THE ROLE OF A GUARANTEED INCOME ON HOMELESSNESS SHELTER USERS DANIEL DUTTON, UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY, SPP APRIL 19, 2017

Transcription

1 THE ROLE OF A GUARANTEED INCOME ON HOMELESSNESS SHELTER USERS DANIEL DUTTON, UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY, SPP APRIL 19, 2017

2 GUARANTEED INCOME? Some amount of money per year More general than basic income In Canada? Demogrants are the current form in Canada, seniors. OAS (age-based) Not a demogrant: CPP (past work experience)

3 WHAT DO OUR PLANS LOOK LIKE? Old Age Security/Guaranteed Income Supplement: Upon turning 65, with few requirements, receive an amount of money from the government that scales back with income - ~$580/month; GIS (single and no income?) ~$860 Canada Pension Plan: Throughout working life contribute to CPP from paycheques - (Max ~ $1060/month; avg is 50% max) Eligible at 65, can take early with penalty All numbers from Service Canada

4 WHO SHOULD THESE PLANS HELP? Those for whom the money represents a real gain: GAI leads to better self-reported physical and mental health vs. conditional income assistance (e.g., welfare) - This analysis limited to those with < $20K/year GAI halves food insecurity prevalence. (Next slide) McIntyre et al. Impact of a guaranteed annual income program on Canadian seniors physical, mental and functional health. CJPH, McIntyre et al. Reduction of Food Insecurity among Low-Income Canadian Seniors as a Likely Impact of a Guaranteed Annual Income. CPP, 2016

5 HALVING FOOD INSECURITY PREVALENCE Figure 1 Probability of FI over age from McIntyre et al CPP 0.4 Note: <$20K here too 0.35 Age of eligibility for OAS Fitted Probability of Food Insecurity Fitted probability Baseline prob Average post 65 prob

6 SHELTER USER PREVALENCE Since GAI is shown as having impacts in other realms, maybe shelter users too? Can we prevent shelter use through a GAI?

7 DATA CHF provided information on emergency shelter utilization by age and gender. Also includes cluster or population (Transitional/Episodic/Chronic) SPSD/M [Statistics Canada] provided general population demographics

8 RATIO VS. COUNT The number of individuals using emergency shelter for the first time by age is decreasing with age Number of new "transitional" shelter users; males by age But we want to see the number of people as a share of the population at risk

9 SO WHAT DOES THAT RATIO SHOW? 1.2 Incidence of Transitional Shelter Users for Single Adult Male Households by Age in Calgary New shelter contacts per 1000 households All HH 0.2 Age of eligibility for OAS

10 SO WHAT DOES THAT RATIO SHOW? 1.2 Incidence of Transitional Shelter Users for Single Adult Male Households by Age in Calgary New shelter contacts per 1000 households All HH Pre-60 Average Post-60 Average

11 WHAT HAPPENS TO LOW INCOME HOUSEHOLDS OVER AGE? 0.6 Share of single male HH in AB with income < LICO

12 GAI EFFECTIVE POVERTY REDUCER Seniors in Canada have done well by international standards and over time. Role of transfers like GAI is the difference between red and black lines. Conference Board of Canada, Elderly Poverty

13 SHELTER USERS ARE SPECIAL Relatively extreme situation vs. general population of seniors means we observe more early CPP takers (and observe decrease at age 60) Small, stable source of income can have large impact on incidence. When thinking about shelter use incidence, think about those at risk of income shock (Ellen and O Flaherty, How To House The Homeless, 2010, Russell Sage Foundation.)

14 WHAT NOW? These results are extremely preliminary Women Questions/Comments welcome