INCLUSIVE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS FROM BOLIVIA

Transcription

1 INCLUSIVE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS FROM BOLIVIA LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS London England Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance Plurinational Estate of Bolivia June,

2 CONTENT I. Bolivian Economic Model II. Sustained Economic Growth III. Social Inclusion IV. Resilience to External Shocks V. Perspectives Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 2

3 CONTENT I. Bolivian Economic Model II. Sustained Economic Growth III. Social Inclusion IV. Resilience to External Shocks V. Perspectives Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 3

4 Bolivian Economic Model ECONOMIC SOCIAL COMMUNITARIAN PRODUCTIVE MODEL Conditions for applying the model - Developing country - Availability of natural resources - Active participation of the State in the economy Determinants of economic growth - Domestic demand - Take advantage of natural resources (appropriation of economic surplus by the State) - Income redistribution (reduction of social inequality and poverty) - Industrialization of natural resources - Public Investment Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 4

5 Bolivian Economic Model ECONOMIC SOCIAL COMMUNITARIAN PRODUCTIVE MODEL Surplus USE AND UTILIZATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES Hydrocarbons Mining Electricity STRATEGIC SECTORS REDISTRIBUTIVE STATE REDISTRIBUTION OF INCOME: AND POVERTY Social Programs REDUCTION Industry, manufacturing and craftsmanship Tourism Farming Housing Trade, transport and other services INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT GENERATING SECTOR - Conditional cash transfer programs Bono Juancito Pinto Renta Dignidad Bono Juana Azurduy - cross-subsidization - Social policies INDUSTRIALIZATION Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 5

6 Bolivian Economic Model Formalization of the Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model Luis Alberto Arce Catacora & David Quiroz Sillo This paper presents a mathematical model aiming to structure the main characteristics of the Bolivia s new Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model which has been implemented since In the model, the economy is structured by two sectors, i) the strategic sector, which main activity is the exploitation of non-renewable resources and, ii) the income and labor generating sector. The underlying idea is that by transferring resources from the strategic sector (its surplus) towards the income and labor generating sector, it is possible to achieve a sustained economic growth pattern. The paper is based on a super-predator model and arrives to a solution for the system by applying Lotka-Volterra s equations. In the solution the dynamic for the following variables are found: v = a 1 b 1 w v w = a 3 + b 3 v c 3 u w is the dynamics of the surplus from income and employment generating sector is the dynamics of the share of income and employment generating sector in the product u = a 2 b 2 v u is the dynamics of the surplus from strategic sector Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 6

7 Bolivian Economic Model Formalization of the Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model Through simulations of the model it is obtained that surplus from income and employment generating sector follows a growing trend over time, whereas surplus from strategic sector decreases over time due to limitations on natural resources. Moreover, the share of income and employment generating sector in the product grows over time. 7 Luis Alberto Arce Catacora & David Quiroz Sillo 6 w t 5 u t 4 3 v t tiempo (t) Therefore, it can be concluded that in the framework of the Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model, income and employment generating sector is the one that generates sustained economic growth. Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 7

8 CONTENT I. Bolivian Economic Model II. Sustained Economic Growth III. Social Inclusion IV. Resilience to External Shocks V. Perspectives Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 8

9 Sustained Economic Growth Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Selected Countries: Index of GDP growth trend Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Ecuador Paraguay Peru Uruguay Source: National Institutes of Statistics and Central Banks in each country Elaboration: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 9

10 Sustained Economic Growth South America: Real GDP growth (In percentage) * Data of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Source: National Institutes of Statistics and Central Banks in each country, IMF and ECLAC Elaboration: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 10

11 Sustained Economic Growth (p) 2015(p) (p) 2015(p) Bolivia: Nominal and per capita GDP, Nominal Gross Domestic Product (Millions of USD) 33,000 33,238 Gross Domestic Product per capita (USD) 3,000 3,071 27,500 2,500 22,000 2,000 16,500 1,500 11,000 9,574 1,000 1,037 5, (p) Preliminary Source: National Institute of Statistics Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 11

12 Sustained Economic Growth Bolivia: Incidence of domestic demand and net exports on GDP (Percentage points) Average Domestic Dmd. 3.2% Net Exports 0.1% Average Domestic Dmd. 5.6% Net Exports -0.5% (p) Preliminary Source: National Institute of Statistics Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 12

13 Sustained Economic Growth Domestic Demand as Economic Growth Engine Osmar Bolivar Rosales & Darwin Ugarte Ontiveros An Structural Autoregressive Vector model (SVAR) is estimated aiming to interrelate GDP (y), private domestic demand (dpri), public domestic demand (dpub), public incomes (ipn), and external demand (dex); conditions of identification reflect Bolivian economy characteristics. Results suggest that: i) domestic demand, which is conformed by consumption and investment, is the principal determinant of Bolivian economy growth; ii) evidence shows that if we disaggregate domestic demand in private and public, the former has a greater effect; iii) the effect of public domestic demand is greater than external demand one, in terms of elasticity; iv) results confirm that there is a crowding-in among public and private domestic demand. x ( L) x u x y, dpri, dpub, ipn, dex t t 1 t VAR Specification t t t t t SIRF 1: impulse: dpri; response: y SIRF 2: impulse: dpub; response: y SIRF 3: impulse: dex; response: y SIRF 4: impulse: dpub; response: dpri Interpretation of the effect of one variable (impulse) on other (response) is in terms of elasticity. For example, in SIRF 1, GDP instantaneously varies 0.8% when private domestic demand raises 1% due to a structural shock; one-year cumulative effect is 2.6%. Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 13

14 Sustained Economic Growth Distribution, Aggregate Demand and Economic Growth in Bolivia Luis Alberto Arce Catacora, David Quiroz and José Villegas Based on a Kaleckian framework, functions of consumption, investment, net exports and labor productivity are estimated in order to determine the type of demand, productivity and global regime that Bolivian economy follows. This analysis allows to understand how aggregate demand and resource distribution affect economic growth. Concretely, for all the abovementioned functions the variable profit is included and its partial effect on dependent variable is obtained. After that, all these partial effects are added, thus the profit s total effect on aggregate output can be identified. The relationships are estimated by linear Bayesian regressions. Results suggest that Bolivian economy is characterized by a contractive global regime, this entails that a better distribution of resources may strengthen aggregate demand which will benefit economic growth, capital accumulation and productivity. Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 14

15 Sustained Economic Growth South America: Public investment as percentage of GDP (e) Since 2006, Bolivia uses public investment as a key factor to foster economic growth. Ten years later, Bolivia has become an example of public-investment-led growth (as quoted by Rodrick, 2016) (1) The series corresponds to information of the Central Bank of Ecuador (2) The series comes to Bolivia s Vice Ministry of Public Investment and External Financing (e) Estimated by IMF Source: Article IV reports for each country of the International Monetary Fund, Central Bank of Ecuador, Ministry of Finance of Argentina Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Ecuador(1) Bolivia(2) Uruguay Chile Colombia Peru Argentina Brazil Paraguay (e) 2015(e) Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics

16 Sustained Economic Growth Projects completed until 2016 Main industrialization projects 2 Separating units of natural gas liquids (Rio Grande and Gran Chaco) Plant of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Plant of fertilizers production (urea and ammonia) 1 Pilot Plant of Lithium Carbonate and 1 Pilot Plant of Potassium Chloride Tin smelting furnace type Ausmelt 9 thermoelectric plants Public companies: dairy (LACTEOSBOL), almonds (EBA), sugar (EASBA), production of fertilizers (EPAF), seeds (EEPS), assembly of computer equipment (QUIPUS), cable transport (My Cableway) Projects (Plan of Social and Economic Development) Petrochemical complexes: i) plant of propylene and polypropylene ii) plant of ethylene and polyethylene iii) projects of resins and plastics iv) plant of ammonium nitrate and v) complex of methanol 3 Industrial plants of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and lithium carbonate Plant of steel (Mutún) 2 Industrial plants of zinc smelting and refining Plant wire rod 5 hydroelectric plants and 6 combined cycle thermoelectric plants 5 wind energy plants and 5 solar energy plants Geothermal plant Productive complexes wood, software, grains, fruit, vegetables, meat, tourism Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 16

17 Sustained Economic Growth Bolivian economic growth approach: An overview on economic literature Prebisch (1950) In order to build up development conditions within a country, the State must actively participate in the economy, domestic demand must be fostered and income redistribution must be applied (it improves social conditions and strengthen domestic demand) Kalecki ( ) Income redistribution is a key determinant of economic growth through domestic demand Blecker & Palley (at present) They are part of a heterodox school of thought that sets domestic demand as a better strategy to reach economic growth than external demand Coller & Van der Ploeg (at present) Public investment, financed with income obtained from the utilization of natural resources, is an excellent mechanism to generate economic growth Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 17

18 CONTENT I. Bolivian Economic Model II. Sustained Economic Growth III. Social Inclusion IV. Resilience to External Shocks V. Perspectives Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 18

19 (p) Social Inclusion Bolivia: Extreme poverty (In percentage) (p) Premilinary (a) Difference between 2005 and 2012 (b) Difference between 2005 and 2013 Source: National Statistics Institute ; Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Latin America: Reduction of extreme poverty between 2005 and 2014 (In percentage) Bolivia Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 19 Peru Ecuador Argentina(a) Paraguay Venezuela(b) Brazil Colombia Uruguay Chile(b)

20 Social Inclusion Bolivia: Income ratio between the richest 10% and the poorest 10%, 2005 y 2014 (In number of times) In 2005, the richest 10% had 128 times more income than the poorest 10% By 2014, this difference was reduced to 39 times Latin America: income ratio between the richest 10% and poorest 10%, 2005 and 2014 (In number of times) (a) Date of 2006 (b) Date of 2007 (c) Date of 2013 (p) Preliminary Source: Unit of Analysis and Economic Policy and United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 20

21 Social Inclusion (p) 0.65 Bolivia: Gini index (Values between 0 and 1) Uruguay(c) Costa Rica Venezuela El Salvador(a) Peru(c) Chile(b) Paraguay Mexico Panama Ecuador Colombia Rep. Dominicana Bolivia (p) Premilinary (a) Datum for 2004 Brazil (b) Datum for 2006 (c) Datum for 2007 (d) Datum for 2013 Source: National Statistics Institute ; Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Latin America: Gini Index 2005 y 2012 (Values between 0 and 1) Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics Uruguay Venezuela El Salvador Peru Bolivia Ecuador(d) Mexico Paraguay Costa Rica Chile(d) Rep. Dominicana Panama(d) Colombia Brazil

22 Social Inclusion Bolivia: Beneficiaries of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs, until December 2015 (Expressed in terms of number of beneficiaries and as a percentage) 55.0% Remaining population 13.7% 20.6% Bono Juancito Pinto (2015p*) 2,228,907 beneficiaries 10.7% Bono Juana Azurduy (May Dic 2015p) 1,487,687 beneficiaries Renta Dignidad (1) (Feb Dic 2015p) 1,162,323 beneficiaries 4,878,917 beneficiaries 45.0% of Bolivia s population (p) Preliminary (1) Persons charged to date at least once the Renta Dignidad Source: Ministry of Education, Pension and Insurances Fiscalization Authority and Ministry of Health and Sports Elaboration: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Fiscal Studies and Analysis Unit Note: The Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Bolivia are divided, at least, in three: Juancito Pinto (This is an action adopted by Morales Administration and it is part of the economic policy focused on social work. This benefit establishes a yearly cash grant of Bs200 for all students of public schools as an incentive to school attendance); Juana Azurduy (This was established as homage to Juana Azurduy de Padilla who is considered a Bolivian heroine. It is an economic incentive created by Morales Administration in order to reduce the maternal and child mortality rates); and Dignity Rent (Dignity Rent was created by the Government in order to provide a decent and secure old age. This benefit consists to a payment of Bs250 per month in favor of people who are 60 years old and older ones. This amount of money is another benefit of Direct Tax on Hydrocarbons). Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 22

23 Social Inclusion The Effect of Income Redistribution on Poverty Reduction in Bolivia Darwin Ugarte Ontiveros & Osmar Bolivar Rosales This paper offers an impact evaluation analysis of the conditional cash transfer social policies in Bolivia, such as the Juancito Pinto program, Juana Azurduy program and the Dignity Rent program, on poverty reduction. For these purposes, the research uses information coming from the Encuesta de Hogares 2013 database and applies impact evaluation methodologies such as the Propensity Score Matching and Instrumental Variables. The underlying assumptions behind these techniques were successfully tested. Results suggest that implementation of these redistribution programs helped to reduce poverty by 8.2pp and extreme poverty by 9.6pp in the group that received these cash transfers. Juana Azurduy Juancito Pinto Renta Dignidad Some of the three programs Dependent variable: Moderate poverty ATT * * ** *** t=-1.66 t=-1.73 t=-2.01 t=-4.22 IV effect * * * ** t=-1.75 t=-1.68 t=-1.72 t=-1.97 Dependent variable: Extreme poverty ATT * * ** ** t=-1.65 t=-1.93 t=-2.52 t=-2.02 IV effect * * ** ** t=-1.89 t=-1.67 t=-2.02 t=-1.96 Statistical Siginificance: *** al 1%, ** al 5%, * al 10% Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 23

24 Social Inclusion (p) Bolivia: Urban open unemployment rate (p) (In percentage) Bolivia: National Minimum Wage (In $us) (p) Preliminary Source: National Statistics Institute; Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 24

25 CONTENT I. Bolivian Economic Model II. Sustained Economic Growth III. Social Inclusion IV. Resilience to External Shocks V. Perspectives Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 25

26 Resilience to External Shocks Bolivia: Central Bank s Net International Reserves, * (Millions of USD) LATIN AMERICA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 2015 (Percentage of GDP) (*) Data for 2016 is up to April Source: Central Bank of Bolivia and Central Banks of each country Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 26

27 Resilience to External Shocks (p) Bolivia: Long-term Public External Debt, (As percentage of GDP) Average % Average % MASTRICHT THRESHOLD 60% THRESHOLD CAN 50% (p) Preliminary Source: Central Bank of Bolivia Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 27

28 Resilience to External Shocks Latin America: External public debt, 2005 and 2015 (As percentage of GDP) (p) Uruguay 58 Venezuela 55 Bolivia 52 Uruguay 33 Peru 31 Colombia 23 Paraguay 30 Ecuador 20 Argentina 29 Bolivia 19 Ecuador 26 Mexico 14 Venezuela 21 Paraguay 14 Colombia 17 Chile 13 Brazil 11 Argentina 12 Mexico 8 Peru 11 Chile 8 Brazil (p) Preliminary Note: (1) Venezuela to september 2015; (2) Argentina to june 2015 Source: Central Bank and Ministry of Economy and Public Finance of countries, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Development Indicators World Bank. Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 28

29 Resilience to External Shocks Bolivia among the most resilient countries to withstand the oil price decreases Next table shows the best economies in terms of five indicators of external vulnerability among 43 oil exporter countries (those with the ratio oil exports over GDP larger than the third quartile, 8,2%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Reserves/GDP Reserves/External Reserves in months of External debt External debt debt Imports stock/gdp stock/exports 1 Libya Algeria Saudi Arabia Algeria Turkmenistan Saudi Arabia Bolivia Algeria 32.8* 2 Turkmenistan Algeria Algeria Niger Libya Iran Iran Singapore Azerbaijan Bolivia Niger Niger Bhutan Congo Bhutan Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Bolivia Angola Russia Uzbekistan Malaysia Trinidad and Tobag Bhutan Kuwait Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Congo Cameroon Azerbaijan Paraguay Vietnam Malaysia Gabon Angola 6.6* 9 Cameroon Paraguay Seychelles Malaysia Qatar Colombia Bolivia Bolivia 17.1 Two aspects are worth mentioning: (i) Bolivia is among the countries with best indicators in terms of external resilience, it means that it has capacity to withstand oil price reductions, (ii) inside this group of countries, unlike remaining countries, Bolivia has both characteristics, a considerable saving levels and low debt level. Note: Data for 2014 due to availability Source: World Development Indicators World Bank. Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 29

30 Resilience to External Shocks South America: Fiscal Balance (As percentage of GDP) Average Average Note: 1995 data not available for Brazil. Source: International Monetary Fund ( WEO - October 2015 ), IFS (1995 and 1999 ), Ministry of Economy and Production of Argentina, IBGE and Central Bank of Brazil, Central Bank of Ecuador, Central Bank of Peru, Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank. For Bolivia Ministry of Economy and Public Finance data Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 30

31 Resilience to External Shocks Bolivia: Subnational Banking account Balances, (As percentage of GDP) Source: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Vice-Ministry of Budget an Fiscal Accounting Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 31

32 Resilience to External Shocks Real per capita GDP growth and Oil Price: A comparison between Bolivia and countries with similar hydrocarbon exports as a percentage of GDP, (In percentage) Percentage of hydrocarbon exports on GDP are in brackets [ ] País Belarus Bolivia Malaysia Russia Ecuador Venezuela Iran Norway Yemen Promedio Desv. Estándar Source: World Development Indicators World Bank. Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 32

33 Resilience to External Shocks Real per capita GDP growth and Oil Price: A comparison between Bolivia and countries with similar hydrocarbon exports as a percentage of total exports, (In percentage) Bolivia s real per capita GDP growth has followed a sustained pattern despite fluctuations on oil prices. For example, in 2009 most of the sample countries registered decreases in their real per capita GDP. Percentage of hydrocarbon exports on total exports are in brackets [ ] País Uzbekistan Sudan Colombia Bolivia Russia Ecuador Cameroon Norway Arab Emirates Promedio Desv. Estándar Source: World Development Indicators World Bank. Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 33

34 Resilience to External Shocks The relationship between oil price and economic growth in Bolivia: the role of fiscal policy Darwin Ugarte & Osmar Bolivar Bolivia is one of the few countries that kept sustained growth levels during last years, independent of oil price fluctuations and the adverse global context. This paper highlights fiscal spending as a tool that reduces the negative effect of oil price decreases on economic growth in Bolivia. For that it is estimated the elasticity of the production level (PIB) with respect to fiscal spending (G), oil price (WTI), and both variables interacted. The results show that the interactions coefficient is negative, which suggests that the net effect of oil price reductions on growth diminishes as fiscal spending increases: ln PIB ln Gasto 0.11lnWTI 0.014ln WTI *ln Gasto ' X t t t t t t t The marginal effect of oil price comes from 2 3 *ln Gt *ln Gt which imply that if real fiscal spending would reach Bs (of 1990) millions, the product elasticity with respect to oil price can reduce to zero. These results are supported by using the specification proposed by Hamilton (2003) for the analysis of oil shocks and by estimating a Structural VAR model Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 34

35 CONTENT I. Bolivian Economic Model II. Sustained Economic Growth III. Social Inclusion IV. Resilience to External Shocks V. Perspectives Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 35

36 Perspectives GDP growth projections 2016 (In percentage) October 2015 April 2016 Paraguay 3.8 Bolivia 3.8 Bolivia 3.5 Peru 3.7 Peru 3.3 Paraguay 2.9 Colombia 2.8 Colombia 2.5 Chile 2.5 Chile 1.5 Uruguay 2.2 Uruguay 1.4 Ecuador 0.1 Argentina -1.0 Argentina -0.7 Brazil -3.8 Brazil -1.0 Ecuador -4.5 Venezuela -6.0 Venezuela -8.0 October 2015 January 2016 Bolivia 4.1 Paraguay 3.6 Paraguay 4.0 Bolivia 3.5 Peru 3.6 Peru 3.3 Colombia 2.9 Colombia 3.0 Chile 2.6 Chile 2.4 Uruguay 2.3 Uruguay 1.9 Argentina 0.9 Argentina 0.7 Brazil -0.6 Ecuador -2.0 Ecuador -1.9 Brazil -2.5 Venezuela -3.8 Venezuela -4.8 December 2015 April 2016 Bolivia 4.5 Bolivia 4.5 Peru 3.4 Peru 3.8 Colombia 3.0 Colombia 2.9 Paraguay 3.0 Paraguay 2.8 Chile 2.1 Chile 1.6 Uruguay 1.5 Uruguay 0.5 Argentina 0.8 Argentina -0.8 Ecuador 0.3 Ecuador -0.1 Brazil -2.0 Brazil -3.5 Venezuela -7.0 Venezuela -6.9 Note: The arrows represent the variation rise or fall compared to the previous publication. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Elaboration: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Unit of Analysis and Fiscal Studies Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 36

37 Thanks Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance London School of Economics 37