ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Hungary

Transcription

1 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Hungary 1 219

2 The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the first quarter 219 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 75 employers in Hungary. All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 219 as compared to the current quarter? Hungary Employment Outlook Contents Hungary Employment Outlook 2 Regional Comparisons 3 Sector Comparisons 8 Organisation-Size Comparisons 14 About the Survey 15 About ManpowerGroup 16

3 Hungary Employment Outlook Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % Jan-Mar Oct-Dec July-Sep Apr-June Jan-Mar Hungary +12 (+15)% Hungary joined the survey in Q3 29 No bar indicates of zero Hungarian employers report favorable hiring plans for the first quarter of 219. While 15% of employers forecast an increase in payrolls, 3% anticipate a decrease and 81% expect no change, resulting in a of +12%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +15%. Hiring prospects are 2 percentage points weaker when compared with the previous quarter, but remain relatively stable in comparison with this time one year ago. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. 2 ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

4 Regional Comparisons Employers in all eight regions expect to grow payrolls during the next three months. The strongest hiring intentions are reported in two regions with Net Employment Outlooks of +19% Central Hungary and Southern Transdanubia. Steady job gains are also anticipated in Central Transdanubia where the Outlook is +18%, and in Budapest with an Outlook of +17%. Southern Great Plain employers forecast respectable payroll gains with an Outlook of +13%, while Outlooks of +12% are reported in both Northern Great Plain and Western Transdanubia. Meanwhile, Northern Hungary employers report the most cautious hiring plans with an Outlook of +%. When compared with the previous quarter, hiring intentions weaken in four of the eight regions, including notable declines of 5 and 4 percentage points in Western Transdanubia and Northern Hungary, respectively. Elsewhere, Outlooks are unchanged in four regions Budapest, Northern Great Plain, Southern Great Plain and Southern Transdanubia. Year-over-year, hiring prospects also decline in four of the eight regions. Western Transdanubia employers report a moderate decrease of 7 percentage points, and Outlooks are 4 percentage points weaker in both Budapest and Northern Hungary. However, Southern Transdanubia employers report a considerable improvement of 14 percentage points, and the Outlook for Northern Great Plain improves by 3 percentage points. Budapest Central Hungary Central Transdanubia Northern Great Plain Northern Hungary Southern Great Plain Southern Transdanubia Western Transdanubia ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 3

5 +17 (+15)% Budapest Employers expect the hopeful hiring climate to continue in the first quarter of 219, reporting a of +17% for the second consecutive quarter. However, hiring prospects decline by 4 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago No bar indicates of zero. +19 (+14)% Central Hungary Reporting a of +19%, employers anticipate positive workforce gains in the upcoming quarter. The Outlook is 2 percentage points weaker when compared with the previous quarter, but remains relatively stable in comparison with 1Q No bar indicates of zero. 4 ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

6 (+12)% Central Transdanubia Job seekers can expect a favorable hiring pace in the January to March time frame, according to employers who report a of +18%. Hiring intentions decline by 3 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, but are unchanged in comparison with the first quarter of No bar indicates of zero. +12 (+4)% Northern Great Plain Respectable payroll gains are expected to continue in the coming quarter, with employers reporting a of +12%. Hiring prospects are unchanged quarter-overquarter and improve by 3 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago No bar indicates of zero. ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 5

7 + (+)% Northern Hungary The weakest labor market in more than three years is forecast for the next three months. Employers report a of +%, declining by 4 percentage points in comparison with both the prior quarter and the first quarter of No bar indicates of zero. +13 (+11)% Southern Great Plain Employers expect the steady hiring pace to continue in the January to March time frame, reporting a of +13% for the second consecutive quarter. When compared with this time one year ago the Outlook declines by 3 percentage points No bar indicates of zero. 6 ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

8 +19 (+17)% Southern Transdanubia Job seekers can expect the upbeat hiring pace to continue in the first quarter of 219, according to employers who report a of +19% for the second consecutive quarter. In comparison with the first quarter of 218 hiring intentions improve by a considerable margin of 14 percentage points No bar indicates of zero. +12 (+8)% Western Transdanubia The weakest hiring activity in more than two years is anticipated in 1Q 219, with employers reporting a of +12%. Hiring plans decline by 5 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and are 7 percentage points weaker in comparison with the first quarter of No bar indicates of zero. ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 7

9 Sector Comparisons Payrolls are forecast to increase in all nine industry sectors during the coming quarter. Manufacturing sector employers anticipate the strongest labor market, reporting a of +25%. Elsewhere, steady job gains are expected in two sectors with Outlooks of +18% the Construction sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector while the Outlook for the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector stands at +17%. Respectable workforce growth is forecast for the Transport, Storage & Communications sector with an Outlook of +14%, and in the Electricity, Gas & Water sector where the Outlook is +13%. Meanwhile, Public & Social sector employers anticipate modest hiring activity, reporting an Outlook of +6%. In comparison with the final quarter of 218 hiring prospects weaken in six of the nine industry sectors, most notably by 9 percentage points in the Transport, Storage & Communications sector. Moderate decreases of 7 percentage points are reported in both the Construction sector and the Manufacturing sector, while Public & Social sector employers report a decline of 3 percentage points. However, Outlooks strengthen by 9 percentage points in the Restaurants & Hotels sector and by 4 percentage points in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector. Employers in four of the nine industry sectors report improved hiring prospects when compared with this time one year ago. An increase of 6 percentage points is reported in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, and Outlooks are 5 and 3 percentage points stronger in the Public & Social sector and the Electricity, Gas & Water sector, respectively. Meanwhile, hiring plans weaken in four sectors, most notably by percentage points in the Transport, Storage & Communications sector. Elsewhere, Outlooks in both the Construction sector and the Manufacturing sector decrease by 3 percentage points. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Finance & Business Services Manufacturing Public & Social Restaurants & Hotels Transport, Storage & Communication Wholesale & Retail Trade ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

10 + (+2)% Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Job seekers can expect a fair hiring climate in the January to March time frame, according to employers who report a of +%. Hiring plans decline by 2 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, but remain relatively stable in comparison with 1Q No bar indicates of zero. +12 (+18)% Construction The weakest labor market in two years is forecast for the coming quarter, with employers reporting a of +18%. Hiring prospects decline by 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and are 3 percentage points weaker when compared with this time one year ago No bar indicates of zero. ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 9

11 +13 (+8)% Electricity, Gas & Water Steady workforce gains are anticipated in the first quarter of 219, with employers reporting a of +13%. The Outlook remains relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter and is 3 percentage points stronger in comparison with the first quarter of No bar indicates of zero. +17 (+15)% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Employers anticipate an upbeat hiring pace in the next three months, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +17%. Hiring intentions are 4 percentage points stronger in comparison with the final quarter of 218 and are unchanged year-over-year No bar indicates of zero. ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

12 +25 (22)% Manufacturing Solid payroll gains are expected in the January to March time frame, with employers reporting a of +25%. However, hiring intentions decline by 7 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and are 3 percentage points weaker in comparison with this time one year ago No bar indicates of zero. +6 (+5)% Public & Social With a of +6%, employers forecast a conservative hiring pace in the coming quarter. The Outlook is 3 percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter, but improves by 5 percentage points in comparison with the first quarter of No bar indicates of zero. ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 11

13 +11 (+7)% Restaurants & Hotels Respectable workforce growth is expected in the forthcoming quarter, with employers reporting a of +11%. Hiring plans are 9 percentage points stronger in comparison with the prior quarter and remain relatively stable when compared with this time one year ago No bar indicates of zero. +14 (+9)% Transport, Storage & Communication Job seekers can expect the weakest labor market in three years during the coming quarter, according to employers who report a of +14%. Hiring intentions are considerably weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, declining by 9 and percentage points, respectively No bar indicates of zero. 12 ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

14 +18 (+15)% Wholesale & Retail Trade Steady payroll gains are anticipated in the January to March period, with employers reporting a of +18%. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter and are 6 percentage points stronger in comparison with the first quarter of No bar indicates of zero. ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 13

15 Organization Size Comparisons Participating employers are categorized into one of four organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than employees; Small businesses have -49 employees; Medium businesses have employees; and Large businesses have 25 or more employees. In comparison with the final quarter of 218, hiring plans weaken by 7 percentage points for Medium employers, and decline by 3 percentage points in the Large employer category. Meanwhile, Outlooks for Micro- and Small-size employers remain relatively stable. Payrolls are expected to grow in all four organization size categories during the coming quarter. Large employers report the strongest hiring prospects with a solid of +29%. Elsewhere, the Outlook for Medium-size firms stands at +14%, and Outlooks of +12% and +11% are reported by Small- and Micro-size employers, respectively. When compared with this time one year ago, Medium employers also report a 7 percentage point decline, but hiring plans are 4 percentage points stronger for Micro employers. Small employers report relatively stable hiring prospects, while Large employers report no change. Company Size Increase Decrease No change Don t know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % Micro-Size fewer than Small-Size Medium-Size Large-Size 25 or more Micro-Size fewer than Small-Size -49 Medium-Size Large-Size 25 or more Seasonally Adjusted Data 14 ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés

16 About the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 5 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. The question For the 1Q 219 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 219 as compared to the current quarter? Various factors underpin the success of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey: Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Projective: The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup s customer base. Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over 6, public and private employers across 44 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Focused: For more than five decades the survey has derived all of its information from a single question: Methodology The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. s for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustment Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Croatia and Portugal. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 28, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data. ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés 15

17 About ManpowerGroup ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN), the leading global workforce solutions company, helps organizations transform in a fast-changing world of work by sourcing, assessing, developing and managing the talent that enables them to win. We develop innovative solutions for hundreds of thousands of organizations every year, providing them with skilled talent while finding meaningful, sustainable employment for millions of people across a wide range of industries and skills. Our expert family of brands Manpower, Experis, Right Management and ManpowerGroup Solutions creates substantially more value for candidates and clients across 8 countries and territories and has done so for 7 years. In 218, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World s Most Ethical Companies for the ninth year and one of Fortune s Most Admired Companies for the sixteenth year, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup is powering the future of work: ManpowerGroup Hungary 76. Váci road Budapest 1133 Tel: Fax: ManpowerGroup All rights reserved 16 ManpowerGroup Munkaerő-piaci Előrejelzés