Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota: A Report Based on County Sheriff s Sale Data

Transcription

1 Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota: A Report Based on County Sale Data Supplement 1: October 31, Minnesota Street Suite 1310-East Saint Paul, MN Telephone: Facsimile: gmhf@gmhf.com th Avenue North Minneapolis, MN Telephone: Facsimile: info@housinglink.org

2 About HousingLink HousingLink is an independent, politically neutral nonprofit organization that distributes affordable housing information to service agencies, housing providers, and policymakers in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. HousingLink offers resources to simplify the housing search process, including tools to understand affordable housing options and tools to market vacancies, and provides comprehensive information about the regional supply of affordable housing. About Greater Minnesota Housing Fund Founded in 1996 by The McKnight Foundation and Blandin Foundation, Greater Minnesota Housing Fund (GMHF) is a private, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that supports the creation of affordable housing in areas of economic vitality throughout the 80 counties outside of the Twin Cities metro area. GMHF provides important pre-development and capital funding, and brings people, money, and expertise together to support affordable housing development in greater Minnesota s communities. GMHF funds are targeted to households most in need of affordable housing, those families earning 80 percent or less of statewide median income. To date, the organization has provided $86 million to support the development of 6,821 affordable housing units in Greater Minnesota, leveraging more than $783 million in other financing. GMHF staff collaborates with a variety of state, regional, and local funding partners to address the unmet housing needs in Greater Minnesota. Copyright 2007 HousingLink/Greater Minnesota Housing Fund All Rights Reserved

3 Purpose This supplement has been produced as a follow-up to the July 2, 2007 report, Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota: A Report Based on Sale Data. Its purpose is to provide data as evidence that the foreclosure situation remains urgent. Data includes: Updated sheriff s sale counts for Greater Minnesota counties through the first three quarters of 2007 (January-September 2007) and an updated 2007 foreclosure projection estimate. Addition of sheriff s sale counts and projections for Twin Cities metro counties, providing a full picture of foreclosures in Minnesota. Foreclosure rates across all Minnesota counties to provide a measure of the comparative impact of foreclosures on counties of different population sizes. Methodology The methodology for this report supplement remains consistent to the July 2007 report with the following exceptions: Data collection expanded to all counties (including metro). Whereas the July 2007 report gathered sheriff s sale counts from Greater Minnesota counties, excluding the seven Twin Cities metro counties, the supplement gathers data from all counties in Minnesota. offices from all Greater Minnesota and Metro counties were asked to provide HousingLink with the total number of sheriff s sales for the first three quarters of 2007 (January 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007). HousingLink obtained a response rate of 86%. 75 counties provided HousingLink with updated sheriff s sales counts for January 1, 2007 through September 30, Of these 75 counties, all 7 Twin Cities metro counties provided data. In addition, 5 counties that did not provide sheriff s sales data in the July 2007 report were able to provide data for the October supplement (Crow Wing, Goodhue, Marshall, Nobles and Renville). Although Renville County is included in the response rate percentage, its sheriff s sale count is adjusted due to sheriff s sale information only being tracked as of April Data was unreported for 10 counties (Big Stone, Carlton, Kanabec, Kittson, Lake, Lyon, Murray, Pennington, Rock, and Todd). Chippewa and Stevens still do not maintain sheriff s sale data projections updated based on 2007 Q1 Q3 actual numbers. Whereas the July 2007 report based its 2007 foreclosure count projections on first quarter data, the supplement bases the projection on three quarters of data (January 1 September 30, 2007). Both the July 2007 report and October 2007 supplement assume that the total percentage of foreclosures that occurred by quarter in 2005 and 2006 in four counties (Anoka, Carver, Hennepin, and Scott) is representative of the quarterly proportion of sheriff s sales that will occur in Under this assumption, the first three quarter totals for 2007 will account for 71% of sheriff s sales at the year s end. Where 2007 Q1 Q3 data was unavailable, Q1 Q3 projections were calculated using 2007 Q1 data. The October 2007 supplement introduces a new calculation to project January September 2007 sheriff s sale numbers for counties where 2007 first quarter data Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota Supplement 1: October 31, 2007 Page 3

4 was included in the July 2007 report, but updated foreclosure counts through September 30, 2007 were not reported. Based on the proportion of sheriff s sales that occurred in Anoka, Carver, Hennepin and Scott in 2005 and 2006 in the given timeframes, the first quarter totals for 2007 would account for 30% of sheriff s sales as of September 30, Minnesota Foreclosure Figures The following pages include figures detailing sheriff s sale counts in Minnesota. Figure numbers correspond to the July 2007 report. The following figures are included with this supplement: Figure 3.1: Map of Minnesota Foreclosure Rates 2007 by County Figure 4.1: Minnesota by County (sorted by County) Figure 5.1: Minnesota by County (sorted by Projected) Figure 6.1: Minnesota Foreclosure Rates by County (sorted by County) Figure 7.1: Minnesota Foreclosure Rates by County (sorted by 2007 Foreclosure Rate - Projected) Page 4 Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota October 31, 2007

5 Figure 3.1: Minnesota Foreclosure Rates 2007 by County Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota Supplement 1: October 31, 2007 Page 5

6 Figure 4.1: Minnesota by County (sorted by County) Total Percent Number Q1-Q Percent County Aitkin % % Becker % % Beltrami % % Benton % % Big Stone** % % Blue Earth % % Brown % % Carlton** % % Cass % % Chippewa* -- Chisago % % Clay % % Clearwater % % Cook % % Cottonwood % % Crow Wing* Dodge* % Douglas % % Faribault % % Fillmore % % Freeborn % % Goodhue* Grant % % Houston % % Hubbard* % Isanti % % Itasca % % Jackson % % Kanabec** % % Kandiyohi % % Kittson** % Koochiching % % Lac Qui Parle % % Lake** % % Lake of the Woods % % Le Sueur % % Lincoln % % Lyon** % % Mahnomen % % Marshall* Martin % % McLeod % % Meeker % % Mille Lacs % % Morrison % % Mower % % Murray** % % Nicollet* Nobles* Norman % % Olmsted % % Otter Tail % % Page 6 Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota October 31, 2007

7 Total Percent Number Q1-Q Percent County Pennington** % % Pine % % Pipestone % % Polk % % Pope % % Red Lake % % Redwood % % Renville*^ Rice % % Rock** % % Roseau % % Sherburne % % Sibley % % St. Louis % % Stearns % % Steele % % Stevens* -- Swift % % Todd** % % Traverse % % Wabasha % % Wadena % % Waseca % % Watonwan % % Wilkin % % Winona* % Wright* Yellow Medicine % % Greater MN Totals 2,707 4,168 6, % 3 1, ,067 7,688 84% 5 Metro County Figures Anoka ,369 63% 329 1,188 1,673 98% Carver % % Dakota ,339 92% 421 1,090 1,535 76% Hennepin 1,681 3,042 4,723 81% 1,361 3,962 5,580 84% Ramsey 626 1,407 2, % 781 1,703 2,399 68% Scott % % Washington % % Metro Totals 3,759 7,039 10,798 87% 3,280 9,148 12,885 83% Minnesota Totals 6,466 11,207 17, % 3 4, ,215 20,573 84% 5 * County does not maintain part or all of the data requested or declined to provide the data. **As of October 26, 2007, the number of sheriff s sales for Q1-Q3 has not been reported to HousingLink. Q1-Q3 number is estimated based on county s previous Q1 reporting to HousingLink. (Q1 = 21% 2007 foreclosures. Q1- Q3 = 71% 2007 foreclosures. Therefore, 30% of Q1-Q3 foreclosures will take place in Q1.) ^ As of October 26, 2007, the number of sheriff s sales for Q1 was unavailable. Q1-Q3 number is estimated based on Q2-Q3 data. (Q1-Q3 = 71% 2007 foreclosures. Q2-Q3 = 50% 2007 foreclosures. Therefore, an additional 21% of foreclosures are assumed to have taken place in Q1.) is an estimate based on the number of sheriff s sales reported for Q1-Q Actual numbers will vary depending on conditions over the remainder of the year. This projection may not be accurate for all areas of Greater Minnesota, as it is based on four Twin Cities metro counties. 2 This total includes 2006 sheriff s sales from counties that did not report data from Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota Supplement 1: October 31, 2007 Page 7

8 3 This percentage is calculated based on the totals in that row and excludes counties that did not report data for It does not average the percent change column, as outliers may distort the result. 4 This amount is calculated by adding total sales in 2005 and 2006 in that row, not the total sales column. Counties that did not provide data for either 2005 or 2006 were omitted from the total sales column. If that column is summed, the result will underestimate the true total throughout the state. 5 This percentage change does not include data from counties that only reported sheriff s sales from Page 8 Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota October 31, 2007

9 Figure 5.1: Minnesota by County (sorted by Projected) Q1-Q Percent County Total Percent Number 1 Wright* Sherburne % % 3 Stearns % % 4 St. Louis % % 5 Olmsted % % 6 Isanti % % 7 Crow Wing* Chisago % % 9 Mille Lacs % % 10 Rice % % 11 Pine % % 12 Kanabec** % % 13 Goodhue* Le Sueur % % 15 Benton % % 16 Blue Earth % % 17 McLeod % % 18 Mower % % 19 Steele % % 20 Freeborn % % 21 Todd** % % 22 Kandiyohi % % 23 Otter Tail % % 24 Morrison % % 25 Douglas % % 26 Clay % % 27 Beltrami % % 28 Meeker % % 29 Lyon** % % 30 Dodge* % 31 Nicollet* Itasca % % 33 Martin % % 34 Renville*^ Cass % % 36 Carlton** % % 37 Sibley % % 38 Winona* % 39 Fillmore % % 40 Becker % % 41 Lake** % % 42 Faribault % % 43 Wabasha % % 44 Aitkin % % 45 Waseca % % 46 Hubbard* % 47 Pennington** % % 48 Polk % % 49 Redwood % % Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota Supplement 1: October 31, 2007 Page 9

10 Q1-Q Percent County Total Percent Number 50 Murray** % % 51 Roseau % % 52 Brown % % 53 Cottonwood % % 54 Koochiching % % 55 Yellow Medicine % % 56 Swift % % 57 Watonwan % % 58 Norman % % 59 Wadena % % 60 Grant % % 61 Pope % % 62 Wilkin % % 63 Jackson % % 64 Houston % % 65 Pipestone % % 66 Clearwater % % 67 Lac Qui Parle % % 68 Lake of the Woods % % 69 Lincoln % % 70 Nobles* Kittson** % 72 Big Stone** % % 73 Rock** % % 74 Marshall* Cook % % 76 Mahnomen % % 77 Traverse % % 78 Red Lake % % 79 Chippewa* Stevens* -- Greater MN Totals 2,707 4,168 6, % 3 13, ,067 7,688 84% 5 Metro County Figures 1 Hennepin 1,681 3,042 4,723 81% 1,361 3,962 5,580 84% 2 Ramsey 626 1,407 2, % 781 1,703 2,399 68% 3 Anoka ,369 63% 329 1,188 1,673 98% 4 Dakota ,339 92% 421 1,090 1,535 76% 5 Washington % % 6 Scott % % 7 Carver % % Metro Totals 3,759 7,039 10,798 87% 3,280 9,148 12,885 83% Minnesota Totals 6,466 11,207 17, % 3 16, ,215 20,573 84% 5 * County does not maintain part or all of the data requested or declined to provide the data. **As of October 26, 2007, the number of sheriff s sales for Q1-Q3 has not been reported to HousingLink. Q1-Q3 number is estimated based on county s previous Q1 reporting to HousingLink. (Q1 = 21% 2007 foreclosures. Q1- Q3 = 71% 2007 foreclosures. Therefore, 30% of Q1-Q3 foreclosures will take place in Q1.) Page 10 Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota October 31, 2007

11 ^ As of October 26, 2007, the number of sheriff s sales for Q1 was unavailable. Q1-Q3 number is estimated based on Q2-Q3 data. (Q1-Q3 = 71% 2007 foreclosures. Q2-Q3 = 50% 2007 foreclosures. Therefore, an additional 21% of foreclosures are assumed to have taken place in Q1.) is an estimate based on the number of sheriff s sales reported for Q1-Q Actual numbers will vary depending on conditions over the remainder of the year. This projection may not be accurate for all areas of Greater Minnesota, as it is based on four Twin Cities metro counties. 2 This total includes 2006 sheriff s sales from counties that did not report data from This percentage is calculated based on the totals in that row and excludes counties that did not report data for It does not average the percent change column, as outliers may distort the result. 4 This amount is calculated by adding total sales in 2005 and 2006 in that row, not the total sales column. Counties that did not provide data for either 2005 or 2006 were omitted from the total sales column. If that column is summed, the result will underestimate the true total throughout the state. 5 This percentage change does not include data from counties that only reported sheriff s sales from Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota Supplement 1: October 31, 2007 Page 11

12 Figure 6.1: Minnesota Foreclosure Rates by County (sorted by County) Foreclosure Rate = Number of Foreclosures as Percent of Total 2005 Households By 2005 Households County Owner/Renter Occupied (2000) 1 % Owner % Renter Aitkin Becker Beltrami Benton Big Stone** Blue Earth Brown Carlton** Cass Chippewa* Chisago Clay Clearwater Cook Cottonwood Crow Wing* Dodge* Douglas Faribault Fillmore Freeborn Goodhue* Grant Houston Hubbard* Isanti Itasca Jackson Kanabec** Kandiyohi Kittson** Koochiching Lac Qui Parle Lake** Lake of the Woods Le Sueur Lincoln Lyon** Mahnomen Marshall* Martin McLeod Meeker Mille Lacs Morrison Mower Murray** Page 12 Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota October 31, 2007

13 By 2005 Households County Owner/Renter Occupied (2000) 1 % Owner % Renter Nicollet* Nobles* Norman Olmsted Otter Tail Pennington** Pine Pipestone Polk Pope Red Lake Redwood Renville*^ Rice Rock** Roseau Sherburne Sibley St. Louis Stearns Steele Stevens* Swift Todd** Traverse Wabasha Wadena Waseca Watonwan Wilkin Winona* Wright* Yellow Medicine Greater MN Average Metro County Figures Anoka Carver Dakota Hennepin Ramsey Scott Washington Metro Average Minnesota Average Foreclosure rate metric: The foreclosure rate used in this report identifies the number of sheriff s sales as a percent of total 2005 households (as reported by the Minnesota State Demographic Center s Population Estimates). For Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota Supplement 1: October 31, 2007 Page 13

14 example, a rate of 1.41 indicates that there were 1.41 properties in foreclosure for every 100 households in the specified location. There are two significant obstacles when determining what metric is best suited to measure foreclosure rates in Minnesota. First, there is no standard for calculating a foreclosure rate, and second, no foreclosure rate metric is perfect. Rates of foreclosure have been measured in several ways, including number of households, number of owner-occupied units with an outstanding mortgage, and number of all outstanding mortgages. Some measures may under-estimate the true foreclosure rate by undercounting renter-occupied or investment properties. For reference, owner/renter occupancy figures are included for each county, to help differentiate counties with relatively high levels of owner or renter-occupied units. * Counties do not collect part or all of the data requested or declined to provide the data. **As of October 26, 2007, the number of sheriff s sales for Q1-Q3 has not been reported to HousingLink. Q1-Q3 number is estimated based on county s previous Q1 reporting to HousingLink. ^ As of October 26, 2007, the number of sheriff s sales for Q1 was unavailable. Q1-Q3 number is estimated based on Q2-Q3 data. (Q1-Q3 = 71% 2007 foreclosures. Q2-Q3 = 50% 2007 foreclosures. Therefore, an additional 21% of foreclosures are assumed to have taken place in Q1.) 1 This column represents the proportion of housing units occupied by owners and renters in each county. 2 Projected 2007 foreclosure rate is an estimate based on the number of sheriff s sales reported for Q1-Q Actual rates will vary depending on conditions over the remainder of the year. Source: HousingLink ( by County), MN State Demographic Center (2005 Household Estimates), US Census Bureau (2000 Households and 2000 Occupied Units by Tenure). Page 14 Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota October 31, 2007

15 Figure 7.1: Minnesota Foreclosure Rates by County (sorted by 2007 Foreclosure Rate - Projected) Foreclosure Rate = Number of Foreclosures as Percent of Total 2005 Households By 2005 Households County Owner/Renter Occupied (2000) 1 % Owner % Renter 1 Kanabec** Isanti Mille Lacs Sherburne Wright* Pine Chisago Le Sueur Crow Wing* Benton Todd** Rice McLeod Dodge* Sibley Lake** Mower Goodhue* Steele Renville*^ Meeker Freeborn Stearns Lyon** Murray** Morrison Martin Blue Earth Olmsted Faribault Norman Grant Kandiyohi Aitkin Nicollet* Douglas Pennington** Wilkin Waseca Fillmore Cass Lake of the Woods Wabasha Beltrami Yellow Medicine Redwood Kittson** Cottonwood Swift Carlton** St. Louis Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota Supplement 1: October 31, 2007 Page 15

16 By 2005 Households County Owner/Renter Occupied (2000) 1 % Owner % Renter 52 Roseau Hubbard* Watonwan Otter Tail Clay Lincoln Koochiching Itasca Becker Pope Wadena Lac Qui Parle Jackson Clearwater Winona* Pipestone Polk Brown Big Stone** Traverse Houston Mahnomen Nobles* Rock** Cook Marshall* Red Lake Chippewa* Stevens* Greater MN Average Metro County Figures 1 Anoka Scott Hennepin Ramsey Washington Dakota Carver Metro Average Minnesota Totals Foreclosure rate metric: The foreclosure rate used in this report identifies the number of sheriff s sales as a percent of total 2005 households (as reported by the Minnesota State Demographic Center s Population Estimates). For example, a rate of 1.41 indicates that there were 1.41 properties in foreclosure for every 100 households in the specified location. There are two significant obstacles when determining what metric is best suited to measure foreclosure rates in Minnesota. First, there is no standard for calculating a foreclosure rate, and second, no foreclosure rate metric is perfect. Rates of foreclosure have been measured in several ways, including number of households, number of owner-occupied units with an outstanding mortgage, and number of all outstanding mortgages. Some measures may under-estimate the true foreclosure rate by undercounting renter-occupied or investment properties. For reference, owner/renter occupancy figures are included for each county, to help differentiate counties with relatively high levels of owner or renter-occupied units. Page 16 Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota October 31, 2007

17 * Counties do not collect part or all of the data requested or declined to provide the data. **As of October 26, 2007, the number of sheriff s sales for Q1-Q3 has not been reported to HousingLink. Q1-Q3 number is estimated based on county s previous Q1 reporting to HousingLink. ^ As of October 26, 2007, the number of sheriff s sales for Q1 was unavailable. Q1-Q3 number is estimated based on Q2-Q3 data. (Q1-Q3 = 71% 2007 foreclosures. Q2-Q3 = 50% 2007 foreclosures. Therefore, an additional 21% of foreclosures are assumed to have taken place in Q1.) 1 This column represents the proportion of housing units occupied by owners and renters in each county. 2 Projected 2007 foreclosure rate is an estimate based on the number of sheriff s sales reported for Q1-Q Actual rates will vary depending on conditions over the remainder of the year. Source: HousingLink ( by County), MN State Demographic Center (2005 Household Estimates), US Census Bureau (2000 Households and 2000 Occupied Units by Tenure). Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota Supplement 1: October 31, 2007 Page 17