DUNA HOUSE BAROMETER. 1st half of the year 2015 The month of June Latest data of the Hungarian real estate market every month.

Transcription

1 BAROMETER 49th issue 1st half of the year 2015 The month of June 2015 Latest data of the Hungarian real estate market every month.

2 Contents: Executive Summary page 3 Transaction number and Demand Index page 4 Flat Index - Consolidated page 5 Flat Index - Regional page 6 Brick flats data st half of the year page 7 Panel flats data st half of the year page 8 Flat price data - June, Quality preference st half of the year page 9 Customer interest for the districts, bargain (June) page 10 Bargain rates broken down by Counties / Districts (half year data) page 11 Customer profile: Buyers page 12 Customer profile: Sellers page 13 Transaction parameters in Budapest page 14 Transaction parameters in the counties page 15 Privacy policy, expected issues page 16 2

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY According to Duna House estimates, the sales of June of this year - 12,184 transactions - were close to the record in real estate market. The actual sales surpass the results of one year ago by 40%, and almost by 70% the weakest June of the year 2013 after the crisis. So, the number of total sales of the first half of this year exceeds In the first half of 2014 were 45,700 transactions in the market, which means that this year s result was one and a half times higher than it was one year ago. The demand in June was as it is normal in this season, it means that it has been seen a decline compared to the previous month. Although the value of 94 points is the second lowest of this year, it exceeds the level of 81 percentage points of one year ago. The dynamic price increase is going to keep growing in Nationwide Flat Price Index. After a long stagnation on 81 percentage points from the middle of year 2014, the prices increased firstly slower and later stronger, and by the second quarter of this year, after another 4-point jump this index value came to 95 points. The National Panel Index continues to go sharply upward. A year ago, the index was only 78 percentage points, and later, quarter by quarter, it increased by strong jumps to a value of 99 points. In the previous quarter, the National Brick Flat Price Index jumped from the average level of around 85 points to 90 points, and arrived to 91 points growing by 1 point in the second quarter of the year. With one exception, all the price indexes in the country increased further. The exception is the Brick Flat Price Index of Eastern-Hungary, which decreased from the level of 88 of the previous quarter to the average 81 percentage points since At the same place, however, the Brick Flat Price Index increased further to 99 values. In the Western part of the country, the panel flats are on 83, and brick flats are on 90 points in nominal terms. The Budapest s price indexes are curving sharply upward. One year ago, the panel flats stagnated in the level of 83, and now, they show 119-point value with a strong increase, which means 94 percentage points in real terms. The brick flat s index also increased further in the first quarter of this year - it jumped from 102 points to 111 points. The Budapest Brick Flat Price Index is 87 percentage points in real terms. On the basis of the transactions averages of the first half of this year, the brick flats have been bought on the highest price in the country Gyor-Moson-Sopron County, 262 thousand Forints. This couldn t even be approached by the second most expensive Hajdú-Bihar County either, where the average was under 240 thousand. BAZ County had the lowest price, 103 thousand HUF/ sqm on average. The most expensive district in Budapest is District no. 5, with more than half a million Forints per square meter on average, in the first half of the year. It is so outstandingly high that the following locations are under 400 thousand. The cheapest are districts No. 20 and No. 21, a bit over 200 thousand HUF / sqm on average. In the countryside, the panel flats have been bought on the highest square meter price on average in Gyor-Moson-Sopron County in the first half of the year. Here, this flat type has been purchased on a price of 241 thousand HUF, which is even higher than the overall average in Budapest. Hajdu-Bihar county is the second most expensive for this flat type with 179 thousand HUF / sqm on average. Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén county has the lowest average value also in this category, where the average square meter price of the panel flats was 96 thousand HUF. District No. 11 in Budapest was the most expensive as far as panel flats, it has almost reached the level of 300 thousand Forints. The second was District No. 13 with 265 thousand HUF on average, and then came District No. 16 with 257 thousand HUF. On the basis of the data of the first half of the year, all flat types in all, the most bargains were in Jasz-Nagykun-Szolnok County, as here the buyers were even able to shave a tenth of the price before the deal. 6-8% was more typical in all the country; however there were three areas which showed a low level of bargain, 4%, as Counties Vas, Veszprém and the whole city of Budapest. In the capital city, after a 1-2% price reduction buyers were able to bargain only 3-5%. The highest level of bargain was present in Districts no. 23 and the most expensive district No. 5. In June, buyers with investment purposes in Budapest still had a very high rate. One sale in two is made with this purpose, while the second largest group is the first home buyers, with 25% of the buyers. Not only the presence of investors was high, but the average price of the real estate properties they have purchased, which was close to 21 million Forints per flats. In the countryside, there was not much change in the purchase motivation; the bigger one is still moving into a bigger flat, they are 28% of buyers, followed by investors, 23%. Here approx. one out of five buyers is first flat buyer. The investors in the country spent a much lower average price than in the capital city, which means more precisely, a little more than 9 million Forints per flat. On the basis of parameters of sold real estate properties in Buda side in the first half of the year, 27% purchased on a price above 400 thousand HUF / sqm. In the first half of year 2014, the figure was only 14%. At the same place, the demand for larger properties with a floor area of over 160 m2 increased from 5 to 8% in the comparison of two halves of year, Pest has a similar situation in higher price ranges: The range of 400 thousand HUF / sqm increased from 4 to 11% in one year, but also the other higher ranges above 200 thousand HUF had a high growth. In both cases, the visible price increase pushed up the ranges. In the countryside, the price increase can be detected in the parameters of comparison, but obviously in the lower price ranges. Here, the proportion of ranges between thousand HUF / sqm increased from 32% to 38%. It is also noticeable In Pest County, in the comparison of two halves of year, namely in the price ranges over 200 thousand HUF / sqm. At the same place, the presence of a large properties with a floor area of over 160 m2 it has not changed much, in the first half of year 2014, it was 11% of the total sales and this year it is 10% of the total sales. Further information: Gábor Rutai PR and analysis leader rutai.gabor@dh.hu Mobile:

4 TRANSACTION NUMBER AND DEMAND INDEX DH -TB (Duna House Transaction number Bargain) According to Duna House estimates, the sales of June of this year were close to the record in real estate market. Only this year s March sales were slightly higher. By this time last year, approx properties changed hands, which was already the first phase of the renascent market. The actual sales surpass the results of one year ago by 40%, and almost by 70% the weakest June of the year 2013 after the crisis. So, the number of total sales of the first half of this year exceeds 68,300. In the first half of year 2014, 45,700 transactions have been made in the market, which means that this year s result was one and a half times higher than it was one year ago. If we consider the usual seasonality and the impact of family home making discount (CSOK) which has just been launched today; and on the basis of the current results, this year the market could reach the level of 150 thousand transactions. DH-TB method The most important indicator number of real estate market conditions is the annual transaction number of buying and selling. The DH-TE is an estimate, which shows an approximate mid-year data. The estimate and is based on the monthly transaction numbers of Duna House, and it also contains professional corrections, that can have an effect on its actual market share. These can be as follows: CSO (KSH) data referring to individuals, the effect of the exchange rate of Swiss franc to the real estate market, the rate of priority mandates, loan disbursement data by MNB and the performance of Duna House Hitel Centrum (loan centre), the ratio of purchases made by loan/cash, sample checks made by the Land Registry Office, etc. DH - Demand Index The demand in June was as it is normal in this season, it means that it has been seen a decline compared to the previous month. Although the value of 94 points is the second lowest of this year, it exceeds the level of 81 percentage points of one year ago. 4

5 FLAT INDEXES The dynamic price increase is going to keep growing in Nationwide Flat Price Index. After a long stagnation on 81 percentage points from the middle of year 2014, the prices increased firstly slower and later stronger, and by the second quarter of this year, after another 4-point jump this index value came to 95 points. Thus, it is only 5% from the pre-crisis level in nominal terms, in real terms; however, it is still 25%. The dynamic increase is primarily due to the panel flats price increase, although the brick flats prices also rose in almost every area. DH - Nationalwide Flat Price Index About our Flat Price index: We use a method to calculate our Flat Price Index, which tries to fully eliminate all differences existing among the types of real estates. Similar price indexes basically use normal averages that ignore the changing elements of the transactions. To calculate the Duna House Flat Price Indexes we used a so called hedonic method where we take the structure of the real estate, its condition (on a 1-5 scale), and size, year of construction, floor and location parameters into consideration. The weighting of the consumer groups formed this way remains the same on the time scale. To weight the nationwide indexes we use the regional rate of transaction numbers published by KSH. National Flat Price Index The National Panel Index continues to go sharply upward. A year ago, the index was only 78 percentage points, and later quarter by quarter it increased by strong jumps to a value of 99 points. In the previous quarter, the National Brick Flat Price Index jumped from the average level of around 85 points to 90 points, and arrived to 91 points growing by 1 point in the second quarter of the year. DH - NATIONWIDE PANEL INDEX DH - NATIONWIDE BRICK INDEX 5

6 FLAT INDEX - REGIONAL With one exception, all the price indexes in the country increased further. The exception is the Brick Flat Price Index of Eastern-Hungary, which decreased from the level of 88 of the previous quarter to the average 81 percentage points since At the same place, however, the Brick Flat Price Index increased further to 99 values. In the Western part of the country, the panel flats are on 83, and brick flats are on 90 points in nominal terms. EASTERN HUNGARY PANEL INDEX EASTERN HUNGARY BRICK INDEX WESTERN HUNGARY PANEL INDEX NYUGAT - MAGYARORSZÁGI TÉGLA INDEX National Flat Price Index The Budapest s price indexes are curving sharply upward. One year ago, the panel flats stagnated in the level of 83, and now, they show 119-point value with a strong increase, which means 94 percentage points in real terms. The brick flat s index also increased further in the first quarter of this year - it jumped from 102 points to 111 points. The Budapest Brick Flat Price Index is 87 percentage points in real terms. DH - BUDAPEST PANEL INDEX DH- BUDAPEST BRICK INDEX 6

7 Brick flats data - 1st quarter of year 2015 County m 2 price unit price time of sale (day) Bács-Kiskun Baranya Békés Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén Budapest Csongrád Fejér Győr-Moson-Sopron Hajdú-Bihar Heves Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok Komárom-Esztergom Pest Somogy Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg Tolna Vas Veszprém Zala On the basis of averages of the transactions of the first half of this year, the brick flats have been bought on the highest price in the country Gyor-Moson-Sopron County, 262 thousand Forints. This couldn t even be approached by the second most expensive Hajdú-Bihar County either, where the average was under 240 thousand. BAZ County had the lowest price, 103 thousand HUF/ sqm on average. The most expensive district in Budapest is District no. 5, with more than half a million Forints per square meter on average, in the first half of the year. It is so outstandingly high that the following locations are under 400 thousand. The cheapest are districts No. 20 and No. 21, a bit over 200 thousand HUF / sqm on average. District m 2 price unit price time of sale (day) District no. 01, Budapest District no. 02, Budapest District no. 03, Budapest District no. 04, Budapest District no. 05, Budapest District no. 06, Budapest District no. 07, Budapest District no. 08, Budapest District no. 9, Budapest District no. 10, Budapest District no. 11, Budapest District no. 12, Budapest District no. 13, Budapest District no. 14, Budapest District no. 15, Budapest District no. 16, Budapest District no. 17, Budapest District no. 18, Budapest District no. 19, Budapest District no. 20, Budapest District no. 21, Budapest District no. 22, Budapest

8 Panel flats data - 1st quarter of year 2015 County m 2 price unit price time of sale (day) Bács-Kiskun Baranya Békés Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén Budapest Csongrád Fejér Győr-Moson-Sopron Hajdú-Bihar Heves Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok Komárom-Esztergom Pest Somogy Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg Tolna Vas Veszprém Zala District m 2 price unit price time of sale (day) District no. 03, Budapest District no. 04, Budapest District no. 08, Budapest District no. 09, Budapest District no. 10, Budapest District no. 11, Budapest District no. 13, Budapest District no. 14, Budapest District no. 15, Budapest District no. 16, Budapest District no. 17, Budapest District no. 18, Budapest District no. 19, Budapest District no. 20, Budapest District no. 21, Budapest District no. 22, Budapest In the countryside, the panel flats have been bought on the highest square meter price on average in Gyor-Moson-Sopron County in the first half of the year. Here, this flat type has been purchased on a price of 241 thousand HUF, which is even higher than the overall average in Budapest. Hajdu-Bihar county is the second most expensive for this flat type with 179 thousand HUF / sqm on average. Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén county has the lowest average value also in this category, where the average square meter price of the panel flats was 96 thousand HUF. District No. 11 in Budapest was the most expensive as far as panel flats; it has almost reached the level of 300 thousand Forints. The second was District No. 13 with 265 thousand HUF on average, and then came District No. 16 with 257 thousand HUF. 8

9 FLAT DATA - June 2015 In June, the panel flats have been bought for 134 thousand HUF /sqm in Eastern-Hungary, 146 thousand HUF/sqm in the Western part of the country, the same category of flat has been bought for 229 thousand HUF/sqm in Pest, and 264 thousand HUF/sqm in Buda. As far as brick flats, the square meter price was 161 thousand in Eastern, 200 thousand in Western, and 385 thousand in Buda side, 293 thousand in Pest side and 422 thousand HUF in Budapest city centre. Panel flat nationwide The month of June 2015 Flat price m 2 price Time of sale /day East West Brick flat nationwide The month of June 2015 East West Panel flat Budapest The month of June 2015 Flat price m 2 price Time of sale /day Buda Pest Brick flat Budapest The month of June 2015 Buda Pest Budapest Centre QUALITY PREFERENCE - 1st half of the year 2015 Fejér and Tolna Counties had the highest rate of the renewable flats; one out of ten buyers has chosen this category. In the first half of year 2014, by contrast the figure was only 1% in Szabolcs Szatmár - Bereg County. In the other end of the quality scale there are the new build properties which have taken the largest proportion in Gyor- Moson- Sopron and Vas counties, where approx. one out of ten flats was in this category. In the capital city only 3% was the newly built flats fate, more than one out of four flats was very good quality used flat. New Very good Good Acceptable Needs renovation 9

10 Customer interest for the districts June 2015 District may june Dist. 01, Budapest 9,1% 9,1% Dist. 02, Budapest 15,7% 14,9% Dist. 03, Budapest 11,6% 11,6% Dist. 04, Budapest 7,5% 7,9% Dist. 01, Budapest 12,4% 12,2% Dist. 06, Budapest 17,9% 17,4% Dist. 07, Budapest 17,1% 17,0% Dist. 08, Budapest 12,1% 11,9% Dist. 09, Budapest 15,4% 14,7% Dist. 10, Budapest 6,0% 6,7% Dist. 11, Budapest 17,6% 17,3% Dist. 12, Budapest 13,7% 12,1% Dist. 13, Budapest 19,1% 18,9% Dist. 14, Budapest 17,0% 17,3% Dist. 15, Budapest 7,4% 7,8% Dist. 16, Budapest 6,5% 6,2% Dist. 17, Budapest 4,5% 4,4% Dist. 18, Budapest 8,2% 8,2% Dist. 19, Budapest 7,5% 7,9% Dist. 20, Budapest 5,6% 6,5% Dist. 21, Budapest 3,6% 4,6% Dist. 22, Budapest 4,3% 4,2% Dist. 23, Budapest 1,4% 2,3% Method: Our potential buyers mark districts (can be several ones!), that can be of their interest with our realtor at a personal meeting. We use these data to create the popularity map shown above. The favourite of the potential buyers in the capital city was again District no. 13, because about 19% of the potential buyers indicated that as a suitable location. Districts no. 6, 7, 11 and 14 were not far, up to 17% of the potential buyers wanted to purchase flats here. Three districts conducted under a 5% level of popularity, namely District no. 21, 22 and 23. BARGAIN - JUNE 2015 HOUSE Change of target price Bargain Budapest 3% 6% County Pest 4% 7% In the country 4% 12% In June, the best bargain could be reached in case of family houses in the countryside, as the average buyer bargain was 12%. Regarding the same flat type, the average bargain was 7% in Pest County, and 6% in Budapest. Both, the panel and brick flats were characterized by low bargain-value. After approx. 1% price reduction, buyers could only shave off 3-4% of the price before the deal. PANEL Budapest 1% 3% In the country 1% 4% TÉGLA Budapest 1% 4% In the country 2% 4% ÖSSZES Budapest 1% 4% In June, the best bargain could be reached in case of family houses in the countryside, as the average buyer bargain was 12%. Regarding the same flat type, the average bargain was 7% in Pest County, and 6% in Budapest. Both, the panel and brick flats were characterized by low bargain-value. After approx. 1% price reduction, buyers could only shave off 3-4% of the price before the deal. In the country 3% 7% 10

11 BARGAIN I. félévben The map shows the full price change: Target price change + bargain District m 2 price unit price District no. 01, Budapest 2% 6% District no. 02, Budapest 2% 4% District no. 03, Budapest 1% 3% District no. 04, Budapest 1% 3% District no. 05, Budapest 0% 6% District no. 06, Budapest 1% 5% District no. 07, Budapest 2% 3% District no. 08, Budapest 2% 3% District no. 09, Budapest 1% 3% District no. 10, Budapest 2% 3% District no. 11, Budapest 1% 4% District no. 12, Budapest 2% 4% District no. 13, Budapest 1% 6% District no. 14, Budapest 2% 5% District no. 15, Budapest 2% 4% District no. 16, Budapest 2% 5% District no. 17, Budapest 2% 4% District no. 18, Budapest 2% 5% District no. 19, Budapest 2% 3% District no. 20, Budapest 2% 4% District no. 21, Budapest 1% 4% District no. 22, Budapest 0% 6% District no. 23, Budapest 4% 7% County Change of target price Bargain Bács-Kiskun 2% 7% Baranya 3% 6% Békés 5% 9% Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén 4% 7% Budapest 2% 4% Csongrád 3% 9% Fejér 3% 7% Győr-Moson-Sopron 2% 7% Hajdú-Bihar 2% 5% Heves 5% 9% Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok 4% 10% Komárom-Esztergom 4% 8% Pest 5% 8% Somogy 2% 6% Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg 3% 7% Tolna 5% 9% Vas 2% 4% Veszprém 2% 4% Zala 5% 7% On the basis of the data of the first half of the year, all flat types in all, the most bargains was in Jasz-Nagykun- Szolnok county, as here the buyers were even able to shave a tenth of the price before the deal. 6-8% was more typical in all the country; however there were three areas which showed a low level of bargain, 4%, as Counties Vas, Veszprém and the whole city of Budapest. In the capital city, after a 1-2% price reduction buyers were able to bargain only 3-5%. The highest level of bargain was present in Districts no. 23 and the most expensive district No

12 Customer profile Buyers in June In June, buyers with investment purposes in Budapest still had a very high rate. One sale in two is made with this purpose, while the second largest group is the first home buyers, with 25% of the buyers. Not only the presence of investors was high, but the average price of the real estate properties they have purchased, which was close to 21 million Forints per flats. BUYERS AGE - Budapest. BUYERS STATUS - Budapest. BUYERS STATUS - Budapest Entrepreneur Investment Employed Middle manager Top manager Pensioners Student Buy first flat Moving in bigger flat Generations separation Moving in smaller flat Divorce Generations moving in together AGE STATUS Student Pensioners Top manager Middle manager Employee Entrepreneur LIFE SITUATION Generations moving in together Divorce Moving in smaller flat Generations' separation Moving in bigger flat Buy first flat Investment In the countryside, there was not much change in the purchase motivation, the bigger one is still moving into a bigger flat, they are 28% of buyers, followed by investors, 23%. Here approx. one out of five buyers is first flat buyer. The investors in the country spent a much lower average price than in the capital city, which means more precisely, a little more than 9 million Forints per flat. BUYERS AGE - countryside BUYERS STATUS - countryside REASONE FOR BUYING - countryside Employed Moving in bigger flat Entrepreneur Investment Middle manager Buy first flat Moving in smaller flat Pensioners Divorce Top manager Generations separation Student Generations moving in together AGE STATUS Top manager Student Middle manager Entrepreneur Pensioners ÉLETHELYZET ÁTLAGÁR M2 Generations separation Divorce Generations moving in together Moving in smaller flat Buy first flat Investment Employee Moving in bigger flat

13 CUSTOMER PROFIL: SELLERS IN JUNE 37% of the sellers in Budapest said that they wanted to move into a bigger flat and 30% thought to move into a smaller one. One out of five sellers sold an inherited property. There was a high proportion of pensioner sellers; they were 41% of all sales. SELLERS AGE - Budapest SELLERS STATUS - Budapest REASON FOR SELLING - Budapest Employed Entrepreneur Pensioners Moving in bigger flat Moving in smaller flat Sale of inherited property Generations separation Sell because prepayment Middle manager Generations moving in together Top manager Divorce AGE STATUS Top manager Middle manager Entrepreneur Employee Pensioners LIFE SITUATION Divorce Generations moving in together Sell because prepayment Generations separation Moving in smaller flat Kisebbe költözés Moving in bigger flat Also in the countryside, the intention of moving into a bigger flat was the main intention of sales, 30% of all transactions. 28% of sellers sold heritage and 24% said that they would move into a smaller flat. Most sellers (42%) declared themselves as employees, and the proportion of pensioners was 34% in the country SELLERS AGE - countryside SELLERS STATUS - countryside REASONE FOR SELLING - countryside Employed Moving in bigger flat Sale of inherited property Pensioners Moving in smaller flat Entrepreneur Divorce Middle manager Sell because prepayment Generations separation Top manager Generations moving in together AGE STATUS Top manager LIFE SITUATION Generations moving in together Middle manager Entrepreneur Pensioners Generations separation Sell because prepayment Divorce Moving in smaller flat Employee Sale of inherited property Moving in bigger flat

14 TRANSACTION PARAMETERS - BUDAPEST On the basis of parameters of sold real estate properties in Buda side in the first half of the year, 27% purchased on a price above 400 thousand HUF / sqm. In the first half of year 2014, the figure was only 14%. At the same place, the demand for larger properties with a floor area of over 160 m2 increased from 5 to 8% in the comparison of two halves of year. Pest has a similar situation in higher price ranges: The range of 400 thousand HUF / sqm increased from 4 to 11% in one year, but also the other higher ranges above 200 thousand HUF had a high growth. In both cases, the visible price increase pushed up the ranges BUDA PEST Flat size (m 2 ) Flat size (m 2 ) Price / m 2 (thousand HUF) Price / m 2 (thousand HUF) Flat price (million HUF) Flat price (million HUF) 1st half of the year st half of the year

15 Transaction parameters - COUNTRY In the countryside, the price increase can be detected in the parameters of comparison, but obviously in the lower price ranges. Here, the proportion of ranges between thousand HUF / sqm increased from 32% to 38%. It is also noticeable In Pest County, in the comparison of two halves of year, namely in the price ranges over 200 thousand HUF / sqm. At the same place, the presence of a large properties with a floor area of over 160 m2 it has not changed much, in the first half of year 2014, it was 11% of the total sales and this year it is 10% of the total sales. Nationwide (without Central Hungary) COUNTY PEST Flat size (m 2 ) Flat size (m 2 ) Price / m 2 (thousand HUF) Price / m 2 (thousand HUF) Flat price (million HUF) Flat price (million HUF) 1st half of the year st half of the year

16 PRIVACY POLICY Statistics and estimates published in Duna House Barometer are the sole property of Duna House. Statistics and estimates of Duna House Barometer were only meant to provide information; Duna House does not accept any responsibility for their completeness and correctness. Statistical information and estimates published in Duna House Barometer can be used for private use; anyone can use it for their own discretion freely with the following conditions: Statistics and estimates published in Duna House Barometer cannot be changed, they can only be published in an unchanged format. Statistics and estimates published in Duna House Barometer can only be published with marking their source: Source: Duna House Barometer must be placed in the beginning or at the end of the text. The text surrounding it must, if there is any, undoubtfully point at Duna House Barometer, as a source. Any different usages from the above conditions are considered unlawful, therefore punishable according to civil law. Duna House can demand the termination of unlawful activities and full compensation for damages caused. In case of breaking rules concerning links, Duna House has the right to immediately delete the link pointing at its web site and demand compensation for damages caused. EXPECTED ISSUES Time of issue Topic August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 July 2015 data August 2015 data 2015 Data of 3rd quarter of year (extended content) Duna House Barometer is available on our web site ( on the 8th of every month (if at the weekend, then on the next business day). If you would like to receive Duna House Real Estate Barometer regularly or download our previous issues please visit our web site: 16