The Metropolitan Economy

Transcription

1 The Metropolitan Economy Quarterly Employment surge on Montréal Island More full-time positions Growth in producer services Manufacturing stabilizing Firms spend on equipment Wages stable Profile (p. 3): Employment and unemployment in major metropolitan areas Montréal s comeback stalled since 2002 The Metropolitan Economy gives a concise description of short-term economic trends and the highlights of the past quarter. The summary tables at the end contain current economic statistics for the Montréal metropolitan area and its five sectors, i.e. Montréal, Laval, Longueuil, and the North and South Shores. The Metropolitan Economy is available on the website of the Communauté métropolitaine de Montréal ( CMM) at The CMM is made up of 82 municipalities and has a population of 3.5 million residents, or close to half the population of Quebec. It is responsible for planning, coordinating and financing various metropolitan activities. Solid job growth Employment continues to rise, up by 0.9% in the Montréal metropolitan area in the fourth quarter of All growth was in full-time positions. Producer services, which are concentrated downtown, are hiring, and this has boosted indicators for the Montréal Island as a whole. Consumer services, on the other hand, are flagging. Employment rate %,seasonally adjusted Toronto CMA Montréal CMA 4th Quarter w w w. c m m. q c. c a , r u e S h e r b r o o k e O u e s t, b u r e a u , M o n t r é a l ( Q u é b e c ), H 3 A 3 L i n f c m m. q c. c a Decline in unemployment The growing number of jobs means fewer people are looking for work. The unemployment rate has been declining steadily since the first quarter of 2006, and reached 7.6% in the fourth quarter. However, rising employment figures are not encouraging people to join the labour market. The participation rate has remained more or less constant since early 2004, reaching 67.6% in the fourth quarter Oddly enough, the number of unemployment insurance claimants climbed by 2.7%, especially on the North Shore. Source: Statistics Canada Employment in the Montréal CMA Index, seasonally adjusted, 1997= Part-time 122 Full-time Source: Statistics Canada Volume 4, Number 4

2 The Metropolitan Economy INDUSTRIES Producer services pick up the slack Producer services were the main source of job creation late in the year. After pausing for two quarters, employment was up by 7% in the fourth quarter of The situation was positive in all major sectors. Transportation, especially trucking and public transit, made a strong comeback. Trucking, which has been sideswiped by the troubles in the manufacturing industry caused by the strong dollar, made up some of the ground lost earlier in Air transportation has been soaring ever higher all year long. Employment by industry, Montréal CMA '000, seasonally adjusted N Professional services Trade Manufacturing Management and administrative support Most financial services were up in In the fourth quarter, insurance and pension funds provided the impetus. Pratt & Whitney Canada expanded its warranty program for aircraft engines. Management and security strong Management services, which had been sluggish for a year, boosted hiring by 6% in the fourth quarter. In 2006, office administrative services, janitorial services and security services all posted very strong growth in Security, traditionally a somewhat fragmented sector, is undergoing a wave of consolidation, driven mainly by Montréal s Garda and an expansion strategy that has taken the company to number five in the world. Spending on infrastructure spurs engineering Engineering firms have the wind in their sails. Strong growth in infrastructure and environmental work is stimulating demand for engineering services. At SNC Lavalin, Montréal s largest engineering consulting firm, the order book swelled by more than 65% between late 2004 and late N N N Finance, insurance, etc. Transportation and warehousing Health care Education Social assistance Information, culture and recreation Accounting services are also in great demand. Computer services, on the other hand, which had been one of the mainstays of the metropolitan economy in the 1990s, reduced their workforce slightly in At CGI Group, in particular, income was down by 6% in 2006, as a result of the drop in orders from BCE and the dollar s strength. The company cut 1,000 positions in Toronto and Montréal in Consumer services, which accounted for most growth in the third quarter, continued to expand slowly. Hiring was up in trade, in particular N Other services Accommodation and food services Construction Source: Statistics Canada

3 PROFILE : Employment and unemployment in major metropolitan areas Montréal s comeback has been stalled since 2002 Montréal catching up until 2002 The Montréal metropolitan area benefited from the prosperous 1990s to almost completely catch up with the rest of North America. The employment rate climbed from 58.6% in 1998 to 61.6% in 2002, bringing it nearly level with the continental average of 62.6%. Employment stagnating for four years Since then, job growth in Montréal has been flat, even though it picked up again in 2004 across North America; this put an end to Montréal s relative progress. At 61.7%, the employment rate has remained almost unchanged for five years. In 2006, Montréal ranked 20th of the 31 major metropolitan areas in North America in terms of employment rate. Residents of Canada s other metropolitan areas are more inclined to join the labour market. Aside from Montréal, they rank among the 50% of cities with the highest employment rates. Calgary, stimulated by the oil boom, is the champion its employment rate shot up by three percentage points in a single year, reaching 73.8% in The highest unemployment rate in North America Unemployment is higher in Canada than in the United States. Since 1989, Montréal has had the highest unemployment rate of all major metropolitan areas in North America. Toronto, suffering from restructuring by manufacturers trying to adjust to the strong dollar, has the third-highest rate. Although employment picked up in Montréal in the second half of 2006, reducing the pool of jobseekers, it is too early to speak of a sustainable recovery. Best in the West The West has fared much better in the new millennium. Calgary has the second-lowest unemployment rate, almost tied with Washington, DC for first place. Vancouver ranks 12th. Even Ottawa is improving; along with Chicago, this metropolitan area experienced the most notable drop in its unemployment rate in Despite the slowing US economy, the unemployment rate has been declining in all metropolitan areas except Boston and Detroit. The natural (non-accelerating inflation) unemployment rate, traditionally estimated at 5.5 to 6.0% in the US, has been revised downward to about 5%. In 2006, 23 of 31 metropolitan areas were below that threshold. Employment rate %, seasonally adjusted North America Montréal CMA Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Statistics Canada Unemployment rate %, seasonally adjusted North America Montréal CMA Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Statistics Canada Employment rate¹ (%) (%) Unemployment rate² Metropolitan Metropolitan area³ area³ Calgary Washington Minneapolis Calgary Ottawa Tampa Washington Miami Denver Phoenix Dallas Minneapolis Atlanta San Diego Portland Baltimore Boston San Francisco Seattle Denver Toronto Los Angeles Baltimore Vancouver Vancouver Chicago Houston New York Cincinnati Seattle Phoenix Atlanta San Francisco Boston Chicago Philadelphia St. Louis Sacramento Montréal Dallas Los Angeles Houston Cleveland Pittsburgh Philadelphia Riverside Sacramento St. Louis New York Portland San Diego Cincinnati Miami Ottawa Detroit Cleveland Riverside Toronto Tampa Detroit Pittsburgh Montréal Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (ACS) and Statistics Canada (LFS) 2. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS) and Statistics Canada (LFS) 3. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in the United States. 4th Quarter 2006

4 The Metropolitan Economy MANUFACTURING Manufacturing stabilizing Employment in manufacturing has hardly budged for a year and a half. The effects of the strong dollar and restructuring in some industries, such as clothing and communications equipment, have been hurting manufacturing in the Montréal metropolitan area. Aeronautics still flying high Aeronautics continues to grow. After shrinking by 20% in the spring of 2006, aerospace shipments expanded by 23% in the second half of the year. Most segments of the industry are expanding. Pratt & Whitney Canada, especially, is operating full out. In December 2006, the company announced R&D investment of $1.5 billion over five years to develop more powerful and more environmentally friendly engines. Only the regional aircraft niche is still soft. In October, Bombardier announced it was reducing production of the CRJ 900 and CRJ700 from 65 to 50 units a year. This meant job cuts of 1,130, including 485 in the metropolitan area. Production in many industries is stable. Shipments by the printing and textile and clothing industries were almost unchanged in Quebec shipments of food and beverages began to grow again in the second half of the year. Food manufacturers have had to cope with the rising cost of farm products and downward pressures on prices by supermarkets. The only surprise was the sudden surge (+81%) in the production of pharmaceuticals in the fourth quarter. Lastly, machine manufacturers were hiring in late Lower demand for electronic and metal products Many industries are still in difficult straits. Communications equipment and metal products are losing employees. The rising dollar and cost of raw materials are squeezing metal products producers. The Wolverine pipe plant in Montréal-Est announced it would be closing in early 2007, with a loss of 350 jobs. The drop in residential construction is reducing the demand for wood. Employment, manufact., Montréal CMA '000, seasonally adjusted Durable goods Non-durable goods Source: Statistics Canada Shipments, durable goods¹ $ billion 1997, at annual rate, seasonally adj. 12 Aircraft and parts Communications equipment 1. Quebec shipments for Montréal's major industries Source: Statistics Canada Shipments, non-durable goods¹ $ billion 1997, at annual rate, seasonally adj N Food and beverages Textile and clothing Printing Pharmaceuticals 1. Quebec shipments for Montréal's major industries Source: Statistics Canada 4

5 REGIONAL SECTORS Employment surge on Montréal Island Since producer services are concentrated downtown, the growth in employment was felt on Montréal Island. From the second to the fourth quarters of 2006, the employment rate for Island residents climbed from 58.6% to 60.8%, whereas in Laval it fell, and remained stable in the rest of the metropolitan area. The surge in employment in Montréal was also due to growth in trade, transportation, construction and information. There were more jobs in trade in Laval, as well, but that was offset by losses in health and social services, in other consumer services and in manufacturing. In the rest of the metropolitan area, weakness in manufacturing slowed the local economy, but education, health and social services were hiring. Employment rate %, seasonally adjusted 72 Longueuil, North and South shores 64 Laval Montréal Source: Statistics Canada Social dependency up outside of Montréal Despite economic growth in the past six months, the social dependency indicator 1 climbed by 0.9% in the fourth quarter in the Montréal metropolitan area. It was up in all areas of the metropolis, in fact, except on Montréal Island, where it has remained stable for the past three quarters. In other areas, the indicator began rising again after falling for two quarters. Bankruptcies level off The volatile labour market since 2001 has reduced consumers flexibility, and bankruptcies, which had been falling since the beginning of the decade in the metropolitan areas, have levelled off. The moderate increase in interest rates in 2006 pushed consumer bankruptcies up by 6%. Figures vary from one area to another. In Montréal, the number of consumer bankruptcies has been stable since 1999, fluctuating slightly around 1,500. On the North and South shores, they were trending downward until 2004, despite some jumps in 2001 and Setbacks in manufacturing have boosted the bankruptcy rate in the past two years. Laval and Longueuil have been the least hard hit, as consumer bankruptcies there dropped by 7% and 10%, respectively, between 1999 and (regular unemployment insurance recipients with no earnings and adult welfare recipients without employment restrictions) population ages 15 to 64. Social dependency indicator 1997=100, seasonally adjusted Montréal 59 Longueuil Laval South Sh. North Sh Sources: Statistics Canada, Emploi et Solidarité sociale-québec Consumer bankruptcies Number, seasonally adjusted 2000 Montréal North and South shores 500 Longueuil Laval 0 Source: Industry Canada 4th Quarter 2006

6 The Metropolitan Economy REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION Home sales hit a ceiling All indicators suggest the residential market is levelling off. The number of housing starts was down by 12% in 2005 and by 10% in Rental housing vacancy rates % 12 United States On the resale market, MLS sales have been stuck at 36,000 since 2001, a historically high level just the same. Supply continues to rise, however, with the number of listings up from 20,000 in late 2002 to 36,000 by late Growth in construction is absorbing the shortage of rental housing; the vacancy rate was among the lowest in North America (0.6%) in Rental housing construction, which had remained at 2,000 units per year, soared to 6,700 between 2002 and 2005, then fell back to 5,500 in The vacancy rate stood at 2.7% in late 2006, gradually approaching the equilibrium level (3%). The vacancy rate is similar elsewhere in Canada (2.6%) but three times higher in the United States (9.8%). The strong dollar hurting nonresidential real estate In the different real-estate sectors, Montréal is outperforming the American average but falling short of the Canadian average, as demand for raw materials is stimulating the Western economy. The strong dollar continues to slow the industrial real-estate market in the Montréal metropolitan area and Central Canada. The need for larger, more productive distribution facilities is stimulating construction nonetheless, and the result is a high industrial vacancy rate Canada Montréal CMA r Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, US Bureau of the Census Office vacancy rates % Montréal CMA United States Sources: CB Richard Ellis and Desjarlais Prévost Canada Demand for office space lags in the suburbs After absorbing the fallout when the techno-bubble burst, demand for office space began growing again in 2003, and vacancy rates shrank. While demand rose strongly in most Canadian metropolitan areas, though, it was growing only in fits and starts in Montréal. Difficulties in the manufacturing industry are holding back demand for office space in the suburbs. Elsewhere in Canada, demand for office space is climbing fast, but extensive construction offset falling vacancy rates in Industrial vacancy rates % 12 United States 8 Montréal CMA 4 Canada Source: CB Richard Ellis 6

7 INVESTMENT Slower residential construction limits capital expenditures After growing strongly in 2004, capital expenditures showed little change in 2005 and capital spending, as estimated by the Institut de la statistique du Québec, was expected to rise by less than 1% in constant dollars in the Montréal metropolitan area in This lacklustre outlook applies to both the private and public sectors. Firms buying equipment These overall figures obscure large differences, however, between types of spending. Purchases of machinery and equipment have continued to grow strongly since 2004 and rose by 8% in 2006, while construction, hit by the slowdown in housing starts, slipped by 7%. Capital expenditures, Montréal area¹ $ billion N Private Public p 06i 1. Montréal, Laval, Laurentides, Lanaudière and Montérégie. Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec, adjusted by the CMM Capital expenditures, Montréal area¹ $ billion Construction Machinery and equipment p 06i 1. Montréal, Laval, Laurentides, Lanaudière and Montérégie. Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec In manufacturing, spending on machinery and equipment is up in most industries. Investments in petrochemicals, however, a capital-intensive industry, are winding down, thereby reducing total machinery expenditures. In transportation equipment, too, spending on machinery, which had soared in 2005, was down in Telecommunications networks spread In services, investment in equipment is up in all sectors, with the exception of health and social services. Telecom firms, in particular, are investing to upgrade their networks and extend next-generation services, like wireless and high-speed Internet and Internet telephone and television. The strongest growth was in electricity and natural gas distributors, and entertainment and recreation firms. Capital expenditures by region and industry $ million Region and industry p 2006i Montréal CMA 18,713a 23,915 24,159 23,597 Primary industries Manufacturing and const. 2,280a 2,265 2,516 2,410 Food and beverages 240e 230e 250e 260e Textile and clothing 70e Wood 63e Pape r 129a Printing Chemical products Plastics and rubber Primary metal s 57a Fabricated metal product s 83e Machines 42e Electronic products Transportation equipment Other ind. and construction 762e 938e 1,158e 945e Services 9,150 12,387 12,761 12,585 Utilitie s ,079 Trade 1,220 1,250 1,267 1,291 Transportation 1,088 1,192 1,255 1,341 Information and culture Finance, ins. and real estate 1,402 3,188 2,812 2,830 Professional services Management of firms Education Health care and social ass Accomodation and food ser Entertainment and other ser Public administration 1,978 2,250 2,892 2,497 Housing 7,053 9,105 8,715 8,443 Administrative regions Montréal 10,661a 12,415 12,366 11,856 Laval 1,654 2,380 2,393 2,469 Laurentides and Lanaudière 5,607 6,496 6,334 6,326 Montérégie 7,388a 8,922a 9,028a 9,312a a: ISQ data adjusted by the CMM. e: estimate; p: Preliminary; i: Intentions. Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec 4th Quarter 2006

8 The Metropolitan Economy CONSUMPTION AND TOURISM Consumption levels off Retail sales, after climbing for two quarters, were flat late in the year in the metropolitan area. This was due mainly to sales at gasoline stations and sales of used cars. Dropping gas prices at year s end ate into revenues at gas stations. Consumers also cut back on purchases of food and clothing, although they did buy more furniture and pharmaceuticals. The strong labour market, low interest rates and household wealth through greater home equity have been the main engines driving consumption in the 2000s. In 2006, however, two of these factors began fading, as real estate prices slipped and interest rates rose slightly. On the other hand, employment picked up in the second half of the year. The cooler residential market is likely to make households feel a bit poorer and reduce demand for housing-related goods, from home appliances to furniture. The job market and credit conditions should continue to support consumer spending, however. Wages stable Wages have moved up very little. In the metropolitan area, they did not budge in real terms in 2005 and 2006, although they accelerated in the rest of the country, particularly the West. They rose by 1.4% per year in constant dollars in Canada as a whole. The natural resources boom in Alberta has stimulated demand for labour and wages. Tourism weak The tourism industry remains stuck in neutral. The number of foreign tourists and occupancy rates climbed only slightly in the fourth quarter. Food services are beginning to feel the slowdown in consumer spending and especially stagnant tourist numbers. After five years of constant growth, restaurants are starting to see sales weaken in Quebec. Restaurants with services, which depend more on tourism than fast-food outlets, are suffering the most. Retail sales¹, Montréal CMA $ billion, at annual rate, seasonally adjusted Data prior to 2004 is estimated Source: Statistics weekly wages % change, constant dollars Canada Source: Statistics Canada Tourism %, seasonally adj Montréal CMA '000, at annual rate, seasonally adj. 3.2 Tourists entering Quebec Hotel occupancy rate in Montréal Sources: Hotel Ass. of Greater Montreal and Statistics Canada

9 Quarterly economic indicators for the Montréal CMA Seasonally adjusted Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Labour market Labour force '000 1,967 1,979 1,974 1,983 1,988 1,982 2,008 2,010 2,020 2,012 2,034 2,041 Employment '000 1,797 1,816 1,802 1,803 1,823 1,813 1,834 1,824 1,831 1,842 1,868 1,885 Employment rate % Unemployment rate % Unemployment insurance (1,3) ' Welfare recipients (1,4,e) ' Real estate Building permits $M 1,530 1,560 1,430 1,710 1,360 1,450 1,600 1,390 1,380 1,490 1,500 1,660 Housing starts Number 6,900 7,800 6,500 7,200 5,500 6,600 6,900 6,100 5,700 5,000 5,100 6,800 Residential sales (SIA/MLS,1) Number 12,000 12,500 12,700 12,100 11,500 12,800 13,600 12,100 12,000 13,000 13,200 12,300 Other Retail sales (1) $M 8,908 8,930 9,192 9,238 9,331 9,521 9,568 9,701 9,727 9,861 10,025 10,035 Port traffic, total (1) '000 t 5,577 5,959 5,773 6,329 6,668 5,867 5,915 6,013 6,365 6,241 6,299 6,254 Container (1) '000 t 2,594 2,620 2,802 2,836 2,915 2,725 2,684 2,814 2,800 2,880 2,778 2,882 Airport traffic (1) '000 pass. 2,514 2,579 2,606 2,641 2,712 2,724 2,719 2,750 2,801 2,899 2,784 2,982 Hotel occupancy rate (1) Av., % Not seasonally adjusted Labour market Labour force '000 1,946 1,984 1,994 1,979 1,966 1,985 2,030 2,008 1,998 2,014 2,056 2,040 Employment '000 1,771 1,823 1,821 1,804 1,796 1,818 1,854 1,826 1,804 1,847 1,889 1,888 Employment rate % Unemployment rate % Unemployment insurance (3) ' Welfare recipients (4,e) ' Employment by industry Construction ' Manufacturing ' Durable goods ' Non durable goods ' Trade ' Transportation and warehousing ' Finance, ins., real est. and leasing ' Professional, sc. and tech. serv. ' Management and adm. support ' Education ' Health care and social assistance ' Information, culture and recreation ' Accommodation and food serv. ' Other services ' Public administration ' Construction Housing starts Number 5,492 9,432 6,340 7,409 4,416 7,579 6,703 6,619 4,825 5,662 4,914 7,412 Building permits $M 1,306 1,772 1,370 1,784 1,161 1,690 1,554 1,434 1,222 1,704 1,431 1,677 Residential 917 1, , ,216 1,062 1, , ,132 Commercial Industrial Institutional and governmental Real estate Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 14,391 14,320 9,699 10,797 13,903 14,791 10,383 10,811 14,479 14,957 10,052 10,976 Vacancy rate, rental housing % Vacancy rate, office % Downtown % Suburbs % Vacancy rate, industrial % Prices and interest rates Consumer price index 1992= Increase over 1 year % Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $ Mortgage rate - 5 years %, end Other Retail sales, $M 7,787 9,646 9,281 9,567 8,163 10,280 9,660 10,049 8,515 10,650 10,121 10,397 Bankruptcies, consumer Number 2,965 2,905 2,753 2,779 2,801 2,889 2,640 2,822 3,106 2,956 2,778 2,951 Bankruptcies, business Number Bankruptcies, total liabilities $M e Port traffic, total '000 t 4,645 6,382 6,150 6,460 5,621 6,270 6,333 6,120 5,333 6,649 6,751 6,369 Container '000 t 2,469 2,737 2,759 2,886 2,790 2,842 2,641 2,865 2,675 2,997 2,735 2,932 Airport traffic '000 pass. 2,486 2,541 2,928 2,381 2,680 2,684 3,050 2,479 2,770 2,855 3,122 2,684 Hotel occupancy rate % Notes and sources at the end of the tables 4th Quarter 2006

10 The Metropolitan Economy Quarterly economic indicators for Montréal and Laval Montréal Seasonally adjusted (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Social dependency indicator (2) % Unemployment insurance (3) ' Welfare recipients (4) ' Not seasonally adjusted Labour market Labour force ' ,012 1,029 1,024 1,019 1,030 1,045 1,031 1,032 1,040 1,061 1,050 Employment ' Employment rate % Unemployment rate % Social dependency indicator (2) % Unemployment insurance (3) ' Welfare recipients (4) ' Real estate and construction Housing starts Number 2,160 3,362 2,445 2,845 1,478 2,213 2,678 2,166 1, ,303 3,128 Building permits $M Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional and governmental Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 4,290 4,392 2,760 3,150 4,012 4,496 3,005 3,215 4,081 4,502 2,814 3,359 Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $ Vacancy rate, office % Consumer bankruptcies Number 1,600 1,537 1,473 1,577 1,547 1,520 1,312 1,460 1,602 1,502 1,477 1,485 Laval Seasonally adjusted (1) Social dependency indicator (2) % Unemployment insurance (3) ' Welfare recipients (4) ' Not seasonally adjusted Labour market Labour force ' Employment ' Employment rate % Unemployment rate % Social dependency indicator (2) % Unemployment insurance (3) ' Welfare recipients (4) ' Real estate and construction Housin g starts Number 630 1, , Building permits $M Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional and governmental Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 1,303 1, ,231 1, ,038 1,376 1, Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $ Vacancy rate, office % Consumer bankruptcies Number Notes and sources at the end of the tables Quarterly economic indicators for Longueuil, the North and South Shores 10 Longueuil, North and South Shores Not seasonally adjusted Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Labour market (incl. Longueuil) Labour force ' Employment ' Employment rate % Unemployment rate % Consumer bankruptcie s (Longueuil excl.) Number

11 Quarterly economic indicators for Longueuil, the North and South Shores (cont'd) Longueuil Seasonally adjusted (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Social dependency indicator (2,7) % Unemployment insurance (3,7) ' Welfare recipients (4,5,7) ' Not seasonally adjusted Social dependency indicator (2,7) % Unemployment insurance (3,7) ' Welfare recipients (4,5,7) ' Real estate and construction Housing starts Number Building permits $M Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional and governmental Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 1,161 1, ,071 1, ,130 1, Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $ Vacancy rate, office % Consumer bankruptcies Number South Shore Seasonally adjusted (1) Social dependency indicator (2,8) % Unemployment insurance (3,8) ' Welfare recipients (4,5,8) ' Not seasonally adjusted Social dependency indicator (2,8) % Unemployment insurance (3,8) ' Welfare recipients (4,5,8) ' Real estate and construction Housing starts Number 872 1,597 1,135 1, , , , Building permits $M Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional and governmental Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 2,055 1,813 1,274 1,428 2,043 1,890 1,363 1,347 2,103 1,935 1,357 1,412 Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $ North Shore Seasonally adjusted (1) Social dependency indicator (2,9) % Unemployment insurance (3,9) ' Welfare recipients (4,5,9) ' Not seasonally adjusted Social dependency indicator (2,9) % Unemployment insurance (3,9) ' Welfare recipients (4,5,9) ' Real estate and construction Housing starts Number 1,493 2,624 1,764 1,932 1,605 2,459 1,748 1,936 1,325 2,252 1,139 2,381 Building permits $M Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional and governmental Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 2,110 1,919 1,223 1,461 2,074 1,982 1,345 1,462 2,508 2,464 1,524 1,811 Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $ Seasonally adjusted by the CMM. 2. Social dependency indicator = 100 (regular unemployment-insurance recipients with no earnings and adult welfare recipients without employment restrictions) population aged 15 to Regular unemployment-insurance recipients with no earnings. 4. Adult welfare recipients without employment restrictions. 5. Last month of the quarter. 6. According to the Montréal CMA boundaries. 7. Former RCM of Champlain (equivalent to Longueuil without Boucherville and Saint-Bruno). 8. Sum of the RCMs of La Vallée-du-Richelieu, Lajemmerais, Roussillon and Vaudreuil-Soulanges. 9. Sum of the RCMs of Deux-Montagnes, Thérèse-De Blainville, Mirabel, L'Assomption and Les Moulins. 10. sales in Boucherville and Saint-Bruno, and plex sales in Brossard, Greenfield-Park and Saint-Lambert included in the South Shore and not in Longueuil. e. Estimate. Sources: Statistics Canada; Emploi et Solidarité sociale - Québec; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; Bank of Canada; CB Richard Ellis; Industry Canada; Hotel Association of Greater Montreal; Greater Montréal Real Estate Board; Desjarlais Prévost; Port of Montreal and Aéroports de Montréal 4th Quarter

12 The Metropolitan Economy Annual economic indicators for the Montréal CMA Population and production Population '000 3, , , , , , , , ,609.8 Net migration ' Manufacturing shipments $M 44,545 48,469 48,396 55,287 69,602 65,456 64,467 63,651 65,050e Exports, Greater M'ontreal region (4) $M 24,465 39,309 34,221 32,010 29,025 29,173e Labour market Labour force '000 1,723 1,738 1,775 1,799 1,820 1,854 1,928 1,976 1,976 Employment '000 1,516 1,546 1,602 1,642 1,677 1,700 1,763 1,788 1,805 Employment rate % Unemployment rate % Unemployment insurance (1) ' Welfare (2,e) ' Capital expenditures Montréal CMA (3) $M 20,142³ 19,515³ 18,713³ 23,915 Greater Montréal region (3,4) $M 14,563 17,606 21,139³ 21,295³ 21,650³ 23,397³ 24,831³ 25,310³ 30,213³ Construction 7,936 8,993 10,470³ 9,627³ 10,307³ 12,045³ 14,304³ 15,584³ 18,572³ Machinery and equipment 6,626 8,612 10,669³ 11,668³ 11,343³ 11,352³ 10,528³ 9,726³ 11,550³ Private 10,981 14,677 16,599³ 17,440³ 17,739³ 19,137³ 19,938³ 20,204³ 24,727³ Public 3,582 2,929 4,539 3,854 3,910 4,260 4,893 5,106 5,486 Manufacturing and construction 2,572 2,960 3,296³ 3,462³ 3,551³ 3,702³ 3,345³ 3,232³ 2,976³ Services 8,100 9,944 13,298 12,231 12,680 13,128 12,805 12,354 14,917 Construction Housing starts Number 7,556 10,508 10,293 12,366 12,766 13,300 20,554 24,321 28,673 Homeownership 5,282 6,978 6,712 7,439 7,551 7,868 11,600 11,702 12,177 Condominium 1,525 2,464 2,765 3,219 3,539 3,763 5,687 7,893 10,053 Rental 749 1, ,708 1,676 1,669 3,267 4,726 6,443 Building permits $M ,009 2,414 2,729 2,820 2,970 3,799 4,036 4,510 5,046 Residential 992 1,217 1,288 1,477 1,503 1,700 2,385 2,939 3,514 Commercial Industrial Institutional and governmental Building permits $M 1,955 2,414 2,782 2,935 3,240 4,218 4,604 5,278 6,233 Residential 966 1,217 1,311 1,536 1,638 1,892 2,731 3,453 4,357 Commercial Industrial Institutional and governmental Real estate Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 21,816 24,653 25,254 27,935 29,555 33,984 36,295 35,323 36,022 Vacancy rate, rental housing %, year-end Vacancy rate, office %, year-end Downtown %, year-end Suburbs %, year-end Vacancy rate, industrial %, year-end Prices, wages and interest rates Consumer price index 1992= Increase in 1 year % weekly wages $ Residential prices (SIA/MLS) '000 $ Monthly rent, 2-bedroom apt $ Mortgage rate, 5 years %, year-end Other Retail sales, $M 23,470 25,810 27,260 28,860 30,350 31,420 33,050 34,850 36,281 Constant dollars $M ,253 28,488 29,630 30,866 31,714 32,061 33,050 34,033 34,752 Bankruptcies, consumer Number 13,289 14,294 12,730 11,676 11,563 12,096 10,869 11,212 11,397 Bankruptcies, business Number 2,310 1,705 1,483 1,354 1,231 1, Bankruptcies, total liabilities $M 1,928 1,781 2,065 1,530 1,502 1,822 1,743 1,916 1,380 Port traffic, total M tonnes Container M tonnes Airport traffic M pass Hotel occupancy rate % Regular unemployment-insurance recipients with no earnings. 2. Adult welfare recipients without employment restrictions. 3. ISQ data adjusted by the CMM from 1998 to Island of Montréal, Laval, Laurentides, Lanaudière and Montérégie. e. Estimate. Sources: Statistics Canada; Institut de la statistique du Québec; Emploi et Solidarité sociale - Québec; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; Desjarlais Prévost; CB Richard Ellis; Bank of Canada; Industry Canada; Port of Montreal; Aéroports de Montréal; Hotel Ass. of Greater Montréal.

13 Employment by industry in the Montréal CMA ('000) All industries 1,516 1,546 1,602 1,642 1,677 1,700 1,763 1,788 1,805 1,824 1,857 Primary industries Utilities Construction Manufacturing Non-durable goods Food, beverages and tobacco Textile and textile products Clothing and leather products Paper Printing Chemical and petrochemical products Plastics and rubber Durable goods Wood products Non-metallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical products Transportation equipment Furniture Other manufacturing Trade Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Air transportation Truck transportation Transit and sightseeing transportation Couriers and postal services Other transp. and warehousing Finance, insurance and real estate Finance Insurance, funds and other finance Real estate Rental and leasing Professional services Legal services Architecture, engineering, ind. design Computer systems design Management and scient. consulting Other professional services Management of firms Employment services Management of firms Education Elementary and secondary schools Other - education Health care and social assistance Ambulatory health care Hospitals Nursing and residential care Social assistance Information, culture and recreation Information and culture Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Repair and maintenance Personal and laundry services Associations and religious organizations Private households Public administration Federal government Provincial government Local government th Quarter 2006 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 13

14 The Metropolitan Economy Population of the Communauté métropolitaine de Montréal by municipality ('000) Communauté métropolitaine de Montréal 3,309,043 3,323,675 3,338,091 3,363,385 3,395,233 3,428,432 3,466,820 3,497,229 3,525,480 3,551,289 3,579,435 Montréal, aggl. 1,799,296 1,800,089 1,801,583 1,814,366 1,832,500 1,851,746 1,867,278 1,872,782 1,873,805 1,872,344 1,873,971 Baie-D'Urfé 3,792 3,763 3,734 3,767 3,838 3,896 3,907 3,896 3,958 3,950 3,974 Beaconsfield 19,589 19,395 19,335 19,383 19,403 19,726 19,921 20,046 20,150 20,247 20,263 Côte-Saint-Luc 29,974 29,573 29,167 29,361 29,703 30,895 31,288 31,536 31,685 31,738 32,267 Dollard-Des Ormeaux 48,361 48,145 48,191 48,466 48,762 49,244 49,884 50,387 50,654 50,668 50,633 Dorval 17,777 17,708 17,749 17,868 17,881 18,087 18,241 18,284 18,280 18,282 18,487 Hampstead 7,043 6,887 6,855 6,844 6,854 7,124 7,129 7,178 7,219 7,257 7,176 Kirkland 18,841 19,134 19,426 19,744 20,250 20,874 21,205 21,552 21,699 21,679 21,660 L'Île-Dorval Montréal 1,571,630 1,573,228 1,575,226 1,586,771 1,602,946 1,617,680 1,630,756 1,634,704 1,634,835 1,633,266 1,633,667 Montréal-Est 3,548 3,519 3,469 3,536 3,595 3,624 3,625 3,529 3,790 3,883 3,914 Montral-West 5,280 5,237 5,267 5,301 5,294 5,283 5,311 5,335 5,311 5,335 5,331 Mont-Royal 18,465 18,361 18,276 18,296 18,508 19,084 19,315 19,489 19,368 19,345 19,479 Pointe-Claire 28,730 28,946 28,825 28,966 29,168 29,916 30,316 30,421 30,530 30,599 30,996 Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue 4,744 4,881 4,940 4,915 5,058 5,170 5,230 5,317 5,327 5,376 5,236 Senneville ,022 1,040 1,027 1,031 1,056 Westmount 20,617 20,414 20,225 20,209 20,278 20,152 20,127 20,066 19,970 19,686 19,830 Laval 334, , , , , , , , , , ,845 Longueuil, aggl. 378, , , , , , , , , , ,139 Boucherville 35,448 35,746 36,037 36,493 36,795 36,981 37,354 37,640 38,059 38,589 38,832 Brossard 66,760 66,151 66,011 65,668 65,880 66,340 67,270 68,555 70,065 71,398 73,076 Longueuil 230, , , , , , , , , , ,984 Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville 24,046 24,086 24,046 24,152 24,291 24,311 24,381 24,561 24,588 24,569 24,526 Saint-Lambert 21,204 21,178 21,192 21,428 21,340 21,477 21,644 21,749 21,858 21,780 21,721 Couronne Sud 373, , , , , , , , , , ,880 Beauharnois 11,654 11,755 11,718 11,620 11,687 11,685 11,737 11,732 11,873 12,000 12,004 Beloeil 19,558 19,578 19,636 19,619 19,524 19,427 19,385 19,293 19,433 19,426 19,425 Calixa-Lavallée Candiac 11,973 12,216 12,338 12,436 12,752 12,928 13,323 13,838 14,384 14,847 15,280 Carignan 5,676 5,760 5,788 5,809 5,881 6,031 6,032 6,295 6,598 6,911 7,244 Chambly 20,029 20,273 20,344 20,536 20,634 20,743 20,888 21,184 21,592 22,330 22,999 Châteauguay 41,978 41,954 42,025 41,973 42,037 41,819 42,080 42,395 42,877 43,121 43,520 Contrecoeur 5,384 5,291 5,259 5,265 5,277 5,326 5,335 5,403 5,496 5,612 5,672 Delson 6,787 6,972 7,063 7,070 7,160 7,163 7,172 7,227 7,293 7,371 7,493 Hudson 4,836 4,776 4,780 4,827 4,848 4,890 5,007 5,044 5,148 5,212 5,261 La Prairie 17,381 17,936 18,325 18,845 19,027 19,271 19,710 20,229 20,967 21,580 22,174 Léry 2,426 2,394 2,383 2,416 2,380 2,425 2,392 2,356 2,377 2,365 2,350 Les Cèdres 4,707 4,999 5,127 5,183 5,237 5,228 5,430 5,538 5,681 5,862 5,887 L'Île-Cadieux L'Île-Perrot 9,329 9,338 9,368 9,426 9,429 9,559 9,698 9,812 9,963 10,166 10,221 McMasterville 3,857 3,925 3,964 4,020 4,009 4,063 4,094 4,225 4,507 4,773 5,080 Mercier 9,173 9,322 9,585 9,662 9,729 9,630 9,768 9,964 10,113 10,216 10,319 Mont-Saint-Hilaire 13,242 13,507 13,654 14,102 14,320 14,549 14,818 15,179 15,442 15,819 16,199 Notre-Dame-de-l'Île-Perrot 7,162 7,435 7,761 8,139 8,376 8,714 8,971 9,251 9,559 9,818 9,948 Otterburn Park 7,420 7,563 7,764 7,906 7,967 8,020 8,234 8,363 8,525 8,695 8,705 Pincourt 10,165 10,074 10,042 10,056 10,129 10,306 10,431 10,513 10,576 10,999 11,522 Pointe-des-Cascades ,018 1,078 Richelieu 4,783 4,858 4,906 4,930 5,013 4,944 5,244 5,434 5,616 5,647 5,712 Saint-Amable 7,213 7,368 7,439 7,440 7,457 7,424 7,559 7,618 7,778 8,149 8,484 Saint-Basile-le-Grand 11,949 12,134 12,413 12,519 12,511 12,628 13,135 13,802 14,510 15,099 15,389 Saint-Constant 22,258 22,536 22,702 22,886 23,044 23,025 23,590 24,167 24,511 24,646 24,981 Sainte-Catherine 13,937 14,551 15,071 15,528 15,763 16,270 16,400 16,537 16,689 16,748 16,878 Sainte-Julie 24,400 25,001 25,682 26,265 26,784 27,115 27,773 28,352 28,693 29,047 29,208 Saint-Isidore 2,420 2,400 2,384 2,375 2,417 2,418 2,448 2,463 2,463 2,473 2,491 Saint-Jean-Baptiste 2,956 2,945 2,890 2,868 2,814 2,757 2,732 2,781 2,852 2,874 2,906 Saint-Lazare 11,360 11,707 12,043 12,321 12,790 13,148 13,826 14,492 15,304 16,010 16,652 Saint-Mathias-sur-Richelieu 4,074 4,165 4,194 4,241 4,272 4,229 4,227 4,185 4,310 4,446 4,492 Saint-Mathieu 1,938 1,964 1,960 1,933 1,983 2,000 1,975 1,982 2,028 2,030 1,986 Saint-Mathieu-de-Beloeil 2,159 2,175 2,209 2,217 2,211 2,280 2,326 2,356 2,349 2,381 2,416 Saint-Philippe 3,693 3,679 3,747 3,813 3,868 3,969 4,068 4,167 4,439 4,756 5,002 Terrasse-Vaudreuil 1,998 2,007 1,997 1,998 2,022 2,088 2,104 2,130 2,102 2,093 2,041 Varennes 19,130 19,572 19,801 19,935 19,887 20,049 20,415 20,362 20,539 20,641 20,672 Vaudreuil-Dorion 18,772 18,771 18,991 19,402 19,801 20,310 21,217 22,123 23,387 24,675 26,252 Vaudreuil-sur-le-Lac ,007 1,061 1,093 Verchères 4,903 4,863 4,883 4,790 4,862 4,879 4,878 4,875 5,059 5,111 5,197 14