Labour Markets - Regional Ontario

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Angelica Gallagher
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1 Economics / May 218 Labour Markets - Regional Ontario Economics March 218 Only 1, net new jobs added in May Ontario s unemployment rate continued to inch up in May moving from 5.6 to 5.7 per cent due to growth in the number of Ontarians actively looking for work (.2 per cent or 13,9 new entrants) and saw nearly unchanged growth to those currently working (.1 per cent growth or only 1, net new jobs created in the month). In the month, 2,9 full-time jobs were created (.4 per cent growth) while 19,9 part-time jobs were shed (a decline of 1.5 per cent in the month) leading to the 1, net new jobs created in the month. The Ontario economy is at or near capacity, as we have mentioned before in previous briefi ngs. The 1,-net gain in jobs refl ects that. In May, Ontario s economy employed 7.29 million people which is only.2 per cent off the maximum number of people employed in the province since data has been collected starting in That high-point occurred only a few months back in December 217. By sector, the services-sector added 14,8 jobs in May with strong job gains in transportation and warehousing, fi nance, insurance, and real estate, professional and scientific services, business building, and accommodation and food services. On the other hand, the goods-producing sector shed 13,8 jobs due to signifi cant losses of jobs in manufacturing and construction. The Ontario economy continues to work near capacity. Employers need labour due to increased confi dence (more on that below in the small and medium enterprise confi dence section) but continue to face labour shortages. Employers continue to move workers from part-time to full-time in hopes of increasing production. Toronto Over the last three months employment has declined at a faster clip than the decline in the labour force in the Toronto region thus pushing up the unemployment rate by.4 points to 6.1 per cent. Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula In the Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula region over the last three months employment and labour force growth declined. The drop to employment (1.4 per cent or 1,558 jobs) was stronger than the drop to the labour force (1.2 per cent or 9,57 workers) pushed the unemployment rate up by.2 points to 5.3 per cent. Ottawa The unemployment rate in the Ottawa region fell by a one per cent over the last three months due to strong employment growth (1.7 per cent) well over twice the growth to the labour force (.6 per cent). Moreover, the Ottawa region s labour market has been growing for eight consecutive months. Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Over the last three months employment in the region grew at a slower clip than the labour force thus pushing the unemployment rate up slightly by.3 points to 5.3 per cent. Windsor-Sarnia Over the last three months the labour force expanded in the region but employment could not keep up with this expansion, in fact, employment shrank by.1 per cent. This pushed the unemployment rate up by.7 points to 5.5 per cent. A slight silver lining over the last three months. The labour force increased after several months of contraction. Workers perhaps are encouraged to look for work. London Employment growth continues to outstrip growth to the labour force, at rates of one and.1 per cent respectively. The unemployment rate has dropped signifi cantly by.8 points to 5.8 per cent. Northeast Employment growth in the region continues to outstrip labour force growth helping to pull the unemployment rate below six per cent to 5.8 per cent. Over the last year, the hiring of over 4,9 workers posted over the last three months is the strongest hiring spree. Kingston-Pembroke Previous employment growth attracted more people 1

2 to the labour market in the region. The labour force expanded by 3.4 per cent over the last three months while employment expanded by 2.7 per cent. The labour force jumped up.7 points to 4.3 per cent. Muskoka-Kawarthas The region s labour market continues to contract. Over the last three months the labour force contracted by 3.2 per cent and employment shrank by 2.5 per cent. The overall contraction pulled the unemployment rate further down to 5.6 per cent from 6.2 per cent three months prior. Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Employment grew at a strong clip over the last four months (4.4 per cent), twice the rate of the labour force growth (2.2 per cent). The unemployment rate declined 2.1 per cent to 3.1 per cent. The region s unemployment rate is the lowest among all of Ontario s regions. Northwest Strong employment growth that eclipses the labour force continued over the last three months in the region helping to push the unemployment rate lower by.4 points to 5.1 per cent. Edgard Navarrete Regional Economist, Central 1 Credit Union enavarrete@central1.com

3 Labour Market, Ontario Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data 21 7, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , YTD* 7,5.8 7, YTD* 7, , * YTD = Calendar year-to-date Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data 217M3 7, , M4 7, , M5 7, , M6 7, , M7 7, , M8 7, , M9 7, , M1 7, , M11 7, , M12 7, , M1 7, , M2 7, , M3 7, , M4 7, , M5 7, , Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 3

4 Employment (x 1,): Ontario Unemployment (%): Ontario 7,24 7,2 7,16 Seasonally Adjusted ,12 7, ,4 7, 6. 6, ,92 6, Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Ontario Participation (%): Ontario

5 Full-Time & Part-Time Employment, Ontario Period Full-Time Employment Part-Time Employment Full-Time Part-Time x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data 21 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , YTD* 5, , YTD* 5, , * YTD = Calendar year-to-date Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data 217M3 5, , M4 5, , M5 5, , M6 5, , M7 5, , M8 5, , M9 5, , M1 5, , M11 5, , M12 5, , M1 5, , M2 5, , M3 5, , M4 5, , M5 5, , Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 5

6 Full-Time Employment (x 1,): Ontario Monthly Change in Full-Time Employment (x 1,, SA): ONT. 5,92 5,88 Seasonally Adjusted 8 6 5,84 4 5,8 5,76 5,72 5, ,64-4 5,6-6 5,56-8 Part-Time Employment (x 1,): Ontario Monthly Change in Part-Time Employment (x 1,, SA): ONT. 1,42 1,4 Seasonally Adjusted 6 4 1,38 2 1,36 1,34 1,32-2 1,3-4 1,28-6 1,26-8 Share of Full-Time Employment (%, SA): ONT. Share of Part-Time Employment (%, SA): ONT

7 Employment by Class of Worker, Ontario Period Employees, Private Sector Employees, Public Sector Self-Employed x 1, % Change x 1, % Change x 1, % Change Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data 21 4, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , YTD* 4, ,34.6 1, YTD* 4, , , * YTD = Calendar year-to-date Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data 217M3 4, , , M4 4, , , M5 4, , , M6 4, , , M7 4, , , M8 4, , , M9 4, , , M1 4, , , M11 4, , , M12 4, , , M1 4, , , M2 4, , , M3 4, , , M4 4, , , M5 4, , , Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 7

8 Employees, Private Sector (x 1,): ONT. Monthly Change in Employees, Private Sector (x 1,, SA): ONT. 4,8 4,75 Seasonally Adjusted 6 4 4,7 2 4,65 4,6-2 4,55-4 4,5-6 Self-Employed (x 1,): ONT. Monthly Change in Self-Employed (x 1,, SA): ONT. 1,14 1,13 Seasonally Adjusted 3 2 1,12 1,11 1 1,1 1,9-1 1,8 1,7-2 1,6-3 Employees, Public Sector (x 1,): ONT. Monthly Change in Employees, Public Sector (x 1,, SA): ONT. 1,38 1,36 Seasonally Adjusted ,34 1 1,32 1, ,28-3 1,26-4 Employment, Class of Worker, Index =1 in 27: Private Public Self

9 Ottawa Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 9

10 Employment (x 1,): Ottawa Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Ottawa Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): Ottawa Participation (%): Ottawa Ottawa (SA 3-MMA) Ottawa (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Ottawa Ottawa (SA 3-MMA)

11 Kingston-Pembroke Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 11

12 Employment (x 1,): Kingston-Pembroke Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Kingston-Pembroke Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): Kingston-Pembroke Participation (%): Kingston-Pembroke 8 7 Kingston-Pembroke (SA 3-MMA) Kingston-Pembroke (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Kingston-Pembroke Kingston-Pembroke (SA 3-MMA)

13 Muskoka-Kawarthas Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 13

14 Employment (x 1,): Muskoka-Kawarthas Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Muskoka-Kawarthas Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): Muskoka-Kawarthas Participation (%): Muskoka-Kawarthas 1 9 Muskoka-Kawarthas (SA 3-MMA) Muskoka-Kawarthas (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Muskoka-Kawarthas Muskoka-Kawarthas (SA 3-MMA)

15 Toronto Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data 21 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , YTD* 3, , YTD* 3, , * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M3 3, , M4 3, , M5 3, , M6 3, , M7 3, , M8 3, , M9 3, , M1 3, , M11 3, , M12 3, , M1 3, , M2 3, , M3 3, , M4 3, , M5 3, , Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 15

16 Employment (x 1,): Toronto Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Toronto 3,55 3,5 Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA 3 2 3,45 3,4 1 3,35 3,3 3,25-1 3,2-2 Unemployment (%): Toronto Participation (%): Toronto Toronto (SA 3-MMA) Toronto (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Toronto Toronto (SA 3-MMA)

17 Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 17

18 Employment (x 1,): Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Participation (%): Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (SA 3-MMA) 71 7 Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (SA 3-MMA)

19 Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 19

20 Employment (x 1,): Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Participation (%): Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (SA 3-MMA) Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (SA 3-MMA)

21 London Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 21

22 Employment (x 1,): London Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): London Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): London Participation (%): London London (SA 3-MMA) London (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: London London (SA 3-MMA)

23 Windsor-Sarnia Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 23

24 Employment (x 1,): Windsor-Sarnia Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Windsor-Sarnia Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): Windsor-Sarnia Participation (%): Windsor-Sarnia 1 9 Windsor-Sarnia (SA 3-MMA) Windsor-Sarnia (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Windsor-Sarnia Windsor-Sarnia (SA 3-MMA)

25 Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 25

26 Employment (x 1,): Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Participation (%): Stratford-Bruce Peninsula 8 7 Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (SA 3-MMA) Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (SA 3-MMA)

27 Northeast Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 27

28 Employment (x 1,): Northeast Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Northeast Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): Northeast Participation (%): Northeast Northeast (SA 3-MMA) Northeast (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Northeast Northeast (SA 3-MMA)

29 Northwest Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Participation x 1, % Change x 1, % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 217M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 29

30 Employment (x 1,): Northwest Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,): Northwest Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment (%): Northwest Participation (%): Northwest Northwest (SA 3-MMA) Northwest (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =1 in 27: Northwest Northwest (SA 3-MMA)

31 Labour Force Statistics Defi nitions and Explanatory Notes Reference Week Monthly estimates of employment, unemployment, and persons not in the labour force refer to the specifi c week covered by the survey each month, normally the week containing the 15th day. Labour Force The labour force is composed of those members of the civilian non-institutional population 15 years of age and over who, during the reference week, were employed or unemployed. Employed Employed persons are those who, during the reference week, either: (a) did any work at all, or (b) had a job but were not at work due to own illness or disability, personal or family responsibilities, bad weather, labour dispute, vacation, or other reason not specifi ed above (excluding persons whose job attachment was to a job to start at a defi nite date in the future). Unemployment Unemployed persons are those who, during the reference week, either: (a) were without work, had actively looked for work in the past four weeks (ending with the reference week), and were available for work; or (b) had not actively looked for work in the past four weeks but had been on layoff and were available for work; or (c) had not actively looked for work in the past four weeks but had a new job to start in four weeks or less from the reference week, and were available for work. Unemployment The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force. The unemployment rate for a particular group (age, sex, marital status, etc.) is the number of unemployed in that group expressed as a percentage of the labour force for that group. Participation The participation rate represents the labour force expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over. The participation rate for a particular group (age, sex, marital status, etc.)is the labour force for that group expressed as a percentage of the population for that group. Employment The employment rate(employment/population ratio) is the number of employed persons expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over. The employment rate for a particular group (age, sex, marital status, etc.) is the employment for that group expressed as a percentage of the population for that group. Rounding Estimates published by the Labour Force Survey are rounded to the nearest thousand but all derived values (totals, averages, rates, ratios, percent changes, etc.) are calculated from unrounded fi gures. Therefore, the sum of the individual rounded items may not equal the total. Seasonal Adjustment Fluctuations in economic time series are caused by seasonal, cyclical and irregular movements. A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal movements have been eliminated. Seasonal movements are defined as those which are caused by regular annual events such as climate, holidays, vacation periods, and cycles related to crops, production and retail sales associated with Christmas and Easter. It should be noted that the seasonally adjusted series contain irregular as well as longer-term cyclical fl uctuations. 31

Labour Markets - Regional Ontario

Economics / September 2018 Labour Markets - Regional Ontario Economics March 2018 Hiring increased in September but was all part-time jobs growth After shedding over 80,000 jobs last month, employment