Impact Assessment of R&D Investment in Korea

Transcription

1 STEPI(Science and Technology Policy Institute) Impact Assessment of R&D Investment in Korea January 217 Helsinki, Finland Seogwon Hwang Research Fellow at STEPI, Republic of Korea

2 Three Different Perspectives : Academic, Economic and Societal Impacts Academic Impacts Research Impacts - Not the main focus of our team s study yet Economic Impact Assessment - Rich data and quantitative methodologies - Pursuing better policies by looking at the past. Societal Impact Assessment - No well-known quantitative analysis tools - Informed Delphi Survey based on insights of experts - Pursuing better policies by looking at the future. 2

3 Questions for impact assessment of R&D investment in Korea Q 1. Impact evaluation of government R&D subsidy on firms performance? Q 2. Expected impacts of government R&D investment on societal changes in the future? 3

4 Framework of Impact Assessment of R&D Investment

5 Economic Impacts of Government R&D Investment

6 (Hwang et al., Impact Assessment of R&D Subsidy on Input Additionality and Firms Performance Using Firm Level Data: the Korean Case, OECD Bluesky 216 at Ghent)

7 Methodologies, For Examples (Hwang et al., Impact Assessment of R&D Subsidy on Input Additionality and Firms Performance Using Firm Level Data: the Korean Case, OECD Bluesky 216 at Ghent)

8 Methodologies, For Examples (Hwang et al., Impact Assessment of R&D Subsidy on Input Additionality and Firms Performance Using Firm Level Data: the Korean Case, OECD Bluesky 216 at Ghent)

9 (Hwang et al., Impact Assessment of R&D Subsidy on Input Additionality and Firms Performance Using Firm Level Data: the Korean Case, OECD Bluesky 216 at Ghent)

10 Government R&D Input additionality Impact Inter-industrial spillover effect output elasticity of government supported R&D stock in other industries.219 impact on SMEs R&D investment 57.7/27.2% additional increase after 2/3 years cumulatively no cumulative effect after 4 years 22.3% additional increase of SMEs asset after 5 years 14.6% additional increase after 5 years for SMEs ROA of SMEs: 3.5% additional decrease compared to non-supported firms 15.5% additional increase of SMEs employment after 5 years Hwang et al., 216, Impact Assessment of R&D Investment: Framework Building and a Pilot Analysis, STEPI

11 Societal Impacts of Government R&D Investment (Expected)

12 Basic Concepts Societal Changes based on STI(Science, Technology and Innovation) Collection of statistics for societal changes closely related to STI among huge number of state variables for a society 23 Societal Change Indicies: the difference between expected societal change statistics in 23 and observed statistics at present. Societal Change Statistics (%) vs. 23 Societal Change Indicies (%p) Impacts of STI on societal changes 23 Societal Change Indicies Ⅹ the degree of STI Contributions Impacts of government R&D investment on societal changes 23 Societal Change Indicies Ⅹ the degree of STI Contributions Ⅹ the degree of government R&D contributions 12

13 Statistics for Societal Change: Work 1-(1) Utilization of Smart Work(%) 1-(2) Utilization of Mobile Services for Works(%) 1-(3) Density of Robots(person) 1-(4) Status of Robot Industry Workforce(person) , 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - 1-(5) Utilization of ICT in Business Process Improvement(%) 1-(6) Utilization of Cloud Computing Service(%) 1-(7) Utilization of Big Data Technology/Service(%) 1-(8) The Number of Alternative Occupation by Artificial Intelligence(%) % 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 44.1 % 55.9 % Above.5 Below.5

14 Statistics for Societal Change: Healthcare 2-(1) Practice Rate of Moderate Physical Activity(%) (2) Degree of Perceived Stress(%) (3) Health Life Expectancy (age) (4) Market Size of BT based Healthcare Industry (one hundred thousand US $) 2-(5) Cancer Survival Rate(%) 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,

15 Statistics for Societal Change: Relationship 3-(1) Social Network Support(%) 3-(2) Frequency of Family Contact(%) 3-(3) Frequency of Private Instant Message Usage(%) (4) Frequency of Private SNS Usage(%) 3-(5) Mobile Phone Usage Time(hours)

16 Statistics for Societal Change: Political and Social Activity (1) Voting Rate(%) ( ) ( ) (28.4.9) (21.6.2) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2) Participation Rate of Social Organization(%) 4th local election 17th presidential election 18th the assembly election 5th local election 19th the assembly election 18th presidential election 6th local election

17 remittance payment P2P Loans online asset fund social trading crowd funding Statistics for Societal Change: Trading 5-(1) Internet Shopping Utilization Rate(%) 5-(2) Internet Banking Utilization Rate(%) 5-(3) Mobile Shopping Trading Ratio(%) 5-(4) Social Commerce Trading Ratio(%) % 1.% % 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.%.8%.6%.4%.2%.% (5) Crowd Funding Utilization (%) 5-(6) P2P Loans Ratio (1 hundred thousand dollar) 5-(7) O2O Service Experience Rate(%) , 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 3,64 5,78 5, ,

18 Statistics for Societal Change: Education 6-(1) Utilization of KOCW 6-(2) E-learning Ratio(%) 3,, 25.% 2,5, 2.% 2,, 15.% 1,5, 1,, 1.% 5, 5.% -.% (3) Private e-learning Utilization Rate(%) 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.% 6-(4) Private Educational Expenditure Ratio(%).%

19 Statistics for Societal Change: Food 7-(1) Experience Rate of Diet Supplements(%) 5. 7-(2) HMR Production to Food Consumption Ratio(%) 2.5% 7-(3) Instant food Sales to Food Consumption Ratio(%) 2.% 4. 2.% 1.5% % 1.% 1.% 1..5%.5% %.% 7-(4) Healthcare Food Sales to Food Consumption Ratio(%) 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5% 7-(5) Import Ratio of GMO Agricultural Products(%) 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.%.%

20 Statistics for Societal Change: Housing and Home Life 8-(1) Smart Home Market Size(1 hundred thousand dollar) 8-(2) Household Labor Time (hours) 8-(3) Time for Personal Care Activity(minute) 8-(4) Penetration Rate of Household Robot(1 hundred thousand dollar) 12, , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, , 15, 1, 5,

21 Statistics for Societal Change: Safety and Security 9-(1) Violent Crime Rate(%) (2) Disaster Damages per 1, Population (1 thousand dollar) 2,5. 2,. 1,5. 1, (3) Lead Time for Torrential Rain Alert/Warning(minute) (4) Safety Accident Death Rate(%)

22 Statistics for Societal Change: Government Services 1-(1) The Number of Usages for Government Portal Services per 1, Population 1-(2) Corruption Perceptions Index 1-(3) E-government Service Utilization Rate(%) 1-(4) Mobile E-government Service Utilization Rate(%)

23 Statistics for Societal Change: Energy and Natural Environment 11-(1) Electric Power Consumption per Capita (kwh) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - 11-(2) Air Pollutant Emission per 1, Population(ton) 4,75. 4, ,7. 4, ,65. 4, , ,6. 4,55. 4, ,5. 4,45. 4, (3) Share of New and Renewable Energy(%)

24 Statistics for Societal Change: Leisure 12-(1) Average Daily Game Play Time(hours) (4) Number of Overseas trip per Capita 12-(2) Sales of Digital Sound Source(1 million dollar) physical mobile streaming download 12-(3) Average Leisure Time (hours) 12-(5) Share of Household Expenditure on Entertainment and Culture(%) % 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.% 2.8%

25 Statistics for Societal Change: Transportaion/Locomotion 13-(1) Electric Car Penetration Rate 1,4 1,2 1, (2) Commuting Time (minute) (3) Usage of Rapid Transit Railway per Capita

26 Statistics for Societal Change: Social Problems in Real Space (1) Suicide Rate (%, per 1,) (4) Youth Unemployment Rate(%) (2) Relative Poverty Rate (%) (5) Temporary Employment Rate(%) 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, (3) Single Person Household Ratio(%) (6) Average Wage Difference between Permanent and Temporary Employees(%) single person Ratio 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% 14-(7) Labor Productivity Differences across Firm Size (1 thousand dollar)

27 Statistics for Societal Change: Social Problems in Virtual Space 15-(1) Internet Addiction Rate (%) 15-(2) Smart Divide Index 15-(3) The Number of Reported Hacking per 1, population 15-(4) The Number of Cyber Crime per 1, Population highrisk potent ial-risk

28 Informed Delphi Survey for Societal Changes and R&D Contributions (1 st round, Exemplary)

29 23 Societal Change Indices Rank Indicator Social change index (Simple prediction) 1 Smart home market size Utilization of KOCW(Number of KOCW downloading/per 1, population) Status of robot industry workforce Density of robots The number of usages for government portal services per 1, population Market size of BT based healthcare industry Number of overseas trip per capita Usage of rapid transit railway per capita Sales of digital sound source Share of household expenditure on entertainment and culture Household labor time Mobile shopping trading ratio (mobile shopping consumption expenditure/household final consumption expenditure) Violent crime rate Utilization of mobile for works Average leisure time 21.55

30 23 Societal Change Indices Gap Rank Indicator Social change index (Policy goal - Simple prediction) 1 Number of reported hacking per 1, population Number of cyber crime per 1, population Suicide rate Internet addiction rate Disaster damages per 1, population Violent crime rate Air pollutant emission per 1, population Commuting time Market size of BT based healthcare industry Household labor time Single person household ratio Labor Productivity Differences across Firm Size Social network support Usage of rapid transit railway per capita Utilization of cloud computing service 11.7

31 Impact of Government R&D on Societal Change in 23 Rank Indicator Government R&D Impact(Simple prediction) 1 The number of usages for government portal services per 1, population Status of robot industry workforce Smart home market size Utilization of KOCW(Number of KOCW downloading/per 1, population) Density of robots Market size of BT based healthcare industry Usage of rapid transit railway per capita Lead time for torrential rain alert/warning Violent crime rate Mobile e-government service utilization rate Number of overseas trip per capita Household labor time Penetration rate of Household robot Sales of digital sound source Electric car penetration rate 3.6

32 Impact Gap of Government R&D on Societal Change in 23 Rank Indicator Government R&D Impact Gap (Policy goal - Simple prediction) 1 Number of reported hacking per 1, population Number of cyber crime per 1, population Disaster damages per 1, population Violent crime rate Suicide rate Internet addiction rate Air pollutant emission per 1, population Market size of BT based healthcare industry Status of robot industry workforce Density of robots Usage of rapid transit railway per capita Commuting time Electric car penetration rate Lead time for torrential rain alert/warning Share of new and renewable energy 2.45

33 Gov. R&D investment in 215 vs. Contribution of Gov. R&D to Societal Change in 23, Expected Government R&D Investment in 215 Contribution of R&D on Societal Change

34 Conclusions Economic Impact of R&D Subsidy on Firms Performance - Positive effect on firms quantitative growth for a short time? No wonder. - No evidence of positive impact on firms profitability and even negative impact for SMEs ROA - Scale up? No new member of Chaebols or global high-tech companies other than old internet firms such as Line(Naver), Kakao, etc. - Need to innovate innovation system: R&D voucher/loan/equity investment rather than R&D subsidy in order to evade moral hazard. Societal Impact Expected in the Future - STI policy and government R&D investment will still be needed in the future in order to improve the quality of life and cope with many social problems in both real and virtual spaces. - Positive societal impact of government R&D investment for the purpose would be ever expected. - But the attention of and R&D investment by Korean government for meeting societal needs are not matched with such expectation. - Helpful to prioritize more impactable areas in terms of government R&D investment.

35 Thank You Seogwon Hwang