Project Presentation AMEU

Transcription

1 Project Presentation AMEU

2 Masterplanning (smart planning??) buzzword or not What comes to your mind, where does it come to your mind water, roads, metering, infrastructure Do you have a plan to succeed do we plan, do we (not) plan to fail? Is it better to have a good plan, a bad plan or no plan at all It s your choice We have to plan we do not want to fail 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 2

3 involvement - (shareholders) Includes being proactive and a catalyst to development realizing that electricity is the DETERMINING KEY to development To support REDS, town councils, communities and stakeholders to achieve their mission as set out by government e.g. vision 2030 To facilitate growth and development in all areas Get Town Councils involved for projects, coordination etc. with stakeholder, project (development funding), system upgrading How can this be achieved to finance ever increasing demand for existing infrastructure CAPEX, / Tariff, budgets. The deliverable should not just be a document, but added value. 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 3

4 Challenges the ESI (Electricity Supply Industry) is facing Increased growth, demand on existing and aging infrastructure performance pressure from stakeholders Operation, maintenance, extension, rehabilitation and upgrading Masterplan themes Benefits (why the Masterplan is needed) How is it approached, managed and produced Technical outlook and approach Economic analysis Financial analysis Qualitative report on social / economic issues 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 4

5 Masterplanning is an interactive engagement The project team (Owners/Champions) and Stakeholders (Town Councils) need to interact with the consultants to enables mutually agreeable projects and master plan guidelines Meetings and co-ordination will ensure elimination of misunderstandings Buy-in and support form stakeholders is essential The deliverable should not just be a document, but added value. 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 5

6 Requirements to prepare an electricity distribution master plan for area(s) that are implementable, sustainable and realistic, considering current constraints (and opportunities). Expectations The existing infrastructure (of the towns) and expansion thereof has to be analysed in view of facilitating existing growth, a REASONABLE QoS (Quality of Supply) and to sustain the continued electrification / servicing of PSA s in the boundary of the town A key aspect to consider is the Town Planners structure master plan assessing a revised approach to the town s development Above Master plan affects already electrified areas, as well as load / planning zones in the town, hence the electricity distribution thereto. Project parts MV / LV Infrastructure assessment (in terms of carrying capacity / expandability / suitability) and extension options Electrification Planning for PSA / Informal Settlement areas 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 6

7 Criteria For Successful implementation Masterplan Strategy To-Be Cause and Effect Relationships: Every measure should be part of a cause and effect chain to determine if the measures correctly represents and drives the strategy. Linked to Financials: As-Is Every measure selected should ultimately Drive Performance. Focus on factors that create long-term value. 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 7

8 . Masterplan Strategy To-Be Interim Review As-Is March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 8

9 What it is An agreed roadmap of where towards the infrastructure is to develop A concept and guide A detailed reference manual a living and dynamic reference document What it is not It is not a self-implementing resource It is not cast in stone It cannot provide for all circumstantial eventualities The actual solution The ultimate strategy The fulfilled objectives A Masterplan is very powerful when understood and used correctly 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 9

10 : to have a technical philosophy with regard the MV and LV network to have an assessment of the current status (As-Is) to have a recommended network design (To-Be) to have special projects and opportunities covered and identified to have a plan for remedial works to have cost estimates for all proposed works to have a electrification plan for the Progressive Development Areas to have Funding Request proposals A clear set of agreed objectives will pave the way to a successful Masterplan. 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 10

11 Focus on flood control, area development Bigger flood control is envisaged relocation of communities might be envisaged, however in the realistic context not very likely View on March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 11

12 Oshakati being a commercial developmental node Accelerated institutional development available information Spatial Development plan Feeder Definition for main town feeders LPU (Large Power User) Definition for planning purposes 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 12

13 S-curve approach (parameters) saturation of areas Load-growth in an area is saturable but not the total area growth and hence demand (not necessarily affordability) is not stoppable, and will increase unhindered 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 13

14 10/04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/2012 Demand 14, , , , , y = x R² = Demand and Energy Trends - OPE y = 14383x + 3E+06 R² = ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, Table 1: Growth/development Parameters Energy Demand kwhr kva Loadfactor Energy Demand Endavg (yr) % Begin (Avg) % 2,000, , ,000, , Demand Billed Units Linear (Demand Billed) OSHAKATI Linear ( Units) Growth (t_t) % Months Year Growth/year % Growth 4.4% 5.1% -0.5% 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 14

15 Town 2010 [kva] Energy % Demand % 2015 [kva] TOTAL % 4.6% [kva] Installed Supply [MVA] 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 15

16 Assume 5% growth [Demand]) the following scenario 2016: 14MVA 2021: 18 MVA 2026: 23 MVA Vision 2030 as per semi industrialized outlook - 30MVA BAR master plan 2060: 130 MVA TOWN Increase Oshakati % Windhoek % Ongwediva % Ondangwa % TOWN Increase Year MVA 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Oshakati % Windhoek % Ongwediva % Ondangwa % Year MVA 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Vision March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek

17 planned investment to have a backup-and secure supply to the town NamPower developments in the medium term Options for implementation, plan to implement in the short term the following Main Supply and Backup Supply to OPE with a second infeed station to the grid Each Supply point should have an alternate supply route from NamPower (if possible) 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 17

18 NamPower Supply options Redundancy / Backup where is the critical point? Capacity (short and medium term) Costs Limitations Outlook Quality of Supply (and Service) How can REDs afford this. We get to this a little later 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 18

19 Need a scientific approach with high reliability for planning Feeder scaling Loads Redundancy scenarios 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 19

20 00:30 01:30 02:30 03:30 04:30 05:30 06:30 07:30 08:30 09:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30 17:30 18:30 19:30 20:30 21:30 22:30 23:30 00:30 01:30 02:30 03:30 04:30 05:30 06:30 07:30 08:30 09:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30 17:30 18:30 19:30 20:30 21:30 22:30 23:30 Demand [kva] Demand [kva] Current main station feeders CURRENT MAIN STATION FEEDERS LPU CLIENT PROFILES Town Feeders - OPE 13 Sep 2011 LPU - OPE Industrial Oshakati West Town 1 Town Feeder TOTAL NamWater Meatco Game CocaCola Etango TOTAL March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 20

21 Load centres / Distribution centres / policies Main Load centres (Primary Stations) direct feed Distribution centres to feed into rings Stations 2500A Busbars / fault levels... >20kA.. 31,5kA (11kV) - decisions 1250 A Breakers / feeders / 2 bussections 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 21

22 MVA load scaling Voltage profile problems 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 22

23 Load-flow assessments Feeder loading / profile Voltage profile Protection coordination was done (can be provided as backup support to the MP) Infeed % of % of % of % of % of % of Year MVA % Town total load OPE total load Oneshila total load Industrial total load Oshakati West total load Town 2 total load % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 23

24 UPGRADE PATH COSTING / LOAD TRANSFER Overhead / underground (cables, monopole, concrete, lattice?) Switchgear SF6? / oil / vacuum LV ABC (Aerial Bundle Conductor) / Underground Street lighting and HML (High Mast Lighting) Metering Figure 1 : Technology options feeder comparison Cost/capacity comparison Cost [N$/m] Rating [A] ratio Overhead line Gopher: 11/22/33kV - $ Rabbit: 11/22/33kV - $ % Hare: 11/22/33kV - $ % underground cable 70mm2 Cu XLPE TypeA N$ mm2 Cu XLPE TypeA N$ mm2 Cu XLPE TypeA N$ mm2 Cu XLPE TypeA N$ mm2 Cu XLPE TypeA N$ Overhead is only % of the cost of underground 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 24

25 NORTH SOUTH AXIS UPGRADE Priority / Technology. OPE Cost Estimate for new Stations - N/S connection for Load Centres 150mm2 Cu XLPE Cable Distance (m) Cost/Unit SubTotal Total 3600 N$ N$ 2,520, N$ 12,096, Stations x2 N$ 4,000, N$ 8,000, N$ 8,000, Grand Total N$ 20,096, March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 25

26 Project Components MV & LV projects Special PDA Electrification CAPEX projects..\technical Info\Project Costing\OPE_TOWN-Infrastructure_CAPEX OPEX 21Apr2012 R3.xlsx All projects are identified for implementation, with a total CAPEX of N$ xxx Million. Implementation has to be assessed in line with revised (dynamic) development requirements. Security, QoS and related issues are addressed. OPE (Oshakati Premier Electric) CAPEX Infrastructure requirement Special OPE Projects on DSM/Metering/Control and NAMPOWER Contribution MV Masterplan Upgrade Maintenance Medium Voltage (11/22/33kV) Maintenance LV (Low Voltage 230/400V) PDA (Progressive Development Areas) projects Total per FY Year 1 Financial year 2010/11 N$ 1,000, N$ 10,407, N$ 441, N$ 420, N$ 2,152, N$ 14,422, Year 2 Financial year 2011/12 N$ - N$ 4,690, N$ 240, N$ 370, N$ 1,288, N$ 6,589, Year 3 Financial year 2012/13 N$ 3,000, N$ 3,735, N$ 500, N$ 99, N$ 734, N$ 8,070, Year 4 Financial year 2013/14 N$ 47,000, N$ 1,687, N$ 4,960, N$ 87, N$ 2,402, N$ 56,137, Year 5 Financial NamPower year Contribution 2014/15 N$ 28,000, N$ 3,682, N$ 269, N$ - N$ 1,991, N$ 33,943, Year 6 for Intake 2 not included Financial - but year highlighted 2015/16 N$ - N$ 5,360, N$ - N$ 4, N$ - N$ 5,364, Year 7 Financial year 2016/17 N$ - N$ 3,463, N$ - N$ - N$ - N$ 3,463, Year 8 Financial year 2017/18 N$ - N$ 9,122, N$ - N$ - N$ - N$ 9,122, Year 9 Financial year 2018/19 N$ - N$ 6,516, N$ - N$ - N$ - N$ 6,516, Year 10 Financial year 2020/21 N$ 25,000, N$ 10,633, N$ - N$ - N$ - N$ 35,633, N$ 104,000, N$ 59,298, N$ 6,412, N$ 981, N$ 8,569, N$ 179,262, March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 26

27 Priority [1=high, 2-medium, 3=low] SPECIAL CAPEX PROJECTS 12,000, ,000, OPEX Infrastructure requirement: Oshakati [NPV] - Special Projects CAPEX Infrastructure requirement: OPE (Oshakati Premier Electric) Table 1: OPE CAPEX projects Special Projects OPE (Oshakati Premier Electric) Network Re-enforcement task Special projects - OPEX Infrastructure requirement Attribute Rate Cost Year PIP 8,000, ,000, ,000, DSM (Demand Side Management) Intervention Ripple control to manage Loads / Load shifting / HVAC control options 2 Special OPEX $ 3,000, $ 3,000, ,000, AD-HOC ACCELERATION 2 AMR (Automatic Metering & Billing System) - route on smart (knowledge based) grid - convert all meters to ToU (Time of Use Tariffs) - in phases from LPU / 3 Phase - with options to later place Single Phase customers and PPM on ToU 3 SCADA project - Grid Automation (preliminary) 1 Special OPEX 1 Special OPEX $ 1,000, $ 1,000, $ 1,000, $ 1,000, Ekuku 4 MVA application Funded from NETWORK CONTRIBUTION... BY WHOM / FOR WHOM WHAT IF NOT.. 4 Allow for NamPower Contribution for Second 20 MVA transformer at the Intake Station PART 1 - Sinking Fund 5 Allow for NamPower Contribution for Second 66kV Supply to intake station from Makalani Part 1 Sinking Fund 6 Allow for NamPower Contribution for Second 66kV Supply to intake station from Makalani Part 1& 2 - Sinking Fund 1 Special OPEX 3 Special OPEX 3 Special OPEX $ 5,000, $ 5,000, $ 5,000, $ 5,000, $ 10,000, $ 10,000, $ 25,000, NamPower contribution / sinking funds for Million has to be accommodated, and to be 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek worked into the tariffs, alternatively the financing thereof.. 27

28 Priority [1=high, 2-medium, 3=low] Projects Budgets Priorities KEY TABLE infrastructure action plan. Technologies Total budget tba Estimate xxx Million for 10 years Projects listed as referenced OPE (Oshakati Premier Electric) Drawing Ref. No Network Re-enforcement task 1 Build a Second Intake Station - NamPower OPE Intake No. 2 1A 1B 1C Equip Station NamPower OPE No 2. with metal-clad 2500A 11kV circuit breakers / and ancillary equipment Build a Second Intake Station - NamPower OPE Intake No. 1 adjacent to existing OPE current Intake, - OPE Main Intake 1 Convert Existing OPE Intake to OPE 1 Distribution Station 2 Build CBD/Etango Distribution Station 2A 2B 2C Equip CBD Etango Station with metal-clad 2500A 11kV circuit breakers / and ancillary equipment Install MV feeder line from NamPower OPE Intake Station 1 to Etango DS - (2 x150mm Cu XLPE) Install MV feeder from Intake Station 1 to Etango DS - (2 x150mm Cu XLPE) 3 Install MV feeder from Intake Station 2 to Etango DS - (2 x150mm Cu XLPE) 3A Install MV feeder from Intake Station 2 to Etango DS - (2 x150mm Cu XLPE) 4 Upgrade Oneshila Switching Node to a full DS: Oneshila DS 5 Install MV feeder from Intake Station 1 to Oneshila DS - (150mm Cu XLPE) 6 Install MV feeder from Nampost Overhead line to Bank of Namibia Trf - (120mm Cu XLPE) 7 Install a 4-way RMU at the Bank of Namibia CAPEX Infrastructure requirement Source / From Destination / To / at Node Cost 3 Nampower/OPE Etango/OPE01 $ 400, Nampower/OPE Etango/OPE01 $ 3,600, Nampower/OPE Etango/OPE01 $ 400, Nampower/OPE Etango/OPE01 $ 400, OPE01/OPE02 Etango $ 400, OPE01/OPE02 Etango $ 4,050, Intake 01 Etango/OPE02 $ 3,191, Intake 01 Etango/OPE02 $ 3,191, Intake 02 Etango/OPE01 $ 2,496, Intake 02 Etango/OPE01 $ 2,496, Intake 01 Oneshila DS $ 3,500, Intake 01 Oneshila DS $ 1,266, Intake 01 Oshakati East $ 1,045, Intake 01 Oshakati East $ 90, Year PIP 7A Connect Town Council RMU from new RMU - (120mm Cu XLPE) 2 Intake 01 Oshakati East $ 264, March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 28

29 TOTAL N$ 221,495, excl. Nampower TOTAL N$ 179,262,000.- Incl NamPower Excl. N$ 79,262, March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 29

30 QoS DSM RE s PFC PDA Electrification 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 30

31 QoS. Where are we. We have sophisticated clients Commodity labeling in terms of QoSS ( ) Quality awareness linked to performance and cost/value 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 31

32 Limited option Profile excellent for RE PV input (Northern Namibia) Cost kwhr at ND 2.20 maybe at 1ND in future (Large PV stock in Europe / costing weights on technology and inverter equipment) Incentives Tariff and Pricing signal Implement the AMR (Automatic Metering & Billing System) and ToU (Time of Use Tariffs) allowing customers to benefit from scheduling the load (off from peak) and the tariff to be structures such that OPE does NOT have less revenue but MORE capacity (aim deferred investment is seen as saving). PROVIDE A TARIFF (AND SOLUTION) FOR THE VOLUME.. Ordinary People do not have a choice (and benefit) on ToU PV Large scale OPE plan, NamPower plan... PV plans coming (3 x 10 MW PV input) / Concentrated PV (REEE) profile allows grid in-feed for standard and peak tariff times in-feed (Winter and Summer / except when overcast which is not the case in Winter)? Industry players accommodating private small, medium and large partners Controllable loads Smart cooling systems can be implemented HVAC Geyser penetration assessment limited (estimate OPE controllable loads / others) All new developments (medium / high) income will have HWS Solar be recommended Benefit in load shifting not necessarily Maximum Demand 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 32

33 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 30/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 31/08/ :00 Axis Title Customer / client base categories based on number of customers per category and reference to residential load profiles Source: OPE (Oshakati Premier Electric) Nena asset register / energy sales/pce (PowerConsult Engineers) METER AUDIT Data and NENA 2012 data (OPE/Emcon) Oshakati Customer Profile and Base [est 2011 / based on NENA 2011 and Meteraudit 2008] OPE Daily Profile Sum of PPM 1 phase Sum of PPM 3 phase Sum of BUS-1 Sum of BUS-3 Sum of LPU KW KVAR KVA 4, March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 33

34 Considered DSM Demand reduction Load shifting (HVAC/ Geyser_ Tariff signals CAPEX >3-4 Mio Payback 4-6 yrs Benefit: YES Explore add. Options NamPower Better negotiated tariffs on capacity shedding with NamPower..\Technical Info\DSM\DSM OPE assessment OPE EMP R1.xlsx DSM considerations - OPE EMP (OPE Electrical MasterPlan) Geyser penetration 40% Households/total TOTAL HHlds Households with geysers 4292 HHlds Controlloabel loads (HVAC) 480 Buss/HHls 40% HHlds with geysers 20% HHLds with HVAC 2kW/Element kw 2 kw/geyser Controlable loads KW 40% 2kW compressor kw 2 kw./ HVAC HVAC kw 50% 3 hours Energy Shift 2 hrs a.m./ 1 hr p.m kwhr/day Winter (3 months) Demand [kva]: 0 N$ N$ - Energy: Peak N$ 1.66 (allow only DEMAND - not CAPACITY ACCESS) Standard N$ 0.69 (evening only) Offpeak N$ 0.34 (excluded) Saving N$ 0.97 Peak -> Standard N$ 4, /day days/month 30 N$ 128, /month Total N$ 128, /month N$ 384, / 3 month Summer (9 months) Demand [kva]: 0 N$ N$ - Energy: Peak N$ 0.71 (allow only DEMAND - not CAPACITY ACCESS) Standard N$ 0.57 (evening only) Offpeak N$ 0.31 (excluded) Saving N$ 0.14 Peak -> Standard N$ /day days/month 30 N$ 18, /month Total N$ 18, /month N$ 166, /9 month Annual estimated saving: Winter N$ 384, (Demand and Sales) Summer N$ 166, N$ 551, Saving in terms of payment to NamPower - 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 34

35 Already implemented (reduce MD by 1 MVA) 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 35

36 Past achievements for OPE Over the last 12 years a major focus on PDA electrification and HML (High Mast Lighting) has been exhibited by OPE Additional major shopping areas and institutional developments have materialized resulting in system growth 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 36

37 HES of electrified and un-electrified area... Know and Discover the benefit Ompumbo un-electrified Evululuko - Electrified 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 37

38 Quantifiable High Low Financial & Quantification: Increased literacy, Possibility of distance education, More homes with electricity, Increased empowerment of females, n Financial & Quantification: RoI, IRR, NPV of the project, Unlocking the value of existing isolated Infrastructure, Low Low Low Financial & Low Quantification: Increased business in another locations as a result of local activities, Reduction of solar theft, Quicker deployment of telecommunications Infrastructure, Increased standard of living, Reduced deforestation, Improved health care facilities, E-government opportunities, Poverty reduction, Financial Financial & Low Quantification: Increased economic activity due to electricity, Development of Green Schemes, Increased Tourism activities, Job creation, High 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 38

39 Projects categorization Infrastructure projects those that have to be done Development projects those that should be done on merit. (PDA / SL) Financing ADB, DBN... interested / Electrical business is very viable BUT... Finance options... Smart partnerships... (can you find them?) Capital Appropriation Capital Portfolio Need more intense discussions on how to allocate budgets/ source of funding Baseline Electrification 10% 15% 30% 5% 40% Backbone Infrastrucure Rural/Informal Settlement Electrification Efficiency and Effectiveness Support 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 39

40 Reference / map [Dominant] Name per month purchases [Present] yr 0-5 yr 5-10 yr yr 0-5 yr 5-10 yr counted no. of erven derived / on density NPV IRR Grant Funding: 40% Remainder: 60% through commercial bank loan Conclusion: All projects feasible Annual Revenue: N$2.4 million CAPEX years 0-5: N$8.5 million CAPEX years 5-10: N$0 million CAPEX years 10-15: N$0 million Total CAPEX: N$8.5 million E1 Residential Ompumbu N$ N$ N$ - N$ Project 1 N$ % E2 Residential Ompumbu N$ N$ N$ - N$ Project 2 N$ % R Residential Oshimbangu N$ N$ N$ - N$ Project 3 N$ % T3 Residential Evululuko N$ N$ N$ - N$ Project 4 N$ % U5 Residential Kandjengedi South N$ N$ N$ - N$ Project 5 N$ % X Residential Onawa N$ N$ N$ - N$ Project 6 N$ % N$ N$ N$ - N$ - 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 40

41 Projects will have to be prioritized on merit. This can include socio-economic aspects, political aspects, or other non-financial and possibly non-quantifiable considerations. These will typically be more favorably be assessed by Development Agencies than commercial loan institutions. Funding for electricity projects can come from various sources. Options include: Self-financed Donor agencies Government Development Funds Commercial loans Capital contribution TARIFFS or we are all challenged here 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 41

42 End 20 March 2013 AMEU / Windhoek 42