LABOUR MARKET OCCUPATIONAL FORECASTS

Transcription

1 INVEST. BUILD. GROW MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET OCCUPATIONAL FORECASTS SUMMARY FINDINGS The findings in this report are based on labour market supply and demand projections for Manitoba occupations at the one-digit 2011 National Occupational Classification (NOC) level. manitoba.ca/lmi

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 2 RÉSUMÉ... 4 CHAPTER 1: MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY FINDINGS, 2017 to Introduction Manitoba s Labour Sources of Labour Job Openings by Occupation Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training High-demand Occupations by Industry Sector Manitoba s Labour Supply Labour Force Outlook Labour Force Participation Sources of Labour Supply Gaps: Labour less Labour Supply CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOKS Introduction International, National and Provincial Economies International and National Outlook Provincial Review and Outlook Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba SECINC s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba s 2016 Custom Projection National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status National Labour Market Manitoba s Labour Market Population CHAPTER 3: SECINC FORECASTING MODEL Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts i

4 APPENDICES Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba s Future Labour Force, 2016 to Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011 level, Supply and 2016 to Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC level, 2017 to Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the Four-digit NOC level, 2017 to CHART LIST Chart 1: Manitoba Labour 2017 to Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source 2017 to Chart 3: Occupation Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Replacement and Expansion 2017 to Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level 2017 to Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected 2016 to Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected to Chart 7: Sources of Labour Force Change, Manitoba 2017 to Chart 8: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate, Manitoba 2017 to Chart 9: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected 2016 to Chart 10: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected 2016 to Chart 11: Manitoba Age Distribution Change 2016 to ii Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

5 TABLE LIST Table 1: Manitoba Job Openings by One-digit NOC and Source, 2017 to Table 2: Manitoba Job Openings by Two-digit NOC and Source, 2017 to Table 3: Manitoba Job Openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2017 to Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2017 to Table 5: Labour and Supply Gap Indicators, 2017 to Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness, 2017 to Table 7: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators, 2017 to Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+), 2012 to Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts iii

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7 Preface The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report is produced by Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade. We acknowledge the assistance, feedback and support from other Manitoba government departments consulted, as well as the external stakeholders who played a role in validating results. We would like specifically to acknowledge the assistance of the Alliance of Manitoba Sector Councils (AMSC), Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, Manitoba Hydro and the following provincial government departments: Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Finance. The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report 2017 to 2023 identifies expected trends for the labour market. The report helps to improve our understanding of the state of Manitoba s labour market and the key issues involved in achieving future labour market goals. It has been developed as a tool to support workforce policy and programming. The information presented in this report provides a scenario on the future demand of occupations across industry sectors and describes the supply of workers required to meet this demand. The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on the work of Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade with Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC). SECINC senior economists have created an occupation model that simulates the effect of changes in market conditions and enables clients to produce an annual provincial forecast of labour market supply and demand by occupation. In 2016, SECINC used this occupation model to create a custom projection of Manitoba s labour force, with results for the seven years between 2017 and 2023 provided in this report. It provides a quantitative assessment of Manitoba s occupation demand forecast and supply requirements, including new entrants, international immigrants, interprovincial migrants and inter-occupation migrants, over the next seven years. While the results of Manitoba s custom projection offer an internally-consistent and comprehensive picture of the occupational labour markets across Manitoba, it is cautioned that precise conclusions should not be drawn on small samples, occupations or industry groups. Occupations with fewer people will have less reliable information than those with more people. The projection results should be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. For example, while some Manitoba occupations are forecasted to see a higher demand for workers than others, estimates of precise numeric demand for workers in a given year of the forecast scenario should be treated with caution. Further, while the projection provides an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, it is not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities. Within occupations, there may be unique conditions that are not captured in the analysis. Economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time. Despite best efforts, actual conditions may differ from those presented in this report. The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report and the results of Manitoba s custom projection are intended to complement existing work on occupation projection and forecasting, including the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for particular industries by sector councils, government departments and other groups. While the approaches and purposes of various projection models may differ, Manitoba officials will continue to engage these groups to understand the differences and build consistencies where feasible. Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Manitoba economy will see a total of 166,500 job openings between 2017 and 2023, with 68 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths. The forecasts predict approximately 23,800 total job openings per year. Manitoba s economy will see 163,500 new workers join the labour force between 2017 and 2023, or approximately 23,400 workers a year. Manitoba s unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.3 percentage points between 2017 and After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba s economy is expected to grow by an average of 1.5 per cent annually from 2017 to Manitoba s labour market is expected to lift hourly labour income by an average of 2.0 per cent annually over the next seven years. Over the same period, this is expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.2 per cent annually. Total Labour A total of 166,500 job openings will be created between 2017 and Job openings in business, finance and administration occupations are estimated at 27,400 or 16.5 per cent; and occupations in education, law and social, community and government services at 23,800 or 14.3 per cent. Within the sales and service occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups: cleaners, retail salespersons, and food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations. For all occupation groups, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. However, in occupations in Health and Sales and Service, expansion demand almost equals replacement demand. With regard to educational requirements, of the 166,500 forecasted job openings over the seven-year period, approximately 62 per cent are forecasted to require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, university, trade certification). The remaining 38 per cent may not necessitate post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements. Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic growth) is forecasted to create 53,900 job openings (32 per cent of the total). Replacement demand (job openings from retirements and deaths) is forecasted to create 112,600 job openings (68 per cent of the total). The occupation group with the most expected job openings is sales and service at 32,000 or 19.2 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. 2 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

9 Total Labour Supply It is forecasted that there will be an additional 163,500 workers over the forecast period to offset the total labour demand. The additional supply is forecasted to consist of 92,500 new entrants, 38,000 net in-migrants and 33,000 net other in-mobility workers. With 163,500 workers joining the labour force and 112,600 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 50,900 persons over the forecast period. Gaps in versus Supply Overall, Manitoba s labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, with the overall supply for labour adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages or surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of the province. Why do the numbers change? As the economy changes, the macro-economic assumptions and data underlying this report are updated regularly with the best data available at the time. For example, economic changes like the oil-price decrease of 2014/15 and ongoing, weaker than expected domestic economic performance, have widespread implications for the labour market in Manitoba, Canada and around the world. In addition, with every update of the report, it covers a new seven-year period. As a result, direct comparison of the labour supply and demand forecasts year-over-year is not advised. Please see Chapter 3 and Appendix 1 for more on the methodology and macro-economic assumptions behind this report. In each year from 2017 to 2023, labour supply exceeds labour demand by an average of 6,100 workers. While the gap is more significant in 2017 and 2018, with an average of 7,400, it closes to about 5,600 over the last five years of the forecast period, with supply estimated to outpace demand by 5,800 workers in Over the forecast period, total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 3,100 workers. The unemployment rate is expected to be highest in 2017 and then continue to decrease over the forecast period as labour demand grows slightly faster than supply from 2017 onward. Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

10 RÉSUMÉ L économie manitobaine verra l ouverture d un total de emplois au cours de la période , dont 68 pour cent en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès. Selon les prévisions, le nombre total d emplois à pourvoir par année sera d environ L économie manitobaine verra nouveaux travailleurs se joindre à la population active pendant la période , soit environ travailleurs par an. Le taux de chômage au Manitoba devrait diminuer, passant de 6,1 pour cent en 2017 à 5,8 pour cent en Après le rajustement pour l inflation, l économie du Manitoba devrait connaître une croissance moyenne de 1,5 pour cent par an durant la période Sur le marché du travail manitobain, le revenu horaire du travail devrait augmenter de 2,0 pour cent par an en moyenne au cours des sept prochaines années. Pendant cette même période, on s attend à une augmentation moyenne de 3,2 pour cent par an du revenu personnel au Manitoba. e totale de main-d œuvre Un total de emplois seront ouverts à l embauche entre 2017 et Selon les prévisions, la demande d expansion (c est-à-dire, le besoin de nouveaux postes causé par la croissance économique) devrait ouvrir emplois (soit 32 pour cent du total). La demande de remplacement (emplois ouverts en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès) devrait quant à elle créer ouvertures de poste (68 pour cent du total). Le groupe professionnel qui devrait connaître le plus nombre d ouvertures de poste est celui de la vente et des services avec postes à pourvoir, soit 19,2 pour cent du total des emplois qui seront offerts au Manitoba. Dans le domaine des affaires, des finances et de l administration, on estime qu il y aura postes à pourvoir (soit 16,5 pour cent). Dans le domaine de l éducation, du droit et des services sociaux, communautaires ou gouvernementaux, ce chiffre s élèvera à emplois (soit 14,3 pour cent). Au sein du groupe professionnel de la vente et des services, la plus grande partie des offres d emploi devrait avoir lieu dans les sous-groupes suivants : nettoyeurs, vendeurs de commerce de détail, serveurs et serveuses au comptoir, aides de cuisine et personnel assimilé. Pour la période envisagée, la demande de remplacement est plus importante que la demande d expansion dans tous les groupes professionnels. On note cependant que, dans le domaine de la santé ainsi que dans celui des ventes et des services, la demande d expansion est presque égale à la demande de remplacement. En ce qui concerne les exigences relatives au niveau de scolarité, pendant la période de sept années envisagée, environ 62 pour cent des offres d emploi prévues devraient nécessiter un certain niveau de formation et d études postsecondaires (p. ex. un diplôme collégial ou universitaire ou un certificat professionnel). Les 38 pour cent restants ne nécessiteront peut-être pas d études ou de formations postsecondaires, mais pourraient demander une formation spécifique à l emploi ou une formation en cours d emploi. 4 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2017 à 2023

11 Offre totale de main-d œuvre Il devrait y avoir travailleurs additionnels au cours de la période envisagée pour contrebalancer la demande totale de main-d œuvre. L offre supplémentaire de main-d œuvre devrait se ventiler comme suit : personnes faisant leur entrée sur le marché du travail, un total net de personnes provenant de la migration et un total net de personnes provenant de la mobilité de la main-d œuvre. Étant donné que nouveaux travailleurs se joindront à la population active et que postes deviendront vacants en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès, la population active du Manitoba devrait s accroitre de travailleurs pendant la période envisagée. Écarts entre l offre et la demande Dans l ensemble, le marché du travail du Manitoba devrait demeurer équilibré au cours de la période envisagée, avec une offre globale de main-d œuvre en mesure de répondre à la demande du marché du travail. Toutefois, il pourrait y avoir une pénurie ou un excédent de main-d œuvre pour certaines professions et dans certaines régions de la province. Chaque année entre 2017 et 2023, l offre de main-d œuvre devrait être supérieure à la demande, soit en moyenne travailleurs de plus que d emplois offerts. Bien que l écart soit plus important en 2017 et 2018, avec une différence moyenne de travailleurs de plus que d emplois, la différence baisse à environ au cours des cinq dernières années de la période envisagée, et on s attend à ce que l offre dépasse la demande de travailleurs en Au cours de la période visée, la croissance de la demande totale de main-d œuvre dépassera la croissance de l offre totale de main-d œuvre de travailleurs. Le taux de chômage devrait culminer en 2017, puis continuer à diminuer tout au long de la période envisagée au fur et à mesure que la demande de maind œuvre s accroît légèrement plus rapidement que l offre de main-d œuvre à partir de Dans l ensemble, le taux de chômage devrait baisser, passant de 6,1 pour cent en 2017 à 5,8 pour cent en Pourquoi les chiffres changent-ils? Au fur et à mesure que l économie évolue, les hypothèses et données macroéconomiques qui sous-tendent le présent rapport sont mises à jour régulièrement en utilisant les meilleurs chiffres existant à chaque moment. Par exemple, les changements économiques tels que la baisse du prix du pétrole en et la performance économique nationale inférieure aux prévisions ont des répercussions importantes sur le marché du travail au Manitoba, au Canada et dans le monde entier. D autre part, chaque mise à jour du rapport couvre une nouvelle période de sept ans. De ce fait, il n est pas recommandé de comparer directement l approvisionnement et la demande de main-d œuvre d une année à l autre. Veuillez veuillez consulter le chapitre 3 et l annexe 1 pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie et les hypothèses macroéconomiques utilisées dans ce rapport. Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2017 à

12 Chapter 1: Manitoba Labour Market Outlook Summary Findings, 2017 to Introduction In this chapter, the summary findings from Manitoba s custom projection are reviewed and the overall outlook for Manitoba s labour market is presented based on a number of indicators. These include the expected number of future job openings as well as labour demand and supply by occupational group. Based on these indicators, an estimate for future training requirements and occupational and skill demands is provided. The model used to produce Manitoba s custom workforce outlook starts with the use of macroeconomic models of the province s economy to create an outlook for Manitoba s economic performance and then estimates the number and sources of workers required considering the province s expected future economic and demographic performance. Finally, it explores possible sources for these requirements and the number of workers needed from those sources to meet these future requirements. The possibility of labour shortages is identified by examining the supply sources to determine if it is possible to achieve the required supply from these sources. For example, the model estimates the number of young people leaving the education system required to meet future supply needs from this source. If there is insufficient capacity to provide education and training to a sufficient number of individuals, there will be a shortage of workers. An important difference in this approach from that adopted by other models is that the occupational projections contained in this report provide an estimated amount of immigration required to meet labour market needs, rather than setting an assumption for migration that is not directly linked to the expected future performance of the economy. Workforce demand and supply at the aggregate level adjusts over time to meet labour requirements. The glossary of terms below describes some of the key concepts throughout the Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts report. Glossary Job openings = expected change in workforce demand over a specific time period Expansion demand = determined by changes in economic performance that lead to changes in employment and the amount of excess workers required to meet normal turnover in the workforce Replacement demand = job openings created by people retiring from the labour force or dying, influenced by the aging of the population New entrants = people between 15 and 30 years old joining the workforce for the first time after completing their education Deaths and retirements = these subtract from the labour force Net in-migration = people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job Net other mobility = all other sources of labour force change, including people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force and changes in participation rates Net in-mobility = net in-migration plus net other mobility, which can add to or subtract from the labour force 6 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

13 1.2 Manitoba s Labour The outlook for labour demand in the economic model is determined by the expected growth of the economy, along with the impact of changing market conditions. For example, changes in the cost of labour relative to that for capital will have an effect on the demand for workers. Tightening labour markets raise wages relative to capital costs, causing employers to substitute capital for workers. The model also considers the impact of migration on economic growth and labour market activity, as well as assumptions about trend growth in productivity that impacts the need for workers. Labour demand in Manitoba is projected to grow to 720,000 jobs in 2023 an increase of 53,900 jobs, through expansion and replacement demand. Over the forecast period, this means an estimated 8.1 per cent growth in labour demand, or an average of 1.1 per cent each year. Thousands Chart 1: Manitoba Labour 2017 to Sources of Labour New jobs created as a result of economic growth are referred to as expansion demand. Expansion demand is expected to be strongest in 2019 and 2020, when it is forecasted to be 8,300 and 8,800 respectively. In addition to the expansion demand of 53,900, people exiting the labour market on account of retirements and deaths (replacement demand) will result in an additional 112,600 job openings between 2017 and In four of the seven years over the forecast period, replacement demand is expected to be more than twice as high as the job openings expected due to expansion demand. Overall, expansion plus replacement demand are projected to result in a total of 166,500 job openings between 2017 and Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

14 Number 30,000 Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source 2017 to ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Deaths Retirements Expansion Job Openings by Occupation The occupation group with the highest number of projected job openings is sales and service at 32,000 or 19.2 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. This is followed by business, finance and administration occupations at 27,400 or 16.5 per cent; and occupations in education, law and social, community and government services at 23,800 or 14.3 per cent. Together, these three occupation groups account for 50 per cent of total projected job openings. The occupation group with the fewest projected job openings is natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations with only 1,600 projected job openings over the forecast period. Analysis of job openings by more detailed three digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes show that within sales and service occupations, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation subgroups: cleaners retail salespersons food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations 8 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

15 Similarly, within the business, finance and administration occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups: administrative and regulatory occupations general office workers office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical Within occupations in education, law and social, community and government services, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups: secondary and elementary school teachers and educational counselors paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services home care providers and educational support occupations Refer to Appendix 3 for job openings by threedigit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of data pertaining to smaller occupation groups. As Chart 3 illustrates, for all occupation groups, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. Approximately 68 per cent of projected new job openings are due to replacement demand (retirements and deaths), which will affect recruitment in all occupation groups. Expansion demand, or new jobs that result from economic growth, will account for 32 per cent of the 166,500 total job openings over the forecast period. Comparing occupational groups, all net gains in job openings in occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations are the result of replacement demand because expansion demand in this occupational group is negative. Sales and Service occupations (51 per cent) and Health occupations (54 per cent) have the highest share of openings due to replacement demand amongst occupational groups. Table 1 shows projected job openings between 2017 and 2023 for the 10 major occupation groups based on the 2011 NOC codes (one-digit level). Table 2 presents the same information by more detailed occupation groupings (NOC codes at the two-digit level). Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

16 Chart 3: Occupational Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Replacement and Expansion to 2023 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Sales and service occupations Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services Health occupations Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Business, finance and administration occupations Management occupations -5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Number of Workers Expansion Replacement 10 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

17 Table 1: Job openings by One-digit NOC and Source to 2023 Expansion Replacement Total job openings Replacement demand % Management occupations 3,500 19,900 23, % Business, finance and administration occupations Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 8,100 19,300 27, % 2,200 5,500 7, % Health occupations 8,500 9,900 18, % Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 9,900 13,900 23, % 1,500 2,000 3, % Sales and service occupations 15,600 16,400 32, % Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 3,600 17,500 21, % ,800 1, % 1,300 6,200 7, % Total 54, , , % Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

18 Table 2: Job openings by Two-digit NOC and Source to 2023 Expansion Replacement demand Total hiring demand Senior management occupations 500 1,900 2,400 Specialized middle management occupations 1,800 5,400 7,200 Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services Middle management occupations in trades, transport, production and utilities 2,100 5,300 7, ,200 6,300 Professional occupations in business and finance 1,000 2,700 3,700 Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 2,600 7,400 10, ,500 2,100 Office support occupations 2,900 5,500 8,400 Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences 900 2,300 3,200 1,200 2,600 3,800 1,000 2,900 3,900 Professional occupations in nursing 3,100 3,700 6,800 Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 1,300 1,500 2,800 Technical occupations in health 1,500 2,100 3,600 Assisting occupations in support of health services 2,600 2,700 5,300 Professional occupations in education services 2,700 4,700 7,400 Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 1,600 2,500 4,100 2,700 2,800 5,500 Occupations in front-line public protection services ,200 Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations 2,500 3,100 5,600 Continued on next page. 12 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

19 Expansion Replacement demand Total hiring demand Professional occupations in art and culture 700 1,000 1,700 Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations Service supervisors and specialized service occupations Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations 800 1,000 1,800 1,000 1,800 2,800 2,500 2,400 4,900 2,600 3,200 5,800 2,900 3,200 6,100 Sales support occupations 2,300 1,300 3,600 Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c.* 4,400 4,400 8,800 Industrial, electrical and construction trades 300 6,000 6,300 Maintenance and equipment operation trades 900 4,200 5,100 Other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers Processing, manufacturing and utilities supervisors and central control operators Processing and manufacturing machine operators and related production workers 500 1,200 1,700 1,500 5,100 6, ,000 1, , ,500 1, ,000 2,900 Assemblers in manufacturing ,500 1,200 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 500 1,100 1,600 *n.e.c. not elsewhere classified Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

20 1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training It is projected that of the 166,500 forecasted job openings, approximately 103,400 positions (62 per cent) will require some post-secondary education and training (e.g. college, trade certification, university). These positions are managerial and professional occupations, classified at NOC 2011 skill level 0/A, or technical and skilled occupations at NOC 2011 skill level B. The remaining 38 per cent of projected job openings, or 63,100 positions, may not require post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements. The majority of these job openings are intermediate, clerical and operator occupations (skill level C), which usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training. Elemental and labour occupations (skill level D), which usually require on-the-job training, make up a smaller portion. Chart 4 shows the total job openings outlook between NOC skill levels 0 and A combined, B, C and D for 2017 to Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level 2017 to ,100, 28% 16,000, 10% 53,800, 32% 49,600, 30% Managerial and Professional Usually Requiring a University Education Technical and Skilled Usually Requiring College or Apprenticeship Training Intermediate, Clerical and Operator Usually Requiring Secondary School and/or Occupation Specific Training Elemental and Labouring Usually Providing On the Job Training 14 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

21 Replacement demand is projected to be highest for the subgroup of managerial occupations at NOC Skill Level 0 with 85.2 per cent, while almost half of Elemental and Labouring occupation job openings will be due to expansion (48.9 per cent). In terms of total openings, the largest numbers of expansion demand-driven jobs are expected in skill level B and C at 14,500 and 16,500 respectively (refer to Table 3). Table 3: Job openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2017 to 2023 NOC Skill Levels Expansion demand Replacement demand Total job openings Replacement demand % NOC 0/A - Managerial and Professional 15,100 38,700 53, % NOC B - Technical and Skilled 14,500 35,100 49, % NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and operator 16,500 30,600 47, % NOC D - Elemental and Labouring 7,200 10,700 17, % Total 53, , , % High-demand occupations by Industry Sector Manitoba s occupational forecasting model estimates the number and sources of workers required to address the expected future economic and demographic performance of the province through the application of macroeconomic models. The projected demand for workers is also impacted by changing market conditions, for example the cost of labour relative to that for capital. Table 4 shows the occupations in each industry sector with the highest number of expected job openings created over the forecast period through both changes in economic performance (expansion demand) and through normal turnover in the workforce through retirements and deaths (replacement demand). Readers are cautioned against drawing precise conclusions based on individual occupations or industry groups. The projection results should instead be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. While these projections provide an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, they are not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities. Finally, there may be unique conditions within specific occupations that are not captured in the analysis, and economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time. Refer to Appendix 4 for job openings by fourdigit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data, particularly for smaller occupation groups. Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

22 Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,800 Managers in agriculture 2,800 Management Restaurant and food service managers 1,200 Manufacturing managers 1,000 Corporate sales managers 900 Administrative assistants 3,300 Business, Finance and Administration Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Health occupations Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services General office support workers 3,000 Administrative officers 3,000 Accounting and related clerks 1,800 Financial auditors and accountants 1,500 Information systems analysts and consultants 1,100 Computer programmers and interactive media developers 600 Computer network technicians 600 Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) User support technicians 400 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 6,600 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 4,600 Licensed practical nurses 1,000 Specialist physicians 700 Pharmacists 500 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 3,600 Early childhood educators and assistants 2,800 Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 2,800 Social and community service workers 2,200 Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 1, Continued on next page. 16 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

23 Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings Musicians and singers 400 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 400 Graphic designers and illustrators 300 Authors and writers 300 Painters, sculptors and other visual artists 300 Retail salespersons 4,600 Sales and service occupations Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Natural resources, agriculture and related occupations Occupations in manufacturing and utilities Light duty cleaners 2,700 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,600 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 2,500 Cooks 2,100 Transport truck drivers 3,800 Carpenters 1,600 Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers 1,400 Material handlers 1,300 Welders and related machine operators 1,200 Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 600 Underground production and development miners 300 Supervisors, mining and quarrying 200 Fishermen/women 100 General farm workers 100 Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 500 Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers Power engineers and power systems operators 500 Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

24 1.3 Manitoba s Labour Supply Labour Force Outlook The occupational forecasting model uses population estimates produced by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics combined with projected agespecific labour force participation rates produced by SECINC to project Manitoba s labour force. The model estimates Manitoba s labour force at 674,900 people in Manitoba has observed growth in the labour force over the past 10 years and is projected to see continued growth throughout the seven-year projection period. Over the forecast period, Manitoba s labour force is expected to grow by 50,900 people (7.5 per cent) to 725,800 people by This represents an average annual growth rate of 1.0 per cent, or an average of 7,300 persons per year. Within the projection period, Manitoba s labour force is expected to grow at the lowest rate in 2018 and 2022 (slightly below 1 per cent), while sitting between 1.0 and 1.1 per cent over the remainder of the forecast period. This slowed growth compared to previous years reflects an increase in the proportion of population in older age groups with lower labour force participation rates. Thousands (e) (f) Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected to (f) Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

25 1.3.2 Labour Force Participation Manitoba s overall labour force participation rate is projected to decline by 0.6 percentage points between 2017 and 2023, to 66.9 per cent. This slight decline reflects the combined effects of a recent downward trend in participation for more than half of the age-sex cohorts, particularly among age groups with the highest participation, and the increasing proportion of elders in the labour force population. Per cent Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected to Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

26 1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply Over the forecast period, Manitoba s labour market supply outlook estimates that approximately 92,500 new entrants, 38,000 net in-migrants and 33,000 net other mobility workers (for a total 163,500 workers) will be required due to people leaving the labour force due to deaths or retirements and to fill new jobs created as a result of economic growth. With 163,500 workers joining the labour force and 112,600 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 50,900 persons. The components of the projected change in Manitoba s labour force are: new entrants (persons entering the labour force for the first time), which add to the labour force deaths and retirements, which subtract from the labour force net in-mobility (net in-migration plus net other mobility), which can add or subtract from the labour force Net in-migration refers to people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job. Net other mobility includes all other sources of change in the labour force, such as people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force (e.g. after an illness) and changes in participation rates caused by increased wage rates or social factors (e.g. increased desire for people to enter the labour force). New entrants remain a consistent and significant component of the estimated supply over the forecast period, averaging about 13,200 per year. The labour force is projected to lose approximately 16,100 workers per year because of retirements and deaths. As a result, a steady growth in net in-migration over the period is projected to be required to meet job opening requirements. 20 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

27 Number of Workers 30,000 Chart 7: Sources of Labour Force Change 2017 to ,000 10, ,000-20, Net Other In-Mobility Net In-Migration New Entrants Retirements & Deaths Labour Force Change Per cent 67.6 Chart 8: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate 2017 to 2023 Per cent Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) 5.5 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

28 1.4 Gaps: Labour less Labour Supply Overall, the labour market is expected to remain generally balanced over the projection period, meaning the supply of labour will be adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages may exist for certain occupations and in local labour markets. Table 4 shows the gap between labour demand and labour supply for each year between 2017 and In all seven years of the projection period, labour supply in Manitoba is expected to be higher than labour demand. This gap between the supply of labour and labour demand averages 6,200 workers per year. The expected gap is highest for 2017 and 2018, before closing slightly to an average of 5,700 workers over the remainder of the forecast period. For each year of the forecast period, the gap between labour demand and supply as a percentage of the total labour force is small (ranging from 0.7 to 1.1 per cent) and therefore, the labour market is expected to remain relatively balanced. Table 5: Labour and Supply Gap Indicators, 2017 to 2023 Variable Labour Force 674, , , , , , ,000 Labour Force Supply 681, , , , , , ,800 Excess Supply Labour shortages by occupation groups Labour markets are expected to remain balanced for each of the 10 major occupational groups (one-digit NOC level). For all occupational groups, supply will exceed demand in all years of the projection period. It should be noted that this does not mean that shortages or surpluses may not exist for individual occupations within the broad occupation groups. The labour supply forecasting model is based on the assumption that the labour force for an occupation in the long run will be determined by the demand for the occupation. Labour supply adjusts to labour demand in various ways, including inter-occupation mobility and increased labour force participation rate (net other mobility). Between 2017 and 2023, net other mobility is forecasted to add 33,000 persons to Manitoba s labour supply. In other words, the model forecasts that the increased demand for labour over the next few years will be partly met with an increase in the number of Manitobans re-entering the labour force (higher labour force participation rates) and Manitobans moving to occupations in higher demand. If these assumptions are not met, more labour shortages could be expected. 22 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

29 Occupations with significant labour market tightness Methodology The occupational model used to create Manitoba s labour market occupational forecasts estimates the supply requirements needed to meet the demand for individual occupations. Accordingly, there are no significant shortages or persistent surpluses for the occupations in these projections and analysts should examine the estimated requirements to see if it is possible to achieve them. To assist in identifying potential areas of future labour market tightness, a ranking approach is employed to provide an indication of the relative risk or difficulty across occupations of obtaining their estimated supply requirements. This relative risk is referred to as a supply risk and originates from the fact that the supply requirements estimated by the models may not be forthcoming in reality. This ranking is not intended to indicate that an occupation with a relatively high supply risk will not obtain the required supply. Rather, it signals that there is a higher risk relative to other occupations. Four ranking measures are used to determine the supply risk. One focuses on demand, one on supply, one on the demand supply balance and the other is a combined rank that is a weighted average of the other ranks. The demand measure focuses on demand pressure as measured by the number of job openings for an occupation divided by the size of the occupation s labour force in the previous year, which is similar to the labour force growth rate for the occupation. If the demand growth for an occupation is high relative to that for other occupations, it will receive a higher rank as it will likely require relatively more effort to find the workers needed. The supply measure focuses on migration and is measured as the ratio of required net in-migration and the occupation s labour force in the previous year. Occupations where supply requirements are largely met through migration may be at risk if these requirements are not accommodated through additional immigration or if Canadian workers do not wish or are not available to move to the province. The third measure is the difference between an occupation s actual and normal unemployment rate, the unemployment rate gap. Occupations with negative unemployment rate gaps reflect tighter labour markets and vice-versa. There are three ranks numbered from 1 to 3 for each measure: Rank of 1: a situation where there are more than sufficient workers available to meet demand. pressure is lower than normal, there is less reliance than normal on migrants to fill jobs, and the unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the normal rate. It should be relatively easy to find workers; Rank of 2: represents a normal market situation where organizations can rely on their traditional methods for obtaining workers. pressure is normal, organizations may have to rely on migrants to meet supply, but this situation is not different from what they have faced in the past, and the unemployment rate gap is small; and Rank of 3: a type of market situation where demand pressure is quite strong, more emphasis than normal must be placed on organizations to access migrants to meet their worker requirements and the unemployment rate is below its normal rate. It will be relatively more difficult to find workers. It should be noted that it is important to consider the size of the occupations when using the supply risk results, as occupations with small sizes can produce ranks that may be misleading. Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts

30 For example, an occupation with a labour force of only 20 that sees its labour force increase to 40 shows a 100 per cent increase as the demand pressure measure. This would certainly put it near the top of occupations for supply risk through the demand pressure rank. The data provided in this report is accordingly restricted to occupations where the employment is 150. Results Labour market tightness may exist temporarily in an occupation for only a few consecutive years, for example because of anticipated major projects, and may disappear after completion. In some occupations however, labour market tightness may persist over a longer period of time, potentially due to rising numbers of retirements and deaths as the population ages. In order to identify occupations where more research may be required to address potential long-term supply risks, occupations with a weighted average combined rank of 3 in at least 2 years of the 7-year forecast period are highlighted in Table 5. For these occupations, the weighted average of the supply, demand and unemployment rate gap measures exceeds 2.5. As noted above, only occupations with at least 150 individuals employed in 2016 have been considered for the analysis. These occupations are likely to display a higher degree of demand pressure and relatively higher difficulty filling job openings over the forecast period compared to other occupations. In terms of industry sectors, natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations display the highest degree of relative labour market tightness over the forecast period, with 37.5 per cent of occupations showing high demand pressures in at least one year, followed by health occupations (19.4 per cent) and trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations with 15.0 per cent. Refer to Appendix 4 for labour market tightness rankings for each of the 7 years of the forecast period by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data. 24 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts