Brown Sugar: Deriving Satisfaction through Data Analysis

Transcription

1 Brown Sugar: Deriving Satisfaction through Data Analysis On Behalf of Maryland Government Finance Officers Association Winter Conference By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 19 th, 2018 Disclaimer: Any resemblance between the presentation s title and the speaker is purely coincidental.

2 Get off of My Cloud

3 IPSOS Global Confidence Index, December 2017 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GLOBAL SNAPSHOT National Index Belgium Germany December /+2.7 Canada 54.9/ +0.1 Great Britain 49.0/ / +0.1 Poland 50.2/+1.0 Hungary Sweden 63.1/ +0.6 Russia 43.0/ +1.7 Global Average: 50.1 (3-month change: +0.8) Largest gains Argentina Belgium China Largest drops Turkey India 2017 Ipsos Source: IPSOS Mexico 45.9 /-0.3 US 60.5/ +0.2 Argentina 51.5/ +4.6 Brazil 40.8/ +1.5 France 43.4/+0.8 Spain 44.7/-0.6 Italy 37.8/+0.4 South Africa 39.5/ -0.4 Country 40.8/ -0.3 Index/3-month change High Low Turkey 38.8/-6.0 Israel 53.5/ +0.6 Change +1.5 Change -1.5 India 64.3/ -2.4 Saudi Arabia 54.7/ +1.9 China 70.7/+2.4 Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI). Japan 45.1/+2.2 South Korea 46.6/ +0.4 Australia 52.9/+1.2 Highest (over 60) in: China, India, Sweden, U.S. v Lowest (below 40) in: Italy, Turkey, S. Africa Up in 7 countries: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, China, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia Down in 2 countries: India, Turkey 2

4 Nov-00 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 OECD Business Confidence Index Select Regions/Countries OECD - Total Euro area (19 countries) United States China Source OECD The business confidence index (BCI) is based on enterprises assessment of production, orders and stocks, as well as its current position and expectations for the immediate future. Opinions compared to a normal state are collected and the difference between positive and negative answers provides a qualitative index on economic conditions.

5 Global Monetary Policy Tightening/Easing As of December 2017 Source: Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Global Monetary Policy Tracker The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker covers fifty-four large countries mainly those that target inflation in some manner. Tightening policy is indicated in red, loosening in blue. The more a country has raised (lowered) rates, in percentage points, from the most recent trough (peak) in its policy rate, the darker the shade of red (blue). Generally, the policy rate target is the overnight interbank rate, with exceptions indicated.

6 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2018 Projected Advanced Economies Euro Area France Germany Italy Spain Japan United Kingdom Canada Australia United States Emerging Market & Developing Economies Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging & Developing Europe Russia Emerging & Developing Asia China India (3) Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan Latin America & the Caribbean Mexico Brazil 2018 Proj. Global Output Growth: +3.71% Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Database, October Growth (Estimate) World: 3.6% Euro Area: 2.1% United States: 2.2% Japan: 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 2.5% 0.7% 1.5% 2.1% 2.9% 2.3% 4.9% 3.4% 3.5% 1.6% 3.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 6.5% 6.5% 7.4% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Annual % Change

7 Start Me Up

8 2005 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 November November 2017 = where 1985 = Source: Conference Board

9 NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism, Dec-86 Dec-87 Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec Dec. 2017: Seasonally Adjusted 1986=100 Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

10 1950Q1 1952Q2 1954Q3 1956Q4 1959Q1 1961Q2 1963Q3 1965Q4 1968Q1 1970Q2 1972Q3 1974Q4 1977Q1 1979Q2 1981Q3 1983Q4 1986Q1 1988Q2 1990Q3 1992Q4 1995Q1 1997Q2 1999Q3 2001Q4 2004Q1 2006Q2 2008Q3 2010Q4 2013Q1 2015Q2 2017Q3 Paint It Black Corporate Profits U.S. Corporate Profits After Tax* $ Billions $2,000 $1.74 Trillion $1,600 $1,200 $800 $400 $0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *With IVA and CCAdj

11 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 Job Openings (Millions) U.S. Job Openings November 2001 through November Nov. 2017: 5.88M Openings Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

12 Thousands Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS December 2002 through December 2017 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec December 2017: +148K Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector December 2016 v. December 2017 Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Construction Manufacturing Financial Activities Other Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Mining and Logging Government Information All told 2,055K jobs gained Thousands, SA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 2000Q4 2001Q2 2001Q4 2002Q2 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 2006Q2 2006Q4 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2 2008Q4 2009Q2 2009Q4 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2 2017Q4 U.S. Labor Force Participation: Men Ages % 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88.7% 88% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

15 Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) November 2016 v. November 2017 Absolute Change Professional and Business Services 20,500 Education and Health Services 14,000 Government Mining, Logging, and Construction Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 7,500 6,300 9,200 Other Services 2,600 Leisure and Hospitality Financial Activities Manufacturing Information -1, ,200 MD Total: +60.7K; +2.2% US Total (SA): +2,062K; +1.4% -5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD added 71,952 jobs between November 2016 and November 2017.

16 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) November 2016 v. November 2017 Percent Change RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 UTAH ARIZONA NEW JERSEY NEVADA IOWA VIRGINIA TEXAS WISCONSIN HAWAII FLORIDA KENTUCKY MONTANA IDAHO NEW HAMPSHIRE INDIANA MARYLAND NEW MEXICO OHIO SOUTH CAROLINA NEW YORK LOUISIANA WASHINGTON OKLAHOMA ILLINOIS OREGON TENNESSEE NORTH DAKOTA GEORGIA MICHIGAN MAINE MASSACHUSETTS MINNESOTA KANSAS ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI SOUTH DAKOTA ARKANSAS MISSOURI DELAWARE CALIFORNIA PENNSYLVANIA CONNECTICUT COLORADO RHODE ISLAND WYOMING NORTH CAROLINA DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ALASKA VERMONT NEBRASKA WEST VIRGINIA -0.8 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.4%

17 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2016 v. November 2017 Absolute Change Education and Health Services 10,900 Professional and Business Services 5,400 Government 4,000 Mining, Logging, and Construction 3,000 Other Services 600 Manufacturing Information Financial Activities , Baltimore MSA Total: +17.6K; +1.2% MD Total (SA): +60.7K; +2.2% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Leisure and Hospitality -1,900-2,800 US Total (SA): +2,062K; +1.4% -5,000-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2016 v. November 2017 Absolute Change Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services 13,600 15,900 Leisure and Hospitality 9,500 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Services Mining, Logging, and Construction 4,000 4,000 5,100 Financial Activities Manufacturing DC MSA Total: +48.9K; +1.5% Government Information -1,400-2,300 US Total (SA): +2,062K; +1.4% -5, ,000 10,000 15,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Unemployment Rates, 25 Largest Metros (NSA) November 2017 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA 4 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 10 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD MSA 13 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions. U.S. Unemployment Rate: 4.1%

20 MD County Unemployment Rates, November 2017 Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Howard County Talbot County Carroll County Kent County Montgomery County Prince George's County Anne Arundel County Washington County Frederick County Cecil County Queen Anne's County Garrett County Calvert County Allegany County Harford County Dorchester County Charles County Baltimore City St. Mary's County Wicomico County Caroline County Somerset County Baltimore County Worcester County 9.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 Montgomery County Revenues Fiscal Years ($ millions) $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ Total GF Revenue Income Tax Revenue Income Tax as a Percentage of Revenue 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Montgomery County Department of Finance

22 Baltimore County Revenues Fiscal Years ($ millions) $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Total GF Revenue Income Tax as a Percentage of Revenue Income Tax Revenue 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Baltimore County Office of Budget and Finance

23 Baltimore City Revenues Fiscal Years ($ millions) $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Total GF Revenue Income Tax as a Percentage of Revenue Income Tax Revenue 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Baltimore City Department of Finance

24 Gimme Shelter

25 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Rate 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through January 2018* 10% 9% 8% 7% 15-yr 30-yr 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 4.04% 3.49% 1% Source: Freddie Mac *Week ending 1/18/2018

26 U.S. Households: Owner v. Renter Occupied, From the number of households headed by owners remained relatively flat. At the same time, the number of households renting their home increased significantly (+26.5%). The share of renter households also increased from 31.2% of households in 2006 to 36.6% in # of Household Heads (Millions) Homeowners Renters Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Pew Research Center

27 1980Q3 1981Q3 1982Q3 1983Q3 1984Q3 1985Q3 1986Q3 1987Q3 1988Q3 1989Q3 1990Q3 1991Q3 1992Q3 1993Q3 1994Q3 1995Q3 1996Q3 1997Q3 1998Q3 1999Q3 2000Q3 2001Q3 2002Q3 2003Q3 2004Q3 2005Q3 2006Q3 2007Q3 2008Q3 2009Q3 2010Q3 2011Q3 2012Q3 2013Q3 2014Q3 2015Q3 2016Q3 2017Q3 U.S. Homeownership (NSA) 1980Q3-2017Q3 70% 68% 2017Q3: 63.9% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% Source: U.S. Census Bureau *NSA: not seasonally adjusted

28 Nov-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 $ Billions (SAAR) U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction November 1993 through November 2017 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

29 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Thousands, SAAR U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts December 1999 through December ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, December 2017: 836K Source: U.S. Census Bureau

30 12-Month % Change S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros October 2017, 12-Month Percentage Change 12% 10% 10.2% 8% 6% 4% 3.1% 4.1% 4.4% 5.0% 5.9% 6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 7.1% 7.1% 7.2% 7.7% 2% 0% Source: Standard & Poor s

31 National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector November 2014 v. November 2017 Lodging Office Communication Commercial Amusement and recreation Educational Health care Transportation Power Highway and street Conservation and development Public safety Religious Manufacturing Sewage and waste disposal Water supply -5.6% -8.3% -8.4% -14.2% -14.9% -18.4% 7.7% 7.2% 7.1% 2.4% 33.9% 29.6% 29.1% 26.5% 45.2% Total Nonresidential Construction: +$81.5B; +12.8% 58.9% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 3-year % Change Source: U.S. Census Bureau

32 Billions of $US Commercial/Multifamily Offshore Investment Sales Volumes Reach New Heights in 2015/16 $60 $50 Foreign investment increases 85.1% in 2015 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics Cross-border investment remained elevated in 2016: Although down relative to a record 2015, offshore investment levels still exceeded the pre-2015 high in Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million

33 Foreign Investment in U.S. Commercial Real Estate Top Destination Markets, 2017H1 Foreign Investment by Destination Market (as a % of Total) New York Washington, D.C. Boston Los Angeles San Francisco Chicago Dallas-Ft. Worth Seattle-Bellevue Houston Austin 4.2% 3.4% 3.0% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% 7.6% 6.9% 9.7% 17.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million; includes portfolio, entity-level transactions

34 19 th Nervous Breakdown

35 1990Q3 1991Q2 1992Q1 1992Q4 1993Q3 1994Q2 1995Q1 1995Q4 1996Q3 1997Q2 1998Q1 1998Q4 1999Q3 2000Q2 2001Q1 2001Q4 2002Q3 2003Q2 2004Q1 2004Q4 2005Q3 2006Q2 2007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4 2014Q3 2015Q2 2016Q1 2016Q4 2017Q3 % Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Gross Domestic Product 1990Q3 through 2017Q3* 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 2017Q3: +3.2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *3 rd (Final) Estimate

36 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 One-month Percent Change Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through November % 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% November 2017: where 2010: % Source: Conference Board

37 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Savings Rate (%) U.S. Saving Rate, November 2005 November 2017 (Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income) November 2017: 2.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

38 Global Debt Reaches All Time Highs (IIF) According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), global debt has reached an all-time high in 2016; At $215 trillion, global debt including household, government, and corporate now represents 325% of global GDP; Last year the IMF warned of risks to the global economy: sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented private deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery Sources: 1. Institute of International Finance (IFF), Global Debt Monitor. 2. Business Insider. 3. The Telegraph. 4. Reuters.

39 Dec-80 Dec-81 Dec-82 Dec-83 Dec-84 Dec-85 Dec-86 Dec-87 Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec Shiller Price-Earnings Ratio, Dec. 2017: Source: Robert J. Shiller Data used in his book, "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press.

40 1/1/14 3/1/14 5/1/14 7/1/14 9/1/14 11/1/14 1/1/15 3/1/15 5/1/15 7/1/15 9/1/15 11/1/15 1/1/16 3/1/16 5/1/16 7/1/16 9/1/16 11/1/16 1/1/17 3/1/17 5/1/17 7/1/17 9/1/17 11/1/17 1/1/18 Shattered! --- Bitcoin Price, $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 1/15/2018: $13.8K $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Source: CoinMarketCap.com

41 Time is on My Side, at least in the Near-Term U.S. setting up for best year since 05...; Global economy also picking up momentum, in large measure due to policymaking; Job opportunities are abundant; Corporate profitability elevated; Consumer and business confidence has been surging...; And now tax cuts, including major reductions in corporate taxes... What could go wrong?; A lot can go wrong that s always true first there are the Black Swan threats: I m forever blowing bubbles, pretty bubbles in the air, they fly so high, nearly reach the sky, and like my dreams, they fade and die ; Equity markets? U.S. bond market? Commercial real estate? Bitcoin? Where are all the pretty bubbles? 2018 will be fine better than fine 2019 might be, too, but beyond that, potential deleveraging cycle prompted by a repricing of assets Bad!!!!

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