EU Dual Labour Markets. Consequences and Potential Reforms (*)
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1 EU Dual Labour Markets. Consequences and Potential Reforms (*) Juan J. Dolado (EUI) EEA-ESEM Geneva 2016 COEURE Session (*) Chapter 2 in Blundell, R. et al. (eds.) Economics Without Borders COEURE
2 Why are Dual LMs back in the policy agenda?
3 Outline (I) Origins of Dual Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) (II) Taking stock of effects of Dual EPL on LM outcomes (III) Integrating results into a narrative of Dual LMs pre-post GR (IV) Dismantling Dual EPL: Policy options
4 (I) Origins of Dual LMs in EU Southern-EU (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain) Common pattern: Dictatorships during 20 th c. (stringent EPL to prevent social unrest) & subsequent transition to democracy during turbulent periods (oil price crises) Two-tier LM reforms France Immigration flows Lower wages May 1968 revolt Min Wage (SMIC) Stringent EPL Two-tier LM reforms [Poland, Sweden, The Netherlands ] Use of non-regular contracts (on-call, free-lance, commercial law) to: (i) foster JC under adverse macro conditions + (ii) facilitate LM incorporation of population groups with low LFP.
5 Emergence of EPL: Historical timeline
6 Subsequent developments Reduction of stringency in overall EPL (prior to GR)
7 mostly through increasing EPL gap
8 Dilemma: LM flexibility or rigidity? Both in excess Volatility of HP-Cyclical Employment: Spain vs. US 0,04 0,02 0-0,02-0,04-0,06 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Spain USA
9 Days of wages per year of service Spain as epitome of a dual LM (prior GR) EPL Gap between perms & temps Years of service EPL gap= Sev. Pay (PC) + Red Tape Costs - Sev. Pay (TC)
10 EPL gap (before GR) = 45 d.w.y.s. (PC) + 60 d.w. (RTC)- 8 d.w.y.s (TC) Alternative strategies o (PC) Hire 1 worker for 5 years under PC and then fire o (TC) Hire 5 workers sequentially 1 year each under TC EPL gap= 8.1 monthly wages NB: Under risk neutrality, deferrable wages offset the transfer from employer to employee (Lazear 1990: steeper wage-tenure profile) Otherwise. Revolving door!!
11 Inefficient worker turnover
12 Dead ends vs. Stepping stones % PCs in new hires Temp-to-perm conversion rate ( ) % Source: Encuesta de Coyuntura Laboral
13 Youth unemployment & NEETs
14 Redressing LM duality (post GR)
15 Recent EPL reforms ( )
16 Days of wages per year of service EPL gap (Spain post GR) EPL Gap between perms & temps EPL gap= 4.5 monthly wages (5yrs) Years of service
17 (II) Reviewing effects of Dual EPL on LM Search & Matching models of Dual EPL Bentolila & Saint-Paul (1992), Blanchard & Landier (2002), Cahuc & Postel-Vinay (2002), Kugler & Saint-Paul (2004), Garibaldi & Violante (2005), Boeri & Garibaldi (2007), Bentolila et al. (2012), Aguirregabíria & Alonso Borrego (2014), García-Pérez & Osuna (2014), Cahuc et al. (2015), inter alia.
18 Job flows JC (TC)> JC (PC) in Expansions, JD (TC)>JD (PC) in Recessions. Conv. Rate TC-PC
19 Spain: A bulimic LM (huge JC followed by huge JD)
20 Bargained regional wage growth rate % Wage differentials & Wage pressure Rate of temporary work ( ) Buffer effect: Bargained wage growth in vs. Share of temporary jobs in 2008 (regions)
21 Human capital/ Training HK(PC) vs. HK (TC): Large gap Dropout rate ( Spain, 18-24) U-rate and Earnings inequality
22 Technology choices and relocation shocks
23 Job insecurity, Low fertility, Deferred parental leave
24 Long-lasting effects on Mismatch: Beveridge curve
25 (III) Integrating results. A Narrative of Dual LM pre-post GR From Boom ( ) to Bust ( ) to Recovery Access EZ real interest rate+ easier access to credit Investment boom in low value-added sectors (suitable for TC) [ Bubble Burst] Wages Less-Skilled workers + Low productivity school dropout rates + Large immigration inflows (low fertility) Growing imbalances Low TFP growth Large competitiveness loss Large Current Account deficit
26 TFP development
27 Competitiveness Countercyclical College Premium Spain
28 CA balance %GDP
29 (IV) Dismantling Dual EPL Collective Bargaining decentralization Higher wage flexibility (Lazear s offsetting transfer effect) Strengthening TC regulations w/o changes in EPL (PC) or Reducing overly restrictive EPL (PC) w/o changes in EPL (TC) Long entry phases (stepping stone) Single/ unified open- ended contract (SOEC) Andres et al. (2009), Cahuc & Kramarz (2005), Boeri & Garibaldi (2008), Blanchard & Tirole (2008), Bentolila & Jansen (2010), (P) Ichino (2014), Conde-Ruiz et al. (2011), Cahuc (2012), Boeri et al. (2013), Jobs Act, etc.
30 Designing a SOEC for Spain Risk aversion+ Young (liquidity constraints) & Older workers (annuities) + UI financed by payroll taxes
31 Decomposition of welfare gains
32 Job destruction
33 Political support 2012 LM reform Welfare gain: 0.86% vs. 1.68% (SOEC) Political support 65.4% vs %
34
35 Unified contract (Jobs Act in Italy) Red-tape costs? Court litigation? Combination of Severance Pay & Contribution Mutual Fund Combination of Severance Pay & Experience rating
36 Before/After the JOBS ACT January - March January - December Net change of permanent jobs Net change of temporary jobs
37 Inequality: Changes in Gini coefficient (earnings)
38 Thanks for your attention
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