Asda Income Tracker. Report: October 2011 Released: November Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd

Transcription

1 Asda Income Tracker Report: October 2011 Released: November 2011 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t w

2 Contents Asda Income Tracker Introduction 02 Headlines 03 Asda Income Tracker model 04 Dashboard 05 Income Tracker trends 06 Cost of living 08 Labour market 10 Appendix 11 Asda Income Tracker tables 14 Methodology 15 Disclaimer 18

3 Introduction Asda Income Tracker With youth unemployment at an all-time high, there s no doubt that creating jobs has to be the main priority to get Britain back on track. In addition to job security, the cost of basics - fuel and utilities in particular - remain the top of our customers agenda. The fact is people still have less money to spend now than they did a year ago. That said, I welcome the fact that disposable income shows a slight improvement from last month. We know this will help ensure families can better afford the Christmas they deserve. Andy Clarke Asda President and CEO 2 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

4 Headlines Asda Income Tracker Headlines The average UK household had 164 a week of discretionary income in October 2011, 7.1 per cent less than a year before. During the three months to September 2011 average earnings (excluding bonuses) grew by only 1.7 per cent year on year, down 0.1 percentage points on the previous quarter. Annual growth on the consumer price index fell back to 5.0 per cent in October, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from September. Although utility price rises are keeping the inflation rate elevated, this latest movement of inflation is expected to be the start of a downward trend. Worsening employment conditions, alongside the persistently elevated rate of inflation, are continuing to erode household real incomes and family spending power. Although inflation is expected to fall back, with the Bank of England expecting the headline rate to reach below 2.0 per cent by the end of next year, weakness will remain in the labour market. As such, while the Income Tracker is likely to show smaller decreases over the coming months, UK households will remain under pressure for some time. Asda family spending power down 7.1 per cent year on year in October 13 a week less Charles Davis Managing Economist, Cebr 3 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

5 Constructing the Asda Income Tracker Total household income 734 per week - e.g.. national insurance contributions, income tax Taxes = Net income 599 per week e.g.. wages, investment income, pensions, social security, self employment earnings 135 per week i.e. take home pay Net income 599 per week - e.g.. food, clothing, housing costs, bills, transport, communication costs, health, children s schooling, house maintenance and repair Cost of living = Average family spending power 164 per week i.e. take home pay 435 per week eg. holidays, cinema, theatre, eating out, toys, sports, savings, jewellery, national lottery and other gambling payments, computer software and games Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding 4 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

6 Asda Income Tracker Dashboard: October Dashboard Indicator Earnings Growth* (September) Unemployment* (September) Net income Mortgage costs Food Petrol Utilities Essential item inflation Family spending power Annual percentage change 1.7% (excl. bonuses) 8.3% 2.6% 1.2% 5.0% 14.3% 9.1% 5.3% -7.1% Latest trend KEY IMPROVEMENT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETERIORATION * three months to month stated Please note that the dashboard should be read in conjunction with the main body of the report 5 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

7 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Asda Income Tracker shows signs of stabilising Trends The Asda Income Tracker was 13 lower in October 2011 than a year before, in a sign that real income erosions are slowing The Income Tracker is now 7.1 per cent lower than twelve months ago. Year-on-year change in Asda income tracker Gross incomes (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.6 percentage points over the year to October Annual growth in spending on essential items fell back this month, dropping to 5.3 per cent year on year in October from 5.6 per cent in the previous month. This is the first slowdown in annual growth since June. If the impact of bonus payments is included, family spending power dropped over the period by 11 a decline of 5.4 per cent Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

8 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Asda Income Tracker shows signs of stabilising Trends The Asda Income Tracker was 13 lower in October 2011 than a year before, in a sign that real income erosions are slowing Year-on-year change in Asda income tracker Annual consumer price inflation fell back in October 2011 to 5.0 per cent, down from 5.2 per cent the previous month. This is the first decrease in the headline rate since June. However, conditions in the UK labour market continue to deteriorate, with the number of unemployed workers at the highest level since Resulting low wage increases are keeping the squeeze on family incomes tight. Although inflation is expected to continue to fall back, easing pressure on household spending power, the weakness in the labour market is set to remain or even become worse. This means real incomes will struggle to rise for some time to come Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

9 Recreation & culture Health Clothing & footwear Restaurants & hotels Communication Food & non-alc. beverages Education Furniture & household goods Transport Alcohol & tobacco Housing & household services Electricity Gas Inflationary pressures look to have peaked Cost of living Annual CPI inflation decreased to 5.0 per cent in October, down from 5.2 per cent in September In a sign that inflationary pressures have started to ease, annual inflation on the consumer price index (CPI) fell back to 5.0 per cent in October from 5.2 the previous month. Inflation looks to have peaked due to underlying economic weakness, and remains well below those observed during the slump of the early 1990s. Price increases on the wider Retail Price Index (RPI) also fell in October, with inflation down to 5.4 per cent from 5.6 per cent in September. Falling inflation provides justification for the Bank of England s decision to keep interest rates on hold this month. The Bank now expects inflation to fall below its 2.0% target by the end of 2012 and indicates it may have to make further additions to its quantitative easing scheme. 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Inflation of selected goods, annual change to October Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

10 Recreation & culture Health Clothing & footwear Restaurants & hotels Communication Food & non-alc. beverages Education Furniture & household goods Transport Alcohol & tobacco Housing & household services Electricity Gas Growing heating and power costs keep inflation elevated Cost of living The main factors putting pressure on family spending power in October were: The rising price of utilities continues to be a key driver of the headline inflation rate, as gas prices rose 24.1 per cent over the year to October, while the cost of electricity grew by 14.9 per cent. As global oil prices remain stubbornly high, the cost of transport is another large contributor to the inflation rate, adding 1.2 percentage points to the overall 5.0 per cent seen in October. Petrol prices increased over the year to October by 14.3 per cent, according to the AA. Diesel prices grew over the same period by 15.1 per cent, remaining the second highest in Europe. Although food prices fell back in October from September as supermarkets introduced significant discounts. However, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices remain 5.0 per cent above those observed in October the previous year. 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Inflation of selected goods, annual change to October Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

11 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Unemployment rate edges up once again Labour market conditions in the UK continues to deteriorate The official ILO measure of unemployment for the three months to September 2011 highlighted a further worsening of conditions in the labour market, with the unemployment rate rising to 8.3 per cent. This is up 0.4 percentage points on the preceding quarter and is the highest rate since The number of younger would-be workers rose during July September to more than a million, increasing by 67,000 over the quarter to 1.02 million, although roughly a quarter of these are in full-time education and looking for part-time work. In line with rising unemployment, wage-bargaining power remains weak. Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) grew by just 1.7% over July- September. This is roughly a third of the headline rate of inflation. 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% UK unemployment rate (LHS), per cent and 3-month annual growth in regular pay (RHS), per cent Net income 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% ILO unemployment rate Earnings growth 10 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

12 Data and Methodology Appendix Please find attached the methodology and the tabulated date. Asda produces a monthly income tracker report with a more comprehensive report every quarter. For further information please contact: Joanne Newbould PR Manager joanne.newbould@asda.co.uk Tel Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

13 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Monthly Asda Income Tracker Figure 1: Asda income tracker and year on year change (excluding bonuses) Asda income tracker tables % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Asda income tracker (LHS) Asda income tracker annual change (RHS) 12 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

14 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Monthly Asda Income Tracker Figure 2: Comparison of year on year change in Asda income tracker including and excluding bonuses Asda income tracker tables Asda income tracker including bonuses Asda income tracker excluding bonuses 13 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

15 Monthly Asda Income Tracker Asda income tracker tables Table 1: Average UK household Income Tracker, per week, current prices, excluding bonuses Month Income tracker Month Income tracker Month Income tracker Month Income tracker Month Income tracker January January January January January February February February February February March March March March March April April April April April May May May May May June June June June June July July July July July August August August August August September September September September September October October October October October November November November November December December December December Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

16 Methodology Methodology We use official data to provide an up to date and accurate measure of spending power. From April 2010, the income tracker is based on updated official base data on family expenditure and income from the Office for National Statistics Family Spending 2009 survey; making it not directly comparable with previous versions but up to date as possible with the latest data. In the latest version of the income tracker, we have improved how we account for changes in unemployment using the latest official data on Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey unemployment. A full methodology is available on request. The Asda income tracker indicators are calculated from the following equations: Total household income minus taxes equals net income Net income minus basic spend equals Asda income tracker 15 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

17 Methodology Methodology These components are based on official statistics and Cebr calculations. Total household income for the United Kingdom is derived from the Family Spending Survey 2008 (released 2010). This is updated on a monthly basis using official statistics on average earnings, unemployment, social security payments, interest rates and pension income. Earnings data from the Office of National Statistics that is released in the month of the report refers to the previous month. We forecast earnings data for the month of the report. Taxes are subtracted from total household income to estimate the actual amount that can be spent on goods and services, i.e. net income. The average amount of tax paid for 2006 is calculated using the latest version of the Family Spending Survey. This is updated on a monthly basis using National Accounts and Public Financial Accounts. We forecast one month forward using our macroeconomic model for the United Kingdom. 16 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

18 Methodology Methodology These components are based on official statistics and Cebr calculations. Net income is calculated by deducting our tax estimate from our total household income estimate. Basic spend (cost of living) figures are subtracted from our net income figures to create our Asda income tracker indicator. Basic spend items are listed in the appendix. The Asda income tracker is the amount remaining after the average UK household has had taxes subtracted from income and bought their essential items, such as groceries, electricity, gas, transport costs and mortgage interest payments. The income tracker measures the amount left over to spend on leisure and recreation goods and services; these are listed in the appendix. 17 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011

19 Disclaimer Disclaimer This report was produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), an independent economics and business research consultancy established in 1993 providing forecasts and advice to City institutions, government departments, local authorities and numerous blue-chip companies throughout Europe. The main contributors to this report are economists Rob Harbron, Scott Corfe and Charles Davis. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this report, the authors and Cebr will not be liable for any loss or damages incurred through the use of this report. London, November Centre for Economics and Business Research 2011