Development? What for? by Dr Edward CY Yiu Associate Professor Urban Studies Programme Chinese University of Hong Kong 1

Transcription

1 A Talk to the Session: Conservation + Development = Our Lives Youth to Sustainability Summit AIESEC@CUHK, 7 June 2014 Development? What for? by Dr Edward CY Yiu Associate Professor Urban Studies Programme Chinese University of Hong Kong 1

2 What is Sustainable Development? Sustainable Development is a balanced development between economic, social and environmental development. NO! Sustainable Development is a Wrong Question!! Why we need development? What is development? What for? 2

3 What is Development? Development = Wealth? Wealth? = Economic Growth? Economic Growth = GDP Growth? GDP Growth? = Real Estate Development? Different Metrics will have different Results 3

4 GDP (PPP), HK v SIN HK Rank SIN Rank Population 7.2 m 5.4 m GDP (PPP) 2013 US$369.4b US$326.5b GDP yoy (PPP) 1.4% 1.3% GDP 5yr annual growth 2.5% 4.3% Per capita GDP (PPP) $51,494 6 $60,410 3 Unemployment 3.3% % 13 Inflation 4.1% 4.6% FDI Inflow $74.6b 3 $56.7b 4 4

5 GDP (PPP) Growth % SAR HK v. SIN v. Swiss Data from 5

6 Rankings 2014 Index of Economic Freedom EIU Best City Urban Mobility Index (Public Transport) IMD World Competitiveness 4 WJP Order and Security Why we need to be the first, every time, everything? Why we need to compare our performance with others? HK 6

7 What is GDP Growth? GDP Economic Growth GDP Wealth GDP Well Being GDP Equity 铁公基 Different Metrics Different Tricks Demolition and Construction double count 7

8 HK GDP Growth by Econ. Activity Econ. Activity Q1-Q3 Construction 8.3% 3.1 Services 1.8% 3.0 Manufacturing -0.8% -0.1 Agriculture?? GDP 1.5% 2.9% Services Q1-Q3 Real Estate 3.9% -4.2% (3D measures) Wholesale and retail 7.3% 10.5% Postal and courier 6.4% 14.1% 8

9 Public Infrastructure Exp. 31% up 116% up 9

10 Public Infrastructure Exp. Year Capital Fund Exp (HK$b) yoy Total Govt Exp. (HK$b) 2005/ % 2006/ % % 2007/ % % 2008/ % % To boost economy 2009/ % % 2010/ % % 2011/ % % 2012/ % % 2013/ % % Total HK$453.7b HK$2,263.3b 20% % 10

11 More Public Infrastructure Exp. In Future Work In Progress Projects Cost Forecasts (HK$b) Planning Projects Cost Forecasts (HK$b) 廣深港高鐵 GZH Railway 66.9 新界東北 NENT NDA 120 港珠澳大橋 HZM Bridge 屯門西繞道及屯門至赤鱲角連接路 Highway 港深西部快速軌道 HSW Railway 機場第三條跑道 3 rd Runway 蓮塘口岸 Border 24.4 中部水域人工島 CW Artificial Island 150 Total HK$191.5b Total HK$510b 11

12 Construction and Infrastructure Led Growth? Diminishing marginal return; i.e. less and less efficient; Overcapacity and ghost cities; Waste of resources, environmental damage; Unsustainable growth model; Inputs > Outputs; Biased wealth distribution; Government officials, Bankers, Developers, Contractors, 12

13 What is Development? WB Human development is the end economic growth a means. But [when] growth was achieved at the cost of greater inequality, higher unemployment, weakened democracy, loss of cultural identity, or overconsumption of natural resources needed by future generations this kind of growth is inevitably unsustainable. (World Bank, 2004, What is Development?) 13

14 Very High Human Development HDI Swiss HK SIN New 2013 Estimates Year Life expectancy at birth Expected years of schoolings Mean years of schooling GNI per cap HDI , GDP again! Bad Metrics Lead to Wrong Direction 14

15 Very High HDI, But Poor Lives 15

16 Health What is Development For? Security Respect Personality Harmony with Nature Friendship Leisure (Skidelsky and Skidelsky, 2012, How Much is Enough?) 16

17 But Work to Death Annual Working Hours HK Chile Germany 2012 Estimates 2,296 2,029 1,397 Rank 5 Prices and Earnings UBS, SIN = 46hrs/wk, HK = 45hrs/wk 17

18 But Poor Living Quality Unaffordable Housing; Subdivided Flats and Coffin Rooms; Dilapidated Buildings and Walled City. 18

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21 Population Density of HK is 3 times higher than SIN

22 Country/ city GDP per Capita Ave. Living Area (sf) Per Person (sf) US 51,704 2,476 ~800 Taiwan 38,357 1,119 ~370 SIN 60,799 1, Tokyo 35, ~220 Shanghai 9, HK 50, Ave per person living area of HK = 0.5 of SIN

23 Unaffordable Housing Housing Price to Income Ratio: HK 2013 = 13.5, SIN 2013 = 5.1 SIN

24 Not Due to Insufficient Supply, then Why? Year Private Housing Subsidized Housing Public Rental Housing Total Housing Stock - Households ,000 36, ,000 1,111, , , , ,000 1,696,000-10, ,258, , ,000 2,332, , ,458, , ,000 2,616, ,200 Fast increases of both public and private housing stocks, from shortage to surplus

25 But Inequality City / Country Rank Gini Hong Kong Asia Highest Singapore Norway Global Lowest

26 The Most Expensive Apartment in The Opus Frank Gehry-designed; (6,683 square feet); HK$455 million in 2012; i.e. HK$68,000 psf. (US$8,700 psf) the World? 26

27 The Second Most Expensive Luxury Housing in the World 27

28 ional/ countries-wherepolitically-connected-businessmen-aremost-likely-prosper-planet 28

29 Asset Return > GDP Growth, Why? Monopoly! 香港因壟斷制度造成的貧富不均, 正如皮凱提理論所言, 已成為資本制度內必然形成的惡果, 萬劫不復 姚松炎 : 從房產研究分析 21 世紀資本論 29

30 Money, Land, Housing Money supply is fiat Land supply is monopolized Housing supply is oligopolized Development What For?

31 The End comments are welcome. Enquiries to: 31