Harvard Center for Population Phone: (+1) Harvard University

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1 Neha Bairoliya Contact Information Current Positions & Appointments Past Positions & Appointments Harvard Center for Population Phone: (+1) and Development Studies Harvard University Web: scholar.harvard.edu/nbairoliya 9 Bow Street Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Postdoctoral Research Associate: Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA (2015 present). Mentor: David Canning. Postdoctoral Fellow: Program on the Global Demography of Aging, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA (2015 present). Short-Term Visiting Scholar: Collaborative Research Center SFB 884, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany (2016). Research Assistant: School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Twin-Cities, USA (2011, 2013). Teaching Assistant: Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Twin-Cities, USA ( ). Summer Research Fellow: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, USA (2013). Education Ph.D. in Economics, 2015 University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA. Thesis: Essays in Labor and Health Economics. Advisor: José-Víctor Ríos-Rull. M.A. in Economics, 2012 University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA. B.A. (Honors) in Economics, 2008 Patna Women s College, Patna University, India. Research Interests Honors and Awards Research Fields: Macroeconomics, Labor and Demographic Economics. Research Topics: Population aging, public policy, health and inequality. Graduate Research Program Partnership Dissertation Fellowship, Summer University of Minnesota, Twin-Cities, USA. CSWEP Dissertation Fellowship, Summer 2013.(Link) Sponsored by the American Economic Association. Sandor Fellowship, University of Minnesota, Twin-Cities, USA. Birendra Kumar Sinha Gold Medal, Patna Women s College, Patna University, Patna, India (awarded for the best undergraduate performance in Economics).

2 Travel Grants Junior Researcher Support, Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, Barcelona, Spain. Travel grant from Collaborative Research Center SFB 884, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany. Journal Publications Published: N. Bairoliya, D. Canning, R. Miller and A. Saxena (2017): The Macroeconomic and Welfare Implications of Rural Health Insurance and Pension Reforms in China; [Forthcoming in Journal of the Economics of Ageing]. N. Bairoliya and G. Fink (2018): Infant Mortality Rates among Full Term Births in the United States : A National and State Level Assessment; [Forthcoming in PLOS Medicine]. Submitted/Under Review: N. Bairoliya (2017): Pension Plan Heterogeneity and Retirement Behavior; [Revise & Resubmit European Economic Review]. N. Bairoliya, P. Karaca-Mandic, J. McCullough and A. Petrin (2017): Consumer Learning and the Entry of Generic Pharmaceuticals; [NBER Working Paper #23662]. N. Bairoliya, R. Miller and A. Saxena (2017): The Macroeconomic Impact of Fertility Changes in an Aging Population. R. Miller, N. Bairoliya (2017): Health, Longevity, and Welfare Inequality of the Elderly. Working Papers/Work-in-Progress: N. Bairoliya, D. Canning and R. Miller (2017): The Welfare Effects of Mexico s Seguro Popular Health Insurance Reform; To be submitted. N. Bairoliya, R. Miller (2017): Medicaid Expansion and the Health Insurance Value of the Disability Program; In preparation. N. Bairoliya and B. Siflinger (2017): Elderly Mental Health and Medicaid Transition; In preparation. N. Bairoliya and G. Fink (2017): Effect of Expanded Medicaid Eligibility on Infant Health; In preparation. Conference Presentations Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, Barcelona, Spain (June, 2017). Midwest Macro Meetings, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, USA (May 2017). Annual Meeting of Population Association of America, Chicago, USA (April, 2017). Midwest Economics Associations Annual Meeting, Cincinnati, USA (March 2017). Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, Barcelona, Spain (June, 2016). Midwest Macro Meetings, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA (May 2016). Annual Meeting of Population Association of America, Washington, DC, USA (March, 2016).

3 The Joint Annual Health Econometrics Workshop and the Seventh Australasian Workshop on Econometrics and Health Economics, University of Hawaii, Manoa, USA (December 2015). 9 th Economics Graduate Student Conference, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, USA (October 2014). Workshops/ Invited Talks Teaching Experience Professional Activities Computer Skills Languages Third Annual Workshop on Formal Demography, University of California, Berkeley, USA (June, 2017). Friday Luncheon Seminar, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA (December 2016). Collaborative Research Center SFB 884, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany (October 2016). Quality and Responsiveness Lab Meetings, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA (September 2016) RAND Summer Institute, RAND Corporation headquarters, Santa Monica, USA (July 2016). Workshop on the Macroeconomics of Population Aging, Harvard Canter for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA (September 2015). Brown Bag Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, USA (Summer 2013). Economic Development, ( ). Instructor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Twin-Cities, USA. Intermediate Macroeconomics (2014). Instructor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Twin-Cities, USA. Principles of Microeconomics ( ). Instructor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Twin-Cities, USA. Principles of Microeconomics ( ). Teaching Assistant, Department of Economics, University of Twin-Cities, USA. Reviewer for the journals: Contemporary Economic Policy, Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Journal of the European Economic Association, Economic Inquiry. Organizations: Member of the American Economic Association, European Economic Association, Population Association of America, American Society of Health Economists, Midwest Economics Association. Stata, Matlab, GAUSS, Fortran, C++, MPI, GSL and Eigen scientific libraries. Fluent in English, Hindi.

4 References David Canning Professor, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull Professor, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA. Günther Fink Associate Professor, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland Amil Petrin Professor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA. Jeffrey S. McCullough Associate Professor, Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.

5 Abstracts of Select Papers The Macroeconomic Impact of Fertility Changes in an Aging Population (Job Market Paper) We assess the impact of continued low fertility in China, versus a rebound in fertility due to the relaxation of the one child policy, on demographic and macroeconomic outcomes in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We build a rich model of household dynamics with young and elderly dependents, human capital investment, public health insurance, pensions, private savings, and intra-family transfers. Both the model steady state and transitions are calibrated using aggregate and micro level data for China. We find that in short run (sixty years in our benchmark experiment), income per capita is lower with a fertility rebound due primarily to a higher youth dependency rate. In the long run, higher fertility leads to a reduction in the old-age dependency ratio and lowers the tax rate required to pay for old-age pensions and health care. On the other hand, higher fertility also results in a reduction in female labor supply, savings, and educational attainment, affecting output adversely. Our results suggest that higher fertility in China is unlikely to offset the negative macroeconomic effects of population aging in the short-run and potentially could have negative long-run effects as well. Health, Longevity, and Welfare Inequality of the Elderly We propose a framework to understand the distribution of individual well-being and its change over time with an application to the U.S. elderly population. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we estimate life-cycle dynamics and simulate individual outcome paths starting from age sixty. We use an expected utility framework and the simulated profiles to construct a measure of individual welfare that incorporates differences in consumption, leisure, health, and mortality. Our measure suggests substantial variation in welfare across individuals driven foremost by gaps in health and mortality followed by gaps in consumption. Incorporating the utility cost of living with poor health into elderly welfare substantially increases overall inequality. Elderly welfare inequality has increased over time due to growing gaps in consumption, health, and mortality. Disparity measures based on cross-sectional income or consumption at age sixty underestimate aggregate welfare inequality. Moreover, health at age sixty is a better indicator of individual well-being rank than income or consumption. The Macroeconomic and Welfare Implications of Rural Health Insurance and Pension Reforms in China We assess the potential impact of rural health insurance and pension reforms on macroeconomic outcomes and social welfare in a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to the Chinese economy. We analyze transition paths as well as steady state responses to the new policies. The current reforms in China provide modest rural pensions and reimbursement of a portion of healthcare costs, but at rates that are substantially lower than are already in place in the urban sector. We investigate the potential effect of raising the rural benefit rates to those enjoyed in the urban sector. While both reforms reduce income per capita, we show that the health insurance reforms are potentially welfare improving if they are implemented in a way that leads to reduced out-ofpocket health spending. The welfare gains are driven by rural health insurance providing relief from the risk of catastrophic medical expenditures that can wipe out household savings and force long working hours. A pay-as-you-go rural pension results in a welfare gain in the short-run but welfare loss in the long-run due to the distorting effects of taxes. Despite an increase in required financing

6 due to an aging population, the welfare impact of rural health insurance remains positive when incorporating the projected old-age dependency ratio for the year However, a pay-as-you-go rural pension creates large income and welfare losses with 2050 demographics. Consumer Learning and the Entry of Generic Pharmaceuticals Generic pharmaceuticals provide low-cost access to treatment. Despite their chemical equivalence to branded products, many mechanisms may hinder generic substitution. Consumers may be unaware of their equivalence. Firms may influence consumers through advertising or product line extensions. We estimate a structural model of pharmaceutical demand where consumers learn about stochastic match qualities with specific drugs. Naive models, without consumer heterogeneity and learning, grossly underestimate demand elasticities. Consumer bias against generics critically depends on experience. Advertising and line extensions yield modest increases in branded market shares. These effects are dominated by consumers initial perception bias against generics. Pension Plan Heterogeneity and Retirement Behavior This paper examines the role of the shift in pension plans from annuity based retirement plans like Defined Benefit to account based plans like Defined Contribution in explaining the recent increase in labor force participation of older workers. A structural retirement model of consumption, savings, Social Security, and pension plan heterogeneity is estimated using data from the Health and Retirement Study. The model captures key differences in pension wealth evolution across Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution pension plans and produces variation in labor supply, both along the extensive and intensive margins at older ages, as observed in the data. Simulations from the model indicate that changes in pension plan composition can explain 10% to 30% percent of the recent increase in labor force participation of the age group 65 to 69, while changes in Social Security Normal Retirement Age and earnings test can together explain less than a quarter of the increase in labor supply for this group. The Welfare Effects of Mexico s Seguro Popular Health Insurance Reform We investigate the impact of the Mexico s Seguro Popular health insurance reform introduced in 2002 on macroeconomic outcomes and social welfare in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. A life cycle model of consumption, savings and labor supply decisions with heterogeneity in sector, health, mortality, labor productivity, education and medical expenditures is estimated using data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study and the Mexican Family Life Survey. The health and medical expenditure shocks, estimated from the data, exhibit important sector-specific educational gradient which is key for our welfare analysis. The health insurance reform extended health insurance coverage to those employed in the informal sector and as a result reduced out-of-pocket spending by 40% for this group. Implementing this reform in our model results in a small drop in the long-run income per capita (0.5%) but a 2% gain in welfare, measured as consumption equivalent variation. The welfare gains are primarily driven by redistribution of consumption and labor supply in the informal sector, with the highest gains coming from those without any formal education.

7 Infant Mortality Rates among Full Term Births in the United States : A National and State Level Assessment This paper uses data on infant birth and death records from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) to understand the geographical distribution and key drivers of infant mortality in the United States. Linked birth and death records for the period are used to identify state and cause specific burden of infant mortality among full-term infants (37-42 weeks of gestation). Multi-variable logistic models are used to assess the extent to which state-level differences in full term infant mortality (FTIM) are attributable to observed differences in maternal and birth characteristics. Random effect models are used to assess the relative contribution of state-level variation to FTIM. Hypothetical mortality outcomes are computed under the assumption that all territories could achieve survival rates of the best-performing states. The results of the analysis suggest that a substantial share of full-term infant deaths may be preventable. Potential improvements seem particularly large for Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy (SUDI), where very low rates have been achieved in a few states while average mortality rates remain high in most other areas.