Family Resources Survey and related series update. Surveys Branch Department for Work and Pensions

Transcription

1 Family Resources Survey and related series update Surveys Branch Department for Work and Pensions

2 Family Resources Survey Donncha Burke Households Below Average Income John Shale Pensioners Incomes Series Riaz Ali Income-Related Benefits: Estimates of Take-Up Scott Johnston 2

3 Family Resources Survey: update and developments Don Burke Family Resources Survey Team Department for Work and Pensions 3

4 Contents Background Findings from FRS 2013/14 publication Developments for FRS 2013/14 4

5 Family Resources Survey background The Family Resources Survey (FRS) is a continuous household survey which collects information on the income and circumstances of individuals living in private households. The contract of GB is currently held by a consortium of ONS and NatCen. The FRS collects data from a representative sample of 20,000 UK households across the financial year (April-March). The FRS has been running as a Great Britain survey since October 1992 and was extended to cover Northern Ireland in The FRS is the primary source for income data in the UK. 5

6 Family Resources Survey background The FRS contains information which will be of interest to researchers and analysts from a wide range of disciplines in both the public and private sectors; income data from all sources including benefits, tax credits, investments and pensions; housing tenure; caring needs and responsibilities; disability; expenditure on housing; education; childcare; family circumstances; child maintenance; well-being; poverty and material deprivation. 6

7 Who uses the FRS? Greater London Authority ( GLA ) Outside Government Pensions Policy Institute UK Data Service ( UKDS ) New Policy Institute Institute for Fiscal Studies ( IFS ) University of East Anglia ( UEA ) University of York London School of Economics ( LSE ) Northern Ireland ( DSDNI ) Scottish Government Welsh Government Institute for Social and Economic Research ( ISER ) DCLG DfE Home Office ONS MOJ HMRC HMT Government (OGD) Households Below Average Income Pensioners Incomes Take-Up Statistics Policy Simulation Housing Policy Division Disability Directorate DWP Family Resources Survey 7

8 Family Resources Survey and related publications The FRS annual report for 2013/14 was published on 25 th June The FRS is also the primary data sources for a number of other publications including; Households Below Average Income (HBAI) Pensioner Income (PI) Series Income Related Benefits: Estimates of Take-Up European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU- SILC) 8

9 FRS 2013/14 example findings Sources of total weekly household income 80 Percentage of total weekly household income Wages, salaries and self-employment Benefits and tax credits Private pensions Other sources 2003/ / / / / / / / / / /14 Year 9

10 FRS 2013/14 example findings Housing tenure time series Buying w ith a mortgage Percentage of households Owned outright Social rented sector Privately rented / / / / / / / / / / /14 Year 10

11 FRS 2013/14 example findings Median weekly rents and mortgage payments, by region / country North East North West Yorks and the Humber East Midlands West Midlands Social Rent Private Rent Mortgage Payment East of England London Region/Country Inner London Outer London South East South West England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Great Britain UK Median Weekly Rent/Mortgage Payment ( ) 11

12 FRS 2013/14 example findings Disability prevalence Percentage of the age group with a disability All adults All individuals Working age adults Children State Pension age adults 2003/ / / / / / / / / / /14 Year 12

13 FRS 2013/14 example findings Volumes of disabled people by age and gender Age 80+ Male Female Population (millions) Disabled Not disabled 13

14 FRS 2013/14 example findings Informal carers by age 14 Percentage of the population State Pension age 1 All Adults Working age All Individuals 2 Children / / / / / / / / / / /14 Year 14

15 FRS 2013/14 example findings Pension participation by gender 35 Percentage of adults Male All Female / / / / /14 Year 15

16 Developments for FRS 2013/14 Comprehensive review of the FRS report Consulted: National Statistics Good Practice team DWP FRS Users External Users Key responses implemented this year: Tables within chapters released as separate reference tables Tables from old Savings and Investments chapter made available Great Britain category added to all regional tables and outputs 16

17 Developments for FRS 2013/14 EU-SILC To meet United Kingdom requirements for EU Statistics on Income and Living conditions (EU-SILC): More information on living conditions Added a block of questions on personal well-being Removed block of questions on housing conditions, added for EU- SILC in 2012/13 Benefit Block Questions covering benefits and tax credits were restructured following a review, with the objective of improving reporting and accuracy. 17

18 Developments for 2014/15 Implementation of further suggestions from the 2013/14 report review Infographics Review of FRS data processing Please send any comments or suggestions to 18

19 Households Below Average Income: update and developments John Shale Households Below Average Income Team Department for Work and Pensions 19

20 HBAI Publication Changes for 2013/14 Extremely minimal in order to introduce stability to the series following significant revisions for the 2012/13 publication, including: Significant re-grossing exercise based on 2011 Census Streamlined report structure single readable report with tables moved online New disability chapter bringing this content together in one place Enhanced reporting of uncertainty - confidence intervals are available for many more estimates Additional Publication Tables 3-year averages on regional income 20

21 Adjusting for Inflation Continued to use variants of RPI to adjust for inflation in 2013/14 HBAI: as a within year deflator; to look at how incomes are changing over time in real terms, i.e. in comparison to inflation; and to up-rate the absolute low income threshold, based on 60 per cent of the 2010/11 median income up-rated to account for inflation. Current alternative indices do not have suitable AHC components Income figures deflated by RPIJ, CPI and CPIH are presented in an Annex Timeline to date January 2013 National Statistician announced that RPI does not meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics May 2013 Paul Johnson invited to lead review of UK price indices January 2015 Johnson Review report published with recommendations for UKSA June-September 2015 UKSA consultation on consumer price statistics Early 2016 UKSA Board final response. May/June 2016 HBAI 2014/15 21

22 Headline Figures 22

23 Average income, 1998/99 to 2013/14, United Kingdom Average Income ( per week) 1998/99 (GB) 1999/00 (GB) 2000/01 (GB) 2001/02 (GB) 2002/03 (UK) 2003/04 (UK) 2004/05 (UK) 2005/06 (UK) 2006/07 (UK) 2007/08 (UK) 2008/09 (UK) 2009/10 (UK) 2010/11 (UK) 2011/12 (UK) 2012/13 (UK) 2013/14 (UK) Median income BHC Median income AHC Mean income BHC Mean income AHC

24 Income distribution for the whole population, Before Housing Costs, 2013/14, United Kingdom Median income 453 pw per cent of median 272 pw Mean income 561 pw 1.4 Number of individuals (millions) million individuals with income above 1,000 per week Equivalised net household income (in 10 per week bands) 24

25 All individuals, main measures, 1998/99 to 2013/14, United Kingdom Relative low income (BHC, 60% median) Absolute low income (BHC, 60% 2010/11 median) Percentage of individuals (per cent) 1998/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14

26 2013/14 (UK) Alternative Inflation Figures Percentage of Individuals in absolute low income under different inflation indices Percentage of individuals (per cent) 1998/99 (GB) 1999/00 (GB) 2000/01 (GB) 2001/02 (GB) 2002/03 (UK) 2003/04 (UK) 2004/05 (UK) 2005/06 (UK) 2006/07 (UK) 2007/08 (UK) 2008/09 (UK) 2009/10 (UK) 2010/11 (UK) 2011/12 (UK) 2012/13 (UK) RPI RPIJ CPI CPIH

27 HBAI developments for 2014/15 27 th HBAI publication Follow any developments on inflation indices Johnson review; Further refine methodology for bootstrapping; Continue to improve our communication and presentation; 27

28 Pensioners Incomes Series Riaz Ali Longitudinal Surveys and Pensioners Incomes Series Team Department for Work and Pensions 28

29 Introduction The Pensioners Incomes Series (PI) contains estimates of the levels, sources and distribution of pensioners incomes. Overview: Pensioners income compared to the working age population Components and composition of pensioners incomes Pensioners in receipt of different sources of income Pensioners in the income distribution 29

30 Pensioners compared to the working age population The gap between pensioner and working age benefit units median net income AHC has reduced from 38 per cent lower in 1994/95 ( 173 compared to 281) to 8 per cent lower in 2013/14 ( 283 compared to 306) Pensioner unit median net income increased by 47 per cent BHC and 64 per cent AHC between 1994/95 to 2013/14, compared to 10 per cent BHC and 9 per cent AHC for working-benefit units 30

31 Trends in components of income 31

32 Composition of gross income Benefit income has gradually decreased in terms of the share of overall gross income, from 61 per cent in 1979 to 43 per cent in 2013/14 The contribution of earnings to total gross income grew from 14 per cent in 1998/99 to a peak of 20 per cent in 2009/ % Based on data from the FES Based on data from the FRS Percentage of weekly gross income 80% 60% 40% 20% Other income Earnings Investment income Personal pensions Occupational pensions Benefit income 0% / / / / / / / / / / / /14 32

33 Sources of Income A key aim of the government is to incentivise savings for retirement 33

34 Private pensions Based on data from the FRS ( per week, 2013/14 prices) Percentage in receipt Mean Median 34 Percentage of pensioner units in receipt (%) Av erage amount f or those in receipt of Priv ate Pension ( per week)

35 Income-related benefits Based on data from the FES Based on data from the FRS ( per week, 2013/14 prices) Mean Median 35 Average weekly amount for those in receipt of Income Related Benefits ( ) Percentage in receipt Percentage of pensioner units in receipt (%)

36 Importance of benefit income Based on data from the FES Based on data from the FRS Percentage of pensioner units (%) Pensioner units with private income Pensioner units with over 25% of gross income from private sources Pensioner units with over 50% of gross income from private sources Pensioner units with over 75% of gross income from private sources / / / / / / / / / / / /14 36

37 Distribution of sources of gross income Mean gross income ( ) Other income Earnings Investment income Personal pensions Occupational pensions Benefit income Based on data from the FRS ( per week, 2013/14 prices) Bottom fifth Next fifth Middle fifth Next fifth Top fifth Bottom fifth Next fifth Middle fifth Next fifth Top fifth COUPLES SINGLES Position in income distribution 37

38 Pensioner families in the overall household income distribution In 1979, 43 per cent of all pensioners were in the bottom fifth, but by 1998/99 this proportion had more than halved to 17 per cent in 1998/99, and decreased further to 13 per cent in 2013/14. Percentage of all individuals in pensioner families 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Based on data from the FES and FRS / /14 0% Bottom fifth Next fifth Middle fifth Next fifth Top fifth Position in the overall net income (after housing costs) distribution 38

39 Income-related Benefits: Estimates of Take-up Scott Johnston Take-Up Team Department for Work and Pensions 39

40 Overview Take-up the receipt of benefits a claimant is entitled to Previous series: Last published in 2012 Consultation ended in October 2012 This publication: Can be published more timely than the previous series More transparent estimates of uncertainty More extensive use of DWP data sources: Increased use of data-matching the Family Resources Survey to administrative data for all benefits, and more extensive data-matching for Pension Credit to account for benefit confusion Presents figures for 2009/10, 2012/13 and 2013/14. 40

41 Estimating Take-up Take-up is estimated in two ways: Caseload take-up - compares the number of benefit recipients, averaged over the year, with the estimated number who would be receiving if everyone took up their entitlement for the full period of their entitlement. Expenditure take-up - compares the total amount of benefit received, in the course of a year, with the estimated total amount that would be received if everyone took up their entitlement for the full period of their entitlement. 41

42 Key Methodology Changes The new methodology is strongly focussed on using evidence to produce the take-up estimates. The previous use of arbitrary assumptions and nonevidence based (theoretical) adjustments has been avoided. The main changes that have been applied since the last publication include: Matching DWP administrative data with the FRS to improve data on receipt (where consent to link has been given) across all benefits in the report; Presenting uncertainty in the estimates using confidence intervals. By removing the error framework, we are improving transparency but still producing statistics that are fit for purpose in a complex area. 42

43 Headline Figures for 2013/14 Pension Credit: Caseload take-up: estimated between per cent Expenditure take-up: estimated between per cent Income Support, and income-related Employment and Support Allowance: Caseload take-up: estimated between per cent Expenditure take-up: estimated between per cent Jobseeker s Allowance (Income-Based): Caseload take-up: estimated between per cent Expenditure take-up: estimated between per cent Housing Benefit: Caseload take-up: estimated between per cent Expenditure take-up: estimated between per cent 43

44 Comments Comments, views and questions?

45 Location for statistics and publications DWP section: DWP statistics: FRS page: HBAI page: PI Series page: 45