National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Transcription

1 National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

2 Message from the Director-General The greatest policy issue facing Japan at the present time is responding to our country s low fertility rates and aging population. Having undergone a period of high economic growth following World War II, the average life span of the Japanese grew and our lives became affluent. On the other hand however, as the number of elderly people increased, expenditures for social security programs, such as pensions, medical and nursing care, increased markedly. Meanwhile, the youth population, who must shoulder new production, is continuing to decline. The issue of how Japan will sustain the high quality society which had been built up so far has now become a major challenge. The super-aged society that Japan is now facing is the first experienced in human history. However, this is not an occurrence unique to Japan, as numbers of Asian countries, and possibly the majority of countries worldwide, will encounter the same phenomenon in the near future. It is for this reason that many countries are now watching to see how Japan will tackle this problem. While the low fertility and aging population tend to be perceived pessimistically, one also often hears the optimistic argument that our country still has much potential vitality and if it is skillfully applied, we will easily be able to overcome our problems. However, it is perilous to create policy based on optimistic expectations. What is necessary is not to ignore the problems confronting us, or to become despondent, but to face the problems squarely, pursue possibilities based on evidences, and formulate achievable and effective policies. In order to accomplish this, it is necessary to collect accurate and detailed data concerning existing conditions and to perform highly accurate estimations based on scientific analyses. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, attached to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, was created in 1996 through the integration of the Institute of Population Problems, attached to the Ministry of Health and Welfare, and the Social Development Research Institute. Along with investigating population and household trends, the Institute carries out research concerning social security policies and systems in Japan and abroad. The population data we compile and publish is the basic material for determining our country s essential policies, including pensions and other social security measures. Therefore, it is our mission to respond to the high expectations held by various government actors, as well as many other parties concerned. The policy challenges that our country is facing now are complex and difficult. The situation of low fertility and population aging is different by municipality, and also by time period. In addition, people s lifestyles and ways of thinking are diverse. The issues arising from such a society do have diversity and include not only the level of low fertility and population aging, but also poverty, employment, gender inequality and care for the disabled. In order to respond attentively to the diversity of these problems and create a sustainable society which enables healthy and culturally rich lives for all people, it is essential to formulate policies based on detailed and accurate evidence. We commit to providing the basic information which contributes to policy formation, and will carry out advanced research regarding how social security should be in the future and convey such information to the public. The importance of these activities needs no reiteration, but it is a matter of course that such research is not something that can be achieved through our efforts alone. It can be met with the interest and support of many government agencies, as well as society at large. All our staff members are mindful of this mission and responsibility, and will work even harder than we have until now. Therefore, we sincerely ask for your understanding and warm support for our Institute s activities. April 217 Prof. Hisao Endo Director-General National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

3 Table of Contents Message from the Director-General...1 Table of Contents...2 History...3 Population Projection... 4 The Financial Statistics of Social Security in Japan Providing data for relevant government ministries and international organizations... 6 Annual Population and Social Security Surveys...7 The National Fertility Survey The National Survey on Migration... 8 The National Survey on Social Security and People s Life The National Survey on Family... 9 The National Survey on Household Changes Research Projects Aiming to construct a healthcare and nursing care delivery system for 225 and beyond Study on sustainable evaluation and reflection in planning for the effective use of funds to ensure comprehensive healthcare and nursing care ( ) [Project by MHLW Grant] 2. Investigating ways of rehabilitation that improve activity and participation levels Comprehensive study on effective rehabilitation and rehabilitation management that contributes to life enhancements of elderly requiring long-term care ( ) [Project by MHLW Grant] 3. Exploring the next generation projection system and its policy applications based on analysis of advanced population and household trends...12 Comprehensive study on population and household dynamics and population projections in an era of declining population ( ) [Project by MHLW Grant] 4. Comprehensive study of aging populations and migration in East Asian/ASEAN countries...13 ( ) [Project by MHLW Grant] Other Research Projects International Cooperation...14 Seminars...15 Publication, Database...16 Library Organization Advice and Evaluation by External Experts...18

4 History Institute of Population Problems Institute of Population Problems established Publication of the Journal of Population Problems started The first estimation of future population Recommendation of the establishment of a research institute by the Advisory Council on Social Security System Integrated with Research Institute of the Ministry of Health and Welfare to become Department of Population of the Ministry s Research Institute Attained independence once again to become the Institute of Population Problems Social Development Research Institute Social Development Research Institute established Publication of the Quarterly of Social Security Research started Publication of the Overseas Social Security News started Started collecting statistics on social security benefits (collected as social security financial statistics from 212) National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Integration of Institute of Population Problems and Social Development Research Institute th Anniversary of Institute of Population Problems 5th Anniversary of Social Development Research Institute 2th Anniversary of Institute of Population and Social Security Research Merged The Quarterly of Social Security Research and The Review of Comparative Social Security Research, and began publication of the Journal of Social Security Research Before World War II, the concern for overpopulation grew due to the food shortage and unemployment, and population problems drew wide public attention in view of securing human resources. Consequently, in August 1939, the Institute of Population Problems was established. It was the first national research institute in the world that focused on population issues. After World War II, a decline in fertility rates and the aging of the population became evident as the economy developed, and the importance of systems and policies to cope with these issues became apparent. Social security in Japan progressed steadily and the universal coverage of public pension and health insurance was achieved by the mid-196s. However, basic as well as comprehensive research systems to study social security had yet to be organized. In January 1965, the Social Development Research Institute was established under the recommendation of Advisory Council on Social Security System. Continuous trends of low fertility, aging, and slowdown in economic growth have brought the relationship between population and social security closer. As such, there arose a growing need to understand the interaction between the two fields. On the other hand, during this period, the reorganization of research institutions under the Ministry of Health and Welfare was requested in the context of government reform to better cope with the evolving situation of Japanese society. In December 1996, the Institute of Population and Social Security Research was created by integrating two institutes the Institute of Population Problems and the Social Development Research Institute. August 214 marked the 75th anniversary of the Institute of Population Problems, January 215 marked the 5th anniversary of the Social Development Research Institute, and December 216 marked the 2th anniversary of the Institute of Population and Social Security Research. 3

5 Population Projection In order to provide basic information for planning mid- to long-term national social security system and for other related policies, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research releases various projections regarding population and social security. They include Population Projections for Japan, Population Projections by Prefecture, Population Projections by Municipality, Household Projections for Japan, and Household Projections by Prefecture. Population Projection for Japan Population Projection for Japan is a projection of the overall size and the age-sex breakdown of the future population in Japan, used widely as an important reference by the national and local governments and in other various fields. This projection is based on information from the Census, vital statistics, as well as research developed from various national representative surveys on population and social security problems conducted as the Institute. Population Trends in Japan (Million) 14 Total Population million (1965) million (215) 88.8 million (265) million (188) million (19) 6.3% Aged Population 26.6% 5.56 million (2115) % 38.4% Productive-Aged Population 6.8% 4 2 Child Population 25.6% 12.5% 51.4% 1.2% Year Sources: Population Estimates by the former Statistics Bureau, Population Census of Japan, Population Estimates, by Statistics Bureau, Population Projections for Japan: (Medium Variant) Changes in Population Structure Male Female Population (1,) Male Female Population (1,) 265 Male Population (1,) Female Fertility low variant Fertility medium variant Fertility high variant Sources: 1965, 215: Population Census of Japan, 265: Population Projections for Japan: (Medium Variant) 12 4

6 Regional Population Projections Due to declining fertility rates and the ageing of the population, demand for regional population projections (by prefecture and by municipality) as the basis of various economic, social and welfare programs have been significantly increasing. According to our regional population projections, the pressure of population decline will grow constantly in all regions, although there are considerable regional variations. Regional Population Projection: Population increase of residents 65 years and older by prefecture from 21 to 24 (1,) Tokyo Kanagawa Prefecture Osaka Prefecture Aichi Prefecture Saitama Prefecture Chiba Prefecture Hokkaido Hyogo Prefecture Fukuoka Prefecture Shizuoka Prefecture Ibaraki Prefecture Hiroshima Prefecture Kyoto Prefecture Miyagi Prefecture Niigata Prefecture Nagano Prefecture Gifu Prefecture Tochigi Prefecture Gunma Prefecture Fukushima Prefecture Okayama Prefecture Mie Prefecture Kumamoto Prefecture Kagoshima Prefecture Shiga Prefecture Nara Prefecture Ehime Prefecture Okinawa Prefecture Nagasaki Prefecture Yamaguchi Prefecture Aomori Prefecture Iwate Prefecture Ishikawa Prefecture Oita Prefecture Miyazaki Prefecture Yamagata Prefecture Toyama Prefecture Akita Prefecture Kagawa Prefecture Wakayama Prefecture Yamanashi Prefecture Saga Prefecture Fukui Prefecture Tokushima Prefecture Kochi Prefecture Shimane Prefecture Tottori Prefecture Only includes total results for Fukushima Prefecture Percentage of individuals 65 years and older by municipality in 21, 225 and 24 (%) 24 (%) Sources: Census (October, 21), Regional Population Projections (March, 213)

7 The Financial Statistics of Social Security in Japan Providing data for relevant government ministries and international organizations Every year, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research releases The Financial Statistics of Social Security in Japan. The statistics estimate both total and categorical amounts of annual receipt and expenditure on social security schemes in Japan on the basis of two international standards; the ILO (International Labour Organization) standards and the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) standards. In 212, The Financial Statistics of Social Security in Japan was designated as under the scope of Fundamental Statistics by the Statistical Act. According to the time-series trend of social benefit by three categories, the benefits for pensions and medical care have been increasing year by year as a result of the ongoing phenomenon of population aging and the advancement of medical technology. Social benefit by category (Trillion Yen) Pensions 54.4 trillion yen (48.5%) Medical care 36.4 trillion yen (32.4%) Welfare & others 21.5 trillion yen (19.1%) (Fiscal Year) The international comparison shows that most social expenditure goes to the elderly in Japan. According to the comparative social expenditure per GDP by nine policy areas, social expenditure on the elderly such as pension or long-term care benefits is the second highest, while social expenditure on family such as family benefits is the second lowest among the six developed countries compared. Statistics have been broadly used as fundamental sources to monitor social security policies and their financing, and also as a significant index to conduct international comparisons of social security expenditures. International Comparison of Social Expenditure relative to GDP in FY213 (%) Other social policy areas 15 Housing Unemployment Active labor market programmes 1 Family Health 5 Incapacity-related benefits Survivors Old age Japan (FY214) Japan USA UK Germany Sweden France Sources: Social Expenditure: OECD Social Expenditure Database GDP: Japan is from the Cabinet Office, Goverment of Japan, Annual Report on National Accounts 216. Other nations are from OECD National Accounts 215. * Made by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research based on the materials above 6

8 Annual Population and Social Security Surveys National Fertility Survey in 215 National Survey on Migration in 216 National Survey on Social Security and People s Life in 217 National Survey on Family in 213 National Survey on Household Changes in 214 The National Fertility Survey Since 194, the National Fertility Survey has been conducted every 5 years to investigate the situation and issues of marriage, childbirth and child-rearing in Japan. The survey is carried out separately for both married couples and unmarried individuals, exploring policy-related issues from the perspective of social science. Japan continues to experience declining fertility rates, which leads to population decline and population aging as well as other changes in people s lives. In the coming years, these changes will have a major influence on Japanese society. One of the important themes of the survey is to understand the mechanisms of fertility change and its underlying causes. The results of the survey are used in various academic research initiatives and policy planning, such as setting fertility assumptions for Population Projections for Japan, evaluating the policy targets of the Basic Plan for Gender Equality (e.g. the proportion of continuous employment after the 1st birth, 55%, 21), and for many other official reports (e.g. Annual Health, Labour and Welfare Report, White Paper on Gender Equality, Declining Birthrate White Paper), in addition to governmental policy committee documents. The figure below-left shows the employment status of wives before and after giving birth to their first child. Between 21 and 214, the percentage of women employed both before and after birth was 38.3%, a large increase compared to previous years. Of note is the significant growth in the percentage of wives who used parental leave after their first child. Of wives who worked before giving birth, 53.1% continued their employment. The figure below-right shows the ideal, intended and desired number of children of both unmarried people and married couples. Overall, average numbers for both the ideal number and intended number of children for married couples, and the desired number of children for unmarried people has been declining since the 198s. Changes in employment status of wives before and after giving birth, by year of birth of first child Composition (%) 1 3.1% 3.4% % 37.3% 18.4% 5.7% % 37.7% 16.3% 3.8% 32.8% 39.3% 13.% 3.8% 28.4% 4.3% 12.2% 4.1% 24.% 42.9% 9.7% 19.4% 15.3% 8.1% 11.2% Year of birth of first child 4.2% 23.6% 33.9% 1.% 28.3% Not stated Not employed before pregnancy Resignation upon pregnancy Continuous employment (no parental leave) Continuous employment (parental leave) A B Employed before giving birth C Changes in the average ideal, intended and desired number of children, by survey th (1982) th (1987) th (1992) th (1997) th (22) th (25) th (21) Ideal number of children (married couple) Intended number of children (married couple) Desired number of children (unmarried women) Desired number of children (unmarried men) th (215) A: Continuous employment 38.3% B: Resignation upon pregnancy 46.9% C: Continuous employment 53.1% Notes: Married couples are those where the wife s age is under 5 years old, and unmarried people are between 18 to 34 years old. 7

9 Proportion of return migrant by prefecture of birth The National Survey on Migration The National Survey on Migration is conducted to observe trends in the lifetime geographic mobility of the people living in Japan, as well as prospects of future migration patterns. Started in 1976, the quinquennial survey provides detailed data on individual migration experience that cannot be obtained from other governmental statistics. The 8th National Survey on Migration, conducted in July 216, reveals the lifetime mobility of people residing in Japan, including foreigners, and resulted indicators are shown by each prefecture. Due to the population ageing, both past mobility and future prospect of migration are diminishing slowly. The most frequent reasons for migration are housing related reasons, workrelated reasons and change in marital status. 68.6% of people are living in the prefecture which they were born and 2.4% of people are return migrant. 17.3% of people considered that they might move within five years. The results of the survey are used in formulating relevant policies and regional population projections in Japan No survey km The National Survey on Social Security and People s Life Japanese society is undergoing population ageing and changes in household structures at an unprecedented speed. In order to maintain the long-term sustainability of our social security system, it is necessary to implement a series of reforms while also keeping in mind a delicate balance of self-help, mutual-help (by family members) and public help. The National Survey on Social Security and People s Life is conducted to understand the challenges people face regarding their living conditions, and how they cope with them by supporting each other through family members and within communities. (%) who responded that their living standard is Ratio Harsh or Very Harsh, by sex, age and work status of Conversation: by Household (hh) type Frequency (Persons aged 65 and above) Especially among men in their 3 s to 6 s who are not working, the ratio responding Harsh or Very Harsh is very high. Among elderly persons aged 65 and above, most have conversations with someone at least every day. However, among elderly men who live in single-person households, 16.7% have conversation less than once in two weeks. 8 1 Men (working) Women (not working) Women (single-person hh) 7 Women (couple-only hh) Men (couple-only hh) 8 Men (not working) 6 Men (single-person hh) 9 Women (working) Percentage of individuals Ratio responding harsh or very harsh Age Every day Once every 2-3 days Once every 4-7 days Less than once in 2 weeks 8

10 Reduced working hours Care leave system Change of work duties Understanding of coworkers Elderly nursing home Day service or day care Short stays Home visit care (home helper) Domestic chores service for meals, cleaning, etc. Understanding of parents and relatives Understanding of husband Local volunteers Reduce burden on use of facilities Economic support for in-home care Long-term care insurance system Other None The National Survey on Family Accompanied by low fertility rates and population aging, the functions of Japanese families have undergone significant transformation, in addition to such changes as the increase in dual income households and single-person households. The National Survey on Family attempts to capture the changes in family functions, such as the bearing and rearing of children, supporting and nursing elderly parents, and so on. The survey results are used as valuable materials for various political and administrative uses. Reason for continuing to work while providing nursing care* While various schemes regarding long-term care insurance assist in continuing employment, the understanding and cooperation of husbands is also necessary. 2. (%) *The number of replies for the first and second reasons are split between the total number of people who continue working while providing care. Source: The 5th National Survey on Family in Japan, The National Survey on Household Changes Households in Japan are undergoing significant changes. These changes not only include the expected decline in the number of total households, but also the increase in one-person households, couple-only households, and single parent households. The National Survey on Household Changes attempts to capture the detailed process of formation, expansion, compression and dissolution of households. Such data on household dynamics are difficult to find in other surveys, and the results are used not only in policy purposes but also in household projections. Distribution by family type and transition probability (%) 5 Years Ago Present Single-person Household Couple-only Household Household comprised of parent and child Other private households No. of households (5 years ago) (Actual) (%) Singleperson Household Coupleonly Household Household comprised of parent and child Other private households onvergence in distribution 1,933 ( 23.2) ,958 ( 23.5) ,511 ( 42.1) ( 11.2) Single-person and couple-only households are increasing. The distribution in convergence suggests that single-person households will continue to increase to nearly 4% when the transition probabilities are fixed over time. Total 8,335 (1.)

11 Research Projects 1. Aiming to construct a healthcare and nursing care delivery system for 225 and beyond Study on sustainable evaluation and reflection in planning for the effective use of funds to ensure comprehensive healthcare and nursing care ( ) [Project by MHLW Grant] Japan is faced with a super-aged society as the entire baby-boom generation will be over the age of 75 in 225. It is important to maintain an environment for each citizen where they can continue to live their final years with peace of mind in a familiar setting as much as possible even when healthcare and nursing care are required. In these circumstances, it is necessary to establish a system that provides seamless healthcare and nursing care from the user's perspective, and realize sustained care that supports the independence and dignity of each citizen into the future. To contribute to the above-mentioned measures of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare from a research perspective, this project researched 1) establishing a sustainable evaluation method necessary for the effective and efficient use of funds and the construction of indicators for evaluation, 2) clarifying the influencing factors of selection of fund projects by prefectures, and 3) clarifying the actual implementation cycle in prefectures, with respect to the funds (Regional funds for promoting healthcare and long-term care) based on Article 6 of the Act on Promotion of Comprehensive Securing of Medical Care and Nursing Care in Areas. Figure 1. Evaluation framework for comprehensive healthcare and nursing care (outline) V: Health status, level of independence, continuity of living at home= Overall outcome indicator IV-a: Combination of appropriate care and service IV-b: Determining factors of health other than medical factors Healthcare/nursing care cooperation III: Performance of care and service a: Quality b: Access E.g.) Improvement of care for dementia E.g.) Improvement of nursing care service, improvement of in-home medical care and home nursing care c: Healthcare/nursing care and financial resources E.g.) Efficiency of nursing care service Individual service outcome indicator II: Resources and activities for care and service a: Healthcare insurance labor b: Healthcare insurance activities Individual service output indicator E.g.) Hiring and training specialists E.g.) Preventive nursing care, creating health I: Demographic and economic background, healthcare costs and financial resources Source: Created by research team with references to OECD (215)* *Health at a Glance 215: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris. Source: Ishikawa Report Table 1. Sample evaluation indicators of configured fund projects (project classification 1) Type of project Description and example Output indicator Sample indicator Outcome indicator Number of beds lacking for each bed function (high acute phase, acute phase, recovery phase, chronic phase) prepared with the fund based on the regional healthcare concept [Regional healthcare concept, Hospital function report] Number of beds for each bed function (high acute phase, acute phase, recovery phase, chronic phase) [Bed function report] Notified number of beds of recovery phase rehabilitation ward hospitalization fee (1 to 3) [Regional Bureau of Health and Welfare] Notified number of beds of integrated community care ward hospitalization fee (1 to 2) or integrated community care inpatient healthcare management fee (1 to 2) [Regional Bureau of Health and Welfare] Number of calculations of recovery phase rehabilitation ward hospitalization fee (1-3) [NDB open data] 1 Bed function differentiation and project cooperation Preparation of recovery phase rehabilitation and community integrated care wards The number of subject medical institutions, wards or beds Number of calculations of integrated community care ward hospitalization fee (1-2) or inpatient healthcare management fee (1 to 2) [NDB open data] 2 Preparation of a regional healthcare network foundation using information and communication technology (ICT) Construction of a healthcare information network between medical institutions and nursing care facilities using ICT The number of medical institutions and nursing care facilities participating in the network Number of prepared zones in regional healthcare cooperation network Number of participating hospitals in regional medical cooperation network (number of hospitals that disclose information) Number of participating medical clinics in regional medical cooperation network (number of clinics that disclose information) Number of registered patients in regional medical cooperation network Number of municipalities that are building collaboration between healthcare treatment and long-term care insurance information using ICT Number of times test/image information provision calculations are calculated [NDB] Number of calculations of electronic diagnosis information evaluation fee [NDB] 1

12 2. Investigating ways of rehabilitation that improve activity and participation levels Comprehensive study on effective rehabilitation and rehabilitation management that contributes to life enhancements of elderly requiring long-term care ( ) [Project by MHLW Grant] An integrated community care system, providing healthcare, long-term care, preventive long-term care, housing, and livelihood support in an integrated manner, is being built for 225, so that the baby-boom generation that will be over 75 years old will able to continue living in familiar settings with ease even after they come to require advanced-level care While it is important to balance each element of body functions, activities, and participation for elderly with deteriorated livelihood functions to continue living in familiar settings, much of the currently provided rehabilitation leans toward the recovery of body functions. This research aims to identify rehabilitation methods that contribute to the improvement of activity and participation levels of the elderly, and to develop ways of management for these methods to work effectively. Figure 1. Image of rehabilitation for the elderly Living function Activity Participation Create a role and participate in society Support a place of belonging and create opportunities with a purpose in life and a role in the community Support the building of a role within the family Activity Work to improve IADL Encourage and coordinate environment for cleaning, laundry, cooking, going out, etc. Work to improve ADL Encourage and coordinate environment for eating, excretion, changing clothes, bathing, etc. The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) General Assembly in May 21, writes that three life function elements are needed for a person to live, which are 1) the "body functions" that are the movements of the body and mental state, 2) activities of daily living (ADL), such as eating, and general daily activities such as housework, vocational skills, and waking outdoors, and 3) participation in home and society as part of fulfilling a role. Source: MHLW Annual Health, Labour and Welfare Report 216 Body functions Function recovery training Training to learn how to sit, stand, walk, etc. Acute phase/recovery phase rehabilitation Living phase rehabilitation Figure 2. Change in the condition of users of rehabilitation Maintaining a sitting position Standing on both feet Walking Eating Excretion Removal of a coat Management of money Shopping Simple cooking Home (n=2,422) Non-home (n=23) Deterioration rate (%) Figure 3. Implementation of rehabilitation Joint movement range training Muscular strength improvement training Walking/movement training Course of bathing exercises Course of excretion exercises Course of eating exercises Course of 2. cooking exercises Course of laundry exercises.7 Home visit rehabilitation (n=3,989) 2.4 Facility visit rehabilitation (n=1,983) Shopping exercises Implementation rate (%) Among the elderly who use rehabilitation, of the group that continued living at home one year later (home group) and those living in a facility (non-home group), in comparing the change in condition over a year, the non-home group not only saw deterioration in body functions and structures compared to the home group, but also had a greater proportion of declining ADL/IADL functions. In examining the content of the rehabilitation performed, while a high percentage is aimed at restoring body functions such as walking and mobility training, the improvement of ADL (eating, excretion, bathing, etc.) and IADL (cooking, laundry, shopping, etc.), accounts for a low percentage of rehabilitation. 11

13 3. Exploring the next generation projection system and its policy applications based on analysis of advanced population and household trends Comprehensive study on population and household dynamics and population projections in an era of declining population ( ) [Project by MHLW Grant] Research was conducted with the aim of projecting the future demographics of Japan as its population enters a period of decline. Projections of the future population and households is used in the formulation of various policies, but as Japan s population enters a period of decline, changes in regions and households affect nationwide trends such as the declining birth rate and longevity, and develop with a synergistic effect, which requires deeper analysis of population and household trends reflecting recent research, a future projection model incorporating a new perspective that puts more emphasis on provided information on the future of regions/households and integrates the tendency of declining birth rates and longevity nationwide, and policy simulation using the future projection of demography and households. Specifically, the research focused on three areas: (1) Analysis of comprehensive population and household trends in the period of declining population by applying state-of-the-art technology, (2) Fundamental research on a nextgeneration future projection model with emphasis on regional and household projections, and (3) Research relating to policy simulations using future projections. Future projection method of population transition with the pool model (outline) Projected migrations P 1 P 2 P n Population Projected in-migration The pool model was used to project the future population by prefecture for the research on the next-generation future projection system. The research showed that it is possible to calculate a stable projection with no inconsistencies in population migration, that there is a possibility that results can be obtained close to where the net migration rate is reduced in a single region model, and that it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the impact of each assumption on the projection results including other regions. P 1 e 1 P 2 e 2 Pool d 1 Pool d 2 P n e n Number of migrations Pool Pool d n Total migrations (=total in-migrations) Number of in-migrations Effect of incorporation of foreigners on income substitution rate of the public pension (pattern 1) (%) Incorporation prevents a drastic drop in the basic pension level of the public pension Basic A B1 B2 Proportion Base A' B' As an application for policy simulation, a financial simulation was conducted on the impact of the incorporation of the foreign population on the public pension. The figure on the left shows the effect of the income substitution rate on the public pension when taking in foreign workers, and pattern 1 shows the case of accepting male low-wage workers. The horizontal axis shows the incorporation cases where A, B1, B2 are the integration for the public pension system, while A' and B' are the national pension for the basic case not to expand the integration of foreigners. As A shows the integration of foreign workers only, B is the accompaniment or calling of dependents or family. B1 and B2 are the wage levels of workers from the second generation onward where B1 is low wages and B2 are high wages. The level of decline in the basic pension level is reduced in applying the integration of foreigners to the national pension system. Thus, attention should be given to the fact that in discussing the integration of foreigners, in addition to the impact on long-term population trends, there is an effect on the problem of declining basic pension levels. 12

14 4. Comprehensive study of population aging and migration in Eastern Asian and ASEAN countries ( ) [Project by MHLW Grant] South Korea and Taiwan are suffering from significantly lower fertility than in Japan, while China and Singapore have low fertility rates as low as Japan. Japan currently has the most aging population in the world, but in the future South Korea and Taiwan will overtake Japan, while other Eastern Asian and ASEAN countries will certainly approach Japan. Such an acute fertility decline and the aging of the population are thought to activate domestic migration with rural areas depopulating and gathering in urban centers, and international migration incorporating foreign workers including healthcare and long-term care workers, international marriages and invited retirees. This research aims to grasp and analyze drastic fertility decline, population aging, and various migration in this region. Percentage of population aged 65 or older (%) Japan ROK Taiwan China Singapore Calculated based on United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 215 Revision Other Research Projects In-House Projects Comprehensive research on strengthening local governments through advanced case study analysis and lateral deployment (FY217-FY219) Comprehensive research aimed at realizing the "Plan for Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens" (FY217) Comprehensive research from a demographic viewpoint on the longevity revolution (FY217-FY219) Projects by MHLW Grant Comprehensive study on population aging and migration in East Asian/ASEAN countries (FY215-FY217) Research on the improvement of statistics to understand social insurance finances macroscopically (FY215-FY217) Analysis study on the poverty situation in Japan (FY216-FY218) Research on population analysis, future projections, and its application corresponding to new trends in declining birthrates and aging from an international and regional perspective (FY217-FY219) Survey of demographic dynamics on aggregation and analysis methods using composite cause of death information from death certificates (FY217) Projects by MEXT Grant Comprehensive study on trends in marriage, divorce, remarriage, and the transformation of Japanese society (FY213-FY217) Empirical research aimed at the sustainability of healthcare insurance supporting diverse people in a super-aged and shrinking society (FY215-FY217) Escaping from an unjust gender society: A comparative study of the division of gender roles in labor and birth in Japan, Germany and the Netherlands (FY215-FY218) The demography of sexual orientation and sexual recognition - Construction of a research base in Japan (FY216- FY22) The savings behavior of small-scale households: Prepatory savings and strategic legacy motives (FY216- FY218) Study on the building stage of an elderly care system in East Asia and the propagation of Japanese experience (FY216-FY218) Study of "Domesticated Social Nursing:" A comparison of Japan and Italy (FY216- FY218) Building a junior baby-boom generation retirement living expenses model - Research on the division of public and private roles of the pension system - (FY217- FY219) Construction of a panel survey focusing on the "new" migration process of newcomer immigrants in modern Japan (FY217-FY22) 13

15 International Cooperation Organizing the Foreign Scholar Lecture Series and International Workshops The Foreign Scholar Lecture Series and International Workshops are organized to invite internationally renowned researchers in the fields of population and social security. These seminars and workshops are held in the IPSS conference room and are open to the public. In FY215-FY216, special lectures were given on the subjects of population bonuses, population declines, population trends in North and South Korea, mathematical demographics, work and family balance, and longevity. International workshops with East Asian countries were also conducted. Promoting International Research Cooperation We are engaged in cooperative research based on a memorandum of understanding with the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA), the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), and the Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China, while we promote information exchanges and joint research with international organizations such as the OECD, World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank, UNICEF, the United Nations Population Fund (UNPF), along with universities and research institutes in their respective countries. We also participate in international scientific conferences on population and social security, and issue reports. Receiving Visitors from Overseas We receive delegations and study tour groups from around the world and outline the current situation of population and social security in Japan for them. In FY215-FY216, through the JENESYS Japanese government exchange program and others, we received visits from groups from around the world, and from global population development delegations from countries such as China, South Korea, Mongolia, Taiwan, USA, Australia, the UK, Denmark, and others. Collaborating through International Organizations on Population and Social Insurance Issues We are engaged in ongoing cooperation about issues on a global scale such as population problems and the building of an international social security system through the Commission on Population and Development held at the UN headquarters, and participation in various meetings held at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). We are also offering expertise and data on population and social security in Japan through short-term dispatches to OECD headquarters and participation in expert meeting held by the OECD. 14

16 Seminars The 21st IPSS Annual Seminar (December 1, 216) Visions for the Future Japanese Society and Social Security System - Social Security System for a Sustainable Society in the Era of Population Decline <Date> 13:3-16:3 on December 1, 216 <Venue> Hibiya Convention Hall <Keynote Speech> Ryuichi KANEKO Deputy Director-General, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research <Panelist Speech> Akiko OISHI Professor, Faculty of Law, Politics & Economics, Chiba University Naoko SOMA Associate Professor, International Social Sciences Section at the Graduate School of International Social Sciences, Yokohama National University Keiko KATAGIRI Associate Professor, the Graduate School of Human Development and Environment, Kobe University Yukimitsu NISHIMURA Senior Researcher, Department of Empirical Social Security Research, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research <Moderator> Akira MORITA Director-General, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (then) The 18th IPSS Annual Seminar (October 31, 213) New Trends in International Migration Towards a Japanese Model 15 The 19th IPSS Annual Seminar (October 31, 214) Women s Diversifying LifeCourse Patterns and Social Security Social Security System for a Sustainable Society in the Era of Population Decline The 2th IPSS Annual Seminar (December 15, 215) Challenging Issues over Regional Depopulation and Social Security in Japan

17 Publication, Database Periodicals The Quarterly of Social Security Research (SYAKAIHOSYO KENKYU) Publishes papers related to social development and welfare state themes, and papers on social security systems of other countries, with a focus on social security (published four times a year). Journal of Population Problems (JINKO MONDAI KENKYU) Focuses on papers and statistical materials on population, birth, death, population migrations, and households (published four times a year). Social Security Statistics (SYAKAIHOSYO TOKEI NENPO) An edited collection of a wide range of statistical materials on social security (published annually). Population Statistics (JINKO TOKEI SHIRYOSYU) A collection of selected important statistics with an aim to contribute to research on population trends and issues from population statistics (published annually). Reports, Research Series & Survey Series The results of research projects are published as a series and widely distributed. Integrated Community Care System (March 213) Theory and analysis of social security cost statistics (March 214) Population trends in Japan and the future of society (April 217) Detailed reports on the surveys and estimates are published and available to download on our website. Library There are many statistical publications, especially on demographics and social policy, in the collection. Opening hours: 1: to 12: 13: to 17:, Weekdays only Reference service: TEL: +81() FAX: +81() Loans: Loaning is possible upon presenting personal identification and registration Over 13, book and magazine titles are available for researchers as well as for the general public and government administrators. Interested parties can also access all information on our website through our library search at the following link: Valuable historical documents have also been compiled, and are available for public use. 16

18 Organization Director-General Deputy Director-General Coordination Officer for Policy Studies Research on specific policies, coordination of policy research and dissemination of research outcomes. General Affairs Division Personnel management; budget; support of research; publication of research Major work related to support of research: publication of journals and research reports; management of conference and other activities. Department of Research Planning and Coordination Overall planning and coordination of research on social security and population. Major projects: Collection of statistics on social security finances Department of International Research and Cooperation Research on population and social security in international perspectives; international cooperation of research. Major projects: National Survey on Migration, international comparative study on social security and population, research on global issues Department of Information Collection and Analysis Analysis of statistical information on social security and population; development and management of databases; bibliography of related studies. Major projects: statistical analysis of social security and population Collection of publication (library) Collecting and maintaining domestic and foreign publications (database) related to social security and population. Department of Theoretical Social Security Research Research on theory related to the function of social security, and relationships with socioeconomic structure. Major projects: Theoretical research on the function of social security, institutional models of social security, and economic models of social security Department of Empirical Social Security Research Empirical studies on social security such as medical care, long-term care, social welfare and pension. Major projects: Empirical research on functions, institutional models, economic models, medical care, long-term care, social welfare of social security and pension Department of Population Structure Research Research on the basic structure of population, migration and spatial distribution of population, household structure, projections of sub-national population and household. Major projects: migration; regional distribution of population; structure of the household and the family; projection of regional populations and household. Department of Population Dynamics Research Research on fertility and mortality; changes in the functions of the family. Major projects: estimation and projection of fertility, mortality and life expectancy at birth; survey of family functions, marriage, fertility; projections of national population. 17

19 Advice and Evaluation by External Experts Board of Councilors The Board of Councilors provides advice on the basic policies on the Institute s survey research activities and other important matters. (As of end of June, 217) Masami Iwata Masahiko Iwamura Senichi Obayashi Naoto Kunitomo Osamu Saito Takao Suzuki Eiji Tajika Noriko Tsuya Nobuko Nagase Masago Minami Honorary Professor, Japan Women s University <Vice-Chair> Professor, University of Tokyo Graduate School Professor, Teikyo University Research Professor, Meiji University <Chair> Honorary Professor, Hitotsubashi University Professor, J. F. Oberlin University Graduate School Research Professor, Seijo University Professor, Keio University Professor, Ochanomizu University Managing Director at The Yomiuri Shimbun Tokyo Headquarters and Chief Officer at the the Yomiuri Research Institute Research Evaluation Committee The Research Evaluation Committee provides evaluation on the Institute s overall operation, research issues, and the status of research conducted by researchers. (As of end of June, 217) Hisashi Inaba Takashi Inoue Toshihiro Ihori Masahiro Umezaki Machiko Osawa Hiroya Ogata Daiji Kawaguchi Yoshimi Kikuchi Yasuhiko Saito Sawako Shirahase Shogo Takegawa Yasuko Hayase Toshihiko Hara Professor, University of Tokyo Graduate School Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University Distinguished Professer, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies Professor, University of Tokyo Graduate School Professor, Japan Women s University <Deputy Chair> Project Professor, Policy Alternatives Research Institute Professor, University of Tokyo Graduate School Professor, Faculty of Law, Waseda University Professor, Nihon University University Research Center Professor, University of Tokyo Graduate School Professor, University of Tokyo Graduate School Honorary Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization <Chair> Professor, Sapporo City University 18

20 Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Annex of the National Ministry Agriculture, Forestry and Personnel Fisheries Authority To Kasumigaseki Ramp Annex of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Marunouchi Line, Kasumigaseki Station B2 Open-air Concert Hall Chiyoda Line, Kasumigaseki Station C4 Iino Bldg. Hibiya Parkfront Hibiya Library Hibiya Park Japan Press Center Hibiya Auditorium To the Diet Bldg. Hibiya Kokusai Bldg. Police Box Fukokuseimei Bldg. Hibiya City To Hibiya Imperial Hotel Mizuho Bank Toei Mita Line, Uchisaiwaicho Station A6 To Toranomon Atago-dori Ave. Sotobori-dori Ave. Hibiya-dori Ave. 6 F National Institute of Population and Social Security Research JR Shinbashi Station Toei Mita Line, Uchisaiwaicho Station (I 7) direct connection to Exit A6 Tokyo Metro Subway, Chiyoda Line, Kasumigaseki Station (C 8) 3 minute walk to Exit C4 Tokyo Metro Subway, Marunouchi Line, Kasumigaseki Station (M15) 5 minute walk to Exit B2 JR Line, Shinbashi Station Hibiya Exit, 7 minute walk National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Hibiya Kokusai Building 6th Floor, Uchisaiwaicho Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 1-11 Tel: +81-() Fax: +81-() ipss Research