Technology, Productivity, and Labor Market Outcomes in the United States
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1 Technology, Productivity, and Labor Market Outcomes in the United States Where are we (and where are we not) seeing the effects of technology? Bill Wascher Federal Reserve Board
2 Labor Market Outcomes
3 Prime age labor force participation rates
4 Male labor force participation rate by level of educ. attainment
5 Wages by level of educational attainment
6 Changes in LFPRs Across Countries
7 Contributing Factors Demand side Technology: Increasing output and falling employment Trade: Falling output and employment Evidence for manufacturing (Fort, Pierce, and Schott, 2018; Flaan, forthcoming)
8 Manufacturing Employment
9
10
11
12 Changes in LFPRs Across Countries
13 Contributing Factors Demand side Trade: Falling output and employment Technology: Increasing output and falling employment Supply side Changes in family labor supply Disability insurance Criminal records Opioid crisis Video games
14
15
16 Prime Age Unemployment Rates by Metropolitan Status
17 Unemployment Rate Gap (Non Metro Minus Metropolitan Unemployment) by Education
18 Prime Age LFPR by Metropolitan Status
19 LFPR Gap (Metropolitan Minus Non Metro LFPR) by Education
20 Ratio of Metropolitan to Non Metropolitan Average Wages, by Skill
21 The Gig Economy
22 OVERVIEW OF THE INFORMAL ONLINE AND OFFLINE ECONOMY The Changing Work Ecosystem Source: Dourado and Koopman, Evaluating the Growth of the 1099 Workforce, Mercatus Center, George Mason University, December 2015
23 Number of Uber Drivers Has Grown Exponentially Source: Cramer (2015), Hall and Krueger (2015),
24 Left Scale
25 Survey of Enterprising and Informal Work Activities (EIWA) Community Development and Consumer & Community Development Research Division of Consumer & Community Affairs The analysis and conclusions set forth in this presentation are our own and do not indicate concurrence of the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Banks, or their staff.
26 ENTERPRISING & INFORMAL WORK ACTIVITIES Selling New/Used Goods is the Most Common Online E&I Work Activity In the last 6 months, have you been paid for the following? Renting out property, such as your car, your place of residence, or other items you own, through websites, newspaper ads, flyers, etc. Completing online tasks through websites, such asamazon Services, Mechanical Turk, Fiverr, Rabbit, Task YouTube. Such tasks might include editing documents, reviewing resumes, writing songs, Selling new/used goods, handcrafts, etc., onlinethrough ebay, Craigslist, or other websites 11% 13% 32% Other online paid activities [text box] 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Asked of all E&I respondents. n = 2,483 26
27 SIDE, GIG & INFORMAL WORK ACTIVITIES 81% of Respondents Spend One to 20 Hours on Informal Work Activities Each Month 7% 4% 3% hours % hours Asked of all E&I respondents. n = 2,483 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 31% 1 Hours 2-20 hours hours
28 SIDE, GIG & INFORMAL WORK ACTIVITIES Respondents Receive Monthly Income from Participation in Informal Activities Work How much of your household monthly income do you usually get from paid work activities or side employment? >40% Monthly Income 21% - 40% Monthly Income 11% - 20% Monthly Income 6% - 10% Monthly Income 1% - 5% Monthly Income 0% Monthly Income 4% 5% 8% 10% Asked of all E&I respondents. n = 2,483 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 28 32% 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
29 Wages and Productivity
30 Wage growth
31
32 10. Labor productivity growth is low
33 12. Sources of the slowing in productivity growth
34 11. Productivity slowdown is global
35 Explanations for slower growth in innovation? Growing statistical mismeasurement of real output? Does GDP omit the value of recent innovations? Perhaps, but recent research casts doubt on mismeasurement as a first order story Structural factors that predate the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Recent technology (e.g. information technology) might be less revolutionary than earlier general purpose technologies (e.g. electricity) Reallocation of capital and labor may have become more sluggish Lingering effects from the severe GFC R&D fell sharply during the GFC, partly in response to tight financial conditions and weak demand. R&D declines tend to induce gradual and persistent declines in innovation
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