ECONOMIC BACKGROUND FOR PAY CLAIMS. Introduction

Transcription

1 ECONOMIC BACKGROUND FOR PAY CLAIMS Introduction This document seeks to provide an outline of the latest developments in the economy which are most directly linked to pay claims. A model pay claim, available here, offers a stripped down version of this information, which may be of most value to branches representing staff working in private companies and community / voluntary organisations, who are not covered by the major national bargaining bodies in local government, the NHS and education. However, this document offers greater detail that can be utilised selectively in constructing all types of local and national pay claims. The document outlines: Latest headline figures relevant to pay claims; Changes in the cost of living facing workers, which pay claims need to keep pace with if the buying power of wages are not to fall; Pay settlement and average earnings growth figures, which can act as a benchmark for pay claims; The context for pay claims in terms of the labour market, welfare cuts affecting workers, the National Minimum Wage, the Living Wage and comparisons with the earnings of high income groups Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 1

2 % increase % increase % increase % increase Latest headline figures Average pay settlements Inflation rates Whole economy Private Public Community / voluntary 1 0 RPI CPI Average weekly earnings Forecast rates for Whole economy Private sector Public sector Retail Prices Index Average earnings Gross domestic product Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 2

3 Sep 11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 % change over 12 months Inflation as benchmark for pay claims Historical inflation rates The most widely reported measure of inflation in the UK is the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). However, the most accurate indicator of changes in the cost of living facing workers is the Retail Prices Index (RPI) [for the reasons why RPI is most relevant, see note below]. Over 2010 and 2011, RPI inflation centred on the 5% mark, before a decline saw the rate cluster around 3% during most of the three years between 2012 and Inflation then went into a further slide, with CPI running at around zero and RPI around 1% over most of However, inflation began to rise again over 2016 and escalated sharply throughout 2017, taking the December 2017 figures to 4.1% for RPI and 3% for CPI. Inflation rates CPI RPI Year / Month Source: Office for National Statistics, UK Consumer Price Inflation: December 2017, published January 2018 Between the start of 2010 and the end of 2017, the cost of living, as measured by the Retail Prices Index, has risen by a total of 27.6%. Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 3

4 Impact on real wages The annual changes for full years since 2010 have been as below. The annual pay rises at an organisation can be set against these annual inflation rates to show the impact on the Year Annual RPI % value of wages and examples of actual salaries can be used to show the impact in cash terms (if you need assistance in carrying out these calculations, contact Bargaining Support on bsg@unison.co.uk ). Across the economy, the most recent data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings suggests that the real value of average UK pay packets has fallen by 13% since 2010, with employees losing over 3,000 a year from the value of their pay packet. The average worker would have accumulated over 24,434 more had their wage kept pace with inflation. For the public sector worker who has not benefited from any incremental progression in their pay, the decline has been even sharper. Between 2010 and 2017, the public sector worker on the median wage saw a 17% cut in the real value of their earnings, leaving their 2017 wage 6,109 down on the value of their earnings at the start of 2010 and the accumulated loss from their wage failing to keep pace with inflation each year stood at over 32,000. Main factors affecting inflation The changes in the price of components of the Retail Prices Index over the year to December 2017 are shown in the table below. Item Average % increase to December 2017 Consumer durables 6.8 Personal expenditure 6.2 Travel and leisure 5.2 Alcohol and tobacco 4.5 Food and catering 3.7 Housing and household expenditure 3.2 All goods 4.5 All services 3.9 All items 4.1 Source: Office for National Statistics, Consumer Price Inflation Reference Tables, December 2017 Within these figures, some costs are rising significantly faster, such as bus fares at 10.7%, electricity bills at 11.4% and petrol at 5.1%. The price of housing also remains one of the biggest issues facing employees and their families. Across the UK, house prices rose by 5.1% in the year to November 2017, taking the average house price to 226, However, the picture varied across the nations of the UK, 1 Office for National Statistics, UK House Price Index Summary: November 2017, published January 2018 LSL Property Services puts average house prices in England and Wales at 300,846. The stark difference is partly because the figures do not include Scotland and Northern Ireland, but principally because the ONS uses a different statistical method in the calculation. Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 4

5 with England experiencing the biggest increase at 5.3%, followed by Northern Ireland at 6%, Wales at 4.5% and Scotland at 3.6% (to see price changes in English regions, click here, or for a borough / county breakdown click here for England / Wales and here for Scotland). Latest estimates of the ratio between average house prices and average earnings stands at 7.7 in England (12.9 in London), 5.7 in Wales 2, 5.2 in Scotland 3 and 5.0 in Northern Ireland 4. Private rental prices grew less rapidly, but nonetheless rose 1.2% in the year to December 2017 across Great Britain (1.3% in England 1.7% in Wales and 0.4% in Scotland) 5 and sharply higher at 5.3% in Northern Ireland 6. The average monthly rent for new tenancies in the UK now stands at (for a regional breakdown of rents click here ). Though not specifically assessed by CPI or RPI figures, childcare costs represent a key area of expenditure for many staff (UNISON surveys have consistently found that around a third of staff have child caring responsibilities).therefore, it is also worth noting that the annual Family & Childcare Trust survey 8 for 2017 found that the annual cost of a part-time nursery place for a child under two has hit 6,061 per year and the annual cost for a full-time place is 11,594. Current inflation rates can mask longer term changes in the cost of living that have taken place since The examples below show major increases in core costs that have surpassed average prices increases over the period. Item % price rise Item % price rise Item % price rise House prices 35% Bus and coach fares 44% Electricity 36% Rail fares 27% Gas 23% 2 Office for National Statistics, Housing affordability in England and Wales, March Emoov Office for National Statistics, ASHE average earnings 2016 calculated against UK House Price Index Summary for Northern Ireland 5 Office for National Statistics, Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, December Ulster University, Performance of the Private Rental Market in Northern Ireland Jan Jun HomeLet Rental Index, December Family & Childcare Trust, Childcare Survey 2017 Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 5

6 % increase % increase Forecast inflation rates The Treasury average of independent forecasts that RPI inflation will average 3.5% over It will then remain in excess of 3% over three consecutive years to 2021, following the pattern shown in the graph below. These annual rates show the rate at which pay rises would be needed for wages just to maintain their current value. Forecast annual increase in cost of living RPI CPI Source: HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK Economy, November 2017 If these rates turn out to be correct, the cost of living employees face will have grown by 13.5% between 2018 and 2021, following the pattern set out in the graph below Forecast cumulative increase in cost of living Regulated rail fares for 2018 rose by an average of 3.6% because they are linked to the previous year s July RPI figure. Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 6

7 Inflation for staff on low pay In 2014, the Institute of Fiscal Studies published a study which found that, between 2008 and 2013, the lowest income fifth of households faced average annual inflation that was 1% higher than the highest income fifth. 10 This conclusion was bolstered later in the same year, when the Office for National Statistics found that, among the lowest-spending households, average annual inflation ran 1% higher than the highest-spending households between 2003 and The cumulative result was that the prices of products purchased by the lowest-spending households grew by 45.5%, compared with just 31.2% for the highest-spending households. Reason for comparing wages to RPI UNISON believes that the Retail Prices Index (RPI) remains the most accurate measure of inflation faced by employees. The most widely quoted figure for inflation in the media is the Consumer Prices Index, However, UNISON believes that CPI consistently understates the real level of inflation for the following reasons: CPI fails to adequately measure one of the main costs facing most households in the UK housing. Almost two-thirds of housing in the UK is owner occupied, yet CPI almost entirely excludes the housing costs of people with a mortgage; CPI is less targeted on the experiences of the working population than RPI, since CPI covers non working groups excluded by RPI most notably pensioner households where 75% of income is derived from state pensions and benefits, the top 4% of households by income and tourists; CPI is calculated using a flawed statistical technique that consistently underestimates the actual cost of living rises faced by employees. The statistical arguments are set out exhaustively in the report Consumer Prices in the UK by former Treasury economic adviser Dr Mark Courtney, which is summarised here and covered in full here The Royal Statistical Society has consistently stated that CPI was never intended as a measure of changes in costs facing households. Rather, it was designed in the 1990s for macroeconomic purposes and its purpose is to act as the principal inflation indicator for the Bank of England in its interest-setting rate role. The society sums up its position as follows: Why should the typical household accept an inflation index that: - fails to take account of, or does not track directly, one of their main expenditure items: mortgage payments and other costs of house purchase and renovation; gives more weight to the expenditure patterns of wealthier households than of other households; fails to take account of interest on loans for a wide variety of purposes, ranging from student loans to loans for car purchase; 10 Institute of Fiscal Studies, IFS Green Budget Office for National Statistics, Variation in the inflation experience of UK households: , December 2014 Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 7

8 includes the expenditure of foreign tourists in the UK but not their own expenditure outside the UK; fails to include council tax. Following recommendations made by the National Statistician in November last year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has now adopted the inflation measure CPIH as its most comprehensive measure of inflation. However, the National Statistician also seemed to acknowledge that both CPI and CPIH fail to measure the real costs facing workers as the ONS was also instructed to develop a measure that addressed the Royal Statistical Society s concerns outlined above (this measure is not expected to be ready until later this year). Though CPIH represents an improvement on CPI in attempting to incorporate housing costs, its measure of housing costs is based on treating all households as if they rented their accommodation. However, rents can follow sharply different trends to house prices, making this a dubious assumption. Furthermore, the other more significant flaws in CPI outlined above remain a feature of CPIH. CPI is the figure quoted almost uniformly across the media, but RPI remains by far the most common reference point for pay negotiations. Incomes Data Research found in its 2016 Reward Intentions Survey that 75% of employers regard RPI as the most relevant to making decisions on the level of pay award, compared to 53% for CPI, 5% for RPIJ and 3% for CPIH. Pay settlements and average earnings as benchmark for pay claims Pay settlements Pay settlements across the economy stand at 2.3%, which is well below the long-run median of between 3% and 3.5% that prevailed for over two decades until the 2008 economic crisis. Pay settlements in the private sector stand at 2.4%, which is more than double the rate in the public sector. Private sector settlements have been running far in advance of the public sector since The table to the right shows average settlements for further sectors where UNISON represents members or sectors that compete for similar types of worker as public services. Therefore, employers falling below relevant rates can expect damage to their ability to recruit and retain high quality staff. [To reference the latest pay settlements for UNISON s largest bargaining groups, see appendix one at the end of this document, or to seek more detailed figures Sector Average pay settlements Across economy 2.3% Private sector 2.4% Public sector 1.1% Not for profit 1.8% Energy & gas 2.7% Water & waste management 2.0% Retail & wholesale 2.4% Information & communication 1.7% Admin & support services 2.2% Source: Labour Research Department, settlements year to January 2018 Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 8

9 on pay settlements within a particular sector, contact Bargaining Support on bsg@unison.co.uk] The contrast between average pay settlements across sectors since 2010 is shown by the table below. The dangers of falling behind market rates can be demonstrated to employers as part of pay claims by contrasting the pay awards in an organisation against the relevant private or not-for-profit column. Year Private Public Not for profit The Bank of England forecasts that pay settlements in 2018 will cluster between 2.5% and 3.5% 12. In Scotland, the draft budget has set expenditure at a level to allow 3% pay rises for all earning less than 30,000 and 2% for those earning more (subject to a cap of 1,600 for anyone on over 80,000) Average earnings The graph below shows trends in average earnings growth over the last two years, which mirror pay settlements in showing the competitiveness of public sector wages in decline. Since April 2013, private sector earnings growth has been running ahead of the public sector every month except two. In 2014, the private sector rate accelerated sharply while the public sector rate flattened out. Though the gap narrowed going into 2016, a sharp divide remains, with the rate across the economy standing at 2.5% and private sector growth at 2.6%, while average public sector wages rose by 1.9% in November Bank Of England, Agents Summary Of Business Conditions, November 2017 Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 9

10 % annual growth % change of 3 month average on previous year Average earnings growth Whole Economy Private sector Public sector Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 Apr 16 Jun 16 Aug 16 Oct 16 Dec 16 Feb 17 Apr 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Month Source: Office for National Statistics, Labour Market Statistics, January 2018 Forecasts of average earnings predict that growth will average 2.3% between 2017 and 2019, before escalating every year to reach 3.1% by 2022, following the pattern shown below 13. These predicted rates can again be used to show the pay increases needed for an employer to avoid slipping behind the going rate and suffering damage to recruitment and retention Forecast average earnings growth Office for Budgetary Responsibility, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, November 2017 Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 10

11 Note on comparisons between public and private sector Though the campaign by the government and much of the media to paint public sector workers as overpaid relative to private sector workers is not currently running at the pitch it was when the public sector pay cap was introduced, average earnings have often be used as the basis for making this false assertion. The claim is usually based on a crude comparison of average pay that doesn t take account of the different type of jobs in the public and private sector. The latest study by the Office for National Statistics that ensured the comparison was conducted on a like-for-like basis, taking into account region, occupation, gender and job tenure, found that the average public sector worker was paid 1% less than a private sector worker in And if organisational size is taken as a factor in the comparison, the gap grows to 5.5% (the graph below shows how the differential calculated on this basis has favoured the private sector since 2010). Before public sector average earnings growth dropped well below the private sector rate in 2013, average earnings growth rates were also often used as a basis to argue that the public sector continues to see improvements in pay that are not matched by the private sector and particularly as a basis for attacking pay progression. The flaw in these arguments is that the use of average earnings growth for comparisons does not simply reflect changes due to pay settlements and pay progression. Changes in the average are affected by a multitude of factors that affect the composition of the public and private workforce. Any changes that swell the lower paid end of the workforce and/or reduce the proportion of higher paid employees, such as differences between the sectors in recruiting staff on part time or zero hours contracts, or redundancies that hit the most recent recruits hardest, will act as a downward pressure on the average. The government s drive toward greater outsourcing in itself tends to lower private sector average earnings growth and raise public sector growth because of the marked tendency for outsourcing to focus on lower paid sections of the workforce. Therefore, average earnings growth does not offer any kind of sound basis for judging actual changes in the pay packet of a worker in the public or private sector. Pay settlement data forms a much sounder basis for comparison as it eradicates the differences in workforce composition that affects average earnings growth comparisons. 14 ONS, Analysis of factors affecting earnings using ASHE 2016, October 2016 Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 11

12 The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) provides detailed data that can form useful comparators for changes in average earnings experienced by UNISON members. The table below shows the change in median gross annual pay for full-time staff within the main job categories listed. Job Type Annual % change 2016/17 All employees 2.0 Managers, directors and senior officials 1.7 Professional occupations 1.0 Science, research, engineering and technology professionals 2.1 Health professionals 0.4 Teaching and educational professionals 0.2 Business, media and public service professionals 2.3 Associate professional and technical occupations 2.4 Science, engineering and technology associate professionals 1.4 Health and social care associate professionals 0.7 Protective service occupations 3.6 Culture, media and sports occupations 2.0 Business and public service associate professionals 2.2 Administrative and secretarial occupations 1.8 Administrative occupations 1.9 Secretarial and related occupations 1.7 Skilled trades occupations 1.6 Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades 1.1 Skilled construction and building trades 1.9 Caring, leisure and other service occupations 2.3 Caring personal service occupations 2.1 Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations 3.0 Sales and customer service occupations 3.7 Sales occupations 3.5 Customer service occupations 3.6 A listing of earnings growth for more specific jobs within these categories can be found on the Office for National Statistics website by clicking here A breakdown of earnings growth is available by region and local authority Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 12

13 Wider context for pay claims Labour market The general unemployment rate has been in decline from a peak of 8.5% in 2011 to 4.3% over the three months to November 2017, bringing the rate to a 42-year low. Over the same period, the number of unemployed people per vacancy has fallen from 5.8 to 1.8. Consequently, labour turnover rates are up to 19.4% across the economy 15 and just under half of employers are reporting that they are under significant pressure to raise wages for high and middle skilled roles 16 [For more detailed figures on sector turnover rates, contact Bargaining Support on bsg@unison.co.uk]. However, unemployment rates are forecast to rise to 4.5% in as growth slows to 1.5%. National Minimum Wage The legally enforceable National Minimum Wage sets the floor for any pay scale. The current minimum hourly rates and those scheduled to come into force from April 2018 are set out below. Category of staff Rate from April 2017 Rate from April 2018 Aged 25 and over Aged Aged Aged Apprentices The introduction of these rates may have a knock-on effect for wages further up the pay scale in order to maintain differentials reflecting job evaluation ranking of roles. The Office for Budgetary Responsibility s forecast for the top two rates until 2022 is set out below: Category of staff Aged 25 and over Aged These forecasts are based on expected changes in average earnings and movement toward the government target for rates to reach 60% of the average earnings of staff aged 25 or over by However, they are just estimates and no changes come into force until new rates are announced by the government. 15 XpertHR, Labour turnover rates CIPD, Labour Market Outlook, Autumn HM Treasury, Forecasts for the UK Economy, January 2018 Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 13

14 Living Wage The Living Wage has become a standard benchmark for the minimum needed for low-paid staff to have a basic but acceptable standard of living. The rates, announced annually by the Living Wage Foundation, are currently 8.75 an hour outside London and an hour in London. Studies supported by Barclays Bank have shown that Living Wage employers report an increase in productivity, a reduction in staff turnover / absenteeism rates and improvements in their public reputation. Consequently, there are now over 3,500 employers accredited as Living Wage employers by the Living Wage Foundation, including some of the largest private companies in the UK, such as Barclays, HSBC, IKEA and Lidl. Across the public sector, the Scotland government has established the Living Wage within all its public sector organisations, minimum rates for NHS and Further Education College staff in Wales have been raised to the Living Wage and all UK universities have established the Living Wage rate (for staff on a 35-hour week) in the most recent pay settlements. Support staff in more than 12,000 schools across the UK are also set to be paid the Living Wage as a result of national agreements. Furthermore, even where national agreements have not achieved a Living Wage settlement, a major proportion of individual councils, NHS trusts, schools and academies have taken up the Living Wage on their own initiative. A UNISON Freedom of Information survey covering local government, the NHS, universities, further education colleges and police authorities that drew over 900 responses found that 51% of employers across these sectors already pay at least the Living Wage to their lowest paid staff. Impact of tax and benefit changes Household income for people on low incomes consists of pay and in-work support provided by the government and so needs to be seen in the context of reductions in the system of inwork support that is provided through tax credits and housing benefit. The 2015 budget introduced a four year benefit freeze from April 2016, resulting in a halt in any uprating of most working age benefits until 2020 (local housing allowances are one exception to this rule). The Resolution Foundation has calculated that the impact of changes to the benefit system following the 2017 budget will be a 455 drop in the annual income of a single parent in work with one child to look after and a 630 drop for a two parent family composed of a single earner and two children Resolution Foundation, Freshly Squeezed, November 2017 Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 14

15 In contrast, corporation tax is set to continue its dramatic reduction, which has seen tax paid on profits by private companies decline from 28% in 2010 to 19% by April 2017 and further cuts are set to take the rate down to 17% by Corporation tax is only applicable to firms making in excess of 300,000 profit in a year and a discount is applied to profits between 300,000 and 1.5m. Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 15

16 Growth rate Comparisons of pay cap against wider economy The graphs below put the public sector pay cap in the context of developments across the wider economy. While the average value of total public sector pay rises between 2010 and 2016 has been 4.4%, the pay of chief executives for the UK s largest companies has grown by over 9%, the value of the economy has increased by over 12%, the cost of living has risen by over 22%, company profits have jumped by 26% and total dividends paid to shareholders have grown by 57%. 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% How does public sector pay compare over the last six years Pay rise since 2010* Top bosses' pay ** Value of economy *** Cost of living**** Company profits ***** Dividends to shareholders****** Sources: * Based on median public sector pay rise of 0.4% in 2010 (Incomes Data Services), followed by pay freezes in 2011 and 2012, then 1% pay cap in 2013,2014, 2015 and 2016 ** Based on growth in average FTSE 100 chief executive pay between 2010 and 2016 from CIPD / High Pay Centre, Executive Pay, August 2017 *** Based on growth in gross domestic product between 2010 and 2016 from Office for National Statistics, Second Estimate of GDP, Quarter Q4 (Oct to Dec) 2016 **** Based on Retail Prices Index between January 2010 and December 2016, taken from Office for National Statistics, Consumer Price Inflation, January 2017 ***** Based on corporations' operating surpluses between 2010 and 2016 from Office for National Statistics, Second Estimate of GDP, Quarter Q4 (Oct to Dec) 2016 ****** Based on dividends paid between 2010 and 2016 from Capita UK Dividend Monitor, January 2017 Economic background for pay claims Last updated: January 2018 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 16

17 Appendix 1 - Most recent pay rises among some of UNISON s largest bargaining groups Bargaining Group Last settlement date Basic increase Variations on basic increase Local Government NJC 1 April % Rises ranging from 3.4% to 1.3% for SCPs 6-17 Local Government SJC 1 April % or 350, whichever is greater NHS - Agenda for Change Bottom points raised to Living Wage England 1 April % Scotland 1 April % Bottom point raised to Living Wage Wales 1 April % Bottom point raised to Living Wage Northern Ireland 1 April % Higher Education 1 August % Larger increases for lowest paid staff, reaching 2.4% for bottom point to achieve Living Wage (for staff on 35-hour week) Further Education England 1 August % or 250, whichever is greater Scotland 1 April Wales 1 August % Commitment to raise bottom point to Living Wage Sixth Form Colleges 1 September % Police Staff (England & Wales) 1 September % Police Staff (Scotland) 1 September % or 400, whichever is greater Bottom point raised to Living Wage Probation Staff (England & Wales) 1 September 2016 Non-consolidated payments, worth 1%, to staff at the top of their pay band (others solely received increments) Economic background for pay claims Last updated: October 2017 Contact: bsg@unison.co.uk 17