Income inequality in Italy: tendencies and policy implications
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1 Income inequality in Italy: tendencies and policy implications Maurizio Franzini (Sapienza University of Rome) Michele Raitano (Sapienza University of Rome)
2 Main questions Which are the main determinants of disposable income inequality? Is it enough to focus only on earnings? Does earnings inequality mainly depend on workers skills? Is it enough to rely only on redistribution as main strategy for reducing inequality? Which are the pros of a pre-distribution strategy? 2
3 Outline The steps of income distribution. The empirical evidence: Italy compared to OECD countries: Disposable income; Market incomes; Top incomes; Earnings. The limits of the redistribution. The merits of the pre-distribution. 3
4 The steps of income distribution From individual to household; from distribution to redistribution. 1. Individual labour earnings: Hourly wages, time of work, unemployment spells, kind of contracts matter. 2. Household (equivalent) market incomes: Household composition (number of components, ages); Employment rates (number of income recipients); The role played by non labour earnings. 3. Household equivalent disposable incomes: Personal taxes. Cash transfers. But how to impute in kind benefits and tax expenditures (over non income taxes)? Different mechanisms of inequality in the various steps. Public policies can act in all steps, not only through redistribution. 4
5 The empirical evidence: summary A. Common increase of disposable income ineq, but different trends and sizes. B. Italian puzzle: Gini roughly constant since 1995, but large internal movements and trends imperfectly recorded in surveys (migration, top incomes, hidden economy). C. Large and continuos increase of market income ineq (apart NL), especially in IT (also due to self-employed incomes). D. As known, huge increase of top income shares (recording gross individual incomes), especially in UK and US. E. Less clear trends as regards earnings, apart UK and US and Germany. Italy is characterized by a relatively low earnings ineq. F. Everywhere within education earnings inequality is predominant. In Italy the rise of inequality seems not due to education. 5
6 0.40 Trend of Gini of equivalent disposable income France Germany Netherlands Denmark Sweden Italy UK US
7 Trend of Gini of equivalent market income France Germany Netherlands Denmark Sweden Italy UK US
8 Trend of top 1% share 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% France Germany Netherlands Sweden Italy UK US
9 2.5 Trend of P90/P50 of employment gross earnings France Germany Netherlands Sweden Italy UK
10 Decomposition by education of gross earnings inequality (MLD index) 100% 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% % 20% 10% 0% France Germany Netherlands Denmark Sweden Italy UK "Within" inequality "Between" inequality 10
11 Share of earnings inequality explained by education in Italy (between at constant weights) 11
12 The role of redistribution Apart US, large differences in Gini pre and post. In Nordic countries largest intensity, but decreasing. In Italy strongest rise of the redistribution intensity => is the Italian welfare state an effective anti-ineq tool? However, measuring and comparing redistribution among countries is very difficult due to: Role of in-kind benefits and non income taxes; Mostly, intensity of redistribution is driven by pension benefits that are increasingly becoming an actuarial life cycle redistribution rather than a pure vertical redistribution among citizens => in Italy social non pension transfers only slightly reduce inequality. Is welfare state able to contrast market inequality? 12
13 Trend of the intensity of redistribution 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% France Germany Netherlands Denmark Sweden Italy UK US
14 Gini index of disposable income according to the inclusion of cash transfers Germany France Netherlands Denmark Sweden Italy UK Equivalent Income Equivalent income net of non pension cash transfers Equivalent income net of all welfare cash transfers 14
15 Towards a pre-distribution strategy? Inequality is not engendered by anonymous market forces (e.g. technology), but is shaped by policy choices. Policy choices act both on taxes and transfers and mostly on markets working (e.g. the Italian labour market deregulation on the bottom tail or financial markets deregulation in the upper tail). Redistribution cannot be pushed too much, also because it could dampen growth. And redistribution is not able to correct unacceptable inequalities, e.g. those coming from the impact of family background on labour market outcomes. An effective pre-distribution needs a two-pronged strategy: 1. Correcting endowments. 2. Changing market rules. 15
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