City of Winston-Salem Community and Business Development Department

Transcription

1 City of Winston-Salem Community and Business Development Department Economic Data Indicators Submitted May, 2014 (Data compiled from December 2013 through March 2014) The following indicators were compiled and evaluated by the Community and Business Development Department of the City of Winston-Salem in an effort to track the economic health of the city and county. The statistics were provided by a number of local and state governmental sources as cited in each section. Due to the limited availability of compiled data, the report has a two month time-lag. 1

2 Employment/ Unemployment The North Carolina Department of Employment Security tracks employment figures of localities at various population levels. Unemployment rates in Winston-Salem, Forsyth County and the Winston- Salem MSA increased between December of 2013 and January of 2014 resulting in rates of 6.3%, 6.5% and 6.4%, respectively. This is likely due to seasonal holiday employment ending at the beginning of the year. In the city the rate dipped back down to 6.0% in February before increasing one point the following month. The county s rate declined and plateaued at 6.2% in the last two months of the period, while the MSA s rate remained steady at 6.1%. EMPLOYMENT/ UNEMPLOYMENT TOTALS AND RATES Winston-Salem City Labor Force 109, , , ,418 Employed 102, , , ,712 Unemployed 6,528 6,936 6,543 6,706 Rate% Forsyth County Labor Force 174, , , ,861 Employed 164, , , ,887 Unemployed 10,753 11,507 10,912 10,974 Rate% Winston-Salem MSA Labor Force 237, , , ,761 Employed 222, , , ,123 Unemployed 14,403 15,334 14,498 14,638 Rate% *Source: North Carolina Department of Employment Security 2 In comparison, the unemployed populations moved similarly to the rates in all three localities. Winston- Salem s unemployed population was 6,528 in December and then peaked at 6,936 in January. This total hit another low in February and increased back up to 6,706 in March. Forsyth County s unemployed population of 10,753 rose to 11,507 in January and then remained relatively flat in the last two months ending the period at 10,972. The MSA s unemployed population increased more than 6% from December s low of 14,403 to January s high of 15,334. After a dip into the following month, the metric ended slightly up at 14,638 in March. As the unemployed populations went up and down, the employed populations experienced steady growth over all four months. The city s employed base increased from 102,737 in January to 103,712 in March. The county s total went from 164,237 up to 165,887, while the MSA s employed population grew from 222,769 to 224,123. The changes represent approximately 1% growth at all three population levels. Lastly, the labor force numbers of all three population levels experienced some up and down movement, but had overall growth from December through March. Winston-Salem s labor force grew from 109,265 to 110,418, while Forsyth County s increased from 174,990 up to a total of 176,861. The Winston-Salem MSA s labor force population started at 237,172 in December and ended the period with 238,761 in March. The increases for each population level were just slightly more than 1%. In summary, the declining unemployment rates are encouraging for the future and it is hoped that the plateaus in February and March end and lead to further decline. The uptick in the rates in January was

3 expected after the holiday season and was not alarming. It was good to see the employed populations increasing considering the stagnation in months prior. However, the growth of the employed populations and labor forces was very slow. Although this indicator has shown improvement there is still a need for more job creation to provide needed opportunities for the many citizens in need of work and to make the area more attractive to outsiders. This metric is likely to post further declining rates until summer time when new workers, students and recent graduates enter the market in search of work. Bankruptcies The Bankruptcy Court Middle District of North Carolina sees bankruptcy cases filed across the state, including in the local Forsyth County court which is within the Winston-Salem Division. The Division covers nine counties including Cabarrus, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Rowan, Stanly, Stokes, Surry and Yadkin counties. The courts hear cases filed as Chapters 12, 13, 7 and 11 bankruptcies. The number of bankruptcies in Forsyth County started the period at 43 in December before dropping to a low of 36 in January. There was an increase of approximately 61% over the last two months with a high of 58 cases in March. The Division experienced a 25% increase between December and January resulting in a peak of 119 bankruptcies. The monthly total dipped to 100 in February before peaking at 134 in March, representing a 34% increase. In Forsyth County there were no Chapter 12 bankruptcies (farmers and fishermen) during this period and only two Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcies. The majority of cases reported in the county were Chapter 13 Wage Earner Bankruptcies (95) which started the period at 29 but dipped to a low of 17 in February and ended back up at 31 in March. There were 80 total Chapter 7 straight bankruptcies during this period which ranged from a low of 14 in December and a high of 27 in March. BANKRUPTCIES Summary of Cases Filed by Countries, Within the Middle District Forsyth County Month Ch. 12 Ch. 13 Ch. 7 Ch. 11 Total DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH Winston-Salem Division Month Ch. 12 Ch. 13 Ch. 7 Ch. 11 Total DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH *Source: US Bankruptcy Court Middle District of North Carolina In the Winston-Salem Division there were no Chapter 12 bankruptcies among farmers and fishermen and four corporate Chapter 11 bankruptcies. Chapter 13 filings made up nearly 51% of the total division bankruptcies (227) while Chapter 7 made up about 48% of the cases with a total of 217. There was slight increase in Chapter 13 bankruptcies among regular-income individuals in December and January, reaching a total of 60. This dropped to 49 in February before increasing more than 28% to a period high of 63 in the last month. Chapter 7 liquidated bankruptcies were considerably low in December at only 3

4 38. This increased by more than half to 58 in January. After a dip in February, the period ended up at 71 which was an increase of more than 86% since December. In conclusion, there remains to be a limited number of Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcies and next to none, if any, Chapter 12 bankruptcies among farmers and fishermen. This is likely due to the makeup of local industry. The most prevalent bankruptcies, per usual, were Chapter 13 and Chapter 7. Movement amongst these two types was not necessarily cohesive between Forsyth County and the Winston-Salem Division. Although Forsyth County maintains approximately 40% of the Division s total filings, the other eight counties still hold great influence on the division s totals. Overall, the total number of filings was relatively lower than previous years. Inconsistency is expected month-to-month as various factors influence individuals and businesses to seek bankruptcy. The high numbers in March did standout and was likely due to many deciding to file after the financially demanding holiday season or due to them using their tax refunds to start the extensive bankruptcy process. If the local and national economy continues to improve, the number of bankruptcies should continue to decline. Definitions of each Chapter of Bankruptcy: Chapter 12 calls for the adjustment of debts for family farmers and family fishermen. Chapter 13 calls for the adjustment of debts for an individual with regular income. This debtor is allowed to keep property and develop a payment plan to repay his/her debts over time, usually three to five years. Also known as Wage Earner Bankruptcy. Chapter 7 calls for the liquidation of an individual s/ business s non-exempt assets which are sold by the trustee with proceeds distributed to creditors. This is known as straight bankruptcy. Chapter 11 calls for the reorganization of a partnership/corporation, and is known as corporate bankruptcy. The debtor usually proposes a plan of reorganizations to keep the business functioning while paying creditors over time. This form can also be filed by individuals with substantial debt and assets. 4

5 Residential Real Estate The real estate appraisal and consultancy firm Michael S. Clapp and Associates captures data from the Triad MLS system depicting the supply and demand of the residential real estate market in the Winston- Salem area, including Forsyth, Davie, Davidson, Stokes and Yadkin counties. The firm s research covered only a two-month period of January and February but compared it over the past three years. Between 2012 and this year, the number of homes sold increased from 705 to 797. The steadily increasing totals represented growth of 13%. RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET Supply and Demand, Year-To-Year Comparisons Winston-Salem MSA, Period New Listings Sales Average Price Sales/New Listings Jan-Feb, , $130, % Jan-Feb, , $130, % Jan-Feb, , $144, % Source: Michael S. Clapp & Associates, Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants Although sales are up, the number of new listings has declined. In 2012 there were 1,900 new listings were down to 1,885 in the following year and decreased even further to 1,710 in This 10% decline over the years likely depicts various competing factors, including: weak builder/developer confidence and financing; hesitant property owners wishing to sell; and absorption of the extensive stock of available homes. Another positive aspect of the current market is the increasing average price of homes sold. In 2012 and 2013 the average price declined slightly into the second year but continued to maintain within close range. However, the average jumped to $144,054 in This represents a more than a 10% increase over this three-year period. This is encouraging for sellers and those that bring homes to the market. Overall the local residential real estate market is making strong improvement. Rising sales numbers and average prices are encouraging and will lead to growth within the local market as buyers, sellers and builders regain their trust in the market and its profitability. Although the number of new listings has declined, it is not particularly a negative occurrence, as previously explained. In addition, the consumption of homes has increased as defined by the ratio of sales to new listings. This percentage increased from 37.1% in 2012 to 46.6% in this current year. Further improvement in this industry is highly expected. 5

6 Foreclosures The North Carolina Administrative Office of the Courts hears foreclosure cases for homes and businesses. At the end of 2013 in Forsyth County, there were 120 foreclosures reported in December. This increased to a high of 131 in January, representing a 9% increase. There was steady decline over the last two months of the period which ended at 121 filings in March. FORSYTH COUNTY FORECLOSURES Civil Cases with a Home or Business Foreclosure, by Filling Date *Source: N.C. Administrative Office of the Courts Although there was a peak in the number of Forsyth County home and business foreclosures in January, the monthly totals remained within a close range and had variation of less than 10%. Overall the numbers are relatively lower than those seen in previous years. Considering that foreclosure normally occurs after long periods of financial stress to home and business owners, it is expected that the improving local economy will continue to suppress the presence of foreclosures. 6

7 Business Licenses: Start-ups & Existing Businesses The Revenue Division of the City of Winston-Salem Finance Department issues privilege licenses to startups and existing businesses wishing to operate within city limits. These licenses are issued on the fiscal year cycle which runs from July through June. In December there were 66 total new business permits issued which increased steadily over the following three months. Between December of 2013 and March 2014, the monthly totals increased to 75 licenses in March, an almost 14% boost. The Revenue Division also takes note of the racial and gender demographics of firms applying for privilege licenses. At the beginning of this period, there were 13 business permits issued to minorityand women-owned businesses. This number grew to 20 in January before hitting a period low of 10 in February. Totals were back up at 20 in March. The growth in the total number of privilege licenses issued is promising as new and current businesses are seeking to get licensed after the turn of the year. The steady growth of the metric and the higher monthly totals, compared to previous years, points to stronger confidence by local business owners. In addition, the number of privilege licenses issued to minority- and women-owned businesses has shown promise. Higher than average monthly totals of new business permits is forecasted as the months progress. WINSTON-SALEM START-UPS & EXISTING BUSINESSES New Business Privilege Licenses Issued Total M/WBEs *Source: City of Winston-Salem Finance Department- Revenue Division *All businesses located within and/or operating in Winston-Salem are regulated to hold a license, except for those that are licensed by the state such as medical or other professional practices. In addition, all new business licenses issued are not for start-up businesses and may include out-of-town businesses coming to the city for a limited amount of time. Therefore, this indicator is not the most accurate for evaluating start-ups. 7

8 Business Licenses: Closing The Revenue Division measures business closings by the number of inactive privilege licenses not reapplied for year-over-year. This includes businesses that have closed or moved away. In December of 2013 there was very little activity with just 18 closures reported during the holiday season. These low numbers continued into the beginning of the new year with 13 in January and 15 in February. The total number of inactivations grew by 467% to a high of 85 in March. The spike is largely due to the Revenue Division mailing alcohol license renewal letters to permit holders during the month. This provides the division the opportunity to hear back from businesses that have closed over the course of the year. Overall, the total number of business closures and inactivations remains to be affected by cyclical changes in the calendar year and business climate. Despite these interruptions, the totals remain relatively low during this four month period, especially after the start of the new year. In conclusion, it is predicted that the totals will continue to be lower than previous years as more businesses are hopefully finding it easier to sustain themselves within the current market. WINSTON-SALEM BUSINESS CLOSINGS Privilege Licenses Inactivated *Source: City of Winston-Salem Finance Department- Revenue Division *These calculations exclude construction sector businesses that are often from out-of-town and that apply for licenses for construction projects that occur during limited time periods. Again, this isn t the most accurate measure of business closings, yet it is insightful. 8