An Empirical Study on the Contribution of Foreign Trade to the Economic Growth of Jiangxi Province, China

Transcription

1 usiess, 21, 2, doi:1.4236/ib Published Olie Jue 21 ( 183 A Empirical Study o the Cotributio of Foreig Trade to the Ecoomic Growth of Jiagxi Provice, Chia uhog Li 1,2, Zhogwe Che 2, Xiaoyi Wag 3 1 College of Ecoomics ad Maagemet, Huazhog Agricultural Uiversity, Wuha, Chia; 2 Busiess School, Jiggagsha Uiversity, Ji a, Chia; 3 College of Sciece, Huazhog Agricultural Uiversity, Wuha, Chia. wxywxq@126.com Received March 19 th, 21; revised April 2 th, 21; accepted May 22 d, 21. ABSTRACT I ope ecoomy, developmet of foreig trade greatly impacts o growth. Adaptig simple regressio for researchig the relatioship betwee foreig trade icludig total export ad total import ad growth of Jiagxi provice, with the collected 3-year statistical data from 1978 to 27. The result idicates that foreig trade has cotributed a lot to the growth of foreig trade ad still has great potetial to be tapped. There is a positive correlatio betwee the foreig trade ad. Ad import has iflueced Jiagxi provice s ecoomic growth more ad more. Fially, the paper poits out that i order to maitai the ecoomic growth, Jiagxi must uswervigly implemet the opeig-up policy ad be aware of trade protectioism. Keywords: Foreig Trade, Cotributio, Simpler Regressio 1. Itroductio Sice the reform ad opeig up, Chia s foreig trade, which is playig a sigificat role i the world, has become more ad more importat [1]. But the proportio of Chia's total import volume i the ca ot match the average level of the developed coutries. Obviously, the foreig trade is closely related to ecoomic growth i Chia. The importace of foreig trade for a coutry is icreasigly promiet, though there are may researches related to cotributio that foreig trade to growth, researches particularly focus o oe provice or regio is ot commo. Sice the reform ad opeig up, foreig trade i Jiagxi provice has experieced rapid developmet. From 1978 to 27, exports ad imports i Jiagxi provice icreased from 75.7 millio dollars to billio dollars [2].The icrease of foreig trade is faster tha the icrease of, ad the proportio of foreig trade i is icreasig too. Therefore, this paper attempts to study o the cotributio that foreig trade to growth i Jiagxi provice sice the reform ad opeig up. May domestic scholars aalyze foreig trade s cotributio to growth by studyig the stimulatig effect of et export. I four-sector ecoomy, ΔGNP ΔC ΔI ΔG (ΔX - ΔM) That s to say the GNP icremet ( GNP) equals the sum of cosumptio icremet ( C) ad ivestmet icremet ( I) ad the govermet expediture icremet ( G) ad the gross export icremet ( X M). Therefore, the percetage of icrease of growth caused by foreig trade equals the product of growth ad the cotributio degree of foreig trade to growth. Ad the cotributio degree of foreig trade to growth equals the quotiet of the et export icremet divided by the growth icremet. There is certai shortcomig i this method, which partially takes Keyes s view ad simply regards import as a out leakage of to attai the result that import has egative effect o growth [3]. However, trade theory ad practice proves that both import ad export promote the atioal ecoomy welfare ad ecoomic growth. For example, the import of cheap commodities ca decrease productio cost ad icrease cosumers welfare, ad the import of capital goods ad techology ca promote the techological progress ad improve labor productivity [4]. Therefore, we caot simply cosider oly foreig trade export or et exports to the atioal ecoomy ad the ifluece of foreig trade should

2 184 Foreig Trade to the Ecoomic Growth of Jiagxi Provice, Chia be from the aspects of atioal ecoomic role i promotig the comprehesive aalysis ad evaluatio. Therefore, the followig will get dow o each total foreig trade volume idex, amely, the gross foreig trade (import ad export), the gross import, the gross export ad the et foreig trade (the balace of export ad import)o aalysis of several aspects of. As a result, both import ad export should be cosidered i research to evaluate their ifluece o atioal ecoomy separately. This paper aalyzes cotributio of foreig trade to growth from the perspective of foreig trade volume, import volume, export volume ad the et export volume respectively. The geeral idea of this paper is to use multivariate liear regressio aalysis method i ecoometrics, takig idices related to foreig trade as repressors ad as explaied variable i this model. The use SPSS 11.5 ad Excel 27 for statistical aalysis i order to test foreig trade s cotributio to growth of Jiagxi provice. 2. The Costructio of Model 2.1 Hypothesis Differet idices related to foreig trade cotribute to growth i differet degree. 2.2 The Costructio of Simple Regressio Fuctio A A1X ε where refers to the explaied variable related to growth. X is the variable related to foreig trade. A is the costat; A 1 is coefficiet which stads for the degree of variable s icrease caused by each uit s icrease of explaiig variables. As differet idices are discussed i this paper separately, simple regressio aalysis is eough i the research. Takig statistic data from 1978 to 27 of Jiagxi provice as sample, this paper aalyzes foreig trade s cotributio to growth i Jiagxi provice from four aspects icludig foreig trade volume, import volume, export volume ad et export. 3. Costructio ad Test of Ecoometric Model 3.1 Foreig Trade Volume s Cotributio I order to reveal the total foreig trade s cotributio to, this paper aalyzes the ratio of depedece o foreig trade ad relatio coefficiet betwee foreig trade ad The Ratio of Depedece o Foreig Trade The ratio of depedece o foreig trade is the ratio of total foreig trade i, which reveals the depedecy of a coutry s ecoomy ad the ope level of the coutry s market. Therefore, Ratio of depedece o foreig trade = total foreig trade/ The result figured out accordig to the statistic data of foreig trade from 1978 to 27 i Jiagxi provice shows that the ratio of depedece o foreig trade i Jiagxi provice, which has a overall icreasig tred (see Figure 1), icreased from 1.22% i 1978 to 12.67% i 27. That s to say, the ecoomic growth of Jiagxi provice relies o the growth of foreig trade volume to a certai degree Correlated Coefficiet ad Regressio Based o above aalysis ad data, it ca be foud that there is liear correlatio betwee foreig trade volume ad. The followig part aalyzes foreig trade volume s cotributio to from the aspect of geeral correlatio coefficiet. The equatio is (x, y) ρxy, σ xσ y σ x (Xi - Ux ) ; 2 (i - Uy) (Xi - U x)(i - U y) σy ; Cov(x, y) Based o the statistical data, the author aalyzes the foreig trade volume of Jiagxi provice from 1978 to 27, ad attais the geeral correlatio coefficiet ρ =.97196, so there is strict correlatio betwee foreig trade volume ad. However, how much has foreig trade volume stimulated? Usig geeral least square techique estimatio to do further regressio aalysis, before which T test ad F test are carried o. Suppose stads for the total, ad XM stads for the total foreig trade volume. The result of the regressio aalysis is show as the followig: = XM R 2 =.927 F = > F.5 = 4.2 Figure 1. The tred of depedecy of Jiagxi s o foreig trade 2

3 Foreig Trade to the Ecoomic Growth of Jiagxi Provice, Chia 185 positive correlatio betwee Jiagxi provice s foreig trade volume ad, ad the fittig degree show as Figure 2, i which the purple lie represets the regressio lie ad X represets total foreig trade, is very good, which meas that the expasio of foreig trade ca promote ecoomic growth; (2) the regressio coefficiet of total ad foreig trade is 8.276, which meas that every US $ 1 icrease i foreig trade ca icrease US $ i, ad the margial outputs of foreig trade is quite high. It further verifies the importace of developig foreig trade. 3.2 Correlatio betwee Export Volume ad Ratio of Depedece o Export The ratio of depedece o export refers to the degree that a coutry s atioal ecoomy relies o export. That is the proportio of export i, which ca be attaied i the formula: Ratio of depedece o export = export/total Based o the statistical data, we have figured out the ratio of depedece o export icreasig from.88% i 1978 to 7.3% i 27 i Jiagxi provice. It reached the peak i 27 particularly. That s to say, the degree that ecoomic growth of Jiagxi provice relies o the growth of foreig trade volume is overall icreasig, especially durig 1978 to Correlated Coefficiet ad Regressio Aalysis Suppose stads for the total, ad X stads for export. Usig geeral least square techique estimatio to do further regressio aalysis o the bases of the certai data, ad the result is show as the followig: = X R 2 =.93 F = > F.5 = 4.2 positive correlatio betwee Jiagxi provice s export ad, ad the fittig degree show as Figure 3, i which the purple lie represets the regressio lie ad X represets export, is very good, which meas that the expasio of export ca promote ecoomic growth; (2) the regressio coefficiet of total ad export is 14.42, which meas that every US $ 1 icrease i export ca icrease US $ i, ad the margial outputs of export is quite high. It proves the ratioality of export-led ecoomy. 3.3 Correlatio betwee Import Volume ad Ratio of Depedece o Import Similar to the ratio of depedece o exports, the ratio of depedece o import refers to the degree that a coutry s atioal ecoomy relies o import. That is the proportio of import i, which ca be attaied i the formula: Ratio of depedece o import = import/total Based o the statistical data, we have figured out the ratio of depedece o export i Jiagxi provice icreasig from.34% i 1978 to 5.37% i 27. It reaches the peak i 27 particularly. That s to say, the degree that ecoomic growth of Jiagxi provice relies o the growth of foreig trade volume is still overall icreasig, but import falls i some years due to certai reasos Correlated Coefficiet ad Regressio Aalysis Suppose stads for the total, ad M stads for import. Usig geeral least square techique estimatio to do further regressio aalysis o the bases of the certai data, ad the result is show as the followig: = M R 2 =.94F = > F.5 = 4.2 positive correlatio betwee Jiagxi provice s import ad, ad the fittig degree show as Figure 4, i which the purple lie represets the regressio lie ad X represets import, is very good; (2) The regressio coefficiet of total ad import is 18.89, which meas Figure 2. The fittig effect of ad foreig trade volume Figure 3. The fittig effect of ad export

4 186 Foreig Trade to the Ecoomic Growth of Jiagxi Provice, Chia that every US $ 1 icrease i import ca icrease US $ i, ad the margial outputs of export is quite high. It shows that Jiagxi provice is performig well i import ad i order to achieve the objective of opeig up, the import should be further ecouraged. 3.4 Correlatio betwee Net Export Volume ad I order to study the fial factor of foreig trade cotributed to ecoomy, the paper aalyzes the et export too. Accordig to = F (K, L, X M), the et export obviously promote ecoomy. The et export is represeted by (X M), Usig geeral least square techique estimatio to do further regressio aalysis, ad the result is show as the followig: = (X M) R 2 =.7F = > F.5 = 4.2 positive correlatio betwee Jiagxi provice s et export volume ad, ad the fittig degree show as Figure 5, i which the purple lie represets the regressio lie ad X represets et export, is very good, which meas that the expasio of et export ca promote ecoomic growth; (2) the regressio coefficiet of total ad et export is , which meas that every US $ 1 icrease i foreig trade ca icrease US $ i, ad the margial outputs of foreig trade is remarkable high. That s to say, Jiagxi could pursue trade surplus Figure 4. The Fittig Effect of ad Import Figure 5. The fittig effect of ad et export aimlessly. It ca help to accumulate the capital ad foreig exchage deposit so that to ehace higher speed of ecoomic growth. 4. Coclusio ad Discussio 1) The empirical study suggests that the total foreig trade volume, the import volume, the export volume ad the et export volume all have strict correlatio ship with Chiese Jiagxi Provice s. Oe should be paid more attetio to is that the correlatio betwee import ad is bigger tha that betwee export ad. That is to say, import plays better tha export i stimulatig growth. This result tells us that Jiagxi could ot igore the impact of import o stimulatig ecoomy while ehacig export, ad the cotributio of import to growth at ay time, or restrict the import to pursue foreig exchage deposit, ad could ot follow America to buy CHINA either. 2) With deepeig the reform ad opeig-up, the rate of foreig trade depedece is becomig bigger icreasigly; the correlatio betwee ad export as well as import is ehaced year by year. Although the improvemet of foreig trade i Jiagxi to growth is less tha that i some of easter provices, Jiagxi, as a ier provice, without geography locatio advatage, its export-led ecoomy still has a woderful future as log as it ca make the most of each kid of resources. 3) Keyes, a famous ecoomist, ever said: export is for better import. That is to say, export is to provide with better situatio to support importig what we do t have or more efficiet products. As a ier provice, though Jiagxi ca make the most of its resources ad improve its employmet rate, it could ot restrict import while expadig export. Otherwise, it will slow dow the speed of improvig the livig level of the people i Jiagxi. Simultaeously, it will be harm for the effective use of global resources ad for the itegratio as well. While, future research should be proceeded. As beig kow that liear regressio is based o the hypothesis that the liear relatioship betwee foreig trade ad ecoomic growth is true, but i fact, it may be ot perfect to research the above issue. So we should adapt more advaced methods for researchig the casualties betwee foreig trade ad ecoomic growth. Whether there exists log time or short term stable causalities could be further researched i the future. 5. Ackowledegmets This paper is assisted by the projects: Jiagxi provicial Co-operated Social Sciece Projects, A Study o the Developmet of Service Idustry ad Trade i Service i Jiagxi Provice (Project ID: 9J249) ad A Research o the Evolutio of the Spatial Ecoomy i Jiagxi ad Agglomeratio of Idustry (Project ID: 9J245); A

5 Foreig Trade to the Ecoomic Growth of Jiagxi Provice, Chia 187 Study o the Developmet of Logistics i Ji'a City Based o the Theory of Idustry Cluster (Project ID: JR816). REFERENCES [1] J. Li, A Study o the Foreig Trade durig Chiese Ecoomy Growth, Ph. D. Dissertatio, College of Ecoomics, Jili Uiversity, Jue 26. [2] Chia Statistic Bureau, Chia Statistics ear Book, Chia Statistics Press, Beijig, 28. [3] X. P. Liu, A Empirical Study o Chiese Import ad Export ad Ecoomic Growth-Research the Improvemet of Foreig Trade to Ecoomic Growth from the Growth Rate, Joural of Moder Ecoomic Sciece, Vol. 3, 21, pp [4] X. M. Wag, The All-Side Aalysis of New Iteratioal Trade, People s Uiversity of Chia Press, Beijig, Jauary 2.