Labour Markets - Regional Ontario
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1 Economics / September 2018 Labour Markets - Regional Ontario Economics March 2018 Hiring increased in September but was all part-time jobs growth After shedding over 80,000 jobs last month, employment in September increased by 36,100 net new hires. Unfortunately, were it not for the 38,900-net part-time new hires which overshadowed the shedding of 2,700 full-time jobs, employment would have shrunk again in September. With more people looking for work than those being hired, the unemployment rate inched up from 5.7 to 5.9 per cent this month. Ontario s unemployment rate remains well below the long-term average of 7.4 per cent and has not surpassed six per cent in Moreover, the level of part-time employment observed in September 2018 is consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Both the goods and services sectors increased hiring in September by 0.9 and 0.4 per cent respectively. Key sectors with job gains in the month included: Construction (2.6 per cent growth or 13,700 net new hires) Educational services (2.7 per cent growth or 14,200 net new hires) Finance, insurance, and real estate (1.7 per cent growth or 9,700 net new hires) Wholesale and retail trade (0.8 per cent or 8,400 net new hires) These survey results were conducted before the recent and sudden trade agreement signing at the start of October and the numbers refl ect the uncertainty in the economy. Business owners were apprehensive to hire full-time workers and therefore they chose to hire more part-time workers to hedge against any downside risks in terms of demand for their goods and services. Toronto Over the last three months the unemployment rate declined a tad from 6.3 to 6.1 per cent due to a 0.2 per cent decline in the labour force while employment remained unchanged. The Toronto metro area s unemployment rate also declined from 6.3 to 6.1 per cent while the Oshawa metro area s unemployment rate moved up to 5.6 from 4.2 per cent. Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Over the last three months the region s unemployment rate moved up robustly from 5.1 to 6.1 per cent due to a nearly one per cent contraction to employment and an increase of 0.2 per cent to the labour force. The Hamilton metro area s unemployment rate edged up from 4.6 to 5.2 per cent while the St. Catharines-Niagara metro area unemployment rate jumped 1.2 per cent to 7.5 per cent over the last three months. Ottawa Over the last three months the 0.6 per cent decline in employment that off-set the 0.3 per cent drop to the labour forced helped to raise the unemployment rate 0.3 points to 4.6 per cent in the region. In the Ottawa metro area, the unemployment rate increased 0.2 points to 4.5 per cent. Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Over the last three months the unemployment rate in the region declined one per cent to 4.4 due to strong growth. The labour force increased by 2.5 per cent while employment grow3.6 the outpaced labour force growth coming in at 3.6 per cent higher. The unemployment rates decreased in all three metro areas in the region. In Barrie metro area the unemployment rate fell to 5.8 per cent (1.1 per cent lower), in the Guelph metro area the unemployment rate fell to 3.6 per cent (0.9 points lower), and in the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo metro area the unemployment rate fell 0.9 points to 5.1 per cent. 1
2 Windsor-Sarnia The region s unemployment rate jumped 1.4 per cent over the last three months due to a one per cent drop in employment while the labour force increased by 0.6 per cent. Windsor metro area s unemployment rate jumped from 5.8 to 7.3 per cent. London The region s unemployment rate fell by 0.8 points to 4.8 per cent over the last three months due to stronger employment growth (2.8 per cent) that offset the growth in labour (two per cent). 2.3 per cent growth in employment than more than compensated for the one per cent increase in labour. Northwest The region s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.4 per cent over the last three months due to an equal 0.5 per cent drop to both labour and employment. Edgard Navarrete Regional Economist, Central 1 Credit Union enavarrete@central1.com The London metro area s unemployment rate fell from 5.5 to 5.3 per cent. Northeast Stronger employment growth (1.3 per cent) overshadowed the growth in labour (one per cent) in the region over the last three months pushing the unemployment rate down 0.2 points to 5.8 per cent. Kingston-Pembroke A static employment level and a 0.2 per cent drop in labour decreased the unemployment rate from 5.4 to 5.2 per cent over the last three months in the region. In the Kingston metro area, the unemployment rate fell slightly from 5.6 to 5.5 per cent. Muskoka-Kawarthas Despite impressive economic growth in the region the unemployment rate edged up 0.2 points to 6.8 per cent over the last three months due to stronger labour growth (8.7 per cent) that overshadowed employment growth (8.5 per cent). Peterborough metro area s unemployment rate jumped up 2.9 per cent to 5.6 per cent. Stratford-Bruce Peninsula The region s unemployment rate fell 1.2 per cent to 3.5 per cent over the last three months due to 2
3 Labour Market, Ontario Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , YTD* 7, , YTD* 7, , * YTD = Calendar year-to-date Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data 2017M07 7, , M08 7, , M09 7, , M10 7, , M11 7, , M12 7, , M01 7, , M02 7, , M03 7, , M04 7, , M05 7, , M06 7, , M07 7, , M08 7, , M09 7, , Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 3
4 Employment (x 1,000): Ontario Unemployment Rate (%): Ontario 7,400 7,300 Seasonally Adjusted , ,100 7, , , Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Ontario Participation Rate (%): Ontario
5 Full-Time & Part-Time Employment, Ontario Period Full-Time Employment Part-Time Employment Full-Time Rate Part-Time Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , YTD* 5, , YTD* 5, , * YTD = Calendar year-to-date Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data 2017M07 5, , M08 5, , M09 5, , M10 5, , M11 5, , M12 5, , M01 5, , M02 5, , M03 5, , M04 5, , M05 5, , M06 5, , M07 5, , M08 5, , M09 5, , Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 5
6 Full-Time Employment (x 1,000): Ontario Monthly Change in Full-Time Employment (x 1,000, SA): ONT. 5,950 5,900 Seasonally Adjusted , , , , , , , Part-Time Employment (x 1,000): Ontario Monthly Change in Part-Time Employment (x 1,000, SA): ONT. 1,420 1,400 Seasonally Adjusted , , , , , , , Share of Full-Time Employment (%, SA): ONT. Share of Part-Time Employment (%, SA): ONT
7 Employment by Class of Worker, Ontario Period Employees, Private Sector Employees, Public Sector Self-Employed x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , YTD* 4, , , YTD* 4, , , * YTD = Calendar year-to-date Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data 2017M07 4, , , M08 4, , , M09 4, , , M10 4, , , M11 4, , , M12 4, , , M01 4, , , M02 4, , , M03 4, , , M04 4, , , M05 4, , , M06 4, , , M07 4, , , M08 4, , , M09 4, , , Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 7
8 Employees, Private Sector (x 1,000): ONT. Monthly Change in Employees, Private Sector (x 1,000, SA): ONT. 4,800 4,750 Seasonally Adjusted , , , , , Self-Employed (x 1,000): ONT. Monthly Change in Self-Employed (x 1,000, SA): ONT. 1,140 1,130 Seasonally Adjusted ,120 1, , , ,080 1, , Employees, Public Sector (x 1,000): ONT. Monthly Change in Employees, Public Sector (x 1,000, SA): ONT. 1,440 1,400 Seasonally Adjusted , , , , Employment, Class of Worker, Index =100 in 2007: Private Public Self
9 Ottawa Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 9
10 Employment (x 1,000): Ottawa Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Ottawa Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): Ottawa Participation Rate (%): Ottawa Ottawa (SA 3-MMA) Ottawa (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Ottawa Ottawa (SA 3-MMA)
11 Kingston-Pembroke Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 11
12 Employment (x 1,000): Kingston-Pembroke Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Kingston-Pembroke Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): Kingston-Pembroke Participation Rate (%): Kingston-Pembroke 9 8 Kingston-Pembroke (SA 3-MMA) Kingston-Pembroke (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Kingston-Pembroke Kingston-Pembroke (SA 3-MMA)
13 Muskoka-Kawarthas Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 13
14 Employment (x 1,000): Muskoka-Kawarthas Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Muskoka-Kawarthas Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): Muskoka-Kawarthas Participation Rate (%): Muskoka-Kawarthas 10 9 Muskoka-Kawarthas (SA 3-MMA) Muskoka-Kawarthas (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Muskoka-Kawarthas Muskoka-Kawarthas (SA 3-MMA)
15 Toronto Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , YTD* 3, , YTD* 3, , * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M07 3, , M08 3, , M09 3, , M10 3, , M11 3, , M12 3, , M01 3, , M02 3, , M03 3, , M04 3, , M05 3, , M06 3, , M07 3, , M08 3, , M09 3, , Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union
16 Employment (x 1,000): Toronto Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Toronto 3,550 3,500 Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA ,450 3, , ,300 3, , Unemployment Rate (%): Toronto Participation Rate (%): Toronto Toronto (SA 3-MMA) Toronto (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Toronto Toronto (SA 3-MMA)
17 Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 17
18 Employment (x 1,000): Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Participation Rate (%): Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (SA 3-MMA) Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (SA 3-MMA)
19 Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 19
20 Employment (x 1,000): Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Participation Rate (%): Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (SA 3-MMA) Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (SA 3-MMA)
21 London Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 21
22 Employment (x 1,000): London Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): London Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): London Participation Rate (%): London London (SA 3-MMA) London (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: London London (SA 3-MMA)
23 Windsor-Sarnia Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 23
24 Employment (x 1,000): Windsor-Sarnia Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Windsor-Sarnia Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): Windsor-Sarnia Participation Rate (%): Windsor-Sarnia 10 9 Windsor-Sarnia (SA 3-MMA) Windsor-Sarnia (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Windsor-Sarnia Windsor-Sarnia (SA 3-MMA)
25 Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 25
26 Employment (x 1,000): Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Participation Rate (%): Stratford-Bruce Peninsula 8 7 Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (SA 3-MMA) Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (SA 3-MMA)
27 Northeast Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 27
28 Employment (x 1,000): Northeast Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Northeast Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): Northeast Participation Rate (%): Northeast Northeast (SA 3-MMA) Northeast (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Northeast Northeast (SA 3-MMA)
29 Northwest Period Labour Force Employed Unemployment Rate Participation Rate x 1,000 % Change x 1,000 % Change % % Average of Unadjusted Monthly Data YTD* YTD* * YTD = Calendar year-to-date based on 3-month moving average monthly data Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Monthly Data 2017M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Source: Based on Statistics Canada data, Central 1 Credit Union 29
30 Employment (x 1,000): Northwest Monthly Change in Employment (x 1,000): Northwest Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA Unemployment Rate (%): Northwest Participation Rate (%): Northwest Northwest (SA 3-MMA) Northwest (SA 3-MMA) Employment, Index =100 in 2007: Northwest Northwest (SA 3-MMA)
31 Labour Force Statistics Defi nitions and Explanatory Notes Reference Week Monthly estimates of employment, unemployment, and persons not in the labour force refer to the specifi c week covered by the survey each month, normally the week containing the 15th day. Labour Force The labour force is composed of those members of the civilian non-institutional population 15 years of age and over who, during the reference week, were employed or unemployed. Employed Employed persons are those who, during the reference week, either: (a) did any work at all, or (b) had a job but were not at work due to own illness or disability, personal or family responsibilities, bad weather, labour dispute, vacation, or other reason not specifi ed above (excluding persons whose job attachment was to a job to start at a defi nite date in the future). Unemployment Unemployed persons are those who, during the reference week, either: (a) were without work, had actively looked for work in the past four weeks (ending with the reference week), and were available for work; or (b) had not actively looked for work in the past four weeks but had been on layoff and were available for work; or (c) had not actively looked for work in the past four weeks but had a new job to start in four weeks or less from the reference week, and were available for work. Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force. The unemployment rate for a particular group (age, sex, marital status, etc.) is the number of unemployed in that group expressed as a percentage of the labour force for that group. Participation Rate The participation rate represents the labour force expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over. The participation rate for a particular group (age, sex, marital status, etc.)is the labour force for that group expressed as a percentage of the population for that group. Employment Rate The employment rate(employment/population ratio) is the number of employed persons expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over. The employment rate for a particular group (age, sex, marital status, etc.) is the employment for that group expressed as a percentage of the population for that group. Rounding Estimates published by the Labour Force Survey are rounded to the nearest thousand but all derived values (totals, averages, rates, ratios, percent changes, etc.) are calculated from unrounded fi gures. Therefore, the sum of the individual rounded items may not equal the total. Seasonal Adjustment Fluctuations in economic time series are caused by seasonal, cyclical and irregular movements. A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal movements have been eliminated. Seasonal movements are defi ned as those which are caused by regular annual events such as climate, holidays, vacation periods, and cycles related to crops, production and retail sales associated with Christmas and Easter. It should be noted that the seasonally adjusted series contain irregular as well as longerterm cyclical fl uctuations. 31
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