Panel Survey on Election Administration and the Voting Experience in

Transcription

1 Panel Survey on Election Administration and the Voting Experience in

2 Pew Research Center American Trends Panel Survey Probability panel Nationally representative RDD on landline and cellphone English and Spanish language 5,338 panelists 8 unique surveys from March December

3 American Trends Panel Sample size ranged from 3,154 (wave 7) up to 3,351 (wave 5) Nearly 2,000 responded to all surveys Self administered online and by mail 12% non-internet users Web survey optimized for mobile 9-26% on mobile 4-9% on tablet 3

4 Registration Increased During the Course of the Survey 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% More than 50 percent of the individuals who were unregistered in the first survey had registered by the final wave of the survey. 79% Jan-March 15% Registered Unregistered 89% Nov-Dec 7% Percent of citizens who said they were registered in the initial survey and an aggregate measure of the individuals who registered during any wave of the survey. 4

5 Panelist Characteristics Of registered voters: 87% said they usually vote in elections 73% said they definitely voted in 2014 election 56% were confirmed voters 20% voted by mail 3% were first-time voters 5

6 Most Personal Communication about an Election Occurs in the Last Month In the past 30 days, have you been personally contacted by any candidate, party, or other organization offering you information about an upcoming election? (Among citizens) 78% 75% 73% Yes 76% No 73% 74% 67% 52% 22% 25% 26% 23% 27% 25% 33% 47% March 19 - April 29 April 29-May 27 May 30-June 30 July 7-August 4 August 11- September 3 September 15- October 3 October 9-27 November 17- December 15 6

7 Contact From Election Officials Cannot Compare with Political Groups If contacted: Who contacted you with information about an election?* Political Groups State/local election officials 94% 94% 96% 98% 93% 98% 97% 95% 31% 22% 19% 31% 20% 13% 19% 25% March 19 - April 29 April 29-May 27 May 30-June 30 July 7-August 4 August 11- September 3 September 15- October 3 October 9-27 November 17- December 15 *Political groups includes candidates/campaigns, political parties, and politically oriented groups. Question is check all that apply 7

8 Searches For Information Spike Immediately Prior to the General In the past 30 days, have you searched for information about an upcoming election? (Among citizens) Yes No 86% 79% 80% 86% 83% 79% 71% 52% 47% 29% 14% 21% 19% 14% 17% 21% March 19 - April 29 April 29-May 27 May 30-June 30 July 7-August 4 August 11- September 3 September 15- October 3 October 9-27 November 17- December 15 8

9 Candidate Data is The Most Popular Search Among those who searched: Did you search for any of the following types of Information about your voter registration status The location of your polling place Any information about the rules or requirements for voting information? The date of an upcoming election A sample ballot Information about a candidate or candidates in an election 82% 80% 85% 86% 79% 83% 82% 81% 41% 17% 14% 12% 11% 42% 39% 31% 32% 22% 21% 21% 22% 18% 17% 17% 13% 20% 16% 12% 17% 9% 12% 11% 9% 9% 7% 21% 19% 12% 11% 8% 27% 24% 18% March 19 - April 29 April 29-May 27 May 30-June 30 July 7-August 4 August 11- September 3 September 15- October 3 October 9-27 November 17- December 15 9

10 Polling Place and Sample Ballot Searches Spike Pre-Election Among those who searched: Did you search for any of the following types of information? The location of your polling place A sample ballot 17% 14% 22% 21% 21% 18% 17% 20% 17% 16% 17% 12% 21% 11% 27% 24% March 19 - April 29 April 29-May 27 May 30-June 30 July 7-August 4 August 11- September 3 September 15- October 3 October 9-27 November 17- December 15 10

11 30 Minutes is the Sweet Spot How much time do you expect to spend in line at the polling place waiting to vote? What is the maximum length of time you would be willing to wait in line to vote in the November Election? 45% 45% 8% 2% 12% 28% 13% 18% 6% 4% 19% <10 mins mi mi >60 mins 15 mins 30 mins 45 mins 60 mins 90 mins 120 mins >120mins 11

12 60% 50% Most Voters Expect Short Lines, While Non-Voters Expect Long Lines How much time do you expect to spend in line at the polling place waiting to vote? (Showing Expected Wait Time Among Voters and Non-Voters) Voter Non-Voter 40% 30% 20% 0% 53% 49% 42% 31% 13% 2% 7% 1% <10 mins mins mins >60 mins 12

13 30% Voters Have a Higher Tolerance for Waiting than Non-Voters What is the maximum length of time you would be willing to wait in line to vote in the November Election? (Showing Maximum Wait Time Among Voters and Non-Voters) 25% 20% Voter Non-Voter 15% 5% 0% 28% 28% 21% 22% 18% 16% 15% 11% 9% 9% 8% 5% 5% 3% 15 mins 30 mins 45 mins 60 mins 90 mins 120 mins >120 mins 13

14 Almost All Wait Times Defied Expectation 100% 90% Approximately how long did you have to wait in line to vote? (Showing Actual Wait Time by Expected Wait Time) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% <10 mins mins 92% mins 79% 71% >60 mins 51% 31% 18% 21% 3% 18% 6% 2% 6% 0% 0% 0% 2 <10 mins mi mi >60 mins 14

15 A Segment of the Voting Population Does Not Know How They Will Cast a Ballot Do you plan to vote in the November election in person or will you mail in your ballot? (Showing Whether Voters Correctly or Incorrectly Predicted their Mode of Voting In Person vs. Mail) 90% 80% 70% 60% Correct Incorrect 50% 40% 30% 77% 80% 83% 20% 0% 23% 20% 17% May 30-June 30 September 9-October 3 October 9-October 27 15

16 Most People Who Request Absentee Ballots Use Them 80% 70% How did you vote in the election this November? (Showing results among those who requested mail ballots) 60% Voted on Election Day 50% Voted in person before Election Day 40% By mail or absentee 30% 73% 20% 18% 9% 0% September and October Waves 16

17 Questions? Amy Cohen Heather Creek 17

18 Voters Remain Constant in Their Decisions About How to Cast a Ballot 85% Do you plan to vote in the November election in person or will you mail in your ballot?* Vote in Person 87% Mail in Ballot 84% Reported Mode of Voting** 80% 15% 13% 16% 20% May 30-June 30 September 15-October 3 October 9-27 November 17-December 15 *In person combines in person early voting and in person Election Day voting and excludes respondents who said they were not sure for ease of comparison 18