Dual Labour Markets after the Great Recession. Lessons from the Spanish 2012 Reform
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1 Dual Labour Markets after the Great Recession. Lessons from the Spanish 2012 Reform Juan J. Dolado (EUI) The Spanish Economy Perspectives EUI-nomics, Florence, April 29 th 2016
2 Why are Dual LMs back in the policy agenda?
3 Spain: A bulimic LM (Huge JC followed by huge JD)
4 Long-lasting effects on Mismatch: Beveridge curve
5 Dilemma: LM flexibility or rigidity? Both in excess Volatility of HP-Cyclical Employment: Spainvs. US Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Spain USA
6 Spain as epitome of a dual LM (prior GR) EPL Gap betweenperms& temps Days of wages per year of service Years of service EPL gap= Sev. Pay (PC)+ Red Tape Costs -Sev. Pay (TC)
7 EPL gap (before GR) = 45 d.w.y.s (PC) + 60 d.w. (RTC)-8 d.w.y.s (TC) Alternative strategies o(apc) Hire 1 worker for 10 years under PC and then fire o(atc) Hire 10 workers 1 year each under PC EPL gap= 14.2 monthly wages NB :If wages were flexible (and workers were risk neutral) they could offset the transfer from employer to employee (steeper wage-tenure) Otherwise. Revolving door!!
8 Unemployment & Collective Bargaining decentralization Firm-level Industry/ province Nationwide
9 Revolving door: wasteful worker turnover!! JC(TC)> JC(PC) in Expansions, JD(TC)>JD(PC) in Recessions Conv.RateTC-PC % PCs in new hires Temp-to-perm conversion rate ( ) 2016 % Source: Encuesta de Coyuntura Laboral
10 Youth unemployment & NEETs
11 Scarring effects in Youth LM The dual labour market trap: Persistence % workers remaining in temporary jobs by entry cohort ( , Spain) Age Up to 20 y.o y.o y.o y.o.
12 Spain: Large shifts in employment relocation by sector
13 WagepressureandtheTCbufferstock Variación % coste salarial ordinario por trabajador/mes (TC) Tasas de temporalidad (1T 2008) Buffer effect: Bargained wage growth in vs. Share of temporary jobs in 2008 (regions)
14
15 EPL gap (Spain post GR) EPL Gap betweenperms& temps Days of wages per year of service EPL gap= 4.5 monthly wages (5yrs) = 8.0 monthly wages (10 yrs) Years of service
16
17
18 Real wage and employment growth
19 Outcomes pre-post Reform
20 GDP growth Trade (Exp & Imp) Employment & unemployment growth Unit labour costs
21 Successes o LM internal flexibility o Fostered adjustment through the two internal devaluation channels ( labour costs & labour force) o Less social resistance to LM reforms than in other countries (insiders at risk)
22 Failures (Groundhog Day time-loop syndrome) o Firing costs (recession) Job destruction ( ) o New contracts haven t taken off (high EPL gap) o Opt-outs <7% of firms unilaterally reduced wages (17% reduced working time) o Less economic dismissals than <2012 (higher red-tape costs) o Low representativeness of social agents in sector agreements: 17% (unions) and 27% (firms 5-49 workers) o Low coverage of UI: <55% of unemployed o Employment Activation Plan for LTU<15% of eligible workers
23 Inequality: Changes in Gini coefficient (earnings)
24 Designing a SOEC for Spain Risk aversion+ Young (liquidity constraints) & Older workers (annuities) + Unemployment insurance financed by payroll taxes
25 Decomposition of welfare gains
26 Job destruction Average wage -all workers
27 Political support 2012 LM reform Welfare gain: 0.86% vs. 1.68% (SOEC) Political support 65.4% vs %
28 Unified contract (Jobs Act in Italy) Red-tape costs? Court litigation? Combination of Severance Pay & Contribution Mutual Fund Combination of Severance Pay & Experience rating
29 Before/After the JOBS ACT 900, , , , , , , , , , ,000 January - March January - December Net change of permanent jobs 237, ,129 Net change of temporary jobs 92, ,344
30 Youth Guarantee: A Marshall Plan for Youth?
31 Firm size distribution could be a big obstacle
32 Thanks for your attention
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