COCHIN SHIPYARD LTD (COSH)

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1 Amit Agarwal Stock details BSE code : NSE code : COCHINSHIP Market cap (Rs bn) : 77.0 Free float (%) : wk Hi/Lo (Rs) : 586/ 435 Avg daily volume : 1.44 mn Shares (o/s) (mn) : 136 Summary table (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E Sales 20,594 23,200 28,072 Growth (%) EBITDA 3,801 4,106 5,226 EBITDA margin (%) PBT 4,801 5,148 6,044 Net profit 3,121 3,418 4,013 EPS (Rs) Growth (%) CEPS (Rs) Book value (Rs/share) Dividend/share (Rs) ROE (%) ROCE (%) Net cash (debt) 20,032 27,109 26,342 Net WC (Days) (114) (97) (94) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/Cash Earnings P/BV (x) Source: Company, Kotak Securities Private Client Research Share holding pattern Domestic Institutions 10% Source: Capitaline One-year performance (Rel to Nifty) Corporate bodies 1% FIIs 2% Source: Bloomberg Public 12% Cochin Shipyard Ltd Promoter 75% Nifty 90 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 COCHIN SHIPYARD LTD (COSH) PRICE: RS.570 PRIVATE CLIENT RESEARCH OCTOBER 11, 2017 RECOMMENDATION: BUY TARGET PRICE: RS.740 FY19E PE: 19.3X Set to meet future needs Cochin Shipyard (COSH) is a public sector shipyard with an order book of ~ Rs.83 bn providing revenue visibility of 48 months. The current order-book comprises orders from the commercial segment, navy, coast guard and shiprepair segment. We estimate the company to continue to receive orders across segments with the order book growing at 20% CAGR with orders primarily coming from the Navy and Coast Guard. The company is also ramping up its capacity with a third dry-dock and an international ship-repair center. We are positive on the company for 1) Recurring orders from Navy and Coast guard and 2) Improvement in the prospects of commercial shipbuilding segment. High margin ship-repairs business is value additive for the company. Expect prospects to improve for the company going forward especially with the Make in India initiative of GOI. Estimate 13% earnings CAGR over FY17 to FY20E with improvement in return ratios post full utilization of IPO money. Value the stock at 25x FY19E PE which is at discount to the mean one year forward PE of major international ship building companies in the current environment. Initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and a TP of Rs 740. Healthy order book to grow at 20% CAGR COSH has a diversified order book at Rs 83 bn which we expect to grow at 20% perennially with orders coming from Navy, Coast guard, commercial segment and ship repair segment. The ever increasing order book provide long term revenue visibility. The company recently emerged L1 for an order worth Rs 54 bn for 16 Anti-Submarine Warfare- Shallow water vessel from the Indian navy to be executed over the next 5 years. Defence to provide growth impetus COSH is one of the yards empanelled with the Indian Navy and the coast guard for orders. With the defence budget of the Navy on an increasing trend, we believe that the Navy and coast guard would continue to be a regular source of orders for the company. Improving prospects of the commercial segment is positive for the company The shipbuilding industry is linked to the growth of the shipping companies fortunes, which in turn depends on global economic growth and World trade. With the recent upturn in economic growth in India and globally and a subsequent improvement in freight prices across all categories, the performance of the shipping industry is expected to improve, which bodes well for shipbuilding companies including COSH for orders from the commercial segment. Expanding capacity to meet growing needs COSH currently has two docks dock number one, primarily used for ship repair (Ship Repair Dock) and dock number two, primarily used for shipbuilding (Shipbuilding Dock). The Ship Repair Dock is one of the largest in India and is capable of accommodating vessels with a maximum capacity of 125,000 DWT. While the Shipbuilding Dock can accommodate vessels with a maximum capacity of 110,000 DWT. The company has raised Rs 9.8 bn through fresh issue of shares leading to 17% dilution. The money would be used to build a third dry-dock and an international ship-repair center which would cater to the future shipbuilding and ship-repair demand. Kotak Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by the Private Client Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the Institutional Equities Research Group of Kotak Securities Limited.

2 Effective cost management Internal cost control systems, fully depreciated assets, negative working capital, cost escalation clause with customers, long term contracts with suppliers and efficient technology has and would continue to enable the company to keep cost under control and deliver healthy margins and earnings growth. We initiate coverage with BUY recommendation on Cochin Shipyard Ltd with a price target of Rs.740 Valuation The company has very strong growth prospects going forward with regular flow of orders from the navy and the coast guard and improving commercial shipbuilding sector. We can also expect orders from the offshore segment with increasing crude prices. High margin ship-repairs business is value additive for the company. Estimate 13% earnings CAGR over FY17 to FY20E with improvement in return ratios post full utilization of IPO money. Initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and a TP of Rs 740 at 25x FY19E earnings. The target multiple of 25x FY19E is at steep discount to forward P/E of Korean and Singapore shipyards having poor earnings profile and which are much larger in scale and which cater primarily to commercial segment. Risk and Concerns Delay in execution of large orders Fall in Crude oil price could impact the E&P capex cycle and result in reduced demand for offshore vessels. Declining premium in prices of second hand vessels over new ones increases risk towards order inflows. Delay in payment from stressed ship-owners leading to higher working capital requirement. Reduced allocation to navy from the defence pie Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2

3 ABOUT THE COMPANY Cochin Shipyard (COSH) is a Government promoted company, incorporated on March 29, 1972 and were conferred the 'Miniratna' status in 2008, by the Department of Public Enterprise. It is the largest public sector shipyard in India in terms of dock capacity. The company caters to clients engaged in the defence sector in India and clients engaged in the commercial sector worldwide. In addition to shipbuilding and ship repair, COSH also offer marine engineering training. COSH currently has two docks dock number one, primarily used for ship repair (Ship Repair Dock) and dock number two, primarily used for shipbuilding (Shipbuilding Dock). The Ship Repair Dock is one of the largest in India and is capable of accommodating vessels with a maximum capacity of 125,000 DWT. While the Shipbuilding Dock can accommodate vessels with a maximum capacity of 110,000 DWT. The shipyard is strategically located along the west coast of India, midway on the main sea route connecting Europe, West Asia and the Pacific Rim, a busy international maritime route. In addition, the shipyard is located close to the Kochi port as well as to offshore oil fields on the western coast of India and relatively close to the Middle East. Business Segments Cochin Shipyard Business Segments Defence Commercial Ship building Ship Repair Marine Engg Training Source: Company Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3

4 INVESTMENT ARGUMENTS COSH present across all segments of shipbuilding Diversified offering Over years COSH has built and delivered vessels across broad classifications including bulk carriers, tankers, Platform Supply Vessels (PSV), Anchor Handling Tug Supply vessels (AHTSs), launch barges, tugs, passenger vessels and Fast Patrol Vessels (FPV). To elaborate, COSH has clients in the defence sector in India and has clients engaged in the commercial sector worldwide. The diversified offering has enabled the company to beat the cyclicality of the ship-building business. Break-up of revenues for the last five years for COSH Segment (%) Defence revenue Commercial revenue Shipbuilding Ship repair Other operating revenue Source: Company Current order book Vessel Client Area No s Anti Submarine vessel (L1 bidder) Indian Navy Defence 16 Indigenous Aircraft Carrier Indian Navy Defence 1 Fast Patrol Vessel Indian Coast Guard Defence 4 Jacket Launch Barge NPCC, Abu Dhabi Commercial 1 Double Ended Ro-Ro Ferry Corporation of Cochin Commercial 2 Technology Demonstration Vessel DRDO Defence Pax cum 150 Ton Cargo Vessel A&N Administration Commercial Pax cum 1000 Ton Cargo Vessel A&N Administration Commercial 2 Source: Company COSH currently has a shipbuilding order book of Rs 83 bn (including L1 bid of Rs 54 bn from the Indian Navy). The contracts that the company enters into with clients stipulate the agreed specifications of the vessel and certification society with which the vessel is intended to be certified. Typically, COSH is permitted to subcontract any portion of the construction work of the vessel to subcontractors, other than few major sub-contract tasks such as the main hull structure and superstructures for which the company require the prior approval of the client. The company recently emerged as a L1 bidder for an order worth Rs 54 bn for 16 Anti-Submarine Warfare- Shallow water vessel from the Indian navy to be executed over the next 5 years. Defense is a big opportunity for COSH India's growing defense expenditure presents a huge opportunity India is set to spend ~Rs 600 bn over the next five years on improving its military infrastructure and of which a large part would be allocated to the Navy. Due to the 'Buy Indian, Make Indian' policy put in place by the MOD, a large part of this sum will go to domestic companies. Even in case of imports, there is an offset clause that benefits domestic companies. For any defense contract for capital purchases of over USD 60 mn (Rs3bn), the foreign vendor is required to allocate 30% of the contract value to Indian players, primarily in the defense, internal security and civil aerospace sectors. According to the Ministry of Defense (MOD), there could be an offset opportunity of USD 15 bn over the next five years. Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 4

5 Share from the annual budget for COSH The Government has 4 dedicated Shipyards - Mazgaon, Garden Reach, Goa and Cochin. The requirement of Navy & Coast Guard is split amongst the 4, leaving only the spill over, if any, to non defence shipyards. It is due to this reason, we believe that the COSH would one of the companies which would benefit from regular flow of orders from the Government, especially smaller ships. We estimate the company to regularly receive orders from the Navy and the Coast guard which is a big positive for the company. Defence allocation by GOI Indian Defence Budget allocation (Rs crs) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Total allocation 147, , , , , , ,000 YoY growth (%) Allocation to Navy (assumption) Navy (17%) 25,048 27,880 32,810 38,080 41,820 45,560 46,580 Orders for smaller ships (25% of navy) 6,262 6,970 8,203 9,520 10,455 11,390 11,645 Source: Ministry of Defence, Industry Commercial shipping segment showing signs of improvement Order book status across categories September-17 September tonnes Tonnage Order book % Tonnage Order book % Crude 433,852 61, ,283 64, Products 41,517 4, ,842 5, Bulk 706,108 61, , , Containers 246,255 31, ,355 39, Source: Bloomberg Till date, the supply side was the source of most of the problems for the shipping sector, which as per latest data (above table) is showing signs of easing. We see the current levels of shipping market to be the bottom of cycle with improvement expected over the next two financial years. The improvement should translate into improvement in ordering in the commercial segment which is positive for commercial shipbuilding companies including COSH. Broadly, we expect order-book of COSH to grow at 20% CAGR with regular flow of orders coming from the Navy and Coast guard and improving contribution from the commercial segment and ship repair segment. The ever increasing order book provide long term revenue visibility for the company. Strong collaborations ensure quality execution Collaborations and MOUs COSH has formed successful business partnerships with leading technology players in the area of shipbuilding and ship-repair. These collaborations help the company with additional business and ensure quality of the products manufactured by the company. Some of the MoUs that the company has entered into include: Collaborations and MOUs by Cochin Shipyard Business Partner Date Scope of work LDCL 12-Apr-13 Undertakes dry-dock and afloat repairs of their vessels. CUSAT 26-May-14 CUSAT has reserved two seats in their MTech degree course in Marine engineering. DGLL 21-Oct-15 Undertakes dry-dock repairs of their vessels on a nomination basis. DCI 02-Nov-15 Undertakes repair of DCI's dredgers on a nomination basis. Techcross 04-Nov-15 COSH receive technical support and engineering and provide shipyard support services to Techcross such as office, warehousing and installation services Wartsila 13-Jan-16 Wartsila has set up a containerised, self-sufficient workshop within the shipyard, primarily catering to propeller Metallurgical repairs. Source: Company Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 5

6 Competition waning from private yards in India Shipbuilding business is a very competitive business and COSH consistently face competition from existing competitors located both in India and globally, and in particular from shipyards in China, South Korea and Japan. The competition covers areas like 1) Timeliness of order execution: 2) Fulfillment of all contractual covenants: and 3) Price and quality of the vessels constructed In the last 3 years we have observed that, two big private shipyards ABG and Bharati- going bankrupt due to unplanned expansion, huge debt and poor shipbuilding market eliminating significant competition for COSH from the private sector. Domestic competitors for Cochin Shipyard Defence Mazgaon Dock Goa Shipyard Limited Garden Reach Shipbuilders L&T Shipyard Reliance Defence Source: Industry Commercial L&T Shipyard ABG Bharati Reliance Defence Outlook remains strong for COSH Commercial segment - The shipbuilding industry is linked to the growth of the shipping companies fortunes, which in turn depends on global economic growth and World trade. With the recent upturn in trade and a subsequent improvement in freight prices across all categories, the performance of the shipping industry is expected to improve, which bodes well for shipbuilding companies including COSH for orders from the commercial segment. Outlook for shipbuilding is very strong in all the segments Defence segment - COSH is one of the yards empanelled with the Indian Navy for order flow form the Navy & Coast Guard. With the defence budget of the Navy on an increasing trend, we believe that the Navy and coast guard would continue to be a regular source of orders for the company. Offshore segment - Indian shipbuilders also have proven capabilities in construction of ships for the offshore segment and have a market share of around 6% in the deliveries made in the past few years. We see this as another source of orders for COSH despite low oil prices. Ship-repair Ship-repair is a high margin business with high capital turnover ratio. The management of the company indicated that the company was not able to accept many orders in this segment due to severe capacity constraints. The upcoming international ship-repair center is expected to fill this gap and give a fillip to operating margins and return ratios of the company going forward. Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 6

7 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Strong order-flow to drive revenues at 19% CAGR over FY17 to FY20E We expect a 20% CAGR in order book with orders from commercial, navy, coast guard and the repair segment which would drive revenues for the company. Financial (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Order book 29,000 83,000* 100, ,525 Growth % Average construction period (Yrs.) Revenue 15,832 19,900 20,594 23,200 28,072 34,248 Raw material cost 11,413 12,295 13,141 14,569 17,628 21,622 % of sales Source: Company and Kotak Securities Private Client Research; * FY18 Order book includes L1 bid of Rs.54bn from the Indian Navy Capex to ensure timely execution COSH currently has two docks dock number one, primarily used for ship repair (Ship Repair Dock) and dock number two, primarily used for shipbuilding (Shipbuilding Dock). The company currently enjoys cost advantage given the fullydepreciated facility. The company would be ramping up its capacity with a third dry-dock (measuring 310 x 75 x 13 Meters) and an international ship-repair center. The capacity addition will enable the company to construct bigger and complex vessels as well as undertake repairs of vessels like LNG carriers, semi-submersibles, jack up rigs, and drill ships. We estimate the new facilities to come-up in the next 3 to 5 years and double the capacity of the company. We have drawn a capex plan of Rs 18 bn for the company over FY17 to FY20E for the same. We estimate the balance capex to spill-over beyond FY20E. Medium term capex plan for COSH Purpose Amount (Rs bn) Capex for the 3rd Dry-dock 18 Capex for an International ship-repair center 10 Money raised through fresh issue 10 Funding through internal accrual 18 Source: Company and Kotak Securities Private Client Research Balance Sheet to remain strong With healthy operational cash flow generation and negative working capital for the company, we estimate the Balance Sheet of the company to remain strong in near term. Cash flow and BS sheet analysis Rs mn FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Gross Debt 1,491 1,491 1,467 1,495 1,496 Net worth 19,375 20,310 32,391 35,441 39,000 Operating cash flow 10,533 3,178 3,588 7,196 7,034 Cash 19,710 21,523 28,576 27,837 27,909 Capex ,000 7,000 6,000 Source: Company and Kotak Securities Private Client Research A large part of the cash in the books of the company includes cash advances from customer including Govt of India. With limited capex in the past and healthy operating cash-flow generation, the cash in the books of the accounts has increased to Rs 21.5 bn at end of FY17. Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 7

8 Return ratios to improve from FY18 Return Ratios to improve going forward With improving operational performance and asset turnover ratio, especially post infusion of IPO money we expect the return ratios of the company to improve going forward. Returns profile for COSH 25.0 EBIDTA margins (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Source: Company, Kotak Securities Private Client Research VALUATION We initiate coverage with BUY recommendation on Cochin Shipyard Ltd with a price target of Rs.740 We believe that COSH is well placed and is ahead of the curve to exploit the massive opportunity that India's defense sector offers in the next few years. Commercial shipbuilding, offshore vessels and ship-repair helps the company beat the cyclicality associated with any one sector. It also has the requisite and best-inclass tie-ups. Also, COSH offers the only credible shipyard for investors to India's defense business. We are positive on the company for 1) Recurring orders from Navy and Coast guard and 2) Improvement in the prospects of commercial shipbuilding segment. Expect prospects to improve for the company going forward especially with the Make in India initiative of GOI. Estimate 13% earnings CAGR over FY17 to FY20E with improvement in return ratios post full utilization of IPO money. Value the stock at 25x FY19E PE which is at discount to one year forward PE of major international shipbuilding companies having weak earnings profiles and returns ratios in the current environment. Initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and a TP of Rs 740. PEER Analysis Due to weak commercial shipbuilding markets, most shipbuilding companies continue to report weak financials with stretched valuations. Amidst these, COSH provides an opportunity to investors to invest in a shipbuilding stock with regular flow of orders, with diversified offering, with attractive valuation and a stock that would benefit significantly because of Make in India initiative of the government. Peer comparison PE EV/EBIDTA ROE Company Area Country FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY19 Samsung Heavy Commercial Korea Hyundai Heavy Commercial Korea China Shipbuilding industry Corp. Commercial China Average Cochin Shipyard Commercial/ Defence India Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Securities Private Client Research Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 8

9 FINANCIALS Profit and Loss Statement (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net sales 20,594 23,200 28,072 34,248 Operating cost 13,141 14,569 17,628 21,622 Employee cost 2,167 2,666 3,043 3,750 Other expenses 1,485 1,859 2,174 2,622 - Operating expenses 16,793 19,094 22,846 27,995 Operating profit 3,801 4,106 5,226 6,253 + Other income 1,490 1,600 1,700 1,700 - Depreciation ,050 - Interest Tax 1,680 1,730 2,031 2,288 PAT 3,121 3,418 4,013 4,522 + (Associates-Minorities) Consolidated PAT 3,121 3,418 4,013 4,522 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Cash Flow Statement (Rs mn) (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Consolidated PAT 3,121 3,418 4,013 4,522 + Non-cash items ,050 Cash profit 3,506 3,881 4,802 5,571 - Inc. in working capital (2,394) (1,463) Operating cash flow 3,178 3,588 7,196 7,034 - Capital expenditure 686 5,000 7,000 6,000 Free cash flow 2,491 (1,412) 196 1,034 - Dividends 1, Equity raised - 9, Debt raised - (24) Inc. in minority interests Investments (521) Miscellaneous items Net cash flow 1,813 7,053 (738) 72 + Opening cash 19,710 21,523 28,576 27,837 Closing cash balance 21,523 28,576 27,837 27,909 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research, *on Net sales Balance Sheet (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Equity Reserves 19,177 31,031 34,081 37,640 Networth 20,310 32,391 35,441 39,000 Debt 1,491 1,467 1,495 1,496 Minority interests Capital employed 21,801 33,858 36,936 40,495 Fixed Assets 4,245 8,783 14,994 19,944 Investments 2,327 2,500 2,500 2,500 Working capital (6,294) (6,001) (8,395) (9,857) Cash 21,523 28,576 27,837 27,909 Capital deployed 21,801 33,858 36,936 40,495 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Ratio Analysis (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Revenue growth (%) Earnings growth (%) Operating margins (%) FDEPS (Rs/share) CEPS (Rs/share) DPS (Rs/share) BV (Rs/share) PER (x) P/C (x) Dividend yield (%) P/B (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/ EBITDA (x) Debt/Equity (x) Working capital turn (days) (114.5) (96.7) (93.6) (97.3) Dividend payout (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 9

10 RATING SCALE Definitions of ratings BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 9 months ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 9 months REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 9 months SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 9 months NR Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only. RS Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. NA Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable NM Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. NOTE Our target prices are with a 9-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH TEAM Sanjeev Zarbade Ruchir Khare Amit Agarwal Nipun Gupta K. Kathirvelu Capital Goods, Engineering Capital Goods, Engineering Logistics, Paints, Transportation Information Technology Production Teena Virmani Ritwik Rai Jatin Damania Jayesh Kumar Construction, Cement FMCG, Media Metals & Mining Economy Arun Agarwal Sumit Pokharna Pankaj Kumar Ashini Shah Auto & Auto Ancillary Oil and Gas Midcap Midcap TECHNICAL RESEARCH TEAM Shrikant Chouhan Amol Athawale DERIVATIVES RESEARCH TEAM Sahaj Agrawal Malay Gandhi Prashanth Lalu Prasenjit Biswas Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 10

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COCHIN SHIPYARD LTD (COSH)

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