Dublin Economic Monitor

Transcription

1 Dubli Ecoomic Moitor issue 2 summer 2015 i this issue LATEST DUBLIN ECONOMIC DATA DUBLIN ECONOMY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN MARKIT DUBLIN PMI KBC/ESRI CONSUMER SENTIMENT F E A T U R I N G PAGE 13 THE ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE OF DUBLIN AIRPORT by Vicet Harriso, Maagig Director, Dubli Airport PAGE 14 SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN CITY CENTRE TRANSPORT PLANNED by Breda O Brie, Head of Techical Services, Dubli City Coucil

2 WELCOME highlights Dubli uemploymet rates cotiue to fall year o year albeit there has bee some stabilisatio i Q Residetial rets for Dubli houses reached their highest poit i over 6 years while rets for Dubli apartmets are ow at 2008 levels. Passeger arrivals at Dubli Airport reached a record high i April 2015, breakig the oe millio passegers mark for the first time, ad repeatig this i Jue (seasoally adjusted). Dubli Port cargo likewise reached a all-time high, hadlig 8.1 millio toes i the secod quarter of Car licesig statistics cotiue o a upward tred reflectig the geeral ecoomic uptur over the past two years. The Dubli MARKIT PMI Dubli PMI data poits to strog acceleratig expasio of output durig Q2, primarily drive by Services, but with the Costructio sector also featurig; however, the rate of job creatio has slowed. Dubli KBC/ESRI Cosumer setimet i both Dubli ad the rest of Irelad is the highest i the history of the series which stretches back to Mai Cover Photograph: Doal Murphy welcome to the 2d issue of THE dubli ecoomic moitor We were delighted with the respose to the lauch of the Moitor i April. It is clear from the feedback we received that it is meetig a real busiess eed i the regio. The Dubli Ecoomic Moitor is a joit iitiative o behalf of the four Dubli Local Authorities, coordiated by the City Coucil. The commissioig of the Moitor represets the further maifestatio of the ehaced role of Local Authorities i the area of ecoomic developmet ad eterprise support, i lie with the local govermet reform programme. It is iteded to address the absece of a regular bulleti o treds i the Dubli ecoomy. The Dubli City Regio (4 Dubli local authorities combied) plays a icreasigly importat role i the ecoomy of Irelad ad it is importat Dubli City Coucil South Dubli Couty Coucil that its performace is properly tracked. We believe that the Moitor will be of particular iterest to all those livig ad doig busiess i Dubli or cosiderig locatig here. We are delighted to work with DKM Ecoomic Cosultats who have bee egaged to produce the Moitor, ad with KBC/ESRI to develop Dubli cosumer setimet data ad MARKIT to develop a Dubli Purchasig Maager Idex (PMI). More iformatio o the Moitor is available at DubliCity/ while iteractive charts are also available o the Dubli dashboard We hope you fid the Moitor useful ad welcome ay feedback to ifo@leo.dublicity.ie. The ext release will be published olie o Thursday the 22d of October. Figal Couty Coucil Dú Laoghaire Rathdow Couty Coucil This documet provides geeral iformatio o the Dubli ecoomy. It is ot iteded to be used as a basis for ay particular course of actio or as a substitute for fiacial advice. The documet is produced idepedetly by DKM Ecoomic Cosultats; the views ad opiios expressed are those of the relevat author, ad do ot ecessarily reflect the views of the Dubli Local Authorities. The Dubli Local Authorities disclaim all liability i coectio with ay actio that may be take i reliace of this documet, ad for ay error, deficiecy, flaw or omissio cotaied i it. 2 //

3 ECONOMY global ecoomy atioal ecoomy At the time of writig the global ecoomy is i a state of particular ucertaity, but with the prospect of resolutio o a umber of frots. The Greek crisis appears to be comig to a positive coclusio, with a third bailout agreed ad Grexit avoided for ow, albeit it still requires parliametary approval i a umber of coutries, ad short term actio i Greece itself. The Chiese stock markets have stabilised, after some severe volatility ad large losses i recet weeks. Viewed from outside, it has the appearaces of a badly eeded correctio. However, The Ecoomist reports that Chiese stock markets are still 75% up o the year. More geerally, the iteratioal situatio cotiues to be promisig for Irelad ad Dubli. Notably, the Euro remais weak agaist the currecies of our most importat tradig parters dow almost 20% agaist the US$ ad over 10% agaist Sterlig i the last 12 moths - boostig prospects for exports ad tourism. Oil prices, which would otherwise have rise i Euro terms, remai subdued, losig value more recetly, havig crept up i previous moths. Bret crude is little more tha half its price of a year ago i US$ terms. A Iraia uclear agreemet holds out the prospect of a sigificat boost to world oil supply, which should keep dowward pressure o prices for the foreseeable future. The IMF ow expects the global ecoomy to grow by 3.3% i 2015, a slight dowward revisio o its previous projectio. However, overall the outlook remais positive, ad further reboud i the developed world ecoomies is expected i 2016, although risks remai, otably i terms of further stregtheig of the US$ ad geopolitical factors. Oe dowside is that prospects for the Eurozoe remai subdued compared to the US ad UK. Some risks are preset with respect to the UK, specifically a further reductio i the Corporatio Tax rate to 18% i the recet Budget, which is gettig oticeably closer to Irelad s much-heralded 12.5% rate. The commitmet to a Brexit referedum as early as ext year by the ew Tory Govermet, predicated o reegotiatios of the terms of the UK s EU membership, is a complicatig factor. Trade with our most importat sigle tradig parter would be potetially impacted, though to what degree is ot clear. However, Irelad could beefit also, if iteratioal firms seekig to maitai a presece withi the EU relocate to Irelad. photograph by Jaso Clarke The Irish ecoomic recovery appears well-established, with growth emergig across sectors ad to a icreasig degree across the coutry. Exchequer returs are cofirmig the geerally positive outlook, as are uemploymet rates, which cotiue to fall atioally albeit with some stabilisatio i Jue. The busiess ad cosumer setimet idices likewise cofirm greater cofidece with regard to both curret ad future circumstaces amog households ad firms. The latest ESRI Quarterly Ecoomic Commetary presets 2015 ad 2016 forecasts (table below), ad projects cotiued strog growth ad gradually reducig uemploymet. This October will see the last budget before the Geeral Electio, ad so we ca expect some looseig of the purse strigs. As idicated, the exteral eviromet is positive, ad the Govermet is i the fortuate positio of beig able to meet its deficit targets while still havig some room to maoeuvre o icreased spedig ad/or tax cuts. Credit markets also poit to a cotiued uwidig of the costraied situatio of recet years. The Cetral Bak idicates that the umber of mortgages i arrears (icludig buy-to-lets) at 138,000 is cotiuig o its dowward tred, fallig over 5% i Q compared to Q Likewise, the amout of debt o private sector balace sheets is fallig, while the amout of ew ledig to SMEs is risig. irish macroecoomic growth forecasts major ecoomies gdp growth forecasts % % f % f global uk us euro area germay japa chia idia % % f % f gp gdp domestic demad private cosumptio public expediture ivestmet exports imports uemploymet rate cpi iflatio Source: IMF July 2015 sources: cso, esri summer 2015 qec *ex-stocks // 3

4 DUBLIN ECONOMY DUBLIN ECONOMY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN Dubli remais i the umber two spot for the secod year ruig for real estate ivestmet ad developmet i Europe. This follows a strog year which saw a wide rage of ivestors jostlig for opportuities - PWC Emergig Treds i Real Estate Europe 2015 photograph provided courtesy of Irish Air Corps The ecoomic recovery ow apparet at the atioal level cotiues to maifest itself particularly i the Dubli regio. Across a rage of idicators, Dubli remais ahead of the rest of the coutry for ecoomic performace. The uemploymet rate i the capital is a full percetage poit lower tha i the coutry as a whole, although the gap has closed. Services employmet cotiues to grow, ad costructio is also startig to emerge as a source of employmet growth after a log period of very little developmet activity. Dubli s property market both residetial ad commercial cotiues to experiece strog demad. Dubli residetial rets are returig to record high levels eve as house prices themselves have stabilised o foot of Cetral Bak itervetio. House prices i the surroudig couties are ow startig to exhibit strog growth. Commercial rets are beig impacted by the same process: office rets are ow risig more strogly i the suburbs tha i the prime locatios, as the recovery spreads throughout the regio. Dubli s trasport ifrastructure is experiecig strog regioal growth, whether i terms of public trasport, car traffic, or air or sea traffic. Future plas for city cetre traffic maagemet (see p14) will add to the attractio of the city s public trasport ifrastructure i the comig years. Car sales, meawhile, cotiue to grow. Arrivals at Dubli Airport reached a record high i April 2015 (see p13), ad have ow broke the oe millio passeger mark for the secod time i three moths (seasoally adjusted). The recet takeover of Aer Ligus by IAG poits to strog ew opportuities, as the airport s potetial as a hub is exploited. Already it has some of the best liks with Lodo ad with North America of ay Europea airport. Cargo traffic at Dubli Port likewise reached record levels i Q2 2015, reflectig strog export ad import activity. Plaig permissio has ow bee grated for a major capacity developmet at the port, which will facilitate cotiued growth goig forward. Iteratioally published bechmarks are a useful meas of measurig a city s performace relative to its peers, ad recet idicators for Dubli capture the city s resurgece (see table below). Notable is Dubli s 3rd place i the FDI Itelligece Europea Cities & Regios of the Future idex, ad 7th place i the Europe s Biggest Startup Cities idex. dubli's latest iteratioal rakigs Source Bechmark Criteria Year rakig Chage Brookigs Istitute - Global MetroMoitor GDP per capita JLL Global City - Mometum Idex Real estate Mercer Quality of Livig Survey Evirometal/socio-ecoomic AT Kearey - Global City Outlook Well-beig, Ecoomics, iovatio, Goverace FDI Itelligece - Europea Cities ad Regios Of The Future 2015/2016 Socio-ecoomic * FDI Markets Top Cities for Greefield FDI FDI ivestmet QS World Uiversity Rakigs Uiversity quality 2014/15 71** MasterCard 2015 Global Destiatio Cities Idex Lodo s Feeder Cities NA Citylab Global City Ecoomic Power Idex Idex of idices Copehageize Idex of Cyclig Friedly Cities Ifrastructure, modal share, safety PWC Emergig Treds i Real Estate Europe 2015 Real estate ivestmet, developmet Savills Tech Cities busiess eviromet NA EU Startups Europe s Biggest Startup Cities Startups registered *of major Europea cities; **Triity College Dubli highest rakig i Dubli. Chage o previous publicatio of the relevat bechmark. A upward-poitig arrow deotes a improvemet. 4 //

5 ECONOMIC INDICATORS DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORs photograph by Joaa Travers dubli uemploymet reaches a six-year low dubli & atioal uemploymet rate % (SA) 16% Natioal Max 15.1 % q1 '15 dubli uemploymet % 8.9% year o year chage % poits -1.4 dubli employmet '000s year o year chage '000s +9.7 source: cso qhs seasoally adjusted 14% 12% 10% 8% Dubli Max 13 % Dubli s labour market recorded a modest improvemet i Q as the uemploymet rate fell to a six-year low of 8.9%, cotiuig the dowward tred from a peak of 13% i Q The Capital s uemploymet rate remais far i excess of full employmet of circa 4%, but stads a full percetage poit below the Q atioal average of 9.9%. 6% 4% 2006Q1 2006Q4 2007Q3 2008Q2 2009Q1 2009Q4 Natioal 2010Q3 2011Q2 2012Q1 Dubli 2012Q4 2013Q3 2014Q2 2015Q1 source: cso qhs seasoally adjusted (atioal & dubli) private services & costructio drive employmet growth q1 '15 services employmet year o year chage '000s +5.3 idustry & costructio employmet '000s 71.3 year o year chage '000s +6.7 source: cso qhs seasoally adjusted employmet by broad sector '000s (SA) Max 634, , The proportio of Dubli residets employed i the private services sector rose to i excess of 360,000 i Q1 2015, while employmet i the public sector remaied relatively stable at almost 150,000 employees. Costructio recorded the largest proportioal yoy gais of 19.2%, albeit from a much reduced base give the sector s recet difficulties. Idustry, which is the third largest sector i the Capital, had strog yoy employmet growth of 5.9% Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Private Sector Services Public Sector Idustry Costructio source: cso qhs seasoally adjusted. idividual sector values may ot sum to total due to roudig. // 5

6 DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS employmet i services '000s (SA) retail & fiacial sectors boost employmet i services Max 517, ,000 q1 '15 private sector services employmet '000s yoy chage '000s +5.3 public sector services employmet '000s yoy chage '000s +0.2 source: cso qhs. seasoally adjusted by dkm Employmet i the services sector amogst Dubli residets rose yoy i Q1 2015, drive by expasios of 4.5% ad 8% i Wholesale & Retail ad Fiacial/Isurace respectively. Accommodatio & Food, ICT ad Professioal/Scietific/ Techical, which egage almost 45,000 workers each, recorded moderate yoy employmet declies. Huma Health & Social Work is the secod largest service sector i the Capital with c.75,000 workers, ad recorded modest yoy growth of 1%. dubli property prices remai stable MAY 15 property price idex dubli 83.2 yoy % chage property price idex atioal excl dubli 76.3 yoy % chage source: cso. mortgage-fiaced trasactios oly Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Health Educatio Public Admi Wholesale & Retail Prof/ Scietific/ Tech Fiacial/ Isurace Trasport & Storage Accommodatio & Food ICT Other source: cso qhs. seasoally adjusted by dkm. idividual sector values may ot sum to total due to roudig. residetial property price idex (2005 = 100) Natioal Max: Residetial property prices showed further sigs of stabilisatio i May 2015, with the idex of property prices decliig margially i Dubli yet icreasig slightly i the rest of the coutry. Nevertheless, i the year to May 2015, property prices i Dubli icreased by 15% while outside Dubli prices were up 12%. The tred i the data may reflect a stabilisig effect of the ew Cetral Bak rules o Loa-to- Value ratios Ja 06 Sep 06 May 07 Ja 08 Sep 08 May 09 Ja 10 Sep 10 May 11 Ja 12 Sep 12 May 13 Dubli Natioal Excl Dubli source: cso. mortgage-fiaced trasactios oly Ja 14 Sep 14 May 15 residetial rets retur to 2008 levels q1 '15 dubli house ret per moth 1,325 yoy chage dubli apt ret per moth 1,205 yoy chage source: prtb 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 residetial rets per moth Dubli House Max: 1,438 Dubli Apt Max: 1,275 Residetial rets i Dubli rose further i Q as excess demad cotiues to affect prices. Average Dubli house rets reached their highest poit i over 6 years ad are curretly almost twice as costly as i the rest of the coutry. Similarly, average rets for Dubli apartmets recorded a eighth straight quarter of growth i Q1 2015, thus returig to 2008 levels Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Dubli House Dubli Apt Natioal ex Dubli House Natioal ex Dubli Apt source: prtb 6 //

7 DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS office rets surge i prime locatios (base year = 2006) 120 dubli office rets idex (2006 = 100) City Cetre Max = q2 '15 city cetre office ret idex 90.9 yoy % chages south suburb office ret idex yoy % chages South Suburbs Max = 110 source: cbre 80 Office rets i Dubli cotiue o a upward tred i the City Cetre ad the South Suburbs with strog yoy growth rates recorded i both areas i Q Office rets i the City Cetre are ow 25% higher tha at the same time a year ago. Quarterly price growth was strogest i the South Suburbs i Q2 2015, possibly reflectig the lack of office space i the City Cetre. Rets i the City Cetre are almost double those i the South Suburbs, though rets i the South Suburbs are ow back to peak levels. Rets i the City Cetre are curretly at 80% of the peak Q2 06 Q1 07 source: cbre Q4 07 Q3 08 Q2 09 Dubli Q1 10 Q4 10 Q3 11 Q2 12 Q1 13 South Suburbs Q4 13 Q3 14 Q2 15 office vacacy rates declie across dubli q2 '15 vacacy rate % dubli 2/4 6.2 yoy chage %age poits -2.9 vacacy rate % dubli suburbs 13.0 yoy chage %age poits -2.9 source: cbre 30% 25% 20% 15% dubli office space vacacy rates % Dubli Suburbs Max = 24% Dubli 2/4 Max = 17.9% Strog demad i the prime office locatio of Dubli 2/4 has resulted i the office vacacy rate i the area cotiuig to fall i Q A declie of almost 3 percetage poits over the past year brigs the curret vacacy rate to 6.2% ad back to levels last see i The vacacy rate i the Suburbs fell by almost 2 percetage poits qoq i Q2 2015, to retur to the lowest level of 13%. Nevertheless it remais sigificatly higher tha the Dubli 2/4 regio idicatig how office demad cotiues to be focused o the core city area. 10% 5% 0% Q2 06 Q1 07 source: cbre Q4 07 Q3 08 Q2 09 Q1 10 Q4 10 Dubli 2/4 Q3 11 Q2 12 Q1 13 Q4 13 Dubli Suburbs Q3 14 Q2 15 public trasport trips cotiue o upward tred 46.0 public trasport millio trips (sa) q1 '15 public trasport millio trips 45.8 yoy chage millio trips (SA) +1.2 Source: NTA, seasoal adjustmet by DKM Public trasport trips i Dubli cotiued o a upward tred i Q to reach 45.8 millio trips (seasoally adjusted) i the quarter. This correspods to a icrease of 1.2 millio trips compared to the same quarter i Public trasport trips are ow back to levels see at the start of 2010, reflectig cotiued ecoomic growth i the capital Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q3 14 Q1 15 Source: NTA, seasoal adjustmet by DKM // 7

8 DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS dubli airport arrivals at 9-year high 1,100,000 dubli airport arrivals '000s (sa) Max: 1,006,800 apr '15 total arrivals '000s (SA) 1,006.8 yoy chage '000s trips +132 source: cso, seasoal adjustmet by dkm 1,000, , ,000 Passeger arrivals at Dubli Airport reached a 9 year high of almost 1,007,000 i April This represeted a seasoally adjusted yoy icrease of 15.1% ad is a partial reflectio of the attractiveess of a weakeed Euro for tourists to Irelad. As illustrated i the special feature o page 13 of this report, strog iward passeger umbers at Dubli Airport are highly beeficial for may sectors of the ecoomy, both i the Capital ad atiowide. 700, , ,000 Feb 06 Dec 06 Oct 07 Aug 08 Ju 09 Severe Witer Weather Iceladic Ash Cloud Apr 10 Feb 11 Dec 11 Oct 12 Aug 13 Ju 14 Apr 15 source: cso, seasoal adjustmet by dkm dubli port toage up 24% from low poit i dubli port toage millio toes (sa) 8.0 q2 '15 Dubli port millio toes (SA) 8.1 YoY Chage millio toes source: dubli port, seasoal adjustmet by dkm 7.0 Toage through Dubli Port cotiued to grow i the secod quarter of 2015, to reach 8.1 millio toes (seasoally adjusted). This represets a icrease of 300,000 toes or 4% o the same period i Toage through Dubli Port has icreased by 24% from a low poit of 6.5 millio toes i Q2 2009, ad is ow at its highest level i the past 9 years Mi = 6.5 millio toes Q1 07 Q4 07 Q3 08 Q2 09 Q1 10 Q4 10 Q3 11 Q2 12 Q1 13 Q4 13 Q3 14 Q2 15 source: dubli port, seasoal adjustmet by dkm ew car licesig idicates improvig ecoomy MAY '15 Dubli New Cars LiceceD (SA) 3,452 yoy chage '000s +785 Rest of Irelad New Car LiceceD (SA) 5,995 Yoy Chage +1,097 7,000 6,000 5,000 ew private cars licesed per moth (sa) source: cso; seasoally adjusted by dkm New car sales are a good idicator of ecoomic expectatios ad cosumer cofidece. The latest treds i ew car licesig statistics clearly show that car sales have bee o a upward tred over the past two ad a half years, reflectig the geeral ecoomic uptur over the period. New private cars licesed for the first time i Dubli reached 3,452 uits (seasoally adjusted) i May 2015, a icrease of 785 cars or 29% o May Outside Dubli, ew private cars licesed were just short o 6,000 uits i May, up over 1,000 uits o the same period last year. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Ja 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Ja 14 Dubli source: cso; seasoally adjusted by dkm Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Rest of Irelad Nov 14 Ja 15 Mar 15 May 15 8 //

9 KBC/ESRI DUBLIN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX kbc/esri dubli cosumer setimet idex, quarter 2, 2015 The Cosumer Setimet Idex for Dubli improved further i the secod quarter of 2015 to from i the first quarter of the year. The secod quarter icrease sustais a positive tred i setimet that has become firmly established through the past couple of years. The setimet idex for the rest of Irelad icreased margially i Q2, reachig 153.9, up from i Q photograph by Joaa Travers survey idex results, 2014 qtr 2 to 2015 qtr 2 (2003 = 100) 2014 q q q q q2 Dubli Cosumer Setimet Idex Dubli Idex of Curret Coditios Dubli Idex of Cosumer Expectatios Dubli cosumers cotiue to grow more cofidet about the ecoomic outlook ad, more importatly, about their persoal fiaces. As a result, the survey also fids Dubli cosumers are sigallig stroger spedig itetios. These factors combied to boost Dubli cosumer setimet to its best level i twelve years. - Austi Hughes, Chief Ecoomist KBC Bak Irelad 180 Dubli Cosumer Setimet Idex, (2003 = 100) The Q2 Dubli ad rest of Irelad cosumer setimet readigs are the highest i the history of the series which stretches back to The improvemet i Dubli setimet was broadly based, drive by a more positive assessmet of cosumers curret persoal fiacial circumstaces. Views o the prospects for the Irish ecoomy cotiued to improve albeit modestly. The outlook for the jobs market remaied very positive but chaged little compared to the previous quarter Q1 2004Q4 2006Q3 Dubli 2008Q2 2010Q1 2011Q4 Rest of Irelad 2013Q3 2015Q2 About The KBC/ESRI Dubli Cosumer Setimet Idex is costructed based o the resposes to five questios. These questios ask cosumers their view o how the ecoomic situatio will develop over the ext 12 moths (get better/stay the same/get worse), whether the umber of people out of work i the coutry i the ext 12 moths will icrease/remai the same/decrease, how the household fiacial situatio compares to 12 moths ago, ad how will it chage over the ext 12 moths ((get better/stay the same/get worse). Fially cosumers are asked about whether they thik it is a good time to purchase major household durables such as such as furiture, washig machies, TV sets etc. // 9

10 KBC/ESRI DUBLIN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX idex of curret coditios i dubli cotiues to climb 140 Cosumers' curret coditios idex (2003 = 100) The improvemet i cosumer setimet i Dubli has bee primarily the result of a more positive perceptio of curret coditios. I the secod quarter of 2015 over oe i four Dubli cosumers were positive about their curret household fiaces, compared with just over oe i five i quarter Outside Dubli the idex of curret coditios declied i Q2, 2015 as cosumers became more egative i their view of the curret buyig climate for major household durables. I cotrast, their outlook for the labour market outside Dubli has become more positive this quarter Q1 2004Q4 2006Q3 2008Q2 2010Q1 2011Q4 2013Q3 2015Q2 Dubli Rest of Irelad dubli cosumers cotiue to have a positive perceptio of the future The Dubli expectatios idex icreased by 5 poits QoQ up to Just over 29 per cet of Dubli cosumers expect their household fiacial situatio to improve over the ext 12 moths compared to 19 per cet that evisage deterioratio. This is the strogest readig i this elemet of the survey sice the begiig of Cosumers' expectatios idex, (2003 = 100) Some 69 per cet of Dubli cosumers are positive i their view of the ecoomic outlook for the ext year compared to just 8 per cet that expect coditios to weake. The majority of Dubli cosumers also thik the jobs market will improve further, as was the case i the previous quarter Q1 2004Q4 2006Q3 Dubli 2008Q2 2010Q1 Rest of Irelad 2011Q4 2013Q3 2015Q2 For further iformatio cotact Austi Hughes Chief Ecoomist, KBC Bak Irelad (01) David Duffy Seior Research Officer, ESRI (01) A commetary o the survey is also available o kbc.ie/ecoomic briefigs Notes The data are obtaied from telephoe iterviews durig the first two weeks of the moth. The data are re-weighted i lie with geder, age, ecoomic status, level of educatioal attaimet, regio ad household size to esure the data was fully represetative of the atioal populatio of adults. The cosumer setimet idex is calculated by computig the relative scores (the percet givig favourable replies mius the percet givig ufavourable replies (the balace), plus 100) for each questio used i the differet idices. Those who reply Do t Kow, Remai the same are excluded from the idex calculatios. Each relative score is rouded to the earest whole umber. The sum of the relative scores is the divided by the base period total for each idex. The Dubli cosumer setimet idex is calculated usig the same methodology as the KBC Irelad/ESRI Cosumer Setimet Idex. However, to esure that the Dubli Idex is represetative of the Dubli regio, a ew set of weights was costructed takig accout of the age ad sex of the populatio. Similarly, a ew set of weights was costructed for the Rest of Irelad. I the process of costructig the ew weights, the latest data available were used, icludig adjustmets to the QNHS data followig the cesuses of 2006 ad Therefore, the Dubli idex is ot directly comparable to the published atioal idex which was weighted based o the data available at the time of publicatio. The setimet idex for Dubli is based o approximately 700 resposes per quarter. 10 //

11 markit dubli purchasig maagers idex (pmi) Overall MARKIT Dubli PMI The headlie seasoally adjusted Dubli PMI averaged 61.7 i Q2, up from 59.5 i Q1. A idex readig above 50 idicates a overall icrease i that variable, below 50 a overall decrease. Latest Q2 PMI data for Dubli sigalled a reboud i growth durig the secod quarter of 2015, allayig ay fears that might have bee raised followig a slight slowdow at the start of the year. Leadig the reboud was the costructio sector, where the rate of expasio retured to those levels see towards the ed of Further strog growth was also recorded i the maufacturig ad service sectors i Q2. Meawhile, Dubli looks to be pullig the rest of Irelad alog with it, with the rate of expasio i output outside Dubli also acceleratig to a pace oly margially weaker tha see i the capital. Adrew Harker, Seior Ecoomist at Markit MARKIT DUBLIN PMI INDEX The Dubli Purchasig Maagers Idex (PMI) series is produced by Markit Ecoomics, a idepedet research compay that produces highly-regarded surveys of busiess coditios i atios aroud the world. The Dubli PMI is calculated usig resposes from the three mothly Republic of Irelad PMI surveys; the Ivestec Maufacturig PMI Irelad, the Ivestec Services PMI Irelad ad the Ulster Bak Irelad Costructio PMI. The Dubli figures are based o resposes from compaies i the NUTS3 regio of Dubli (based o about 300 resposes per moth) while Rest of Irelad data also iclude 300 resposes per moth. photograph by Joaa Travers overall markit dubli pmi (sa) 50 = o chage 2001 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Dubli Rest of Irelad * sa - seasoally adjusted 2015 Q2 Dubli PMI data poited to a strog ad accelerated expasio of output durig the secod quarter of 2015, averagig 61.7 i Q2, up from 59.5 i Q1. The rise i output this quarter was faster tha the average see over the curret sequece of growth sice The rate of expasio also quickeed across the rest of Irelad, but was slightly weaker tha i Dubli. The Dubli costructio sector saw growth reboud strogly i Q2 (71.5) while the services sector idicated cotiued strog growth (61.2). The icrease i services activity i Dubli was weaker tha that see across the rest of Irelad, where the rate of growth picked up. Maufacturig productio has expaded i Dubli for the thirteeth successive quarter i Q2 (57.5). About PMI Purchasig Maagers Idex (PMI ) surveys are ow available for 32 coutries ad also for key regios icludig the Eurozoe. They are the most closely-watched busiess surveys i the world, favoured by cetral baks, fiacial markets ad busiess decisio makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate ad ofte uique mothly idicators of ecoomic treds. To lear more go to ecoomics. The Overall PMI refereced is based o the output/busiess activity questio from each survey. Survey resposes reflect the chage, if ay, i the curret moth compared to the previous moth based o data collected mid-moth. The raw idex is the sum of the positive resposes plus a half of those respodig the same. cotiued o ext page... // 11

12 MARKIT DUBLIN PMI INDEX 65 overall pmi ew orders (SA) 50 = o chage The rate of growth i ew busiess i Dubli also quickeed durig the secod quarter of the year Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 New orders i Dubli have icreased cotiuously sice Q Despite remaiig strog, the expasio i Dubli was slightly weaker tha recorded i the rest of Irelad this quarter. Dubli Rest of Irelad overall pmi employmet growth (SA) = o chage Compaies i Dubli cotiued to icrease their staffig levels durig Q However, the rate of job creatio eased for the secod quarter ruig to the weakest sice Q This is see also i the QNHS labour market statistics for Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 The rise i employmet i Dubli was broadly i lie with that see across the rest of Irelad, where the rate of job creatio picked up. Dubli Rest of Irelad Disclaimer The itellectual property rights to the Dubli PMI provided herei are owed by or licesed to Markit Ecoomics Limited. Ay uauthorised use, icludig but ot limited to copyig, distributig, trasmittig or otherwise of ay data appearig is ot permitted without Markit s prior coset. Markit shall ot have ay liability, duty or obligatio for or relatig to the cotet or iformatio ( data ) cotaied herei, ay errors, iaccuracies, omissios or delays i the data, or for ay actios take i reliace thereo. I o evet shall Markit be liable for ay special, icidetal, or cosequetial damages, arisig out of the use of the data. Purchasig Maagers Idex ad PMI are either registered trade marks of Markit Ecoomics Limited or licesed to Markit Ecoomics Limited. Ivestec, Ulster Bak ad Dubli City Coucil use the above marks uder licese. Markit is a registered trade mark of Markit Group Limited. 12 //

13 the ecoomic importace of dubli airport Vicet Harriso Maagig Director - Dubli Airport SPECIAL REPORT Dubli Airport is oe of the most importat ecoomic etities i the coutry accordig to a recet ecoomic impact study Air passeger traffic is a vital barometer of the health of the Irish ecoomy ad is also a precursor to further ecoomic growth, as it geerates ecoomic spi offs at a regioal ad atioal level. I the first six moths of 2015, passeger umbers at Dubli Airport have icreased by 15%, with strog growth evidet across all market segmets. While the ecoomic importace of airports i supportig iteratioal trade ad coectivity is well recogised, a ew study by IterVISTAS (available at www. dubliairport.com/gs/about-us/), has ow quatified the depth of Dubli Airport s huge ecoomic impact across the State. The study highlights how Dubli Airport is a vital elemet of Irelad s atioal ifrastructure, supportig or facilitatig a total of 97,400 jobs across the Irish ecoomy ad cotributig a total of 6.9 billio to the coutry s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As oe of the largest ecoomic etities i the State, Dubli Airport is worth 4% of the atioal ecoomy. The study otes that Without Dubli Airport, ad particularly without the extesive coectivity at the airport, the Irish ecoomy would ot be as large, affluet or diverse as it is today. The umber of jobs supported by Dubli Airport icludes direct jobs osite at the airport ad at airport related busiesses ad is estimated to be i the regio of 15,700 jobs ad worth 1.3 billio to the ecoomy. Airlies are the largest providers of employmet at Dubli Airport ad are resposible for 5,290 jobs, followed by the Dubli Airport Authority, the airport operator, with 2,350 jobs while groud hadlig ad other support services provide a further 2,080 jobs. A further 9,600 jobs, worth 700 millio to the Irish ecoomy are supported idirectly i busiesses supplyig to ad supportig the airport. Spedig by employees i these busiess o goods ad services supports a further 12,000 jobs, worth 800 millio, i the wider ecoomy. The coectivity provided by Dubli Airport also has a catalytic impact o the ecoomy, supportig a further 60,100 jobs, worth 4.2 billio, i helpig to attract tourists, facilitatig trade ad ivestmet ad cotributig to the growth of both the regioal ad atioal ecoomies. Dubli s coectivity to Irelad s established markets of Britai ad the Uited States is urivalled by other Europea airports ad is complimeted by a extesive Europea route etwork, ad growig liks to the Middle East ad Africa. The report otes that there was a clear likage betwee the coectivity provided by Dubli Airport ad growth i tourism, trade ad FDI, with the value of Irish goods exports to coutries with frequet coectios i.e. five times per week o a year-roud basis five to six times more tha to coutries that were poorly coected to Dubli. With the potetial to double its ecoomic impact over the ext three decades, the importace of Dubli Airport to the local ad atioal ecoomy is clearly evidet. IterVISTAS estimate that by 2043, Dubli Airport could support 194,000 jobs worth 14.4 billio i GDP, although this depeds o the delivery of a secod ruway at the airport ad a umber of other log term projects. // 13

14 SPECIAL TOPIC sigificat developmets i city cetre trasport plaed Breda O Brie Head of Techical Services - Dubli City Coucil Implemetig Trasport Study Proposals will be Critical to the Sustaiable Developmet of the City Cetre The Dubli City Cetre Trasport Study, which was udertake by Dubli City Coucil ad the Natioal Trasport Authority (NTA), sets out a visio for how trasport ad mobility i the city cetre will be maaged ad ehaced over the ext 7 years. The key objectives of the Study are: To protect the ivestmet that already has bee ad cotiues to be made i public trasport i the city ad the regio. To guaratee the future developmet potetial of the city cetre, ad improve cofidece i the ability of the city cetre to be the key focus of future ivestmet. To icrease the capacity, reliability ad use of public trasport through the city cetre. To improve the quality of service for cyclig ad walkig, especially i the core city cetre. To esure that the city develops i a way which will provide a better livig ad workig eviromet for residets ad visitors alike ad; To provide a agreed framework for cotiued trasport ivestmet i the city cetre. The challeges of providig a Luas route through the very heart of the city are cosiderable, both durig the costructio phase ad whe the service is i operatio. The Luas Cross City project which is ow uder costructio will provide a high quality, frequet service through the cetre of the city ad will help trasform people s movemet aroud the city cetre. It will ot be able to operate effectively uless there is a sigificat reductio i geeral traffic alog ad across its route. Hece the eed for restrictios o geeral traffic o the North ad South Quays ad i the College Gree area. The impositio of restrictios o geeral traffic will facilitate sigificat public realm itervetios at College Gree, St. Stephe s Gree ad Suffolk Street. Wider footpaths o Westmorelad Street ad o O Coell Bridge will provide a much improved pedestria eviromet. Ivestmet i cycle ways will esure that the city core is more suitable ad safer for cyclig. The proposals for dedicated public trasport iterchages at Heusto Statio, Coolly Statio/Busáras ad D Olier Street are desiged to icrease the umbers of people who ca access the city cetre by public trasport by facilitatig quick ad easy chages from oe public trasport service to aother. Icreases i Dart services ad the routig of trais via the Phoeix Park Tuel to Coolly Statio as well as icreases i the bus fleet will provide more frequet ad reliable rail ad bus services. The NTA has committed 150 millio to fud the delivery of the proposals set out i the Study. This is i additio to the 368 millio already committed to the Luas Cross City project ad other city cetre projects such as rail improvemet ad bus fleet ivestmet. The deadlie for submissios o the public cosultatio o the Study has ow bee exteded to 7th August 2015 ad to date almost 1,200 submissios have bee received, with 3 i 4 people agreeig with the proposals. See for more details o the Study ad how to make a submissio. 14 //

15 ecoomy ECONOMIC SCORECARD dubli: ecoomic scorecard q Note: These petrol gauge charts preset the performace of the particular idicator relative to a rage of performaces from most positive (gree) to least positive (red). Each gauge presets the latest value compared to the peak value ad the trough value over the last decade (except for public trasport trips which cover the past 5 years). busiess pmi q uemploymet rate q cosumer setimet q moth movig average (SA) airport arrivals april 2015 % (sa) idex (2003 = 100) (SA) trasport seaport cargo q public trasport trips q , '000s/moth (sa) residetial rets q millio toes/quarter (SA) residetial property residetial property price idex may 2015 millio trips/quarter (SA) Housig Completios March ,160 1, ,300 1,090 1, ,020 1,161 1, ,800 2,180 /moth idex 2005 = 100 uits/moth (sa) commercial property dubli city cetre office ret q dubli 2/4 office vacacy rate q dubli suburbs office vacacy rate q /sq.m. % % // 15

16 Your First Stop Shop for Local Eterprise Developmet The Local Eterprise Office is the First Stop Shop for ayoe seekig iformatio ad support o startig or growig a busiess i Dubli. The LEO offer a wide rage of experiece, skills ad services to promote etrepreeurship, foster busiess ad start-ups to develop existig micro ad small busiesses. The supports rage from busiess advice, metorig, traiig, busiess etworkig opportuities to fiacial assistace for certai types of busiess. Let s talk busiess Oifig Fiotair Áitiúil Local Eterprise Office Tel: /dublicity Tel: /dlr Tel: /figal Tel: /southdubli Europea Uio Europea Regioal Developmet Fud