Goals. Access the project site

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1 Goals The main goal of this project is to assess the change in the quality of life of the population in Rio after the olympic venue announcement. We analyzed several areas such as education, labor, housing, public services, transportation, digital inclusion and social development through household surveys microdata. Another goal is to act as an ombudsman of the Olympics social impact in Rio, making the results transparent to society. The project website provides user-friendly softwares that allows anyone to cross different sets of information and turn them into useful knowledge. Access the project site 1

2 About the Project The term Olympic legacy refers generally to the projection of the gains to be seized by the city after the realization of the event. But can we already assess significant inflections in the historical series of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro in the period between the announcement and the realization of the event? How the local population has been affected during the period of preparation for the Olympics? How has changed the home, school, work, transport?; Who benefited the most with these changes: men or women, or even young, middle-aged or elderly, and so on? The realization of a global event in a territory before nicknamed splited city" poses enormous challenges in terms of inequality. What changes reached the base of the social pyramid Rio? The distribution of income, evolved or regressed? And compared to the other cities in the Rio metropolitan area? These are empirical and factual issues to be studied with a vast pool of public microdata still unexplored. The unprecedented opening of Rio s household surveys microdata allows a scientifically investigation of the existence or not of a pre-olympic social legacy. 2

3 Simple Comparative Scoreboard Time Evolution Pub. Serv. Housing and Transport Education Labor and Social Develop. Area of Interest or 2016# Sewerage (%) 74,93 85,02 93,64 Sewage in River or Lake (%) 1,6 2,56 1,23 Piped Water (%) 96,7 98,52 99,26 Garbage Collected Directly (%) 89,77 89,03 92,94 Electricity* (%) 99,87 99, Three or more inhabitants per bedroom (%) 20,27 14,06 13,41 Financed own house (%) 9,02 4,14 4,32 Own house with bathroom (%) 72,15 71,08 77,37 Has a Washing machine (%) 40,5 73,32 87,85 Transport Time (Direct to Work) (hrs) 0,64 0,69 0,78 Years of Schooling Total Population (years) 7,34 7,91 8,67 Years of Schooling - 15 years or + (years) 7,79 9,39 10,1 Years of Schooling - 5 to 14 years time series starts in 1996 (years) 1,58 1,59 1,75 Goes to School - Below 15 years (%) 62,55 80,09 81,3 Has a Private Pension Fund (%) 4,18 3,83 4,67 per capita Household Labor Earnings (R$) # 774, ,2 per capita Household Labor Earnings Microentrepreneur (R$) # per capita Household Labor Earnings Wage earners (R$) # per capita Household Income All Sources (R$) # per capita Household Income Social Secutiry or BPC (R$) 250,2 417,2 486,3 per capita Household Income - Others Sources (R$) # per capita Household Income (Total Economy of Scale 0.5) (R$) # Poverty - CPS/FGV Line (%) # 10,9 5,71 2,09 Poverty - US$1,25/day PPP Line (%) # 2,52 2,13 0,87 Among 38 indicators generated in the project, 24 are comparable before (1992) and after (2014 or 2016) the Olympic venue announcement (2008). The table in the left shows the simple evolution of each indicator in Rio de Janeiro between the key years of the comparison before and after the Olympic announcement. Simple Comparative Scoreboard Time Evolution Area Indicator Housing Density per bedroom (%) 14,06 13,41 Transport Transport Time evaluated in Wage (R$) 17,46 42,19 Transport Has a Car (%) 37,8 42,43 Transport Has a Motocycle (%) 1,71 3,35 Transport Has a Car and a Motocycle (%) 1,91 3,45 Education Goes to Public School - Below 15 years (%) 48,85 50,75 Education Goes to City (Municipal) School - Below 15 years (%) 43,7 46,71 Education Goes or Concluded College - 25 years or + (%) 18,23 22,83 Digital Inclusion Used Internet in the last 3 Months (%) (starts in 2009) 51,2 63,05 Digital Inclusion Used Internet in the last 3 Months 15 years or + (%) (starts in 2009) 55,5 69,71 Digital Inclusion Has a Personal Cellphone (%) (starts in 2009) 63,13 75,86 Digital Inclusion Has a Computer with Internet at home (%) 47,5 66,73 Digital Inclusion Has a Cable TV (%) (starts in 2013) 59,55 59,85 Social Develop. Contributes for Public Social Security (%) 65,74 72,78 Among 38 indicators generated in the project, 14 aren t comparable in time, once the data collection starts only after the olympic announcement The table in the left shows the evolution of these indicators until nowadays 3

4 Looking Through the X annoucement had an impact? If yes, for the Worst? Or Better? Rio2016 announcement About the Project Methodology We built a detailed diagnosis of the daily living conditions in Rio from a myriad of microdata. We assess each indicator, trying to find if its trend changed after the announcement of Rio 2016, pointing out if the change is positive or negative. We look the simple evolution of indicators in time as also to this time series change controlled by comparable attributes such as gender, age, immigration, education, among others, comparing similar people at different times, in order to isolate demographic composition effects. Finally, we compare the relative Carioca change in comparison with all others cities in the Metropolitan Area. Points in time of the immediate pre-olympic period: by traditional PNAD. In the case of income and poverty data, we reach 2016 by Continuous PNAD and administrative records. A key point is to what extent the economic crisis underway has already affected the living conditions in the city. Finally, we analyze if the pattern of changes before the announcement of the Olympics changed after We generate the period before the announcement with the PNADs between , using the Demographic Census of 1970 and 2010 to assess whether there was a pre-announcement trend of relative deterioration of the indicators. Census also allow us to open trends for Planning Areas (APs) and Administrative Regions (RAs) in the city of Rio. 4

5 Evaluation Criteria for the Carioca Change # 1) Evolution simple comparison of each indicator before the Rio2016 announcement (2008) with its last available data (typically 2014 or 2016#). A sort of competition between the carioca society with itself. How much each dimension changed after the announcement? 2) Conditional Change in line with the previous criterion, but comparing people with similar sociodemographic charactereristics (sex, age, education, etc.) at each point of time. In ours competitive analogy, we net out different initial conditions for better assessing the post announcement trajectory. 3) Relative Conditional Change Goes a step beyond the previous criterion and compares not only similar people but assesses carioca s relative progress with respect the rest of the Metropolitan Area, also known as Greater Rio. Dynamic progress between peers at distinct geographic areas. It is not enough for the carioca to see his indicators improve, but it has to improve more than for the control group. # Carioca means born in the city of Rio; Income based measures go up until 2016, while most others indicators reach only After Rio2016 announcement, quality of life in the city: improved or deteriorated? Final Scoreboard Rio Changes after the Announcement ( ) 1) Carioca Evolution: 36 x 2 (means 36 improvements and 2 setbacks) 2) Cariocas Conditional Changes: 32 x 3 and 3 statistical draws 3) Cariocas Relative Conditional Changes: 23 x 5 and 10 draws 5

6 Post Olympics Announc. Social Scoreboard Pub. Serv. Housing Transport Digital Incl. Area of Interest 1) Cariocas Changes 2) Cariocas Conditional# Changes 3) Cariocas Relative## Conditional# Changes Sewerage Sewage in River or Lake Piped Water Garbage Collected Directly Electricity* Density per bedroom Three or more inhabitants per bedroom 0 Financed own house 0 0 Own house with bathroom Washing machine Transport Time (Direct to Work) 0 Transport Time evaluated in Wage Has a Car Has a Motocycle 0 Has a Car and a Motocycle 0 Used Internet in the last 3 Months Used Internet in the last 3 Months 15 years or + 0 Has a Personal Cellphone Has a Computer with Internet at home Has a Cable TV # by sex, age, color, immigration, household size, parents education ## in relation with the remaining part of the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro Post Olympics Announc. Social Scoreboard Education Labor Social Develop. Area of Interest Years of Schooling Total Population 1) Cariocas Changes 2) Cariocas Conditional# Changes 3) Carioca Relative## Conditional# Changes Years of Schooling - 15 years or + 0 Years of Schooling - 5 to 14 years Attends School - Below 15 years Goes to Public School - Below 15 years Goes to City (Municipal) School - Below 15 years Goes or Concluded College - 25 years or + 0 per capita Household Labor Earnings Contributes for Public Social Security 0 Has a Private Pension Fund - 15 years or more 0 per capita Household Labor Earnings Microentrepreneurs per capita Household Labor Earnings Wage earners per capita Household Income All Sources per capita Household Income Social Secutiry or BPC 0 per capita Household Income - Others Sources 0 per capita Household Income (Total Economy of Scale 0.5) Poverty - FGV Social Line Extreme Poverty - US$1,25/day PPP Line 6

7 One last question: the Pattern of Changes changed between before and after Rio2016 announcement? Social Scoreboard Comparable Changes Before X After ) Cariocas Changes: Before Announcement ( ): 18 x 6 After Announcement ( # ): 23 x 1 2) Cariocas Conditional Changes: Before Announcement ( ): 13 x 5 and 6 draws After Announcement ( # ): 20 x 1 and 3 draws 3) Cariocas Relative Conditional Changes: Before Announcement ( ): 7 x 10 and 7 draws After Announcement ( # ): 18 x 1 and 5 draws Comparative Scoreboard Change in Rio x Control Group Pub. Serv. Housing and Transport Education Labor and Social Develop. Area of Interest Sewerage 1992 to 2008 Sewage in River or Lake 0 Piped Water Garbage Collected Directly Electricity* Threeor more inhabitants per bedroom 2008 to 2016 # Financed own house 0 Own house with bathroom Washing machine Time in Transport (Direct to Work) 0 Years of Schooling Total Population Years of Schooling - 15 years or+ 0 Years of Schooling - 5 to14 years Goes to School - Below 15 years 0 Employee s Contributionfor Private Social Security per capita Household Income Labor # per capita Household Labor Income Microentrepreneur # 0 per capita Household Labor Income Wage earners # 0 per capita Household Income - Total # per capita Household Income Social Secutiry or BPC # 0 0 per capita Household Income - Others Sources # 0 per capita Household Income (Total Economy of Scale 0.5) # Poverty - CPS/FGV Line # 0 Poverty - US$1,25/day PPP Line # 0 Out of the 38 indicators 24 can be traced back to assess changes during the period before the Olympic announcement, The table on the left shows a summary of the statistical analysis of the indicators evolution in Rio compared with the control group, strategy detailed in the following slides, confirming the "V" format on the comparison before and after the Olympic announcement. Social Scoreboard Comparable Results 3) Cariocas Relative Conditional Changes: ( ): 7 x 10 & 7 statistical draws ( /16 # ): 18 x 1 & 5 draws # Income based measures go up until 2016, while most others indicators reach only

8 Before and After Olympics Announc. Complete Social Scoreboard Pub. Serv. Housing and Transport Education Labor and Social Develop. Area of Interest Sewerage Before Announcement ( ) 3) Carioca Relative## 1) Carioca Evolution 2) Cariocas Conditional# Changes Conditional # Changes Sewage in River or Lake 0 Piped Water Garbage Collected Directly Electricity* After Announcement ( ) 2) Cariocas 1) Carioca Evolution Conditional # Changes 3) Carioca Relative## Conditional # Changes Threeor more inhabitants per bedroom 0 Financed own house 0 0 Own house with bathroom 0 Washing machine Transport Time (Direct to Work) 0 0 Years of Schooling Total Population Years of Schooling - 15 years or+ 0 Years of Schooling - 5 to14 years 0 Goes to School - Below 15 years 0 Has a Private PensionFund 0 per capita Household Labor Earnings # per capita Household Labor Earnings Microentrepreneur # 0 0 per capita Household Labor Earnings Wage earners # 0 per capita Household Income All Sources # per capita Household Income Social Secutiry or BPC # 0 0 per capita Household Income - Others Sources # 0 0 per capita Household Income (Total Economy of Scale 0.5) # Poverty - CPS/FGV Line # 0 Poverty - US$1,25/day PPP Line # ,02 Blue Ballon indicates a positive evolution until ,93 Public Services Coverage - Sewerage and Garbage Sewerage (%) 93,64 89,03 ->1992 Year indicates the start point of the time series before announcement: between Garbage Collected Directly (%) 92,94+ Blue curve indicates a positive evolution between , 89,77 ->1992 while red indicates a negative one Positive Sign (+) indicates if the last year (2014) is the better of the time series ,56 1,6 Sewage in River or Lake (%) Red Ballon indicates a negative evolution between > 1992: 1,23 8

9 Public Services - Sewerage and Garbage: Controlled¹ Chances ¹ Between , we compared people alike in sex, age, color, immigration, parent education, household size: (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio * significative at 9 ; ** significative at 9 ; *** significative at 99% (1) (2) Mudança Rio Changes Carioca After Pós OBS1: Asterisks represent results with statistical relevance 147.4%** 46,2%** -39.** Esgoto Sewage vai in para River Rio orou Lake Lago Rede Sewerage de Esgoto Coleta Garbage de Collection Lixo (2) (3) Mudança Rio Relative Carioca Changes Relativa After Pós OBS2: Non-significative statistical results are presented as null () -52,4%** -24,8%** 68,9%** Esgoto Sewagevai in River para Rio or Lake ou Lago Rede Sewerage de Esgoto Coleta Garbage de Collection Lixo Cariocas have 147.4% more chances to be connected to the sewerage in 2014 than in However, compared with the rest of Greater Rio, during the same period, chances are 24.8% lower Public Services Coverage Water and Electricity Piped Water (%) Electricity (%) 99,96 99, ,00+ 98, ,7 -> ,87 ->1992 Housing Bathroom and Washing Machine Has a Bathroom (%) Has a Washing Machine (%) 99, ,85+ 98, , ,79 -> ,5 ->1992 9

10 Public Services and Housing Water, Bathroom and Washing Machine: Controlled Chances (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio Rio Changes After ,7%** 69,** 38,1%** Máquina Washing de Machine lavar Água Pipedem Water pelo menos 1 comodo Casa Ownprópria house with com bathroom banheiro dentro inside Rio Relative Changes After ,2%** 26,3%** 27,1%** Máquina Washing Machine de lavar Água Pipedem Water pelo menos 1 comodo Casa Ownprópria house with com bathroom banheiro dentro inside A Rio inhabitant has 159,7% more chances to acquire a washing machine in 2014 compared with Relative to the rest of the Greater Rio, during this period, the chances are 26,3% higher. Housing Household Population Density: Controlled Chances Rio Changes After (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio -39,** Density Densidade per por bedroom dormitório Three Três ou ormais more moradores inhabitants por per cômodo bedroom Rio Relative Changes After ,4%** -6-59,3%** Density Densidade per por bedroom dormitório Three Três ou ormore mais moradores inhabitants por cômodo per bedroom There are 39% lower chances for the household population density in 2014 in Rio be the same as in Compared with the rest of Greater Rio in this period chances are even lower, reaching 52,38%. 10

11 Panoramas: cross variables and manage tables or plots of your interest Panoramas: cross variables and manage tables or plots of your interest 11

12 Transport Cars and Motocycles Has a Car(%) 5 42, , Has a Motocycle (%) 0,8 3,35+ 0,75 0,7 1,71 0,65 0,6 0,55 Has a Car and a Motocycle(%) 3,45+ 1,91 Transport Time (hrs) 0,78 0,69 0,64 ->1992 Transport Transport Time: Controlled Losses 10 (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio 10 Rio Changes After ,1%*** 17,8%*** Transport Tempo de time transporte between entre employees ocupados that que goes directly vão direto work ao trabalho Daily Tempo transport de percurso time diário accounted avaliado in wage em of the main salário job do trabalho principal Rio Relative Changes After ,1%*** Transport Tempo de time transporte betweentre employees ocupados that que goes vão directly direto ao totrabalho work Daily Tempo transport de percurso time diário accounted avaliado in wage em salário of the main do trabalho job principal Compared with 2008, daily transport time in Rio increased 17,8%. In turn, compared with the rest of Greater Rio in this period, transport time had no change. 12

13 Digital Inclusion Access to Information and Communication Technologies ,13 47,5 Has a Cellphone (%) 75, Has a Computer with Internet (%) 66,73 19,31 -> ,82 -> Acess to Internet in the Last 3 months (%) 63,05+ 51, ,85 Has a Television (%) 99,49 Digital Inclusion Access to Information and Communication Technologies Rio Changes After (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio 279,1%** 236,4%** 206,** Acess Tem acesso to Internet a internet the- last 3 meses 3 months Has Tem a Computador computer with com internet Has Tem a celular cellphone individual 15 years - 15 or anos more ou mais Has TV por cable assinatura TV 208,3%** 115,3%** 79,8%** 84,9%** In 2014, compared with 2009, chances to access internet in the last 3 months in Rio raised 206%. Relative to the rest of Greater Rio, chances are even stronger in this period, reaching 208%. Rio Relative Changes After Acess Tem acesso to Internet a internet the- last 3 meses 3 months Has Tem a Computador computer with com internet Has Tem a celular cellphone individual 15 years - 15 or anos more ou mais Has TV por cable assinatura TV 13

14 Education Goes to School (age group of municipal responsability) Goes to School - 0 to 4 years (%) Goes to School - 5 to 9 years (%) 44, ,97 37, , ,46 -> ,26 -> ,77 97 Goes to School - 10 to 14 years (%) 99, Goes to School Below 15 years (%) 80,09 81, ,03 -> ,55 -> ,22 58,76 Education Goes to Municipal School Goes to Municipal School - 0 to 4 years (%) Goes to Municipal School - 10 to 14 years (%) 20,62 59, Goes to Municipal School - 5 to 9 years (%) 51, Goes to Municipal School Below 15 years (%) 43,7 58,04 46,

15 Rio Changes After Education Goes to School: Controlled Chances (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio 160,3%** 152,** Goes Frequenta to School escola Below - até anos years Goes Frequenta to Municipal escola municipal School Below - até 1415 anos years Rio Relative Changes After ,9%** Goes Frequenta to School escola Below - até anos years Goes Frequenta to Municipal escola municipal School Below - até 1415 anos years Compared with 2009, cariocas are 16 more likely to go to municipal school in In relation to the rest of Greater Rio, however, there were no observable probability changes. 0,80 0,79 0,78 0,77 0,76 0,75 0,74 0,73 0,72 0,71 0,70 Education Gain and Distribution of Schooling ,91 Gini: Years of Schooling - 5 to 9 years Years of Schooling 8,67+ 3,85 4,47+ 0,44 0,61+ ->1992 7,34 All Todos 55 toa 9 years anos toa 14 anos years Gini: Years of Schooling - 10 to 14 years 0,30 0,29 0,28 0,77 0,27 0,26 0,26 0,25 0,24 0,23 0,71+ 0,22 0,21+ ->1996 0,76 0,21 ->1992 0,29 0,20 15

16 Education Schooling: Controlled Gains (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio 2 2 Rio Changes After % 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 14,4%*** 9,*** 8,*** Anos Yearsde ofestudo Schooling 15 anos 15 years ou mais or more Anos Yearsde ofestudo Schooling 5 a 514 toanos 14 years Anos Yearsde ofestudo Schooling população total population total Rio Relative Changes After % 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 9,9%*** 2,3%* Anos Yearsde ofestudo Schooling 15 anos 15 years ou mais or more Anos Yearsde ofestudo Schooling 5 a 514 toanos 14 years Anos Yearsde ofestudo Schooling população total population total Schooling at the Primary School Level (municipal assignment) had a gain of 14,4% between Value above than for the other age groups and for the rest of the Greater Rio ,39 Education College and Postgraduate Studies Goes or Concluded College - All (%) 23, ,7 12,21 -> ,67 ->1992 Goes or Concluded College - 25 years or more (%) 18,23 13,37 -> , ,19 2,1 Goes or Concluded College - 18 to 24 years (%) 30,25 Goes or Concluded Postgraduate Course (%) ->1992 0,92 ->1992 0,67 3,65 3,34 Frequenta/Frequentou Goes or concluded Postgraduate Curso de Pós Course Graduação - 30 to yearsa 35 anos Frequenta/Frequentou Goes or concluded Postgraduate Curso de Pós Course Graduação - 36 to yearsa 39 anos 16

17 Education College: Controled Chances (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio Rio Changes After ,3%** Concluiu Goes or Concluded ou cursa ensino superior College - 25 anos yearsou or mais more Rio Relative Changes After Concluiu Goes or Concluded ou cursa ensino superior College - 25 years anos ou or mais more Cariocas are 13,3% more likely to go or finish college in 2014 compared to However, there was no statistical change when compared with the rest of the Greater Rio in this period. Data of per capita Income from All Sources 2015 and 2016 Projected the present situation with the latest information available on , overcoming data lags. It happens as if we already had the PNADs informations of 2015 and 2016 Micro simulations provide a "model" on the scale of the Rio municipality and Greater Rio opened by Demographic variables (age, gender etc.). Population and income updates are applied to the total population and incomes brackets opened by up-to-date variables as gender and age* with PNADC and Administrative Records. Income updates are monthly and nominal, then deflated by inflation. We use the concept of per capita Household Income(RDPC), which is the basis of social welfare literature and poverty We incorporated sources of Income (Labour, Social Programs (Bolsa Família etc.), Social Security (below and above the minimum wage) Other Private Income (Rent, Food Pensions etc). 17

18 Interactive Softwares: Panorama and Simulator illustrate the research* results in a user-friendly and interactive way. Income Distribution Change Components Bolsa Família and Social Transfers Other Private Income Distribution Labor Social Security & BPC Simulator: select characteristics to estimate incomes and poverty lines 18

19 Social Development Poverty (All Sources Income): CPS/FGV Line Poverty: CPS/FGV Line - 0 to 4 years (%) 16 14,44 14, , ,7+ 19,81 -> ,41 -> Poverty: CPS/FGV Line - 10 to 14 years (%) Poverty: CPS/FGV Line 5 to 9 years (%) Poverty: CPS/FGV Line Below 15 years (%) 16 12, , , , ,58 -> ,55 -> Social Development Poverty: Controlled Chances (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio Rio Changes After ,1%** -55,1%** Pobreza Poverty linha CPS/FGV line Pobreza Poverty linha US$1,25 line dolares Rio Relative Changes After ,8%** -50,4%** Pobreza Poverty linha CPS/FGV line Pobreza Poverty linha US$1,25 1,25 line dolares Using CPS/FGV Poverty Line criterion, chances to be poor in Rio are 57,1% lower between Compared with the rest of Grater Rio during the same period, chances are 36,8% lower. 19

20 Social Development All Sources per capita Household Income (RDPC) All Sources RDPC - Poorest 177,03+ 89,22 All Sources RDPC - Poorest , ,42 -> > ,47 All Sources RDPC - to 9 All Sources RDPC - 1 Richest 1805, , ,4 -> ,2 4848,2 -> Rio Changes After 2008 Social Development per capita Household Income (RDPC): Controled Gains (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio 36,2%*** 24,*** 12,9%*** 12,*** 11,6%*** Economy of Scale All RDPC Sources RDPC RDPC (tetha (theta 0,5) Labor RDPC Trabalho Earnings RDPC Social Previdência Security RDPC RDPC RDPC Others Outras Sources RDPC Rio Relative Changes After ,*** 3,8%** 3,3%** All RDPC Sources RDPC Economy RDPC (tetha of Scale 0,5) Labor Earnings RDPC (theta 0,5) RDPC Trabalho RDPC Previdência RDPC Social Security RDPC RDPC Others Outras Sources RDPC Compared with 2008, Labor RDPC in Rio increased 24,46% until Compared with the rest of Greater Rio, during the same period, Labor RDPC increased 1. 20

21 18% 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% All Sources per capita Household Income (2) Controlled Variation of All Sources RDPC in Rio by Vintile Gain in 2016 compared with % 11,18% 14,98% 18,34% 16,8 15,9 15,47% 14,39% 14,22% 13,8 13,8 14,0 14,19% 12,89% 12,88% 12,97% 14,26% 14,6 14,4 12,34% % 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% (3) Relative Gain Capital x Periphery 2016 compared with , 5,49% 3,91% 3,31% 2,91% 3,72% 4,56% 7,3 5,73% poorest Vintile richest poorest Vintile richest Source: FGV Social/CPS with PNAD and PNAD Contínua/IBGE microdata and using Administrative Records Social Security per capita Household Income (2) Controlled Variation of Social Security RDPC in Rio by Vintile Gain in 2016 compared with (3) Relative Gain Capital x Periphery 2016 compared with ,59% 26,7 23,36% 21,41% 20,6 17,5 14,33% 12,71% 10,34% 8,54% 7,22% 4,63% 4,09% poorest Vintile richest poorest -5,72% -9,26% -8,39% -9,26% -11,22% -10,44% -9,7 Vintile Source: FGV Social/CPS with PNAD and PNAD Contínua/IBGE microdata and using Administrative Records richest 21

22 Other Sources per capita Household Income (2) Controlled Variation of Other Sources RDPC in Rio by Vintile Gain in 2016 compared with (3) Relative Gain Capital x Periphery 2016 compared with ,17% 44,7 45,44% 48,23% 51,99% 46,23% 40, 41,28% 41,26% 43,97% 46,02% 42,3 43,96% 39,98% 37,89% 28,52% 24,82% poorest Vintile richest richest -10 poorest Vintile Source: FGV Social/CPS with PNAD and PNAD Contínua/IBGE microdata and using Administrative Records ,34% -92,22% Social Development and Labor per capita Household Labor Earnings: Controlled Gains Rio Changes After (2) within the city of Rio; (3) cariocas compared with the rest of Greater Rio 23,3%*** 27,*** Labor RDPC Trabalho Earnings for dos wage Assalariados earners Labor RDPC Trabalho Earnings for dos Conta-própria e microentrepreneurs Empregadores 9,2%*** 17,3%*** Compared with 2008, Labor Earnings for wage earners in Rio raised 23,28%. Compared with the rest of Greater Rio in the same period, the gain was smaller, reaching 9,17%. Rio Relative Changes After Labor RDPC Trabalho Earnings for dos wage Assalariados earners Labor RDPC Trabalho Earnings for dos Conta-própria e microentrepreneurs Empregadores 22

23 3 3 per capita Household Labor Earnings (2) Controlled Variation in Rio by Vintile Gain in 2016 compared with % 16% 14% 12% (3) Relative Gain Capital x Periphery 2016 compared with ,3 31, 30,5 28,47% 27,46% 25,9 24,7 22,97% 22,39% 22,42% 21,94% 21,81% 22,5 23,33% 22,7 23,11% 24,58% 24,14% 19,96% poorest Vintile richest 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 8,36% 14,93% 16,17% 13,73% 12,03% 11,24% 9,58% 8,33% 8,88% 8,93% 7,58% 8,0 7,58% 8,53% 8,92% 11,62% 11,26% 11,56% 10, poorest Vintile Source: FGV Social/CPS with PNAD and PNAD Contínua/IBGE microdata and using Administrative Records richest Income and Labor Earnings Between 2008 and 2016 the per capita income in the municipality rose 30.3% against 18.2% of the other Greater Rio municipalities, and less than 2 for Brazil as a whole. And two thirds of Rio s city growth occurred in the last three years. In other words, the Rio economy, from the people s viewpoint, took some time to take off after the announcement of the Olympic venue, but once on course the growth process went on. The main driving force of income distribution has been the labor market, which accounts for 82% of the Rio s growth against 44.7% of the outskirts of Greater Rio. Of the 27 Brazilian capitals and 9 metropolitan peripheries, Rio has the highest increase in individual labor earnings since However, according to demographic forecasts, the problem is the proportion of the working-age population, is now dropping from Rio needs a new Post- Olympic project which improves the quality of education through integral schools and nurseries for the disadvantaged kids. Other line is to attract talents from outside the state a task that the Olympic event might help to achieve. 23

24 General Results Abstract: changes in the quality of life in Rio after the Olympic announcement can be summarized in a final social scoreboard of 36 advances and 2 setbacks, these related to the commuting time in the city. Of these 38 indicators, 24 are comparable before and after the announcement. Comparing econometrically the Rio changing patterns in relation to a control group made up of all other municipalities of the Greater Rio, it is noted that after the announcement the same score above was 18-1 in favor of Rio, with 5 statistical draws. However, before the announcement of Rio2016, that is, from 1992 to 2008, the ultimate social score was 7-10 with 7 draws. So there was a negative trend on the growth of comparable indicators of the city that was reversed after the Olympic announcement. Therefore, we cannot reject the hypothesis of a V shaped path of at least some of the main indicators in Rio: worsening before and improving after the Olympic announcement. 24

25 ZOOM ITIC World ITIC Geral No Data Brasil 27 States ITIC Geral Municipalities Brazil 92 Municipalities Rio State ITIC Geral ITIC Geral ITIC Geral Neighboorhoods Rio Municipality Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos dados do Gallup World Poll e Censo 2010 / IBGE ,97 95,53 90 Access to New CITs Technologies requires New Indexes 75, , , Has a Cellphone in the Houlsehold 66, Has a Personal Cellphone 63,05 51, , Has Computer with Internet Access to Internet in the last 3 monts 25