Quantifying Affordability. SSATB Admission Leadership Council Seminar. May 17, Mark J. Mitchell Vice President SSS by NAIS

Transcription

1 Quantifying Affordability SSATB Admission Leadership Council Seminar May 17, 2016 Mark J. Mitchell Vice President SSS by NAIS

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3 Four Angles of Vision Affordability Posture Perceptions & Emotions Tuition & Income Change Shifting Financial Aid Pools

4 #1: Know Your Affordability Posture

5 What s Your Affordability Range? Median Avg Tuit + Fees Full-Pay Tuit/Fees + 2.5% Full-Pay Tuit/Fees + 5% Full-Pay NAIS Day $22,867 $159,655 $23,254 $161,140 (0.9%) $24,010 $164,045 (2.7%) AISGW Day $32,009 $192,835 $32,809 $195,750 (1.5%) $33,609 $198,663 (3.0%) Assumptions: Family of four, two parents, two children, one in a tuition-charging school, parents age 44, both work, one earns $50K, DC residents, no net worth, no student assets, standard deductions for taxes 5 Source: SSS By NAIS methodology for the academic year

6 Income Distribution Snapshot Income Range % of HH, National* % of HH Wash DC Metro* % of Sample School s Fin Aid Applications Avg Inc, Sample School s Fin Aid Applicants LT $25K $ 11,268 $25K-$49, $ 37,240 $50K-$74, $ 62,916 $75K-$99, $ 89,878 $100K-$124, $ 106,898 $125K-$149, $ 140,730 $150K-$199, $ 172,073 $200K $ 253,754 Median $63,336 $105,342 $ 106,017 $ 2,987 Average $84,337 $130,198 $ 119,197 $ 7,260 EFC *Source: NAIS Demographic Center 6

7 Affordability Posture What does it take to afford one tuition? $200,000 without COLA taken into account 19.5% of Wash DC metro HH s earn $200K or more To pay the average DC area tuition for , a family has to earn nearly 2X the median income for DC metro households A full-pay family has to earn at least $6 for each $1 of the average DC area tuition price On average, a 2.5% DC area tuition increase requires a 1.5% income increase for full-payers; a 5% tuition change requires a 3% income change

8 #2: Tuition vs Income Change

9 4.4% 5.2% 6.9% 6.4% 9.3% 10.8% 13.5% 14.0% 24.0% 28.8% 35.9% 35.7% 50.7% 59.5% 70.0% 77.8% Median Tuition as % of Income Overall Ratio 9th Day Top 5% Ratio 9th Day Overall Ratio 9th Bdg Top 5% Ratio 9th Bdg 9 Sources: Tuition data from NAIS DASL; Income data from US Census Bureau

10 Pace of Change, CPI--Urban Mean Fam Inc Top 20% Fam Inc Top 5% Fam Inc Mean Bdg Tuition Mean Day Tuition Sources: Tuition data from NAIS DASL; Income data from US Census Bureau

11 #3: Shifting Financial Aid Pools

12 Who s Seeking Financial Aid? K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K K K 150K+ Range of Total Family Income Source: SSS By NAIS PFS Filer Pool. Reflects total income from all sources, before taxes or allowances, as reported by families on the PFS submitted.

13 Who s Getting Financial Aid? Pct of Awards Made, by Income Quintile Top 5%: Over $217, % 11.7% Over $121, % 42.6% $78,001 - $121, % 26.0% $51,001 - $78, % 19.1% $29,001 - $51, % 13.1% $0 - $29, % 11.8% Source: SSS By NAIS processing system database

14 #4: Family Perceptions and Emotions

15 Today s Fin Aid Applicant: How Do They Pay? Source: SSS/NAIS Survey: How Parents Pay, Pt. 1

16 Today s Full-Pay Families: How Do They Feel? Emotions When Thinking About Financing Private School 58% Thankful (I have the means to pay for it) 52% Satisfied (in knowing I m doing what s best for my child) 54% Stressed 13% 11% 9% Worried 6% Annoyed 9% 6% Taken advantage of 5% 3% Unconcerned 3% 2% Overwhelmed 3% 1% Fearful 3% 1% Indifferent 3% 1% Calm 2% 3% None of these 3% 4% Independent School Parents (266) Other Private School Parents (147) 68% Source: SSS/NAIS Survey: How Parents Pay, Pt 2

17 Quantifying Affordability How does our price affect our ability to shape the community we want? Explore Your Four Angles of Vision 1. Affordability Posture 2. Tuition and Income Trending 3. Shifting Applicant and Recipient Pools 4. Parent/Family Mindsets Execute Your Four Angles of Action 1. (Re)Affirm Purpose of Financial Aid Investment 2. Understand Your Trends and Trajectories 3. Define, Measure Outcomes Consistent with Purpose 4. Determine How Much The Access Imperative Matters

18 Mark J. Mitchell sss.nais.org