Use of Administrative Records to Reduce Burden and Improve Quality. Amy O Hara CNSTAT Workshop on Respondent Burden March 8, 2016

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1 Use of Administrative Records to Reduce Burden and Improve Quality Amy O Hara CNSTAT Workshop on Respondent Burden March 8,

2 Using administrative records in household surveys Reduce burden American Housing Survey (AHS) American Community Survey (ACS) National Survey of College Graduates (NSCG) Improve efficiency Improve quality 2

3 Research topics AHS Tax amount Unit size Lot size Year built Year acquired Stories Bathroom Bedrooms Total rooms NSCG Earnings Degree Field of study Employer Industry Occupation 3

4 Using administrative records in household surveys Reduce burden Improve efficiency best time of day best mode frame (National Survey of Children s Health, National Teacher and Principal Survey (NTPS)) tracing Improve quality 4

5 Using administrative records in household surveys Reduce burden Improve efficiency Improve quality AHS, NSCG Survey of Income and Program Participation Consumer Expenditure Survey 5

6 Authority Authority to access records 6. Information from other Federal departments and agencies; acquisition of reports from other governmental and private sources (a) The Secretary, whenever he considers it advisable, may call upon any other department, agency, or establishment of the Federal Government, or of the government of the District of Columbia, for information pertinent to the work provided for in this title. (b) The Secretary may acquire, by purchase or otherwise, from States, counties, cities, or other units of government, or their instrumentalities, or from private persons and agencies, such copies of records, reports, and other material as may be required for the efficient and economical conduct of the censuses and surveys provided for in this title. (c) To the maximum extent possible and consistent with the kind, timeliness, quality and scope of the statistics required, the Secretary shall acquire and use information available from any source referred to in subsection (a) or (b) of this section instead of conducting direct inquiries. 6

7 Data sources Examples of data sources IRS, SSA, HUD, CMS, HHS SNAP, WIC, TANF Property value, taxes, deeds Previously collected information Demographic characteristics Housing structure characteristics 7

8 Methods Modeling (SIPP) Substitution (AHS, NTPS) Hybrid approaches 8

9 Research with the ACS Variable Phone Service Year Built Part of Condominium Tenure Property Value Real Estate Taxes Have mortgage/mortgage amount Second mortgage/heloc and payment Sale of Agricultural Products Social Security Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Wages Self Employment Income Interest/dividends Pensions Residence 1 year ago and Address Number of Rooms and Bedrooms Facilities Fuel type Acreage Question Number H8g H2 H16 H17 H19 H20 H22a and H22b H23a and H23b H5 P47d P47e P47a P47b P47c P47g P15a H7a and H7b H8a, H8b, H8c, H8d, H8e, H8f H13 H4 Source: Agility in Action: A Snapshot of Enhancements to the American Community Survey,

10 Burden for ACS questions in study Variable Seconds Variable Seconds Wages 41 Real Estate Taxes 9 Interest/dividends 20 Supplemental Security Income 8 Residence 1 year ago and Address 18 Self Employment Income 8 Fuel type 14 Pensions 8 Number of Rooms and Bedrooms 13 Facilities 6 Year Built 11 Second mortgage/heloc and payment 5 Tenure 11 Acreage 5 Property Value 11 Part of Condominium 4 Have mortgage/mortgage amount 11 Phone Service 1 Social Security 10 Sale of Agricultural Products 1 10 Source: Agility in Action: A Snapshot of Enhancements to the American Community Survey, 2015

11 Difficulty/sensitivity of ACS Difficult or Sensitive Variables questions in study Additional Variables in Study Number of Rooms and Bedrooms Difficult Acreage Property Value Difficult Fuel type Real Estate Taxes Difficult Have mortgage/mortgage amount Year Built Difficult Part of Condominium Facilities Sensitive Phone Service Interest/dividends Sensitive Residence 1 year ago and Address Pensions Sensitive Sale of Agricultural Products Social Security Sensitive Second mortgage/heloc and payment Supplemental Security Income Sensitive Self Employment Income Wages Sensitive Tenure 11 Source: Agility in Action: A Snapshot of Enhancements to the American Community Survey, 2015

for Replacing or Supplementing the Year Built Question on the

12 Year built coverage by county ACS 2012-Corelogic BSA match County coverage percent Source: Preliminary Research for Replacing or Supplementing the Year Built Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,

13 Income 13 Source: Preliminary Research for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records, 2016

14 Very preliminary FY2016 work Housing variables Acreage present for 91% Total Property Value present for 85% Real Estate Tax present for 83% Number of Bedrooms present for 61% Number of Rooms present for 44% (Source: 2014 ACS housing units matched to TPD) 14

15 Challenges Data quality How to assess (what is truth ) Coverage (use matrix sampling where lacking) Concept alignment (last year s income vs. last 12 month income) Matching Access and use issues 15

16 Challenges Data quality Matching Mismatches and missed matches Person and address matching Access and use issues 16

17 ACS 2011 PIK rates Age under 18 Age 18 to 64 Age 65 and older White alone Black alone AIAN alone Asian alone NHPI alone Some Other Race alone Two or More races Hispanic Source: Preliminary Research for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records, 2016 Not Hispanic 17

ACS 2012-Corelogic MAF and BSA matching 2,500,000

500,000 0 1,401,531 MAFID match 1,774,559 BSA

or Supplementing the Year Built Question on the

18 ACS 2012-Corelogic MAF and BSA matching 2,500,000 2,000, , ,156 1,500,000 1,000, , ,401,531 MAFID match 1,774,559 BSA match Source: Preliminary Research for Replacing or Supplementing the Year Built Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,

19 Challenges Data quality Matching Access and use issues Source volatility and reliability Alignment of reference periods 19

20 Volatility 160,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000, National person file from third party vendor stable, but wireless file is growing over time. 0 National Wireless Spike in TY2007 individual income tax returns due to economic stimulus rebate 155,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 TY2005 TY2006 TY2007 TY2008 TY Source: Targus/Neustar record counts (upper) ; TY2005-TY2009 IRS individual income tax return record counts (lower)

21 Reference periods December January February Oct Nov Dec Jan $ Feb Mar Apr November March Sept May October Most tax returns are filed between February and April Rosters, addresses April Aug July June Referring to income from the previous calendar year September May August June July 21

22 Are we trading burden reduction for lower data quality How are we assessing this? What else could we do? study data quality Example - income issues Income not reported to IRS Previous twelve months, annual, or quarterly Do we need eight components or could we use AGI Blended data vs. substitution vs. as-is 22

23 Thought experiment: Could we implement records in January 2018? What needs to happen if we wanted to use year built from external source? Prepare data for operational uses Obtain OMB approval for the questionnaire changes Federal register notice before the end of 2016, given our development and print contract schedules Revise ACS edit and imputation processes Simulate impact on 1/5 year products Ensure federal agency buy-in 23

24 Thought experiment: Impact of implementing records Impact on releases and products Impact on users PUMS users HUD reports, buy-in (85% match rate for AHS single family homes to vendor data) 24

25 Questions? 25

US Census Bureau slide presentation entitled: Linking Administrative Records at the U.S. Census Bureau, 2015

Description of document: Requested date: Released date: Posted date: Source of document: US Census Bureau slide presentation entitled: Linking Administrative Records at the U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 08-September-2017