. This would lead to increase in operating margin for FY16/FY17. Management has guided for order inflows of Rs 23 Bn in FY16. We note that the order inflows has remain weak in India and order book currently stands much lower than 2011 peak of Rs 72 Bn. However, we highlight that with increasing proportion of consultancy orders, company could still maintain (grow) PAT going ahead. Order inflow (Rs mn) Consultancy LSTP Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Source: Company In our projections, we build flattish growth in domestic revenues in FY16 however expect recovery in FY17 driven by adequate execution of current order book and recovery in ordering activity through 2HFY16-FY17. We project revenue growth at 8.5% CAGR between FY from Rs Bn in FY15 to Rs 20.5 Bn in FY17. Within the revenue streams, we expect consultancy & engineering business to grow at 12% CAGR and Lumpsum turnkey project segment (LSTP) to grow at 3% CAGR between FY15-17 driven by 1) current order book at Rs 36.4 Bn 2) likely pick up in the domestic Hydrocarbon Industry mainly refining and petrochemicals through FY17 3) likely pick up in investments in projects in power and infrastructure space 4) growth in contribution from overseas Hydrocarbon markets mainly Middle East, Africa. Segment revenue (Rs bn) Consultancy & Engineering LTPLSTP 0.00 FY14 FY15 FY16(E) FY17(E) Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research We also believe that the operating margins have bottomed out and build EBITDA margin at 17% and 21% in FY16 and FY17 respectively. We highlight that the LSTP division has reported operating loss in 1HFY15 on back of provisions made with respect to change order in CPCL Coker plant. Management has stated that there could be potential write back of Rs 1.1 Bn for this project in FY16/FY17. Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 4

5 Operating margin trend EBITDA Rs bn (LHS) EBITDA% (RHS) FY14 FY15 FY16(E) FY17(E) Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research We recommend BUY on Engineers India Ltd with a price target of Rs.250 Valuation and recommendation At the current price of Rs 190, EIL stock is trading at 13.3 x P/E on FY 17E earnings. At the current price, company's stock looks attractively valued on a discounted cash flow basis. We maintain BUY rating on company's stock with a DCF based unchanged target price of Rs.250. Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 5

6 Bulk deals Trade details of bulk deals Date Scrip name Name of client Buy/ Quantity Avg. Sell of shares price 21-Sep AFEL Akash Singal S 28, Sep ARVINFRA Alpha Enterprises B 200, Sep BLISSGVS Shruti Vishal Rao S 650, Sep EXCAST Bp Fintrade Private Limited B 238, Sep PANCM Clsa Global Markets Pte Ltd S 81, Sep RAMMA Indigo Edutaiment P Ltd B 71, Sep SATYA Anaam Merchants Private Limited S 58, Sep SAUMYACAP Jinesh Ashwin Matalia S 39, Sep TTIL Ishan Haider Ali Mehdi Khan B 20, Source: BSE Gainers & Losers Nifty Gainers & Losers Price (Rs) chg (%) Index points Volume (mn) Gainers Hindalco Ind NA 8.0 Power Grid Corp NA 1.7 Axis Bank Ltd MA 7.5 Losers Reliance Ind 878 (1.9) NA 2.9 Asian Paints 830 (1.4) NA 0.7 Bosch Ltd 21,595 (1.3) MA 0.03 Source: Bloomberg Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 6

7 RATING SCALE Definitions of ratings BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 9 months ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 9 months REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 9 months SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 9 months NR Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only. RS Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. NA Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable NM Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. NOTE Our target prices are with a 9-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark. Fundamental Research Team Dipen Shah IT dipen.shah@kotak.com Sanjeev Zarbade Capital Goods, Engineering sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com Teena Virmani Construction, Cement teena.virmani@kotak.com Saday Sinha Banking, NBFC, Economy saday.sinha@kotak.com Arun Agarwal Auto & Auto Ancillary arun.agarwal@kotak.com Ruchir Khare Capital Goods, Engineering ruchir.khare@kotak.com Ritwik Rai FMCG, Media ritwik.rai@kotak.com Sumit Pokharna Oil and Gas sumit.pokharna@kotak.com Amit Agarwal Logistics, Transportation agarwal.amit@kotak.com Meeta Shetty, CFA Pharmaceuticals meeta.shetty@kotak.com Jatin Damania Metals & Mining jatin.damania@kotak.com Pankaj Kumar Midcap pankajr.kumar@kotak.com Jayesh Kumar Economy kumar.jayesh@kotak.com K. Kathirvelu Production k.kathirvelu@kotak.com Technical Research Team Shrikant Chouhan shrikant.chouhan@kotak.com Amol Athawale amol.athawale@kotak.com Derivatives Research Team Sahaj Agrawal sahaj.agrawal@kotak.com Rahul Sharma sharma.rahul@kotak.com Malay Gandhi malay.gandhi@kotak.com Prashanth Lalu prashanth.lalu@kotak.com Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 7

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