PENSIONS FOR ALL: System for Argentina Nicolás Ajzenman and Pilar Tavella. Lacea Labor Network March 3 rd, 2016
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1 PENSIONS FOR ALL: Towards a Universal Pension System for Argentina Nicolás Ajzenman and Pilar Tavella Lacea Labor Network March 3 rd, 2016
2 Outline 1 Background 2 Diagnostics 1 2 Informality Financial unsustainability 3 Pension system reform 1 2 Pillar 1: What, why, how does it solve informality? Pillar 2: What, why, how does it help consumption smoothing? 4 Financing the transition 1 2 Is the pension reform financially sustainable? Fiscal reform: Why and how does it solve sustainability?
3 A History of Deficits No System PayGO Mixed PayGO
4 Where are we now? PayGo-DB Financially Unsustainable (partially funded with taxes)
5 Where are we now? PayGo-DB Financially Unsustainable (partially funded with taxes) Low Replacement Ratio
6 Where are we now? PayGo-DB Financially Unsustainable (partially funded with taxes) Low Replacement Ratio Wrong Incentives in the Labor Market (high payroll taxes)
7 Where are we now? PayGo-DB Financially Unsustainable (partially funded with taxes) Low Replacement Ratio Wrong Incentives in the Labor Market (high payroll taxes) Labor Informality
8 Where are we now? PayGo-DB Financially Unsustainable (partially funded with taxes) Low Replacement Ratio Wrong Incentives in the Labor Market (high payroll taxes) Labor Informality
9 Where are we now? PayGo-DB Financially Unsustainable (partially funded with taxes) Low Replacement Ratio Wrong Incentives in the Labor Market (high payroll taxes) Structurally noninclusive Labor Informality
10 Where are we now? PayGo-DB Financially Unsustainable (partially funded with taxes) Low Replacement Ratio Wrong Incentives in the Labor Market (high payroll taxes) Poverty Reduction and Inclusion Structurally noninclusive Labor Informality
11 Where are we now? PayGo-DB Financially Unsustainable (partially funded with taxes) Low Replacement Ratio Wrong Incentives in the Labor Market (high payroll taxes) Unfunded expenses Poverty Reduction and Inclusion Structurally noninclusive Labor Informality Desirable outcomes: smooth consumption? Reduce poverty rate? Not Distortive? Sustainable?
12 Sustainability: is it becoming
13 Sustainability: is it becoming
14 Universal Flat Pension Non Contributory
15 Giving the right incenhves
16 Is it inclusive? Yes! By construchon: the only condihon to get a pension is to be old and the pension is exactly the amount needed to be above the poverty lineà 0% poverty rate among the elderly (by law!) Does it provide the right incenhves to labor? Yes: Bosch et al. (2011) and Levy et al. (2010) among others showed that reducing labor contribuhons has a causal negahve impact on informality.
17 Does it provide the right incenhves to labor? Yes: Bosch et al. (2011) and Levy et al. (2010) among others showed that reducing labor contribuhons has a causal negahve impact on informality. QuanHHes varies depending the country. Other authors (Cruces, 2014 for example) show that AUH increased informality, precisely because the benefits of formality are each Hme less our proposal closes part of that gap!
18 Does it let workers smooth consumphon*?
19 Is it structurally sustainable?
20 How do we finance the gap? Option A Option B Option C Option D Funding Alternatives Increase Income Tax Revenues by 20% (Today, 7% of GDP) Increase Vat Revenues by 20% (Today, 9% of GDP) Reduce transportation and energy subsidies to 2% of GDP (Today, 4.5%) Reduce transportation and energy subsidies to 2% of GDP (Today, 4.5%) and Increase Income Tax Revenues by 20%
21 How do we finance the gap?
22 Is it feasible to raise taxes?
23 To sum up. Today s system is not inclusive, financially unsustainable, doesn t smooth consumphon, doesn t encourage savings and encourages informality! Our system is 100% inclusive, much more sustainable (less dependant on demography), encourages formality, let workers smooth consumphon and heavily reduces the fiscal burden on households and firms
24 Thank you!
25 A History of Labor Informality
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