Australian International Education Conference

Transcription

1 Australian International Education Conference The Demography of International Education: Impacts on Australia Bernard Salt 14 October 29 These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation. 1

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4 Australia is growing faster than at any time in our history students are a driver of growth , Boom Decline Recovery Boom 54, 5, 44, extra students 4, 3, 2, 1, Natural increase Net migration Net growth Components of annual population change in Australia between 1982 and 29 Australians are on the move to the coast Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<1% pa) between 1986 and 28 Broome Palmerston Cairns-Port Douglas Townsville Mackay Busselton Augusta- Margaret River Winners Losers Denmark Victor Harbor Surf Coast Sorell Gladstone Bundaberg Hervey Bay Sunshine Coast Gold Coast Byron Bay Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie Port Stephens Narooma 4

5 Australia is shifting its ethnic base from Anglo and Mediterranean to Asian influences Growing Extra China 64,324 26, India 52,34 147,15 3. New Zealand 37, , South Africa 25,18 14, Philippines 17,12 12,541 Contracting Loss Italy -18, , Greece -6,152 19, Poland -5,616 52, Netherlands -3,571 78, Malta -3,143 43,71 Some students converting to residents Old Italians and Greeks dying off Most growth and loss by place of birth in Australia, Education will crystallise around surge points in the Australian demographic profile 5, 4, 3, 2, Kids Pre-school Early primary Young adults Overseas workers Overseas students Household formation Little Emperor syndrome Mature adults Support for students Re-training Upskilling KIPPERS Retirees U3A Return to Uni Education for interest 1, -1, Absolute Growth Absolute Growth Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 1 years to 27 and 1 years to 217 Source: ABS Historical Population Statistics, 26, Department of Health and Ageing Population Projections, 27; KPMG 5

6 Most growth in VET sector total commencements expanding by 22, per year Growth Higher Education 51,7 85,1 33,4 VET 21,6 97, 75,4 ELICOS 25,4 64,4 39, Schools 21,6 26,5 5,5 Other 17,4 22,4 5, Total 126,2 28,7 154,5 Most growth in VET, up 75,4 ELICOS also a major growth area, up 39, Uni students up 33,4 29 commencements of 281,, up 44, over previous 12 months Source: AIE;DEEWR; KPMG China and India have been the fastest growing markets for international students Growth Commencements India 48, 52, 2. China 44, 68, 3. Nepal 1, 1, 4. South Korea 1, 11, 5. Saudi Arabia 6, 6, 6. Brazil 6, 8, 7. Thailand 4, 11, 8. Colombia 3, 5, 9. Pakistan 3, 3, 1. Sri Lanka 2, 3, Source: AIE;DEEWR; KPMG 6

7 Inner Sydney and Melbourne have attracted around 65, new residents over 1 years Sydney Melbourne Population June 28 was 338, up 61, over 1 years and 3, over 12 months Population June 28 was 259, up 68, over 1 years and 6, over 12 months The densest part of Melbourne is an international student stronghold 9,5 per sq km 7

8 Changes to life expectancy has created new market segments and lifestyle behaviours 29 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 82 Child Teen Old Adult Child Adult Old Change in life expectancy over 8 years in Australia Source: United Nations Statistics Division; KPMG There is a demographic fault line running through the Australian workforce , 2, Boomer Gen X Gen Y 2, 15, 1, 5, Historical 24 forecast 28 forecast Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 1 years in Australia based on 24 and 28 outlook 8

9 Japan s demographic fault line means reduced consumer spending in traditional markets ,, 1,5, Boomer Gen X Gen Y 1.5 million 1,, 5, -5, -1,, 1994 contraction -1,5, Historical Forecast Net change in working age population (15-64) over 1 years in Japan based on 27 outlook Source Statistics Bureau of Japan; KPMG Consumer demand in China will be supported by further rural to urban migration ,, 15,, Boomer Gen X Gen Y 15 million 1,, 5,, -5,, 216 contraction -1,, Historical Forecast Net change in working age population (15-64) over 1 years in China based on 27 outlook Source: United Nations Statistics Division; KPMG 9

10 The middle-class-isation of India will continue good opportunities for long-term growth ,, 14,, Boomer Gen X Gen Y 14 million 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, Historical Forecast Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 1 years in India based on 27 outlook Source: United Nations Statistics Division; KPMG Driving, storing, cleaning, caring and selling are jobs on the rise each requiring skills 26 Change No. % General Clerk 25,5 35,8 21% Commercial Cleaner 112,6 32,3 4% Aged or Disabled Person Carer 77,3 25,6 49% Registered Nurse 163,1 2,9 15% Heavy Truck Driver 124,5 19,8 19% Project & Program Administrator 11,4 19,5 21% Storeperson 139,7 19,3 16% Child Care Worker 63,3 18,2 4% Food & Drink Sales Assistant 182,1 17,1 1% Personal/Household Sales Assistant 15,3 17, 13% Australia 9,14,2 85,5 1% Top ten occupations by absolute job growth over 5 years to 26 in Australia total 1,3 occupations 1

11 Technology and policy shifts diminish other jobs which prompts reskilling 26 Change No. % Secretary 94,4-39,8-3% Fruit, Vegetable or Nut Farm Hand 2,2-6,4-24% Dairy Farmer 16,1-5,4-25% Sales and Marketing Manager 89, -5,3-6% General Farm Hand 24,1-5,2-18% Sewing Machinist 13,1-5,1-28% Electronic Engineering Technician 5,3-4,5-46% Packager and Container Filler 6,4-4, -38% Domestic Cleaner 16,2-3,9-19% Transport Company Manager 11,6-3,6-24% Australia 9,14,2 85,5 1% Top ten occupations by absolute job loss over 5 years to 26 in Australia Why are heavy truck drivers leaving the industry between the ages of 25 and 34? 25, 2, 21: 14,73 26: 124,518 Diff: 19,788 or 19% 15, 1, Losing staff 34% of heavy truck drivers are aged 5+ 5, Gaining staff and over Age profile of heavy truck drivers between 21 and 26 11

12 It s easier to hold onto old nurses than it is to recruit and retain young nurses 3, 25, 2, 21: 142,22 26: 163,83 Diff: 2,881 or 15% 31% of registered nurses are aged 5+ 15, 1, 5, and over Age profile of registered nurses between 21 and 26 Religious minister shrinkage might prompt a spate of international vicar-nicking 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Teenage Ministers of Religion from the Church of Like Whatever 21: 14,238 26: 14,778 Diff: 54 or 4% 48% of ministers of religion are aged and over Age profile of ministers of religion between 21 and 26 12

13 Generation Y set to transition into household formation next decade Baby boomers - There goes my early retirement - Boomers hadn t saved enough before the crash - No time to recover from GFC - Returning to or engaging with the workplace Generation X - Wrong time to be Mortgage, kids & single income - Unlucky generation but sick of Gen Ys - Moving into leadership roles Generation Y - Never experienced recession - First time someone has said no - Learn the lesson of the downturn - See value in assets and commitment Generation Z - Prudent, connected, technophile The Great Australasian Man Drought Stage 3A restrictions now apply More men 1% 5% Boy Town Man Mountain More women % -5% -1% 27 Man Drought Widow World 35-15% Australia New Zealand Percentage difference in the number of men and women in Australia and New Zealand by individual year in 26 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Statistics New Zealand; KPMG 13

14 Contact Bernard Salt KPMG Australia bsalt@kpmg.com.au twitter.com/bernardsalt linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt Education services required on the urban fringe and in seachange communities 1. Brisbane 17, Gold Coast 13,21 3. Moreton Bay 11, Wyndham 8, Sunshine Coast 8, Wanneroo 8, Casey 8,14 8. Ipswich 6,14 9. Melton 6,16 1. Cairns 5,985 Total Australia 354,57 The new Western Front Top 1 growth areas in Australia over 12 months to June 28 14

15 Fear drives community behaviour and values during a downturn Then Recession Now 29+ Era of high consumerism and of corporate high-flyers Live for the moment pay in the future Plasma TVs, McMansions, Manolo Blahnik shoes Easy credit rising house prices Celebration of the individual confidence in the future and in ourselves Consumers driven by Aspirationalism Rise of the moral consumer the new Wowserism Anti-drinking, smoking, speeding, gambling, junk-food (obesity) concern about corporate excess Rise of Green, ethical & traditional values: celebrities & LG Fear drives a retreat to the security of the herd, the tribe, the family, familiar brands? Consumers driven by a New Morality 15