Executive Summary. 1. Introduction

Transcription

1 1. Introduction As a culmination of the preceding five Interim Reports, the Final Report, is being submitted as the last of the Consultant s reporting obligations under the contract between TAHAL Consulting Engineers Ltd. and the Government of Uganda (GOU), represented by the Ministry of Works, Housing and Communications (MOWHC). According to this contract, the Consultant is to prepare a National Transport Master, including a Transport Plan for the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). The work was performed in accordance with the Terms of Reference (TOR) incorporated in the contract signed on December 6, This Executive Summary is aimed at presenting the results and recommendations of the Consultant. It does not delve into details or methodology, and it strives to be precise and clear. It should be noted that the Master Planning is not a one shot operation and the current recommendations should be continuously reevaluated by the Ministry and the GKMA TMPO on a regular basis by creating, supporting and financing the planning teams. The study analyses the requirements in roads and highways, ferry services, air transport and rail. All of these fall under the umbrella of the National Transport System, in addition to proposing GKMA boundaries, a long term vision and a priority list of proposed projects and actions. 1.1 Background Although the economy of Uganda has improved considerably in recent years, it is still in the low range for a developing country. The national per capita GDP is about US$ 200 per year. The unrest in the north of the country is causing insecurity, contributing to the poor economic performance of the affected regions. The road system has deteriorated in the past decade, resulting barriers for markets, higher transport costs and lower profitability of crops and products. The railway network, which once covered about 1,500 km, has been reduced to a bare minimum of about 240 km, and transports mostly export and import goods between Kampala and the Kenyan port of Mombasa. Sea and river transportation, composed mostly of ferry boats serving as "bridges" across rivers, has also deteriorated, causing increased delays. Domestic air transport is very limited. A reasonable international air transport service, which uses the rehabilitated airport and the new terminal at Entebbe, is in existence. Concerning urban transport, most of the urban areas in the country are small; the exception is the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA), containing about 2.3 million people at present and expected to grow to about 3.6 million in the next 15 years. The present level of service of the transport system in the GKMA is very low and its improvement will call for drastic changes in the public UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-1

2 transport system, the road system, traffic management, and definition of the metropolitan area and its organization. A change in the type, direction and level of future investments is needed. In view of the present deficiencies in the transport systems, the Transport Master Plan will serve as the necessary tool to translate policy into action. 1.2 Study Objectives The Terms of Reference for this study specify the overall objective of the National Transport Master Plan (NTMP), as follows: The overall objective of the National Transport Master Plan, including the Transport Master Plan for the greater Kampala Metropolitan Area, is to enable the Government to decide future development and financing of the transport sector infrastructure based on medium to long-term projections of international, regional and domestic transport demand. Preparation of the master plans was based on comprehensive analyses performed by the Consultant, including the execution and analysis of numerous field studies, while also making reference to reports and work prepared by other consultants contracted by GOU in previous years. Preparation of the Transport Master Plan benefited from a series of workshops held with stakeholders, government officials, the private sector and parliament members. The analysis of future transport requirements was based on the economic and demographic scenarios developed during the study which reflect GOU policies. Transport models were constructed to determine the relationship between the economic/demographic parameters and trip generation, and this was an important step in the evaluation process and in the prioritization of investments. The Final Report is aimed at presenting a concise description of the country's transport system and its deficiencies, and in recommending actions for each transport sub-sector, including development priorities and an investment program. A component of the work during preparation of the National Transport Master Plan was the Master Plan for Greater Kampala. The report summarizes the main points of the study, including the needs, availability of funds, and recommendations for improvement. Detailed elements of the work are described in the three main reports, namely, Interim Report No. 3 (National Transport Master Plan), Interim Report No. 4 (GKMA Transport Master Plan) and Interim Report No. 5 (Proposed Institutional Arrangements). In addition, the Inception Report, and Interim Reports 1 and 2 (Analysis of Uganda s Transport Sector Strategy and Methodology, respectively) are attached in electronic form on a CD (see back cover of this report). UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-2

3 Please note that for ease in identifying figures, graphs, charts and tables, the Consultant has chosen to maintain the labels assigned in the Final and Interim Reports. It should be noted that this Final Report has been amended based on the comments made by MoWHC and various other agencies. It is in its final form. 1.3 The Transport Sector Investment Plan The following table (Table ES-1/F-2, overleaf) indicates the investment by period required in the transport sector for the only the major divisions and for two time periods; a) the short immediate range between and , which necessitates immediate decisions and b) during the second period between and The investment does not include two elements; a) renovation of the bus fleet, since it is assumed that the private sector will implement this, and b) the Ugandan Railways once the system is privatized. A negligible amount of capital is needed for these latter elements, and it is assumed that some injection of capital by the Government will be needed prior to privatization. The investment plan for the National Transport Master Plan is depicted in Figure ES-1/ F-2 (overleaf). As can be seen, the committed projects are within the envelope prepared by the Ugandan MoF. For additional details, the Client is referred to Section C and D of this Report, and to IR3 and IR4. The following sections provide a more detailed report for each sector. 1.4 Transport Master Plan A transport master plan is a tool aimed at achieving basically two objectives: (i) updating an existing transport/development policy or assisting in the preparation of such a policy in case it does not exist; and (ii) evaluating the needs and preparing a list of annual investments in the relevant transport sector/subsector, as well as a list of traffic management actions needed, in accordance with the Government s transport policy and the availability of funding. The TOR for the present study states that "the transport master plan is required to translate the broad policy and strategy aspirations into time bound measurable activities". Once a draft master plan exists, its overall objective is to enable the government to decide on future development and financing of the transport sector infrastructure based on projections of demand, and to develop a suitable institutional structure for implementation and monitoring. Thus the vision of the National Transport Master Plan for Uganda s transport system is that the country should have greatly improved roads at national, district and community levels for both public and private transport. In addition, shipping services, ferries and air connections, both international and to outlying areas of UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-3

4 the country, should be considerably strengthened. Strengthening of rail services might also be an outcome of privatization. Investment (including maintenance expenditure) in a wide range of transport facilities will respond to economic growth, rising living standards, an increased rate of motorization and the consequent higher demand for transportation facilities. In this plan, Uganda s population is forecast to grow at an average rate of 2.7% per annum (refer to Section B in this chapter), from 25.1 million to 37.2 million over the 15-year planning horizon, while the GDP is forecast to grow at an average of 6.7% per annum, from USh 9,480 billion to USh 24,955 billion (1997/98 prices) The GDP per capita is forecast to grow at an average of 4.1% per annum, from USh 377,000 to USh 671,000 (1997/98 prices). At the same time transportation investments will make a major contribution to poverty reduction and economic growth by: Reducing travel times and costs for persons and goods. Improving reliability, levels of service and efficiency. Enhancing access of producers to local and international markets and inputs. Improving the population's access to social and public services. Improving transportation for foreign business and holiday visitors to and within Uganda. Reducing accidents and their derived human and economic costs. Investment in the road sector, which will account for the largest share of the transport sector s needs, will be met to a large extent from the Government budget and donor contributions. Thus considerable attention is paid to an appropriate "budget envelope" for the roads and works sector. This also applies to ferry services, which have particular social impacts and which serve to all intents and purposes as extensions of roads. The budget envelope is the total sum of funds available during the plan period (15 years) for the transport sector, i.e. it is based on a coherent and consistent set of macro-economic variables and assumptions, including recurrent and development budgets, Government revenues and donor funds (refer to Table ES-1/ F-2; Chapter F and pg ). The railways, waterways and ports, and civil aviation sectors are somewhat different since privatization or commercialization either exist or are a potential alternative. Thus, there are possibilities of extra-budgetary funding of investment. In some cases, both types of funding are required, including writing off Government loans to privatized or commercialized entities. Investments in these sectors may therefore also have implications for resource envelopes, or for other macro-economic issues. According to the plan, the transport sector should concentrate on the development and maintenance of roads, which are considered to be the backbone of the economy and have been long neglected. 1 Figures available from the MoF UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-4

5 As regards the other sectors, the plan adopts previously existing proposals for the development of Entebbe International Airport and proposes development of the domestic air network, including a municipal airport in Kampala, totalling US$ 123 million over 15 years. This takes into account the size of the country, travel distances and times, and the need to support economic activities and tourism. In addition, investments are proposed in the ports. Investments in the railways and in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area have yet to be determined. 2. Demography and Economy Table ES-2 depicts the gross domestic product (GDP) for Uganda and the economic forecast. Table ES-2 Estimated Ugandan GDP Per Capita in US$ ( ) Year GDP per Capita Growth rate per year Residential (Figures ES-2a/ B-8a and ES-2b/ B-8b) and employment (Figures ES-3a/ B-9a and ES-3b/ B-9b) representations are attached (overleaf). 2.1 National Population and Economic Forecasts The population of Uganda in September 2002 was provisionally enumerated at 24.7 million, vs. that of January 1991, which was 16.7 million. The population grew rapidly, at an average annual rate of 3.3%. As far as future trends are concerned, it was indicated by UBOS that this rate could be adjusted downwards. In 1991 total households numbered 3.4 million, with an average household size of 4.8. In 2002 there were an estimated 5.1 million households with a slight fall in average household size to 4.7. The proportion of rural population remained very high in 2002, accounting for 88% of the total population, down from 89% in The rural population grew at an estimated 3.2% per year, vs. 3.9% for the urban population. These trends indicate considerable rural to urban migration, because the fertility rates of the urban population are much lower than those of the rural population (see Table ES-3). UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-5

6 Table ES-3 -Forecast of all National & GKMA Population For The Years GKMA National Population ,211,481 16,671,705 Population ,032,485 24,324,000 Growth rate % 3.3% Population base year ,119,000 25,119,000 Population ,592,000 29,036,000 Growth rate % 2.9% Population ,102,000 33,087,000 Growth rate % 2.6% Population ,648,000 37,219,000 Growth rate % 2.4% Percent Increase % 48.2% As detailed information is not yet available from the 2002 census, the following assumptions were made in order to derive population and household forecasts for the base year of 2003 and the five-year periods ending 2008, 2013 and 2018: The rate of total population growth in each five-year period will fall by 10% (UBOS projected a steeper decline in growth rates based on the 1991 census and its above-mentioned assumptions). The proportion of rural population will decrease at a rate of % per annum (UBOS projected a steeper decrease in the proportion of the rural population). Thus, the total population is forecasted to grow at 2.9% pa during the period to US$ 29 million, at 2.6% during to US$ 33 million, and at 2.4% pa during to US$ 37 million (see Figures ES-4/ B-1 and ES- 5/ B-2). Figure ES-4 (B-1) NTMP POPULATION PROJECTIONS Total Population Rural Population Urban Population Millions UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-6

7 Figure ES-5 (B-2) NTMP POPULATION GROWTH RATES 4.00% 3.00% Total Population Rural Population Urban Population 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% The total GKMA population is expected to increase by about 470,000 (22%) in the coming five years and by about 1,530,000 (72%) over the 15-year planning horizon Economic Growth During the first half of the last decade, Uganda enjoyed very high real growth rates, exceeding 10% in some years. The rates fell in the second half of the decade, but still remained at 5% or more. Between the years 1991 and 2002 (being the two census years) monetary GDP grew at an average rate of 7.5%, while non-monetary GDP (subsistence agriculture, etc.) grew at a rate of 3.5%, with total GDP growing at 6.5% (see Figure ES-6/ B-4). During this time, the share of monetary GDP increased from 70.7% to 78.6% (see Figure ES-7/ B-5). 15% Figure ES-6 (B-4) Growth Rate of GDP % Growth on Previous Year 10% 5% 0% Monetary GDP Non Monetary GDP Total GDP -5% UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-7

8 Figure ES-7 (B-5) CHANGE IN SHARE OF MONETARY GDP BY MAJOR SECTOR 0.4 SHARE OF GDP Agriculture Community services Wholesale & Retail Trade Manufacturing Construction Transport & Communication Forecasts of Growth in GDP Forecasts of GDP took into account the Long Term Expenditure Framework (LTEF) of the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) and additional information from the Bank of Uganda and the Kampala office of the World Bank. Further information on GDP and foreign trade forecasts was made available by the Bank of Uganda (BoU). Total GDP is forecast to grow by 6% pa during the period , and by 7% pa thereafter. 2 Sectoral GDP was forecast by extrapolating the trends in the shares of the sectors in total GDP between 1991 and This includes the share of non-monetary GDP. Agriculture and community services are thus projected to grow relatively slowly, between 5.1 and 7.0% pa, while other sectors are forecast to grow between 7.1 and 9.6% pa Forecasts of per Capita GDP The forecasts of population and the forecasts of total GDP were used to derive forecasts of per capita GDP. Real per capita GDP is forecast to grow by 3.0%, 4.2% and 4.5% pa in the successive five-year periods starting 2003 (see Figure ES-8/ B-6 and Table ES-2). These are high growth rates, which will impact significantly on the demand for transport. The real per capita GDP will grow from about US$ 200 pa to about US$ 340 pa. 2 Except for the year 2000, the total GDP annual growth rate has been more than 6% for the past five years. Therefore the projection of 6% for and 7% thereafter, as made by HFPED (LTEF) and BoU, and used here, is realistic. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-8

9 Figure ES-8 (B-6) GKMA POPULATION GROWTH AND GDP PER CAPITA Population Growth Rate % p.a. Per Capita GDP '000 Sh 97/98 Prices Population Growth Rate % p.a. 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% Per Capita GDP '000 Sh 97/98 Prices 3. Uganda National Transport System Interim Report No. 3 details the transport sector of Uganda, including the subsectors: roads, railways, waterways and civil aviation. Each sub-sector was analyzed and a development plan and investment plan prepared for it. By and large, the development program was based on the transport sector strategy 3 and on future growth predictions for the country in general, and for each region in particular. The development program for each transport sub-sector was also based on previous analyses and documents prepared by various Government agencies and consultants reports. Uganda s transport needs are predominantly served by the road system and this will remain so in the foreseeable future. The road system receives and will continue to receive the largest share of the budget. Nevertheless, the rail, water transport and air sectors also have vital roles to play in the national transport system. In many cases there are no efficient or costeffective alternatives to the services provided by the non-road sectors, especially given the impetus of globalization and international trade. Thus the vision of the National Transport Master Plan for Uganda s transport system is that the country will have greatly improved roads at national, district and community levels for both public and private transport. In addition, shipping services, ferries and air connections, both international and to outlying areas of 3 See Transport Sector Strategy, Parkman Report, June UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-9

10 the country, will be considerably strengthened. Strengthening of rail services might also be an outcome of privatization. Investment (including maintenance expenditure) in a wide range of transport facilities will respond to economic growth, rising living standards, an increased rate of motorization and the consequent higher demand for transportation facilities. In this plan Uganda s population is forecast to grow at an average rate of 2.7% per annum, from 25.1 million to 37.2 million over the 15-year planning horizon, while GDP is forecast to grow at an average of 6.7% per annum, from USh 9,480 billion to USh 24,955 billion (1997/98 prices). GDP per capita is forecast to grow at an average of 4.1% per annum, from USh 377,000 to USh 671,000 (1997/98 prices). At the same time transportation investments will make a major contribution to poverty reduction and economic growth by: Reducing travel times and costs for persons and goods. Improving reliability, levels of service and efficiency. Enhancing access of producers to local and international markets and inputs. Improving the population's access to social and public services. Improving transportation for foreign business and holiday visitors to and within Uganda. Reducing accidents and their derived human and economic costs. As regards the other sectors, the plan adopts previously existing proposals for the development of Entebbe International Airport and proposes development of the domestic air network, including a municipal airport in Kampala, totalling US$ 123 million over 15 years. This takes into account the size of the country, travel distances and times, and the need to support economic activities and tourism. In addition, investments are proposed in the ports. Investments in the railways and in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area have yet to be determined. 3.1 Summary of Investments in the National Transport System The proposed investment in the national transport sub-sector (not including GKMA) is summarized in Table ES-4 (C-11) [from Chapter C, pg C-50]. The Investment Plan incorporates investments for all transport sub-sectors, including those proposed by other consultants. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-10

11 TABLE C-11: INVESTMENT PLAN (NOT INCLUDING GKMA) Category Committed road projects 1 Sub-Category Ongoing upgrade Ongoing reconstruction, rehabilitation, improvement Sub-total Executive Summary Total US$ millions 2004/ / Proposed investments in roads and ferries 2 National roads new construction District roads Urban roads Community roads Black spot elimination Special projects Ferries National roads maintenance Sub-total , Justified investments in ports, air sector, rail EIA Kampala Municipal Airport Category 2 Airports (6) Category 3 Airfields (6) Ports 13.5 Rail To be determined Sub-total All Investments Total 2, Budget envelope US$ budget in constant terms (2003/04) available for transport 92.5% 3, Roads and works 3, Budget envelope less committed projects and road and ferry investment Budget envelope less committed projects and road and ferry, port and air sector investment (rail still to be determined) Includes donor funds No donor funds at this stage It should be noted that the total investment in EIA is US$ 93.1 million up to This table includes the investment up to 2018 only. Part possibly funded from private sources Ibid UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-11

12 3.2 Road Transport Figure ES-9/ C-1 depicts the current, ongoing projects and projected 15-year national road network. The dotted red lines represent future strategic roads. Figure ES-10/ C-2 presents the road surface types for all major roads within Uganda. Both figures are located overleaf. Table ES-5/K-5 shows the list of road upgrading projects ranked according to their Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR). The following further analyses were performed in order to ensure the robustness of the project implementation program: Each route was examined to ensure that successive upgrading of sections is logical in terms of the priority ranking. This ensures that routes that consist of more than two individually evaluated sections, each with its own priority, follow a logical implementation staging order from one end to the other, even though they may not be constructed one immediately after the other according to their implementation priority. The B/C ratio of each project was calculated to evaluate possible anomalies in the EIRR results. In cases where anomalies were encountered, the cash flow series were examined to ensure that there is a good explanation for the observed discrepancy. A sensitivity test was performed on all the links in the final project list. This test assumed a 15% higher construction cost than anticipated, 15% lower benefits in the base year and a 50% reduction in the growth in benefits over the evaluation period. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-12

13 TABLE ES 5(K-5) Project Implementation Programme List P Easy Ref DESCRIPTION Surface Upgrading Length IRR Cost Benefits B/C Ratio Sensitivity Ibanda-Kamwenge Unpaved Pave Mubende-Kakumiro Unpaved Pave Mukono-Kyetume Unpaved Pave Nakawa-Bweyogerere Paved Dual Kabale-Kisoro Unpaved Pave Kibuye-Najja Paved Dual Nebbi-Goli Customs Unpaved Pave Mpigi-Kanoni Unpaved Pave Gayaza-Kiwenda Unpaved Pave Bulamagi-Nyenga Rwy Stn Unpaved Pave Nasambya Jct-Gaba Paved Dual Kanoni-Mityana Unpaved Pave Bweyogerere-Silver Springs Paved Dual Kawuku-Bwerenga Unpaved Pave Zirobwe-Wobulenzi Unpaved Pave Katete-Nsongezi Unpaved Pave Kakumiro-Kibaale Brd Unpaved Pave Buhimba-Kibaale Brd Unpaved Pave Fort Portal-Kamwenge Unpaved Pave Lugazi-Njeru Unpaved Pave Hoima-Buhimba Unpaved Pave Atiak-Ayugi River Unpaved Pave Fort Portal-Kijura Unpaved Pave Villa Maria-Sembabule Unpaved Pave UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-13

14 Mityana-Busunju Unpaved Pave Fort Portal-Karugutu Unpaved Pave Laropi-Ayugi River Unpaved Pave Manibe-Koboko Unpaved Pave Kalerwe Rbt-Kawempe Paved Dual Adwilla-Agwata Unpaved Pave Bugolobi-Portbell Paved Dual Moyo-Laropi Unpaved Pave Masindi-Kigumba Unpaved Pave Kisoro-Bunagana Unpaved Pave Kanoni-Maddu Unpaved Pave Busia-Majjanji Unpaved Pave Masindi-Biso Unpaved Pave Kazo-Ibanda Unpaved Pave Nkonge-Lusalira Unpaved Pave Kiwenda-Zirobwe Unpaved Pave Munamba-Lwakhakha Unpaved Pave Kasana-Kikyusa-Zirobwe Unpaved Pave Busumbu-Magale Unpaved Pave Magodes-Busumbu Unpaved Pave /2 Kakumiro-Kagadi Unpaved Pave Bweyogerere-Mukono Paved Dual Masaka-Bukakata Unpaved Pave Maddu-Nabakazi River Unpaved Pave Namagumba-Budadiri Unpaved Pave Kibuye-Busega Paved Dual Soroti-Dokolo Unpaved Pave Akia-Aloi Unpaved Pave Aloi-Acan Pi Unpaved Pave /4 Gulu-Atiak Unpaved Pave UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-14

15 Nyakaita-Kazo Unpaved Pave Soroti-Brooks Cnr Unpaved Pave Musita-Mayuge Unpaved Pave Abim-Acan Pi Unpaved Pave Agwata-Dokolo Unpaved Pave Kamonkoli-Pallisa Unpaved Pave Kabalagala-Tank Hill Paved Dual Zana-Entebbe Paved Dual TOTAL 1, UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-15

16 Based on the economic evaluation results, the following implementation scenarios are shown: Executive Summary DESIRED: All projects with an EIRR of more than 8% are included in the list. The reason for adopting an 8% cut-off rate instead of the norm of 12% is to take into account possible benefits of non-motorized traffic and other exogenous benefits. This would require a very detailed level of analysis that could not be performed at a strategic level such as this. CONSTRAINED: This includes all projects that are economically viable with a B/C ratio 1, based on a 12% discount rate. MINIMUM: This includes projects that would be economically viable (B/C ratio 1 at a discount rate of 12%) when subjected to the sensitivity test. The road investment plan is presented in Table ES-6/ C-9. Table ES-6 (C-9): Road Investment Plan versus Allocation CATEGORY Average per Year Long Term Current Shortfall Needs Allocation COMMENT National Roads - Upgrading Only "New" economically viable projects. No Strategic or Committed Projects National Roads - Maintenance Includes Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Overlay, Regravelling and Routine Maintenan District Roads Urban Roads Outside GKMA Community Roads Capital and Maintenance Black Spot Elimination Over 5 Years Special Projects Over 3 Years TOTAL Note: Donors not included Implementation of the recommended DESIRED scenario will require an average annual expenditure of US$ 45 million over 15 years, compared to the current allocation of US$ 20, excluding donor funds, i.e. a shortfall of US$ 25 million per annum. Under this scenario, maintenance needs for national roads could be maintained at the current level of US$ 31 million per annum on average. District roads would require an average of US$ 33 per annum a shortfall of US$ 10.5 million per annum; urban roads (excluding GKMA) would require US$ 11 million per annum a shortfall of US$ 6 million; community roads would require US$ 4.6 million a shortfall of US$ 4.2. In addition, black spot elimination would require US$ 5 million over 5 years and the special project ferries, diverting traffic from part of the national road network would require US$ 3 million over three years. The following aspects pertaining to the funding of roads should be highlighted: The table provides an average annual expenditure of road development and maintenance for the 15-year analysis period. Actual budget allocations may UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-16

17 differ from year to year, reflecting the state of the economy and the economic growth cycles of specific years. It should however be ensured that shortfalls are recovered in subsequent years. Care should also be taken to see that an accumulated shortfall does not become unmanageable to the extent that it cannot be recovered in subsequent years. The current allocation would only fund about 50% of the upgrading and maintenance needs. This under-funding is largely caused by the fact that GoU is unwilling or unable to provide matching finance for donor contributions. The most acute level of under-funding in nominal terms is for development (upgrading) of the National Road Network. Even if the minimum level of upgrading is to be achieved, the average annual funding shortfall will still be US$ 11.6 million per year at current funding levels. For the recommended DESIRED scenario the shortfall will be US$ 25 million per annum. Current levels of maintenance funding represent only 80% of the current maintenance needs for the National Road Network. At first glance this level of under-funding may seem less severe than that of other categories. However, it should be taken into account that, firstly, under-funding of the National Road Network would increase the average annual maintenance undertaken. A maintenance backlog of US$ 90 million will have accumulated by the end of the 15-year planning horizon. Secondly, the amount allocated towards maintenance of the National Road Network has decreased over the past three years, which means that the general trend of the past few years also needs to be reversed. On the other hand, if the recommended DESIRED scenario is implemented maintenance requirements would fall to an annual average of US$ 31 million and there would be no shortfall. Community Access Roads, which at current allocation levels would receive less than 6% of their funding needs, would experience the most severe underfunding in relative terms. As is the case with national gravel roads, the upgrading of Community Access Roads could play an integral part in poverty eradication policies and programs. No funds are currently allocated towards the 5-year black spot elimination program or to the special project ferries diverting traffic from part of the National Road Network. 3.3 Rail Transport Present Status Uganda Railway System (URC) presently carries about 1 million tonnes annually on the mainline and Port Bell routes and earns revenues that are slightly below operating expenses. There is no contribution to capital or debt at the present level of operation. Commercialization of the entire operation in 1992 led to: Temporary suspension of service on the Western, Northern, and Busoga lines. Considerable downsizing of URC employment (by 1,200 jobs in 1992 and a further 200 in 1999). UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-17

18 Given the debt burden and continuing operating losses, there is little likelihood of achieving long term financial viability without sizeable government subsidies and/or major restructuring of the institution. A map showing the existing lines and the line in operation is given in Figure ES-11/ C-6 (overleaf) Key Recommendations Need The Government of Uganda should expedite joint concessioning between URC and KRC. All existing URC-owned lands and corridors should be preserved for future railway or other transportation purposes. Steps should be taken to restrict further encroachment of non-railway related activities on URC-owned lands and an implementation program for eliminating existing encroachments on URC property or establishing exclusions in certain circumstances should be undertaken as soon as possible. Joint Concessioning The Governments of Uganda and Kenya should take steps to include the Port Authority of Mombasa in some way as a participant within the joint concession agreement. Final agreements should not preclude extension to other partners, notably Tanzania Railway. An examination of the feasibility and costs of establishing and equipping a duty-free zone within the Port of Mombasa for Uganda-bound traffic should be undertaken. Fallback positions should be developed by URC in the event that all anticipated terms and conditions are not incorporated in the bid submissions. Operations URC should take advantage of funds made available by the EU ( 10 million) for track rehabilitation and by the KfW for freight car maintenance (DM 7.9 million) to continue with track improvements and acquire higher-powered locomotives that are consistent with the anticipated operations of the new concessionaire. The Government of Uganda should request the Government of Kenya to eliminate customs clearance requirements for international goods shipped in bond to/from Uganda, in accordance with international treaties. The Government of Uganda should ensure that customs facilities are open during all hours of railway operations. The requirement for customs clearance for export cargo should be eliminated altogether. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-18

19 Commuter Rail An assessment of the condition and practical feasibility and costs of rehabilitation of existing coaches to meet commuter service specifications should be undertaken. Existing demographic data should be summarized to show cumulative catchment populations within a radius of one and two kilometres from logical station sites as potential service is extended outward from the existing central railway station. Preliminary cost estimates should be prepared for the reintroduction of usable track structure in the western corridor, as well as for the construction of an allweather road for bus rapid transit, based on a thorough inspection of the existing right-of-way and structures. 3.4 Air Transport The National Master Plan The plan includes EIA and a municipal airfield for Kampala as two distinct categories in their own right (Refer to Figure ES-12/ C-7 for orientation; overleaf). The plan also takes into account the 60 licensed upcountry airfields, 19 of which are designated as belonging to the national airfield network. Two more airfields are designated as part of the network in accordance with the Government resolution (Ntungamo new airfield, and the existing Yumbe airfield). Eight additional district capitals will be earmarked for future development of optional domestic airfields should this be justified by demand. The national airfield network is therefore comprised of 29 airfields, 20 of which are existing and eight of them optional. The airport classification scheme chosen for this plan is basically that of the USA's Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), adjusted to suit the special case of Uganda. First Category - Air Carrier/Cargo (AC/C) airport for long-haul routes. Second Category - Transport/Corporate (T/C) airports intended to serve regional entry-exit point to the country with a future potential for upgrading to AC/C for short-haul routes. Third Category - General Utility (G/U) airfields to serve small passenger aircraft. The total Proposed Investment Plan for national air transport is US$ 152,415,000, to be implemented in three phases over the next 18 years (see Table ES-7/ C-10). The plan will meet the demand requirement of Uganda for the next 25 years in accordance with the growth forecasts. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-19

20 Table ES-7 (C-10): Total Investment Plan for National Airports, Sector Total Phase One Phase Two Phase Three Entebbe International 93,100,000 42,700,000 27,700,000 22,700,000 Airport Transport/Corporate 46,125,000 18,875,000 8,250,000 19,000,000 (T/C) General/Utility (G/U) 5,190,000 1,410,000 1,920,000 1,860,000 Kampala Metropolitan 8,000,000 5,000,000 3,000,000 0 Airport Total 152,415,000 67,985,000 40,870,000 43,560,000 Refer to Figure ES-13/ C-8 for a depiction of the Kampala municipal airfields. 3.5 Ports and Waterways The ports and waterways sector encompass two different elements, one being the ports on Lake Victoria and the other the ferries, which are in a way an extensions of the road network. Table ES-8/ M-5 (from IR3) outlines the capital investment programme for ports and landing sites (inserted overleaf). Uganda Railway Corporation (URC) currently operates three wagon ferries on Lake Victoria (the ferries were acquired in ), linking Port Bell to Kisumu (Kenya) and Mwanza (Tanzania). These are at present the only water transport operations provided by URC. Of the short-distance ferry services that are under the jurisdiction of the MoWHC, the following are in operation (for details see Appendix M-1, Interim Report No. 3): Bukakata-Luku on Lake Victoria. Wanseko-Panyimur on Lake Albert. Laropi-Umi on the Albert Nile. Masindi Port-Kungon on the Victoria Nile. Kiymdi-Buvuma on Lake Victoria. Nakiwogo-Kyavumbu on Lake Victoria. The Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) operates the Paraa Ferry on the Victoria Nile in the Murchison Falls National Park. There are also a number of short-distance informal ferry services around Uganda operated by private owners in canoes and small motor boats. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-20

21 Infrastructure, facilities and equipment, both land- and water-side, have been neglected and require substantial rehabilitation. These include navigational aids on Lake Victoria. 3.6 Ports and Shipping Recommendations A review of the overall status of the inland waterways / ports transport subsector and its ability to play the required part in Uganda s transport sector shows that the sub-sector would require substantial overhauling, both in managerial and operational terms, as follows: Non-revenue earning inland waterways road-bridge ferry services: in order to improve operational safety and travel conditions of passengers, the turnaround times should be shortened, increasing the number of daily crossings and the overall reliability of the services. Revenue-earning Lake Victoria commercial ports Port Bell and Jinja should be allowed to recover part of their former position of dominance in Uganda s transport sector. It is recommended that the sub-sector be privatized or commercialized, for which a number of scenarios are proposed. In all the scenarios, operations will be the responsibility of the private sector. The scenarios differ in terms of alternative splits of infrastructure rehabilitation expenditure between MoWHC / URC and private investors. The infrastructure would be leased to the private sector on terms appropriate to the burden of rehabilitation and leases would provide for varying fixed payments plus a percentage of operational revenue to MOWHC / URC Investments The investment proposals of the 1997 Inland Water Transport Study were reviewed by the Consultant and found to be somewhat overstated. It is recommended that an amount of US$ 13.5 million be invested in rehabilitation and upgrading. Of this, US$ 10.5 million is required in the period and US$ 3.0 in As the nature of privatization is unknown at this stage, the entire amount has been included in the Investment Plan: Phase 1: US$ 10.5 million Phase 2: US$ 3.5 million Phase 3: Total for 15 years: - US$ 13.5 million UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-21

22 3.7 Ferries Present Status A backlog of rehabilitation and refurbishment needs to be urgently addressed, including both the ferries themselves and landside facilities Recommendations All the proposed scenarios require MoWHC to provide safety equipment, rehabilitate infrastructure and equipment, and ensure that the responsibility for these services falls under a single unit. The scenarios differ in the extent to which user fees are levied Investments The investment proposals of the 1997 Inland Water Transport Study were found by the Consultant to be overstated. It is recommended that the following amounts be invested by MoWHC: Phase 1: US$ 42.5 million. Phase 2: US$ 26.0 million. Phase 3: US$ 11.0 million. Total for 15 years - US$ 79.5 million. Total investment in the ports and waterway sector is US$93.0 million. For further details see Table ES-8/ M-5, Interim Report No. 3 (page 20). 4. Greater Kampala Master Plan 4.1 Background Chapter D of the Final Report summarizes the main points presented in Interim Report No. 4 and was prepared with the knowledge that the interested reader could obtain further details and explanations from the interim report itself. Kampala had a population of about 1.2 million in The present population of the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) is 2.0 million, about 8% of the total population of Uganda. The size of the GKMA work force is about 700,000 and the GDP of GKMA is estimated to be about percent of that of the country. The Kampala Metropolitan Area is by far the largest single production centre of Uganda and the centre for industry, commerce and services. According to projections, the GKMA population will grow to about 3.6 million by 2018, i.e. within 14 years. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-22

23 The number of public transport trips (not including boda boda) is about 460,000 in the peak AM period or about 800,000 daily trips. This indicates that about 146 trips per person per year are being made in public transport. This is a low figure and indicates: (i) insufficient public transit capacity; (ii) in all likelihood, a large number of walking and bicycle trips; and (iii) a possibly low level of public transport accessibility. The rate of motorization (measured in vehicles per 1,000 population) of Kampala residents is not known with certainty, but even assuming that 50% of all cars, vans and pickups in Uganda operate within Kampala, the motorization rate would be about 20 vehicles per 1,000 population, a relatively low figure. Kampala Metropolitan Area is the richest region in the country but also an area where a large number of poor people reside, all of them seeking better incomes and living conditions. This depends, inter alia, on their ability to find work. The city is served mostly by roads, to a certain extent by a railway and to a much smaller extent by water transport. No domestic public airport exists within Kampala, although the international airport is located at the southwestern boundary of the Metropolitan Area, at Entebbe. Public transport is provided mostly by minibuses (known as taxis or matatus ) operating almost solely on the main radial urban roads without fixed stations or timetables, both suffering from road congestion and contributing to it. Except for part of the city centre and some low income settlements, the area is covered with low density housing. It is also characterized by bad roads, 4 poor public transport and high congestion, resulting in lengthy travel time. There is almost no central land-use/transport planning. More importantly, a very low budget allocated for road maintenance and development results in further deterioration. The GKMA is on the North Corridor of East Africa and all cargo and passenger trips crossing East Africa from Mombasa to countries west of the rift valley must at some point in time pass through Kampala's city centre. 4.2 Boundaries The Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area as indicated in the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the study is a geographical zone encompassed by a circle of some 20 km radius from Kampala city centre. Figure ES-14/ D-1 shows the GKMA as indicated by the TOR. The TOR further directs the Consultant to expand on his indicative GKMA boundary and define it with greater precision; additional details can be found in DFR A "bad" road is one in which the pavement is in poor condition, there is lack of traffic management devices, road signs and markings, traffic management is non-existent, and pedestrian walkways and NMV arrangements are to all intents and purposes absent. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-23

24 Figure ES-14 (D-1): GKMA Boundaries as per the Terms of Reference Executive Summary The boundary used follows those of parishes, as the parish is the primary statistical unit for which data are available. Islands and areas covered by water are excluded. The total area of GKMA as defined above is about 970 km 2. The maximum east-west distance is about 43 km, while the maximum north-south distance is about 55 km, so as to include Entebbe, which has the metropolitan area s international airport and a number of important government offices and many commuters to Kampala. It includes 171 parishes, 99 in Kampala District, nine in Mukono District and 63 in Wakiso District. Use of the term Metropolitan Area does not imply one unit of government for the whole area, as is clarified in other sections of this report. The GKMA is a capital city with surrounding smaller towns and outlying areas which have strongly-connected social and economic relationships. A recommendation for a different kind of organization is presented in Chapter E of the Final Report. The GKMA area, as defined by the Consultant for the Transport Master Plan, includes land territories administered by the following local government authorities: Kampala City Council. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-24

25 Entebbe Municipality. Mukono Town Council. Kira Town Council (except for Kimwanyi parish). Wakiso Town Council. Mukono District (part thereof). Wakiso District (part thereof). 4.3 GKMA Growth Trends, and The population growth trends for the GKMA in the period and its forecasted expansion are shown in Table ES-9/ D-2. Table ES-9- (D-2): GKMA Population: Growth and Forecasts GKMA Central Region Exc. GKMA Total Central Region National Population ,211,481 3,632,113 4,843,594 16,671,705 Population ,032,485 4,651,402 6,683,887 24,324,000 Growth rate % 2.1% 2.8% 3.3% Population base year ,119,000 4,750,000 6,870,000 25,119,000 Population ,591,000 5,256,692 7,847,317 29,036,000 Growth rate % 2.0% 2.7% 2.9% Population ,102,000 5,734,000 8,837,000 33,087,000 Growth rate % 1.8% 2.4% 2.6% Population ,648,000 6,175,000 9,824,000 37,219,000 Growth rate % 1.5% 2.1% 2.4% Care is taken to reconcile the growth forecasts of the metro area with those of the Central Region for the entire GKMA, especially with regard to the parts of Wakiso and Mukono that fall inside and outside the metro area. The Central Region s growth forecasts have themselves been reconciled with national forecasts (see the National Transport Master Plan). It is predicted that the rate of growth in GKMA will fall significantly over the planning period of the Transport Master Plan. Despite this, it will remain considerably higher than the national rate and the total GKMA population is expected to increase by about 470,000 (22%) in the coming five years, and by about 1,530,000 (72%) over the 15-year planning horizon. Over the past 11 years, the main population growth in absolute numbers has been in the outer ring of Kampala District and in a belt to the east, generally along Jinja Road. At the same time, the inner core of Kampala District has seen considerable depopulation as the demand for retail, office and general commercial space has displaced residential uses. UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-25

26 There has also been considerable urban sprawl, with many districts beyond Kampala District experiencing high population growth rates and increases in density. This has been partly due to land cost and availability but also due to the lack of comprehensive land use planning for GKMA. The 1994 Kampala Urban Structure Plan prepared by John van Nostrand Associates was a good study, which addressed the problems of urban sprawl, but its formal provisions were limited to Kampala District and the enforcement thereof has been problematic. 4.4 Existing Situation Using the travel time survey the regional travel time to Kampala centre during the peak period was calculated, as shown in Figure ES-15/ D-6 (overleaf). Table ES-10 / D-4 summarizes the reasons for travel. Table ES-10 (D-4): Distribution of Trips by Trip Purpose Purpose of Trip Percentage Work 44.0% Education 14.3% Business 12.9% Shopping and personal 11.2% Social 9.6% Home 6.6% Other 1.4% Total 100% Table ES-10/ D-4 shows that the percentage of home trips is low, which is due to the hours in which the survey was conducted. 4.5 Road Network Traits The principal GKMA road network that currently exists within this administrative classification system is presented in Figure ES-16/ D-16, which combines the urban and community access road classifications. Clearly evident within this depiction is the absence of continuity in the National Road designations which traverse the central GKMA core region of KCC, both eastto-west and north-to-south. Although not a formalized functional classification of the GKMA road network, Figure ES-17/ D-17 and the central enlargement in the following Figure ES-18/ D-18 illustrate in a simplified, two-tier fashion the fundamental nature of the GKMA road network. The regional (beyond metropolitan) road network linkages form a cross-shaped (cruciform) north-south and east-west array of UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-26

27 intersecting axes with the nexus located in the central Kampala area of the metropolitan core. These regional network linkages embody and establish the Northern Corridor in the east-west axis along the Jinja Road-Masaka Highway alignments, and the Bombo-Gayaza Road-Entebbe Road combination represents the north-south axis. In essence, with very few exceptions, all principal sub-regional or metropolitan network linkages are radial with respect to that central nexus, or serve as connecting branches to the regional network axes some distance from the central nexus. The conditions of the central urban roads are presented in Tables ES-11/ D-5 and ES-12/ D-6. Together with Figure ES-19/ D-19 (page ES-28), they present detailed comparisons of the district-wide assessment results for each of the internal administrative divisions. These comparative assessments are reinforced by anecdotal observations consistently expressed in public media outlets by many laypersons (residents and visitors) who travel within the Kampala region and appear to share the opinion that road conditions are generally and unacceptably poor. Table ES-11 Table D-5: Condition of Paved Roads in Kampala District Divisions Division Good Fair Poor Very poor TOTAL Length in kilometres Central Kawempe Makindye Nakawa Rubaga TOTAL Proportion of totals Central 34.47% 29.57% 50.88% 46.26% 36.01% Kawempe 17.58% 10.88% 8.09% 9.12% 12.17% Makindye 24.02% 12.15% 12.85% 7.88% 15.18% Nakawa 13.83% 28.07% 18.11% 36.74% 23.41% Rubaga 10.09% 19.32% 10.06% 0.00% 13.24% TOTAL % % % % % UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-27

28 Table D-6: Condition of Unpaved Roads in Kampala District Divisions Division Good Fair Poor Very poor TOTAL Length in kilometres Central Kawempe Makindye Nakawa Rubaga TOTAL Proportion of totals Central 3.22% 4.92% 0.84% 1.05% 2.68% Kawempe 10.46% 14.23% 8.53% 57.36% 17.09% Makindye 26.89% 32.86% 19.89% 14.45% 24.94% Nakawa 33.06% 26.11% 39.90% 6.47% 29.66% Rubaga 26.37% 21.88% 30.84% 20.68% 25.63% TOTAL % % % % % Figure ES-19 (D-19) UG/3333-R04.232/Exec Summary 01 February 2008 ES-28