SUPPLEMENTARY ONLINE APPENDIX FOR: TECHNOLOGY AND COLLECTIVE ACTION: THE EFFECT OF CELL PHONE COVERAGE ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN AFRICA
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1 SUPPLEMENTARY ONLINE APPENDIX FOR: TECHNOLOGY AND COLLECTIVE ACTION: THE EFFECT OF CELL PHONE COVERAGE ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN AFRICA
2 1. CELL PHONES AND PROTEST The Afrobarometer survey asks whether respondents never, less than once a month, a few times a month, a few times a week or every day use a cell phone. In addition, the survey includes a question on protest behavior, i.e whether respondents have or would have participated in a demonstration or protest march in the last year, ranging from No, would never do this to Yes, often on a 0-4 ordinal scale. Table 1 presents the cross tabulation of both variables for respondents that chose to answer each question. Table 2 shows a simple linear regression, controlling for the respondent s employment status, age, education and internet usage. 2
3 TABLE 1. Cross Tab for Cell Phone Use and Protest Behavior Protest / Cell Phone Usage Never Less than once a month A few times a month A few times a week Every day Total Never % 51.66% 51.90% 51.43% 49.03% No, but would % 34.48% 35.94% 35.93% 35.20% Yes, once or twice % 7.73% 6.96% 6.64% 8.28% Yes, several times % 3.68% 3.66% 3.81% 4.86% Yes, often % 2.45% 1.55% 2.19% 2.63% Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% TABLE 2. Cell Phone Usage and Protest Behavior (Intercept) ( ) Employment Status (2.567) Age ( 2.004) Education (0.821) Internet Usage (7.747) Cell Phone Usage (8.495) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
4 2. SUMMARY STATISTICS 4
5 TABLE 3. Summary Statistics Variable Mean Std.Dev Min Max pre-2000 Conflict Pct Mountainous Border Distance Capital Distance Population in Pct Irrigation GDP pc in Cell Phone Coverage in Conflict Dummy in Conflict 2008 Count
6 3. ADDITIONAL TABLES 6
7 TABLE 4. Spatial Binary Models Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Logit Mixed Logit OLS FE, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 1.695) Spatial Lag (16.517) (16.436) (19.002) (17.579) (11.359) pre-2000 Conflict (2.204) (2.182) (2.950) (3.626) (2.408) Border Distance (0.475) (0.496) (0.495) ( 0.467) ( 2.198) Capital Distance (1.822) (1.821) (1.888) (1.121) (0.614) Population (3.705) (3.577) (4.583) (4.865) (2.451) Pct Mountainous (4.904) (4.914) (4.853) (5.148) (4.228) Pct Irrigation ( 1.438) ( 1.336) ( 1.613) ( 2.123) ( 2.803) GDP pc ( 3.889) ( 3.834) ( 4.088) ( 3.678) ( 0.257) Cell Phone Coverage (1.572) (1.608) (1.516) (4.476) (3.074) Mean Cell Coverage ( 5.803) Country Fixed Effects No No No No Y es AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N TABLE 5. Count DV Models Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) pre-2000 Conflict (6.151) (36.757) (0.843) (24.258) Border Distance (1.585) ( 0.555) (1.357) ( 0.696) Capital Distance (1.394) (3.010) (0.560) (3.350) Population (4.222) (13.285) (3.290) (10.216) Pct Mountainous (7.596) (4.994) (2.877) (5.065) Pct Irrigation ( 2.580) ( 1.934) ( 2.192) ( 0.685) GDP pc ( 3.077) ( 5.404) ( 3.208) ( 5.601) Cell Phone Coverage (3.845) (1.898) (2.852) (3.431) Spatial Lag (8.635) (30.193) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
8 TABLE 6. Binary DV Models, Natural Resources Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Effects Logit Mixed Effects Logit Fixed Effects OLS, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( 20.87) ( ) ( ) ( 1.639) pre-2000 Conflict (1.952) (1.931) (5.948) (6.465) (3.048) Border Distance (0.585) (0.621) (0.620) ( 0.640) ( 2.801) Capital Distance (2.234) (2.245) (2.302) (1.571) (0.089) Population (2.820) (2.693) (4.174) (4.587) (2.494) Pct Mountainous (8.537) (8.537) (8.610) (8.907) (5.341) Pct Irrigation ( 2.183) ( 1.992) ( 2.126) ( 2.667) ( 3.573) GDP pc ( 4.304) ( 4.269) ( 6.042) ( 4.531) ( 0.546) Diamonds e ( ) (1.112e+06) ( 0.024) ( 0.024) ( 2.262) Oil (3.679) (3.745) (4.387) (3.783) (1.238) Cell Phone Coverage (2.773) (2.808) (2.745) (7.164) (5.758) Mean Cell Coverage ( 8.348) Country Fixed Effects No No No No Y es AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
9 TABLE 7. Count DV Models, Natural Resources Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) pre-2000 Conflict (5.920) (36.612) Border Distance (1.437) ( 0.699) Capital Distance (1.371) (2.944) Population (3.859) (12.546) Pct Mountainous (7.737) (5.062) Pct Irrigation ( 2.714) ( 2.140) GDP pc ( 3.041) ( 5.634) Diamond ( ) ( ) Oil (2.156) (2.194) Cell Phone Coverage (3.631) (2.150) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
10 TABLE 8. Spatial Binary and Count Models, Natural Resources Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Logit Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Spatial Lag (15.645) (15.55) (16.828) (7.528) (29.382) pre-2000 Conflict (2.399) (2.361) (3.785) (1.739) (25.297) Border Distance (0.553) (0.572) ( 0.345) (1.633) ( 0.846) Capital Distance (1.526) (1.530) (0.906) ( 0.209) (3.348) Population (3.623) (3.514) (4.647) (3.075) (10.328) Pct Mountainous (5.032) (5.039) (5.169) (3.156) (5.131) Pct Irrigation ( 1.654) ( 1.552) ( 2.284) ( 2.401) ( 0.885) GDP pc ( 4.216) ( 4.152) ( 3.704) ( 2.299) ( 5.897) Diamonds e ( ) (1.429e+06) ( 0.024) ( ) ( ) Oil (1.840) (1.896) (1.922) (0.396) (0.374) Cell Phone Coverage (1.601) (1.635) (4.525) (2.828) (3.507) Mean Cell Coverage ( 5.841) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
11 TABLE 9. Binary DV Models, Excluded Ethnicity Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Effects Logit Mixed Effects Logit Fixed Effects OLS, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 3.412) ( 1.682) pre-2000 Conflict (1.683) (1.666) (5.306) (8.725) (2.982) Border Distance ( 0.032) ( 0.004) ( 0.041) ( 2.868) ( 2.821) Capital Distance (1.323) (1.332) (1.719) ( 1.048) ( 0.322) Population (2.609) (2.490) (4.580) (4.606) (2.518) Pct Mountainous (7.064) (7.058) (8.110) (4.382) (4.719) Pct Irrigation ( 1.804) ( 1.614) ( 1.906) ( 1.766) ( 2.867) GDP pc ( 2.901) ( 2.864) ( 4.591) ( 2.087) ( 3.436) Ethnicities excluded (3.150) (3.134) (4.229) (2.710) (1.604) Cell Phone Coverage (3.020) (3.043) (3.657) (4.806) (5.811) Mean Cell Coverage ( 1.109) Country Fixed Effects No No No No Y es AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
12 TABLE 10. Count DV Models, Excluded Ethnicity Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) pre-2000 Conflict (5.918) (33.957) Border Distance (0.940) ( 1.751) Capital Distance (0.839) (1.516) Population (4.085) (11.993) Pct Mountainous (7.435) (7.143) Pct Irrigation ( 2.524) ( 2.454) GDP pc ( 2.378) ( 4.074) Ethnicities excluded (3.451) (5.496) Cell Phone Coverage (4.097) (2.741) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
13 TABLE 11. Spatial Binary and Count Models, Ethnicity Excluded Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Logit Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Spatial Lag (13.589) (13.481) (13.803) (8.815) (20.782) pre-2000 Conflict (3.020) (2.979) (4.369) (1.895) (27.742) Border Distance (0.813) (0.840) (0.105) (1.883) ( 1.075) Capital Distance (0.644) (0.657) (0.568) ( 0.331) (3.315) Population (3.610) (3.458) (4.415) (2.741) (9.326) Pct Mountainous (5.239) (5.235) (5.048) (3.802) (10.130) Pct Irrigation ( 1.653) ( 1.511) ( 2.188) ( 2.310) ( 2.278) GDP pc ( 2.957) ( 2.912) ( 2.504) ( 2.632) ( 6.132) Ethnicities excluded (0.804) (0.807) (0.252) (1.508) (3.123) Cell Phone Coverage (2.715) (2.735) (4.764) (3.568) (4.930) Mean Cell Coverage ( 4.531) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
14 TABLE 12. Spatial Binary and Count Models, Ethnicity Excluded Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Logit Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Spatial Lag (14.078) (13.993) (15.999) pre-2000 Conflict (2.006) (1.966) (3.629) (1.883) (22.487) Border Distance (0.286) (0.300) ( 0.431) (1.046) ( 0.979) Capital Distance (1.173) (1.176) (1.208) ( 0.328) (2.844) Population (3.494) (3.377) (4.749) (3.171) (10.058) Pct Mountainous (4.308) (4.313) (4.734) (3.611) (6.430) Pct Irrigation ( 1.461) ( 1.348) ( 2.213) ( 2.231) ( 1.273) GDP pc ( 2.833) ( 2.777) ( 3.069) ( 1.818) ( 4.911) Ethnicities excluded (0.891) (0.895) ( 0.194) (2.557) (3.091) Cell Phone Coverage (1.387) (1.410) (4.375) (2.915) (3.597) Mean Cell Coverage ( 5.794) Spatial Lag (7.810) (21.030) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
15 TABLE 13. Binary DV Models, Precise UCDP Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Effects Logit Mixed Effects Logit Fixed Effects OLS, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 1.446) pre-2000 Conflict (1.910) (1.822) (3.235) (3.339) (1.775) Border Distance ( 1.050) ( 1.018) ( 1.087) ( 2.150) ( 4.108) Capital Distance (1.348) (1.371) (1.406) (0.575) ( 0.009) Population (2.559) (2.463) (4.632) (4.713) (2.508) Pct Mountainous (8.852) (8.863) (8.150) (8.695) (4.575) Pct Irrigation ( 1.351) ( 1.112) ( 1.370) ( 1.826) ( 2.866) GDP pc ( 3.735) ( 3.670) ( 4.873) ( 3.604) (0.095) Cell Phone Coverage (3.445) (3.475) (3.320) (6.938) (5.355) Mean Cell Coverage Country Fixed Effects No No No No Y es AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N TABLE 14. Count DV Models, Precise UCDP Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( 9.955) ( ) pre-2000 Conflict (5.097) (31.386) Border Distance ( 0.528) ( 1.885) Capital Distance (0.825) (2.648) Population (4.486) (15.973) Pct Mountainous (6.549) (5.234) Pct Irrigation ( 1.518) ( 0.220) GDP pc ( 2.610) ( 4.147) Cell Phone Coverage (4.992) (2.380) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
16 TABLE 15. Spatial Binary and Count Models, Precise UCDP Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Logit Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Spatial Lag (13.206) (13.121) (14.631) (5.019) (22.375) pre-2000 Conflict (1.984) (2.075) (2.250) (2.698) (5.761) Border Distance ( 0.402) ( 0.390) ( 1.506) ( 0.340) ( 1.624) Capital Distance (0.240) (0.259) ( 0.404) ( 0.472) (2.539) Population (3.179) (3.044) (4.556) (3.082) (10.777) Pct Mountainous (4.936) (4.939) (5.236) (2.315) (4.476) Pct Irrigation ( 1.135) ( 0.968) ( 1.570) ( 1.262) (0.403) GDP pc ( 3.137) ( 3.050) ( 2.771) ( 1.976) ( 4.514) Cell Phone Coverage (2.146) (2.171) (4.832) (3.972) (2.922) Mean Cell Coverage ( 5.611) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
17 TABLE 16. Binary DV Models, ACLED Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Effects Logit Mixed Effects Logit Fixed Effects OLS, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0.330) pre-2000 Conflict (2.518) (2.478) (5.039) (5.037) (2.540) Border Distance ( 2.846) ( 2.829) ( 3.290) ( 3.298) ( 4.423) Capital Distance (1.003) (1.007) (1.131) (1.085) (3.411) Population (9.318) (9.271) (13.305) (13.275) (4.462) Pct Mountainous (5.031) (5.047) (5.230) (5.229) (3.923) Pct Irrigation ( 1.068) ( 1.047) ( 1.615) ( 1.633) ( 0.469) GDP pc ( 2.610) ( 2.577) ( 3.414) ( 3.269) ( 0.175) Cell Phone Coverage (7.238) (7.243) (7.449) (6.861) (6.351) Mean Cell Coverage ( 0.259) Country Fixed Effects No No No No Y es AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N TABLE 17. Count DV Models, ACLED Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( 7.104) ( 3.708) pre-2000 Conflict (11.293) (28.269) Border Distance ( 2.405) ( 2.205) Capital Distance (1.190) (0.652) Population (6.147) (15.101) Pct Mountainous (3.846) (1.084) Pct Irrigation ( 1.654) ( 0.229) GDP pc ( 1.429) ( 2.275) Cell Phone Coverage (6.103) (1.680) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
18 TABLE 18. Spatial Binary and Count Models, ACLED Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Logit Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 7.882) ( 3.348) Spatial Lag (17.868) (17.835) (19.070) (10.167) (14.043) pre-2000 Conflict (2.590) (2.509) (4.042) (8.841) (15.794) Border Distance ( 0.715) ( 0.695) ( 0.910) ( 1.790) ( 1.520) Capital Distance (0.863) (0.867) (0.723) (1.464) (0.404) Population (6.945) (6.900) (9.507) (5.963) (7.177) Pct Mountainous (3.926) (3.942) (4.158) (0.095) (0.564) Pct Irrigation ( 0.344) ( 0.317) ( 0.634) ( 1.465) (0.879) GDP pc ( 2.300) ( 2.266) ( 2.293) ( 1.136) ( 1.749) Cell Phone Coverage (5.360) (5.365) (5.458) (4.753) (1.619) Mean Cell Coverage ( 1.122) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
19 TABLE 19. Binary DV Models, SCAD Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Effects Logit Mixed Effects Logit Fixed Effects OLS, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 2.927) pre-2000 Conflict (1.530) (1.496) (2.960) (3.105) (1.943) Border Distance ( 2.616) ( 2.576) ( 2.641) ( 2.859) ( 2.653) Capital Distance (0.245) (0.298) (0.290) ( 0.037) (1.906) Population (9.636) (9.582) (9.751) (9.902) (6.073) Pct Mountainous ( 0.042) (0.034) ( 0.043) (0.064) ( 1.441) Pct Irrigation (0.119) (0.093) (0.137) ( 0.203) ( 0.445) GDP pc ( 0.642) ( 0.247) ( 0.613) ( 0.437) ( 0.287) Cell Phone Coverage (5.078) (5.030) (4.959) (5.374) (1.906) Mean Cell Coverage ( 1.881) Country Fixed Effects No No No No Y es AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N TABLE 20. Count DV Models, SCAD Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( 9.905) pre-2000 Conflict (4.261) (6.920) Border Distance ( 1.494) ( 1.921) Capital Distance ( 1.300) ( 0.174) Population (5.585) (15.695) Pct Mountainous (0.119) ( 0.792) Pct Irrigation ( 0.370) (1.354) GDP pc ( 0.701) ( 0.398) Cell Phone Coverage (6.464) (3.460) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
20 TABLE 21. Spatial Binary and Count Models, SCAD Logit, robust SE Re-Logit, robust SE Mixed Logit Poisson, robust SE Negative Binomial, robust SE (Intercept) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 9.920) Spatial Lag (2.371) (2.418) (2.711) (3.648) (2.093) pre-2000 Conflict (1.548) (1.529) (2.956) (4.445) (6.157) Border Distance ( 2.407) ( 2.355) ( 2.604) ( 1.434) ( 1.754) Capital Distance (0.405) (0.459) (0.138) ( 1.117) ( 0.249) Population (8.595) (8.517) (9.201) (5.944) (14.367) Pct Mountainous ( 0.146) ( 0.074) ( 0.043) (0.044) ( 0.886) Pct Irrigation ( 0.093) ( 0.117) ( 0.473) ( 0.634) (1.354) GDP pc ( 0.666) ( 0.351) ( 0.431) ( 0.711) ( 0.359) Cell Phone Coverage (4.936) (4.902) (5.279) (6.219) (3.284) Mean Cell Coverage ( 1.969) AIC BIC Deviance Log-likelihood N
21 4. MATCHING Alternative to the estimation of parametric models, we also explore the effect of cell phone coverage using matching methods. In particular, we rely on Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) (Iacus, King & Porro 2012). CEM bins observations into coarsened strata and matches based on the new groupings. This matching approach reduces imbalance in the sample based on all properties of the covariate distributions, not just differences of means or similar univariate statistics (Iacus, King & Porro 2012). We use the cem library in R to implement this matching algorithm and estimate the sample average treatment effect for the cells treated (SATT) with cell phone coverage after matching. We match on our baseline set of pre-treatment covariates. The original sample contains 5,628 untreated and 3,715 treated grid cells with an overall L 1 imbalance score of After matching we retain 4,882 control and 2,794 treated units, with a L 1 imbalance score of 0.728, a moderately sized imbalance reduction of over 8%. We then use a logit model with and without additional balance adjustment through covariates to obtain the estimated treatment effect. Without additional control variables, the estimated SATT is 0.45 with a 95% CI of [0.14, 0.76]. Including control variables in the estimation produces a SATT estimate of 0.30 and a 95% CI of [ 0.03, 0.65]. Both estimates are very similar in magnitude to our original estimates and confirm the main finding. 21
22 TABLE 22. Imbalance Statistics, Unmatched Sample Variable Diff-in-Means L 1 Diff-in-Means CEM L 1 CEM pre-2000 Conflict Pct Mountainous Border Distance Capital Distance Population in Pct Irrigation GDP pc in
23 5. INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES 23
24 TABLE 23. Bivariate Probit Model, Cell Phone Coverage Instrumented (1) (2) (3) (4) Robust SE Robust SE Clustered SE Clustered SE (Intercept) *** *** *** *** (-16.42) (-15.49) (-9.15) (-8.06) pre-2000 Conflict *** 0.007* * (4.49) (1.96) (2.45) (1.17) Border Distance (0.75) (0.83) (0.32) (0.45) Capital Distance 0.000*** 0.000** (4.38) (3.16) (1.56) (1.36) Population 0.000* 0.000** 0.000* 0.000** (2.46) (3.16) (2.24) (3.08) Pct Mountainous 0.502*** 0.318** 0.502** (5.04) (2.72) (2.96) (1.63) Pct Irrigation (-0.62) (0.67) (-0.56) (0.57) GDP per capita *** ** * (-4.59) (-3.15) (-2.04) (-1.62) Spatial Lag 2.732*** 2.732*** (12.89) (8.93) Cell Phone Coverage 0.590*** ** (3.58) (1.81) (3.05) (1.31) N t statistics in parentheses p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
25 6. PANEL DATA 25
26 TABLE 24. Panel Data, Country and Year Fixed Effects (1) (2) OLS, clustered SE OLS, clustered SE Cell Phone Coverage ** 0.121** ( ) (0.0390) pre-2000 Conflict ( ) ( ) Border Distance ( ) ( ) Capital Distance ( ) ( ) Population 2.36e e-08 (1.32e-08) (8.70e-08) Pct Mountainous (0.0350) (0.229) Pct Irrigation ( ) ( ) GDP pc 8.82e e-09 (3.49e-09) (1.15e-08) Country & Year Effects Yes Yes Observations Adjusted R F Clustered standard errors in parentheses p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
27 TABLE 25. Panel Data, Additional Count Models (1) (2) log(count+1), OLS, clustered SE Poisson Fixed Effects Cell Phone Coverage ** 1.136* ( ) (0.502) Cell & Year Effects Yes Yes Observations Adjusted R F Standard errors in parentheses p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
28 7. MODEL FIT While the focus on statistical and substantive significance of individual covariates is warranted given our theoretical interests, overall model fit and predictive capabilities of the model should not go without any consideration (Ward et al. 2010). Below we present a heat map of predicted conflict probabilities that suggest a fairly accurate identification of conflict hot spots. A better and intuitive graphical method to assess model fit for models with binary dependent variables is the separation plot (Greenhill et al. 2011). A separation plot orders observations according to their predicted probabilities derived from the model and plots the predicted probability curve. For each observation realized events in the data are then plotted with red vertical lines. A good model fit shows a clustering of actual events for higher predicted probabilities, whereas an inferior model fit shows a haphazard pattern. Below we show separation plots for the in-sample and out-of-sample (predicting 2009 conflict) fit for several models. Overall, the models do quite well in classifying grid cells correctly, especially when the spatial lag is included, strengthening the overall credibility or our models and findings. 28
29 FIGURE 1. Predicted Probabilities Heat Map, darker colors signify higher probability, In-Sample 29
30 (a) Logit (b) Logit with Spatial Lag FIGURE 2. Separationplots In-Sample (a) Logit (b) Logit with Spatial Lag FIGURE 3. Separationplots Out-of-Sample
31 8. COMPARISON OF UCDP AND WORLD BANK DATA FOR SIERRA LEONE 31
32 under over 80 (a) Household Member Injured or Maimed unde over (b) Household Member Made Refugee (a) Source: Sacks and Larizza 2012, p.41 under over 80 (c) House Burned Down under over 80 (d) Household Member Fled Figure 4: These maps show the mean percentage of respondents for each of Sierra Leone s 165 chiefdoms who were victims of the civil war. 41 (b) UCDP-GED F IGURE 4. Violence in Sierra Leone s Civil War 32
33 REFERENCES Greenhill, Brian, Ward, Michael D., & Sacks, Audrey The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models. American Journal of Political Science, 55(4), Ward, Michael D., Greenhill, Brian, & Bakke, Kristin The Perils of Policy by P-value: Predicting Civil Conflicts. Journal of Peace Research, 47,
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