Child maintenance and poverty reduction in lone parent families: analysis of typical cases in UK, US, NZ and Australia
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1 Child maintenance and poverty reduction in lone parent families: analysis of typical cases in UK, US, NZ and Australia Christine Skinner, Daniel R. Meyer, Kay Cook and Michael Fletcher Presented at ESRC International Research Seminar Series on Child Maintenance, 2 nd July 2015, London
2 Background 1 Compare regimes in UK, US (Wisconsin), NZ & Australia Similar policy drivers and histories Increasing lone parent families Rising fiscal costs supporting lone parents Initial principle of cost recovery (social assistance recipients should not get all paid on their behalf) Explicit policy transfer: UK modelled on US Wisconsin; NZ modelled on Australia
3 The Big Questions In 4 countries that began child maintenance regimes in part to recoup government expenditures, how do child maintenance payments today interact with social security benefit payments? In addition to explicit cost recovery mechanisms, are there implicit mechanisms hidden in the interactions of benefits? What do the explicit and implicit cost recovery rules mean for poverty among lone parents? Can we conceptualize as a substitute for social security benefits or as a complement?
4 Vignette technique provides detail on several typical cases (scenarios); standardises context, makes for easier comparisons 3 basic questions: How much is expected? Method and Approach 1 What is a lone parent s income package with and without? What % of the actually increases income/ decreases a lone parent s poverty gap?
5 Method and Approach 2 Definitions: Net income = set level of earnings according to scenario + according to scenario + any benefits for which she is eligible (whether paid directly or through tax system; divided between those for lowerincome families and broader-based benefits) income and payroll taxes Disposable income (income AHC) = net income (gross housing costs subsidies) Poverty threshold = 60% of equivalized median net income
6 Mary & Paul: 1 child aged 3 months Never lived together Neither has other children Vignette Basics Live in rented accommodation (~ bottom quartile) Explore 10 scenarios varying levels of Mary and Paul s earnings; with and without
7 10 Scenarios within Vignette Mary Paul A Unemployed Unemployed No B Unemployed Unemployed Yes C Unemployed 2/3 median earnings Yes D Unemployed Median earnings Yes E Median PT earnings 2/3 median earnings No F Median PT earnings 2/3 median earnings Yes G Median PT earnings Median earnings Yes H 2/3 Median FT earnings 2/3 median earnings No I 2/3 Median FT earnings 2/3 median earnings Yes J 2/3 Median FT earnings Median earnings Yes
8 Child Maintenance Amounts Figure 1: Child Maintenance Obligations, Various Scenarios PPP-Adjusted US$, Annual B:Mary on benefitc:mary on benefit F:Mary part-time earnings Paul unemployed Paul low-moderate earnings I:Mary lowmoderate earnings D:Mary on benefit G:Mary part-time earnings Paul median earnings Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States J:Mary lowmoderate earnings
9 Figure 2a: Gross Income for Mary, Australia PPP-adjusted US$, Annual A:No B:Low C:Moderate D:High E:No F:Low G:Moderate H:No I:Moderate J:High Benefits Low-Income Other Benefits Earnings Child Maintenance Net Housing Cost Taxes Disposable Income
10 Figure 2b: Gross Income for Mary, New Zealand PPP-adjusted US$, Annual A:No B:Low C:Moderate D:High E:No F:Low G:Moderate H:No I:Moderate J:High Benefits Low-Income Other Benefits Earnings Child Maintenance Net Housing Cost Taxes Disposable Income
11 Figure 2c: Gross Income for Mary, UK PPP-adjusted US$, Annual A:No B:Low C:Moderate D:High E:No F:Low G:Moderate H:No I:Moderate J:High Benefits Low-Income Other Benefits Earnings Child Maintenance Net Housing Cost Taxes Disposable Income
12 Figure 2d: Gross Income for Mary, US PPP-adjusted US$, Annual A:No B:Low C:Moderate D:High E:No F:Low G:Moderate H:No I:Moderate J:High Benefits Low-Income Other Benefits Earnings Child Maintenance Net Housing Cost Taxes Disposable Income
13 Does reduce poverty? Is Mary in poverty based on income AHC without? Taking into account all direct and indirect effects, does takes her out of poverty? Taking into account all direct and indirect effects, what % of decreases poverty?
14 Poverty without Before, Is Mary Above Poverty? AU NZ UK US Mary has no earnings (Scenarios A-D) No No No No Mary has part-time earnings (Scenarios E-G) Mary has low-wage full-time earnings (Scenarios H-J) No No No No No No No No
15 With Low/Medium/High, Is Mary Out of Poverty? AU NZ UK US Mary has no earnings (Scenarios A-D) Mary has part-time earnings (Scenarios E-G) No/No/No No/No/No No/No/No No/No/No NA/No/No NA/No/No NA/No/Yes NA/No/No Mary has low-wage full-time earnings (Scenarios H-J) NA/No/Yes NA/No/No NA/Yes/Yes NA/No/No
16 % income increases and poverty gap decreases from Low/Medium/High Rate at which income AHC increases and poverty gap declines for every dollar of (%) Mary has no earnings (Scenarios A-D) AU NZ UK US 100/87/64 0/0/0 100/100/100 30/30/30 Mary has part-time earnings (Scenarios E-G) NA/73/58 NA/100/100 NA/100/100* NA/43/51 Mary has low-wage fulltime earnings (Scenarios H-J) NA/73/58* NA/75/75 NA/100*/100* NA/100/100
17 Summary 4 countries with similar explicit cost recovery histories now have very different approaches AU: no explicit, some hidden in interactions NZ: explicit, few hidden in interactions UK: no explicit, no hidden in interactions US: some explicit, some hidden in interactions Paper documents both importance of and limitations to as anti-poverty policy
18 Limitations further questions Limitations: Only one family type limited scenarios Assumes fully paid, benefits fully received Ignores behavioural effects Does not yet incorporate fees No information on how these approaches are working Need to explore: Advantages/ disadvantages of approaches? Is the approach rationalised in policy making?
19 THANK YOU!
20 Median Female Full-Time Earnings 53,300 (35,017) AU NZ UK US 47,008 (32,012) 23,600 (33,785) 37,804 (37,804) Median Part-Time Female Earnings 23,972 (15,749) 17,950 (12,224) 8736 (12,506) 14,148 (14,148) Median Male Full-Time Earnings 65,000 (42,704) 54,860 (37,360) 29,300 (41,944) 47,316 (47,316) Annual Housing 13,936 (9156) 14,560 (9915) 8316 (11,905) 9936 (9936) Poverty Threshold, family of two 39,169 (25,733) 30,640 (20,866) 13,780 (19,727) 26,247 (26,247) First row is in own currency; parentheses show PPP-adjusted US dollars for 2013.
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