Les effets différenciés de la crise sur les travailleurs: discussion

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2 Les effets différenciés de la crise sur les travailleurs: discussion Christine Erhel CEE et Université Paris 1

3 Outline 1-Some empirical evidence and questions about socio-economic groups in the crisis in Europe (compared to the US) 2-Employment and social policies in a «postwelfare reform world»

4 1- The heterogeneity of crisis effects by social groups Taking unemployment variations as an indicator (as in H. Hoynes presentation), the European situation is close to the US: the most concerned by unemployment rise are youth, men, low educated and individuals born abroad. These results are confirmed when considering other labour market indicators (flows, trajectories from 2007 to 2009, ). Source: Eurostat, LFS

5 1- The heterogeneity of crisis effects by social groups But some some differences: crisis goes on after 2010 in Europe for all groups unemployment increases are more important when considering a longer time period (including debt crisis and austerity) Source: Eurostat, LFS

6 1- The heterogeneity of crisis effects by social groups And (maybe?) more variability: - throughout time : Compared to similar situation for youth and low qualified But it is different for seniors in most countries (increasing employment rates, although unemployment has also risen/to be related to policy changes), for women, and for intermediate and higher levels of qualification -across countries : inequalities facing the crisis are not homogeneous across Europe. Youth were hit more severely in the Euro area (esp. Southern countries), while almost no age gap in Germany or the Netherlands. As for women, taking into account their labour market trajectories (and not only U rate) also reveals important differences. Gender gap for persistent inactivity (over two years) is higher in Mediterranean countries.

7 1- The heterogeneity of crisis effects by social groups Source: LFS

8 1- The heterogeneity of crisis effects by social groups Explanations for these trends and cross country differences? - Labour supply effects (workforce: more educated, especially for women) - Changes in job structure: some evidence of the important role of services and public sector for women (see J. Rubery s presentation + some Eu-Silc analyses) + increased polarization in some countries? See Autor and Dublin Foundations analysis for Europe - Institutions: on cross country data no clear evidence about the impact of labour market institutions on labour market outcomes and social groups inequalities during the crisis. ECB study: no impact of employment protection on unemployment outflows, positive impact of unemployment benefits and wage bargaining coordination. On EU-SILC data: employment protection seems to reduce probability of losing job, and LMP expenditure decreases the risk of reduced job quality (Erhel and Guergoat-Larivière, 2013).

9 2-Employment policies in a «post-welfare reform world» LMP and social policies have undergone important reforms in all OECD countries since the beginning of the 1990s: activation, labour supply focus, institutional reforms Important debates about their effects on labour market trends and inequalities. But what consequences of such reforms in recessions? According to recent studies labour market policies have in general become less reactive to GDP variations. Although they still represent an important part of income automatic stabilizers (especially unemployment benefits) (OECD 2012; Furceri, 2009; Darby et al, 2009; Erhel, Levionnois, 2013) Hillary Hoynes shows in a very convincing way that such changes also affect the distribution of policy effects : the safety net is doing less to protect the most disadvantaged groups (in the GR compared to the previous ones). UI is the most responsive programme, contrary to EITC. Consequence: growing inequalities

10 2-Employment policies in a «post-welfare reform world» In Europe austerity and public sector retrenchment have been added to these reforms, inducing further risks (identified by J. Rubery) -For employment perspectives: for youth, for women and higher educated -For job quality : more temporary jobs, involuntary part-time (and less favourable conditions in terms of work family reconciliation) -For social models: decrease in benefits, in pensions, vanishing gender equality goals and policies -Higher inequalities, even among women (by education level, by marital status lone mothers particularly disadvantaged) Convergence towards liberal model and market-based gender equality? But with limited growth

11 2-Employment policies in a «post-welfare reform world» Is there a way out? - In Europe some resilience of welfare policies and labour market policies: see the relative «success» of continental model facing the crisis - And gender equality is still a goal of European policies, with some progresses in terms of childcare coverage - But necessity to protect the European Social model through better policy coordination at the EU level: Youth Guarantee as a good practice? And for the medium run to include job quality goals in labour market policies.

12 References COE (2012), L emploi et les politiques de l emploi depuis la crise: une approche internationale ECB (2012), Euro Area labour markets and the crisis Erhel C., Guergoat-Lariviere M., Trancart D. (2014) Labour market mobility patterns during the 2008 crisis: inequalities in a comparative perspective, Document de travail du CEE Erhel C., Levionnois C. (2013), Labour Market Policies in Times of Crisis: A Comparison of the and Recessions, CES Working Paper, Erhel C., Guergoat-Lariviere M., Leschke J., Watt A. (2012), Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative approach for the EU, Document de travail du CEE, november 2012, n 161. Eurofound (2008), More and better jobs? Patterns of employment expansion in Europe ERM report 2008, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (authors Fernández-Macías, E. and Hurley, J.). Eurofound (2011), Shifts in the job structure in Europe during the Great Recession Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (authors Hurley J., Storrie D., with Jean-Marie Jungblut) Furceri D. (2009), Stabilization effects of social spending: empirical evidence from a panel of OECD countries, Economics Department Working Paper n 675, OECD, ECO/WKP (2009)16. OECD (2012), Employment Outlook Spieser C. (ed.) (2013), L'emploi en temps de crise. Trajectoires individuelles, négociations collectives et action publique, Liaisons Sociales, CEE.

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