Presentation on Equity Markets. 15 th Jun 18
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- Edwina Gilmore
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1 Presentation on Equity Markets 15 th Jun 18
2 Four Pillars of Indian Equity Market Macros Flows Earnings Valuations
3 Broader Macros: Could weaken (due to crude & twin deficits) Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) 3
4 Domestic Macros: Update May CPI Inflation has firmed up further to 4.87%. Core inflation at 6%. RBI first rate hike since One more rate hike likely in August. RBI policy stance is neutral. Need to watch out for MSP hikes. IIP at 4.9% aided by 13% y-o-y growth in capital goods production Higher current account deficit at 1.9% in Q4FY18. Rupee to remain weak in FY19 if crude remains at elevated level. Monsoons to be normal. Positive for Auto/FMCG/Agrochem. Government spending could get fast tracked (Roads/Railways/Ganga cleaning 4
5 Global Updates US economy remains strong. Unemployment at low levels. Fed rate hikes. Negative for foreign fund flow into emerging markets ECB rollback of QE program Crude continues to remain at elevated level. Trade related issues between US and China/EU On the positive side, geopolitical issues are seen easing 5
6 Micros: Mixed, but improving Cement, commercial vehicles, two wheelers, services credit offtake and airport traffic showing improving trends Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) 6
7 Flows: Pillars of Indian Equity Market MF inflows very strong at USD 8.8 bn in CYTD led by strong SIP flows into equity MFs. FII flows very poor. Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Source: SEBI website 7
8 Flows: Indian better than others India better off than other EMs and Asian markets (in CYTD flows). India fared better even in CY17. Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) 8
9 Earnings: Aggressive future estimates KIE is building in Nifty earnings growth of 23% in FY19E and 19% in FY20E. Numbers look aggressive but the base of FY18 is very low. Expect RoEs to improve to more than 15% in FY20E (from 12.7% in FY18). Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) 9
10 Valuations: Global comparison India looks expensive on absolute and relative basis Vs other markets. However, if India s high earnings growth forecasts materializes then on PEG* basis it can deserve to trade at premium valuations. Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE); PEG stands for Price/Earnings to Growth 10
11 Nifty Valuations: On the higher side Nifty valuations are rich at 18x Fw PE but not in bubble zone. Further re-rating looks difficult. Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) 11
12 Valuations: Earnings Yield Vs. Bond Yield Bond Yields are far higher then Earnings yield. This puts Equity market valuations at risk. Source: Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) 12
13 Mid Cap Vs Nifty Valuations Orange line in the adjacent graph is the Mid Cap Fw PE and light Green is Nifty Fw PE (both are on rolling 12 months Fw earnings). The Mid Cap Fw PE is still very high as compared to the Nifty (even after the sharp correction). The reason could be a sharper reduction in forward estimates of Mid Cap companies. The Mid Cap Index is still trading at more than 15% premium to the Nifty (in terms of Fw PE). Source: Bloomberg 13
14 Investment Strategy Returns to be based on earnings delivery rather than PE expansion. Several midcaps have corrected in Additional Surveillance measures by SEBI, Corporate governance issues & Auditor related issues. Need to be very selective while choosing midcaps. Focus on Good management, superior earnings growth & reasonable valuations. Apportion larger allocation towards large caps (that too in safer names). Preferred Sectors: Automobiles, Pharmaceuticals, Agro Chemicals, Housing Finance, Metals and Infra & Construction. 14
15 Stocks: Research Recommendations Source: Kotak PCG Research & Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Kotak Securities - Private Client Group - Path: Login to > Research > Equity Reports > Stock Recommendation Snapshot Kotak Securities - Institutional Equities - Path: Login to > Research > Equity Reports > India Daily Institutional Equities Research Report 15
16 16
17 FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH TEAM Sanjeev Zarbade Ruchir Khare Jatin Damania Jayesh Kumar Capital Goods, Engineering Capital Goods, Engineering Metals & Mining Economy Teena Virmani Sumit Pokharna Pankaj Kumar K. Kathirvelu Construction, Cement Oil and Gas Midcap Production Arun Agarwal Amit Agarwal Nipun Gupta Auto & Auto Ancillary Logistics, Paints, Transportation Information Technology TECHNICAL RESEARCH TEAM Shrikant Chouhan Amol Athawale DERIVATIVES RESEARCH TEAM Sahaj Agrawal Malay Gandhi Prashanth Lalu Prasenjit Biswas, CMT, CFTe
18 18
19 By referring to any particular sector, Kotak Securities Limited does not provide any promise or assurance of favourable view for a particular industry or sector or business group in any manner. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and take professional advice before investing. Such representations are not indicative of future results. 19
20 Thank You 20
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STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS PRIVATE CLIENT RESEARCH MARCH 8, 2013 Mkt Latest Price as Latest Latest Price Upside/ EPS (Rs) PE (x) RoE (%) P/ABV (x) Banking Allahabad Bank 71,625 04-Feb-13 159 150 REDUCE 143
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Morning Insight NOVEMBER 22, 2018 % Chg 21-Nov 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 35,200 (0.8) 2.6 (8.1) NIFTY Index 10,600 (0.5) 2.9 (8.4) NSEBANK Index 26,262 0.6 4.7 (7.1) NIFTY 500 Index
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STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS PRIVATE CLIENT RESEARCH MARCH 21, 2017 Agri-Products Insecticides (India) Ltd ACCUMULATE 555 577 621 11.9 09-Feb-17 11,463 28.2 38.8 19.7 14.3 13.4 16.2 11.7 9.2 Finolex Industries
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Amit Agarwal agarwal.amit@kotak.com +91 22 6218 6439 Stock details BSE code : 540678 NSE code : COCHINSHIP Market cap (Rs bn) : 77.0 Free float (%) : 25.0 52 wk Hi/Lo (Rs) : 586/ 435 Avg daily volume :
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Morning Insight % Chg 22-Nov 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 34,981 (0.6) 2.5 (8.6) NIFTY Index 10,527 (0.7) 2.7 (9.0) NSEBANK Index 25,999 (1.0) 3.7 (8.0) NIFTY 500 Index 8,879 (0.7) 3.5
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PRIVATE CLIENT RESEARCH JANUARY 23, 2018 Sanjeev Zarbade sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com +91 22 6218 6424 Stock details BSE code : 500279 Market cap (Rs mn) : 11660.5 Free float (%) : 42% 52-wk Hi/Lo (Rs) :
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PRIVATE CLIENT RESEARCH SEPTEMBER 21, 2017 Amit Agarwal agarwal.amit@kotak.com +91 22 6218 6439 Stock details BSE code : 507880 NSE code : VIPIND Market cap (Rs bn) : 35.7 Free float (%) : 47.5 52 wk Hi/Lo
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Morning Insight OCTOBER 30, 2018 % Chg 29-Oct 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 34,067 2.2 (6.0) (8.8) NIFTY Index 10,251 2.2 (6.2) (9.1) NSEBANK Index 24,960 2.2 (0.6) (9.7) NIFTY 500 Index
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Morning Insight % Chg 2-Aug 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 3,97 0.5 4.2 10.6 NIFTY Index 11,739 0.4 4.1 9. NSEBANK Index 2,270 0.0 2.3 6.2 NIFTY 500 Index 9,96 0.3 4.2 7.3 CNXMcap Index
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Morning Insight % Chg 21-Feb 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 35,898 0.4 (1.9) 2.0 NIFTY Index 10,790 0.5 (1.6) 1.8 NSEBANK Index 27,052 0.4 (1.7) 3.0 NIFTY 500 Index 8,902 0.6 (2.8) (0.4)
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Morning Insight AUGUST 28, 2018 % Chg 27-Aug 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 38,694 1.2 3.6 10.8 NIFTY Index 11,692 1.2 3.7 10.2 NSEBANK Index 28,264 1.5 2.3 7.6 NIFTY 500 Index 9,959 1.1
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Morning Insight OCTOBER 16, 2018 % Chg 15-Oct 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 34,865 0.4 (8.5) (4.6) NIFTY Index 10,513 0.4 (8.7) (4.6) NSEBANK Index 25,388 (0.0) (6.5) (5.7) NIFTY 500 Index
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Morning Insight % Chg 22-Feb 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 35,871 (0.1) (1.6) 2.5 NIFTY Index 10,792 0.0 (1.2) 2.5 NSEBANK Index 26,868 (0.7) (2.2) 3.3 NIFTY 500 Index 8,920 0.2 (2.3)
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Morning Insight OCTOBER 1, 2018 % Chg 28-Sep 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 36,227 (0.3) (6.9) 3.4 NIFTY Index 10,930 (0.4) (6.9) 3.2 NSEBANK Index 25,120 0.3 (11.1) (4.6) NIFTY 500 Index
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Morning Insight % Chg 15-Mar 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 38,024 0.7 6.2 5.7 NIFTY Index 11,427 0.7 6.6 5.8 NSEBANK Index 29,381 1.6 9.7 9.5 NIFTY 500 Index 9,499 0.6 7.6 4.5 CNXMcap
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Morning Insight OCTOBER 17, 2018 % Chg 16-Oct 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 35,162 0.9 (7.7) (3.2) NIFTY Index 10,585 0.7 (8.1) (3.2) NSEBANK Index 25,590 0.8 (5.8) (4.1) NIFTY 500 Index
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AUGUST 2, 2017 Monthly Market Strategy December 2018 Sanjeev Zarbade sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com +91 22 6218 6424 MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2018 Global markets bounced back strongly in November on lower
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Morning Insight % Chg 7-Aug 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 37,666 (0.1) 5.6 7.0 NIFTY Index 11,389 0.0 5.7 6.3 NSEBANK Index 27,876 (0.1) 5.2 7.8 NIFTY 500 Index 9,705 (0.0) 5.6 3.0 CNXMcap
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Morning Insight JANUARY 8, 2019 % Chg 7-Jan 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 35,850 0.4 0.5 4.3 NIFTY Index 10,772 0.4 0.7 4.4 NSEBANK Index 27,305 0.4 2.7 11.7 NIFTY 500 Index 9,081 0.3
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Morning Insight JANUARY 22, 2019 % Chg 21-Jan 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 36,579 0.5 2.3 6.6 NIFTY Index 10,962 0.5 1.9 6.4 NSEBANK Index 27,534 0.3 2.5 9.8 NIFTY 500 Index 9,155 0.2
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Initiating Coverage % Chg 20-Dec 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 36,265 (0.6) 3.0 (1.6) NIFTY Index 10,952 (0.1) 3.3 (1.7) NSEBANK Index 27,275 (0.1) 3.9 6.6 NIFTY 500 Index 9,234 (0.1)
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Morning Insight % Chg 14-Dec 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 35,963 0.1 2.3 (5.6) NIFTY Index 10,805 0.1 2.2 (6.2) NSEBANK Index 26,826 0.0 3.5 (1.2) NIFTY 500 Index 9,091 0.2 1.9 (7.2)
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